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12 Riskiest Players for 2012 Fantasy Baseball

By on April 10, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

I love owning Robinson Cano. I don’t get to do it in many leagues because he’s become a first-round fantasy talent, but he plays almost every single day, doesn’t get hurt and puts up monster numbers. He’s everything you want a fantasy stud to be. The 12 guys listed below? They scare the crap out of me. For one reason (injuries) or another (paying for potential) each of them are terrifying to own. They are the 12 riskiest players for 2012 fantasy baseball.

Note: Guys like Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano certainly are boom-or-bust players, but they don’t cost much to draft and/or acquire and are thus low-risk players. Though they scare me, too, they don’t qualify for this list.

12. Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX (ADP: 21.7)

I have no qualms with owning Kinsler. He ranked 18th last season and 29th in 2009, but those seasons bookend a 155th-overall ranking in 2010. There’s no doubting Kinsler’s 30/30 potential, but his numbers have fluctuated greatly from year to year and he doesn’t come cheap.

11. Brett Lawrie, 3B, TOR (ADP: 50.8)

Lawrie had all of 43 games of major league experience entering this season but still had an ADP of 50.8 in drafts. I’ve been touting Lawrie as the third best third baseman this season, so clearly I think he’ll live up to the hype, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t one of the riskiest players to take a chance on. If you’re risk averse, you probably made sure you got Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista to plug in at third or decided to wait on Michael Young.

10. Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL (ADP: 116.0)

I think Hanson might be one of the two or three riskiest pitchers in the entire league in terms of peak potential production versus likelihood of injury, but he’s a borderline top-25 starting pitcher in terms of ADP. That means you’re not giving up a ton to assume the risk. Still, Hanson missed about 10-12 starts last year and threw the third-most sliders and curveballