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Henderson Alvarez: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

By on March 1, 2012 | Comments { 2 }

Typically, I’m hesitant to endorse pitchers in the AL East. It’s been written time and time again, but pitching in that division is the baseball equivalent of Sisyphus pushing the boulder up the hill.

But that doesn’t mean success is strictly prohibited. Last season we saw Jeremy Hellickson post an ERA under 3.00 in his rookie season (even though it was mostly fueled by luck) and many are betting on Matt Moore to do the same this season.

Henderson Alvarez isn’t in Moore’s class based on raw talent, but he has a significant chance of becoming a useful fantasy pitcher even if he has to do it in baseball’s toughest division. Alvarez doesn’t have the strikeout numbers, striking out just 6.53 batters per nine innings in his 405 minor league innings and 5.32 per nine in his 63 2/3 innings with Toronto last season, but he boasts astonishingly elite walk and ground ball rates which will certainly help counter his lack of strikeout punch.

How good are his walk and ground ball rates? He walked just 1.73 batters per nine innings in the minors and followed that up with a rate of 1.13 BB/9 in the majors, and his ground ball rates have consistently been over 50 percent through his extensive minor league and brief major league careers.

Speaking from a fantasy perspective, those elite rates do two things: ensure a low WHIP and a low home run rate, which in turn (generally) results in a low ERA. Alvarez won’t be a force for strikeouts, especially because he’ll likely be on an innings limit this season that could cap him around 160-170 (he’s just 21 years old), but he did throw 160 innings last season.

If last season’s stats mean anything, Alvarez could post an ERA around 3.50. His 3.53 ERA last season should probably have been lower since he suffered through a 15.1 percent HR/FB rate, which will surely drop despite the fact that he plays his home games in the Rogers Centre, but on the other end of the spectrum his 1.13 BB/9 was probably unsustainably low. Something closer to 2.00 is likely, but that should still mean a WHIP no worse than 1.20, and for an undrafted player that’s exceedingly valuable.

Now, how about some player comparisons? These are all the players in the last 10 years (since 2002) with walk rates under 2.00 BB/9 and ground ball rates over 50 percent in any given season. I’ve also provided their ERAs, xFIPs, WHIPs and xFIP- (xFIP compared to the league average since we’ve seen a massive offensive correction over the last decade…and lower is better).

PlayerYearBB/9GB%K/9xFIPERAWHIPxFIP-
Roy Halladay20111.3550.98.472.712.351.0469
Cole Hamels20111.8352.38.083.022.790.9977
Chris Carpenter20051.9054.57.932.932.831.0668
Roy Halladay20101.0851.27.862.802.441.0469
Roy Halladay20091.3250.27.833.002.791.1370
Roy Halladay20081.4353.77.543.112.781.0572
Chris Carpenter20041.8852.27.523.363.411.1475
Chris Carpenter20061.7553.37.473.363.091.0774
Andy Pettitte20051.6650.26.923.152.391.0374
Roy Halladay20031.0858.46.902.963.251.0767
Roy Halladay20051.1460.96.862.892.410.9668
Brandon Webb20061.9166.36.823.033.181.1367
Chris Carpenter20091.7855.06.733.342.241.0177
Greg Maddux20041.4050.96.393.404.021.1876
Derek Lowe20081.9260.36.273.323.241.1377
Mark Mulder20031.9355.76.173.443.131.1878
Roy Halladay20071.9253.15.553.853.711.2486
Greg Maddux20051.4451.65.443.574.241.2283
Roy Halladay20061.3957.35.403.453.191.1076
Derek Lowe20021.9766.85.203.442.580.9781
Greg Maddux20031.3650.75.113.693.961.1884
Greg Maddux20061.5950.75.013.854.201.2285
Carl Pavano20101.5151.24.763.863.751.1995
Greg Maddux20071.1451.54.733.904.141.2487
Joel Pineiro20091.1460.54.423.643.491.1484
Carl Pavano20111.6250.64.144.144.301.36105
Carlos Silva20041.4050.53.374.524.211.43101

The above table was sorted by K/9 because it became obvious that strikeout rate and xFIP- were closely connected. Assuming that Alvarez becomes a member of this class of pitchers, or maybe just misses it, we can now approximate his xFIP (FIP independent of HR/FB rate) based on his likely strikeout rate. Because we project Alvarez for a strikeout rate around 5.75, that would put his xFIP- at about 82 (right between Mark Mulder in 2003 and Roy Halladay in 2007).

Last season the league average ERA was 3.94, just lower than the 2010 average of 4.07. For the sake of safe projecting, let’s assume the 2012 league average ERA falls in the middle, 4.00. With an xFIP- of 82, Alvarez’s projected xFIP this season is 3.28. But, since he plays in Toronto, a homer-friendly venue, we need to adjust this xFIP. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a FIP (4.27) that was 6.93 percent higher than the team average xFIP (3.99). If we apply that to Alvarez’s projected 3.28 xFIP, we get a projected FIP of 3.51.

If we look at the chart above one last time, we’ll see that the pitchers whom Alvarez will likely share a common strikeout rate tended to have WHIPs around 1.18, so that’s a pretty good projection for his 2012 WHIP in my mind.

Let’s assume nine wins in 161 innings, a 3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 103 strikeouts. That season would yield a 0.08 PSR, making Alvarez one of the best free agent starting pitcher options in 10-team leagues and a low-end starter for any team’s rotation in deeper leagues. Alvarez probably doesn’t have the potential to be a real breakout candidate due to his low strikeout rate, but he should be a safe starter for the 2012 season.

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Brad Peacock: 2012 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 26, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

As a National, Brad Peacock was on the outside looking in. His talent was never in doubt, but no one could be sure whether he’d be a member of the Washington rotation out of camp or how long it would take once the season got underway. As an Athletic, Peacock is assured a rotation spot. That’s what happens when a rotation is left without its top four options (Brad Anderson, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez). Peacock’s fantasy value will be on the rise.

How good can he be in Oakland? First we need to define what kind of pitcher Peacock is.

Brad Peacock Player Profile

Peacock has two pitches that currently profile as plus-offerings: a 92-94 MPH fastball and a strikeout-caliber curveball that I’ve even seen some refer to as a knuckle curve. In his very brief time in the majors last season (12 IP), Peacock threw these two pitches plus a change-up, throwing the fastball 65 percent of the time (average 92.7 MPH), the curve 13 percent of the time (74.7 MPH) and the change-up 22 percent of the time (82.5 MPH).

It’s an extremely small sample size, and Peacock’s ERA/FIP relationship (0.75/3.86) with the Nats shows the dangers of looking at just the stats of a small sample, but the 10-MPH gap between his fastball and change-up is very promising. When evaluating pitchers, one of the firsts I look at is the gap in velocities between their fastball and change-up, and I usually hope for something at least eight-plus. Peacock’s 10 is great.

In his minor league career, Peacock has had moderate control problems. His 3.11 BB/9 in the minors is higher than I would like, however that number is inflated by some struggles early in his professional career. Before getting promoted to triple-A last season, Peacock had walked just 24 batters in 98 2/3 innings (2.19 BB/9) but then he matched those 24 walks with triple-A Syracuse in just 48 innings (4.50 BB/9).

The good news is that Peacock’s strikeout rate has been on the rise. His overall minor league rate of 8.3 K/9 is good-but-not eye-popping, but since the start of 2010 Peacock has posted a strikeout rate of 10.13 K/9.

In 2010, Peacock was a slight ground ball pitcher according to Statcorner.com, but he became a slight fly ball pitcher in 2011. In those 12 major league innings last year, Peacock was a rather extreme fly ball pitcher (60.5%) but that’s too small a sample size to really draw any conclusions. Either way, he’s never been heavily reliant on the ground ball, and that style will play well in Oakland where he calls the Coliseum his home and he’ll get to make frequent trips to Safeco Field and Angel Stadium. Texas will trip him up, but it would be unwise to play almost any young starter against Texas.

As far as workload goes, Peacock threw 142 innings in 2010 and another 158 2/3 more last season. Most clubs like to minimize the increase in innings for starters under 25, usually adding no more than 30 (Verducci Effect), and that would put the 24-year-old Peacock at a max of 188 2/3 innings this season. Frankly, I’d be surprised if we were worrying about an innings cap at the end of the season because it’s very unlikely he’ll push 190 innings.

Brad Peacock 2012 Projection

In recent seasons Peacock has had improved control and improved strikeout rates. While his control is still a work in progress and will likely leave him at times, he should have just as many dominating efforts to help balance it out. Like any youngster he’ll be prone to erratic performances that will leave head-to-head leaguers frustrated, but in roto leagues he’ll end the year with a nice stat line that will provide good bang for your buck, especially considering his likely free agent status in most leagues at the start of the season.

Because sleepers are players that have low expectations but high ceilings, I like to give them two projections: the safe projection (what they’ll most likely end up doing) and a best-case projection (what they could be expected to do if almost everything breaks right).

  • Safe Projection: 160 IP, 10 W, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 145 K
  • Best-case Projection: 185 IP, 13 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K
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Juan Nicasio: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

By on February 5, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

One of my favorite time-killing activities is looking through MLB team depth charts. I’m a very forgetful person, and with 750 players in the majors at any given moment (and another 450 rounding out each team’s 40-man roster) there are a lot of players who just sort of slip my mind.

Juan Nicasio was one of these players. Then, one day last week, I was looking at the Colorado Rockies depth chart when Nicasio’s name stood out to me. I had completely forgotten about him. I’d forgotten how great he was in the minors, how elite his walk rates were and how excited I was when he was called up. I even forgot he was hit in the head by a line drive, fell to the ground, smashed his head on the mound, broke his neck and had a metal plate inserted to fix it.

Now Nicasio’s back, and he’s a prime 2012 fantasy baseball sleeper. (Note: like most of our posts I back up why I projected Nicasio as well as I did, but that makes these posts kind of lengthy. Feel free to skip to the end to get to our projection.)

How many innings will he throw?

Apparently Nicasio was throwing to hitters behind an L-screen back in the Dominican Republic in January, and he’s projected to be in the Rockies’ rotation out of spring training this season. He threw 177 1/3 innings in high-A ball in 2010 and was on pace for almost 190 last season split between double-A and the majors, so he’s not one of the many young starters who’ll be on an innings limit in their first full season.

Of course, the rehab from surgery to insert a plate in your neck probably limits your ability to keep your arm in tip-top shape, but assuming Nicasio is ready in time for spring training and can devote himself to getting his strength back, I don’t see a reason he can’t throw 180 innings for the Rockies this season.

What about his ERA and WHIP?

And, if his minor league numbers shed any light on the kind of pitcher Nicasio is, those 180 innings could be very valuable. He’s a fastball-first pitcher with good velocity (94.1 mph last season) and great control (1.99 BB/9 in the minors, 2.26 for the Rockies last season). In his 71 2/3 innings in the majors, he induced ground balls 45.9 percent of the time and allowed fly balls just 32.1 percent of the time. His HR/FB rate (11.4%) was a little high, but that’s not an unusual rate for a pitcher that calls Coors Field home.

Even though Nicasio’s 3.65 FIP was noticeably lower than his 4.14 ERA, I’d caution not to get too excited about the difference. His 22.0 percent line drive rate allowed last year was very high and led to a BABIP of just .304. With a line drive rate that high, we could have expected his BABIP to be higher. However, even though opponents hit .261 off him (league average was .251), his low homer and walk rates neutralize much of the damage those extra hits cause. In terms of opponents’ OPS, Nicasio’s .735 OPS against was exactly league average.

Assuming Nicasio maintains that low-2.00s walk rate in 2012 and posts a similar .261 OBA (which might even be high but is probably a safe estimate), he’d end up with a WHIP somewhere around 1.25. That’s far from great, but a 1.25 WHIP would have ranked 43rd of the 98 pitchers who threw at least 160 innings last season.

If I had to project Nicasio’s 2012 ERA, and since I’m writing this post I pretty much have to, I’d say something around 4.00 is likely. However, because we’re touting Nicasio as a buy-low sleeper, someone you can probably get undrafted well into April even if he starts hot, let’s say he could post a 3.50 ERA or maybe slightly better.

Strikeouts and wins?

Nicasio’s strikeout total has plenty of room to grow as well. Last season with the Rockies, Nicasio struck out 7.28 batters per nine innings, but his career minor league rate was 8.92. In three of his last four stops in the minors, he averaged over a strikeout per inning. I don’t think I need to tell you how many Ks Nicasio would end up with if he struck out nearly a batter per inning over 180 innings (hint: around 180), but for now it’s safe to project him for around 7.50 K/9. That rate over 180 innings would yield 150 strikeouts.

Colorado has a pretty solid offense that ranked eighth in the league in runs last season and is expected to perform just as well again. With solid run support, 180 innings of Nicasio would likely win between 10 and 14 games. Last season Jhoulys Chacin won 11 games over 194 innings of 3.62-ERA ball.

Projecting and ranking Nicasio

Let’s provide three projections for Nicasio’s 2012 season: the likely projection (i.e. pretty safe but still assumes health), the sleeper projection (i.e. what he could reasonably be expected to produce if things start to break right) and the best-case projection (i.e. absolutely everything breaks right)

  • Likely projection: 150 IP, 10 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 120 Ks
  • Sleeper projection: 170 IP, 12 W, 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 145 Ks
  • Best-case projection: 190 IP, 14 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 180 Ks

The likely projection would yield a PSR of -0.22, which would have ranked 260th last season (we conveniently engineered PSR so that 0.00 ranks around 250th, or right where the cutoff is between last player on you roster and first player on free agency). The sleeper projection would yield a PSR of  1.69, which would have ranked 169th last season. The best-case projection would yield a PSR of 3.94, which would have ranked 92nd last season.

So, assuming Nicasio is healthy and remains a member of the Colorado rotation for most of 2012 (likely), he projects as one of the best players on free agency all season and will likely be a rotating spot starter for whichever team needs a timely boost. If things go well for Nicasio and he pitches to his FIP last season, he becomes a top-50 starting pitcher that would certainly have been worth drafting. If everything breaks right and Nicasio absolutely breaks out (long shot but it could happen) he becomes a top-100 player overall and a top-30 starting pitcher whose PSR would have sandwiched him between Daniel Hudson and Madison Bumgarner last season. Again, it’s a long shot, but that’s why we call them sleepers.

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Jesus Montero: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

By on January 23, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

I can’t figure out why Jesus Montero is still getting drafted so low. Last week he was getting drafted 179th overall on Mock Draft Central. “Hey,” I said to myself, “that’s probably just because people haven’t figured out how to evaluate him in Seattle.” Now a week later that ADP has jumped just four slots to 175th. Montero should definitely go higher than this.

But this gives you the chance to capitalize on other owners undervaluing Montero. My best guess is that concerns over Seattle’s ballpark and lineup are inhibiting his ADP, but those don’t bother me too much. I’d much rather have Montero in the Yankees lineup, but I’m OK drafting a guy with this much potential this late in the draft.

Safeco Field park factors courtesy of Statcorner.com

Now, depending on what your league’s eligibility requirements are, Montero may or may not be listed as a catcher. He played just three games at catcher for the Yankees last season so it’s more than likely he’ll be listed as a DH only, but there’s always the chance that Seattle gets him five or 10 starts or however many he needs to gain that coveted catcher eligibility. Once he does, his potential to become one of the top players at an offensively shallow position is immense.

And, best of all, catchers tend to play in fewer games because of the challenging nature of the position. If Montero is a DH, we won’t have these concerns and his at-bat total should far exceed the standard starting fantasy catcher. This is one reason I’ve loved Victor Martinez these last few seasons.

Last season Montero was incredibly impressive in the 18 games he played for New York. While the four homers and .328 average were encouraging, my favorite stat was his 27.3 percent line drive rate. Combine that high line drive rate with his strikeout rate (24.6%, which is high but not much higher than his minor league rates) and you start to see  a player who was not overwhelmed by major league pitching. He has a large 6’4, 225-pound frame, and as a near full-time DH he’ll be able to hone his offensive skills. Seattle hurts home run hitters, particularly righties (see chart to the right), but a 20-homer season is a possibility.

Plus, if Montero can post a 20 percent line drive rate for the full season and keep his strikeout rate around 23 to 25 percent, then he should have a chance at a .270-.280 batting average. MLB Depth Charts projects Montero as the number five hitter in Seattle’s lineup with high on-base guys like Ichiro Suzuki and Dustin Ackley batting in front of him.

You won’t get stolen bases from Montero, but 70 runs, a .275 average, 20 homers and 80 RBI is a pretty solid season, especially for a player with catcher eligibility (if he can get it). That stat line would yield a projected PSR of 2.02, which would have been good for 155th overall last season. That means with a moderate stat projection, Montero will outproduce his ADP by 20 slots, and don’t you think he could really outproduce some of those numbers if everything falls right?

So, would I take a chance on an immensely talented player with a full-time job who could conceivable gain one of the scarcest eligibilities available? Heck yes.

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John Mayberry, Jr.: 2012 Fantasy Sleeper

By on January 15, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

John Mayberry, Jr. broke out on the Major League scene with a huge showing in August 2011, belting six homers and posting a 1.041 OPS in 17 games. This monster of a month from the 27 year old (he’s 28 now) started garnering attention from baseball fans and fantasy owners alike. After seven seasons in the minors, Mayberry finally seemed to find a mainstay in the show in 2011 and has already been deemed the projected left fielder by Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, saying “it’s his position to lose.” However, Mayberry has many naysayers in fantasy land that are not sold on his talents, which shows in his early ADP of 217. Let’s break it down Philly style.

Mayberry was drafted 19th overall in the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft by the Texas Rangers, making his Major League debut in 2009 with the Philadelphia Phillies. In parts of three seasons, Mayberry has posted a career MLB line of .265/.328/.518 with 21 career bombs. In 2011, we saw a spike in Mayberry’s stats, as he started to get more consistent playing time with injuries to the Fightins’ lineup. Here is how Mayberry has faired over the years, with the last line of the chart his projected 2012 totals.

(Notice the projected 2012 totals are based on a regular number of at-bats (518) for Mayberry if he maintains the same percentages on his fringe stats, which is very possible.)

In 2011, John Jr. made jumps and dives in a few categories that raise some eyebrows. First, his batting average jumped nearly 10 points and his OBP went up 13 percentage points while his BABIP stayed relatively the same. His career major league BABIP is certainly at a sustainable level (his xBABIP last season was .285) if not one that can be improved upon in the coming years, so his increased average could be closer to the norm than people may think. More shockingly, his AB/HR and HR/FB decreased from his previous experience in the show (mind you, it is a small sample size, but let’s go with it). And notably, his strikeout and walk rates each improved over his career numbers and AAA career numbers, always a positive sign for a young player.

It certainly seems possible for Mayberry to maintain these numbers throughout an entire season, and look at the numbers for 2012 if he does! I’d certainly take an outfielder who will hit 26 home runs and drive in 85 while hitting .273 and swiping 14 bags in the 21st round of a 10 team league (if you say you wouldn’t, you should find another hobby).

The only thing standing in Mayberry’s way is the Phillies’ lineup. Right now, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence have strongholds on center and right, but left field is wide open. As Manuel said, the job is Mayberry’s to lose, but the playing time of Ben Francisco and looming prospect Domonic Brown, who was a total bust last year, could interfere with Mayberry and lead to a platoon situation, thusly dooming his every day value.

First base is also open with Ryan Howard out until May at the earliest with a busted Achilles, which could also give Mayberry more options. Jim Thome, who is said to be in better shape than when the Phillies signed him the first time in 2002, will play a few times a month at first base this season. If Thome is set to start a few times a month and with their abundance of major league ready players, first base in Philadelphia could be a black hole for fantasy owners until Howard gets back.

Mayberry’s Strengths

Power, consistency, lineup, well-rounded. The Phillies are starved for a power-hitting right-handed batter, which could be to Mayberry’s benefit if he gets off to a good start in 2012. He has shown he can put up these types of numbers consistently as there are no crazy outliers on the chart above, and the Phillies have as potent of a lineup in the NL East and should produce around him. Mayberry will put up decent numbers in every category, and it’s always nice having 25 homers without taking the often sub-.250 average with it.

Mayberry’s Weaknesses

Position uncertainty, questions about every day production. Mayberry has consistently produced when called upon in the MLB. However, he has not done it for a full 162 games to date. If he can battle this season, he could certainly hit 25 homers or more. He has a few starving outfielders breathing down his neck, which will likely result in a short leash, especially once Howard returns to form in May or June.

2012 Prediction

.270/.335/.515 with 62 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB. Definitely worth a draft day pickup.

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Mike Moustakas: 2012 Fantasy Sleeper

By on January 12, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last season we heard a great deal about the Royals’ next All-Star prospect, Mike Moustakas. Fantasy owners, especially in keeper leagues, were delighted for his call-up to the bigs in mid-June last year. However, Moose didn’t pan out the way everyone hoped. He finished his 2011 MLB campaign with a not-so-stellar .263/.309/.367 slash line with 26 runs, five homers and 30 RBI (mind you, four of those homers came in the month of September). Could the tide be turning for the Moose?

Now, fantasy experts have Moustakas being taken in the late rounds or falling to the waiver wire. Let’s dig in and see what we can expect from the Royals’ 2012 starting third baseman.

Moose was the second pick in the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft by the Royals and ranked ninth on Baseball America’s Top Prospects list heading into 2011. He spent parts of five seasons in the Kansas City minor league system, playing in 439 games. In his minor league career, Moose slashed a line of .282/.337/.503 with 84 dingers, 21 steals and 335 RBI. The Moose got loose in three of his minor league seasons, hitting over 20 long balls three times and over 30 once.

So, what went wrong with Moose’s 2011 MLB campaign after he put up very respectable numbers in the minors? His walk rate of 6.9 percent in the minors, although lower than one would want to see in a hitter, translated to a 6.0 percent rate in the majors while his strikeout rate decreased since his call up (17.0% to 14.0%). His .296 BABIP was not overly impressive and could improve this year, but that wouldn’t be the telling factor. His HR/FB rate was an abysmal 4.2 percent, leading to just five homers in his shortened MLB campaign. With a HR/FB rate that low and a fly ball rate of 41.2 percent, one could only expect more long balls. His 20 percent line drive rate should translate to a better BABIP, too.

The best way to predict Moustakas’ future in the majors would be to compare him to his cross-diamond counterpart who traveled a similar path to the show, Eric Hosmer. Hosmer impressed with a .293/.334/.465 slash line in his rookie campaign with the Royals, stroking 19 long balls and driving in 78 runs in an up and coming Kansas City lineup. Here’s a comparison of the two future stars’ minor league statistics:

While Hosmer hits for a better average and gets on base more often, the thing that stands out to me is the power numbers. Moose has a higher slugging percentage, albeit not by much, and much higher AB/HR rate and RBI/GM rates. Then, when you compare the MLB HR/FB rate, one could only expect Moose’s major league numbers to rise tremendously and possibly surpass Hosmer’s in 2012.

Moose’s Strengths

Power potential, position stability, lineup and high line drive rate. Moose can hit the ball hard on a line in every at-bat, which eventually will translate to higher totals in his power game and batting average. With a higher BABIP, this guy could hit .290 with 25 homers. He’s surrounded by a young and upcoming Royals lineup but has the comfort of staying in his position (unless we see an Adam Dunn-like collapse). He has the potential to hit at least 20 homers in 2012.

Moose’s Weaknesses

Speed and experience. Moose has a ton of potential, mainly in the power columns, however, having potential to succeed or surpass expectations also means expectations are probably low and there is potential to fail miserably. While Moustakas could hit 20-plus long balls and drive in 80-plus runs, he will not stand out in any category (especially steals with just 21 stolen bases in 439 minor league games). His inexperience is also cause for concern, as he could easily take a downturn and head back to the minors if the Royals choose to do so.

Prediction

.278/.333/.498, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 58 R, 4 SB

I have high hopes for Moose, and I’m going out on a limb and say he’ll be a top 10 third baseman this year. Third base could be one of the weakest positions, especially given how reliant the strength of the position is on the health of some historically injury-prone players, and if you can scoop the Moose up in the late rounds (especially in keeper leagues), why not take the chance on him? Save your draft picks early on, invest in other positions and take a shot on Moose. I know I will.

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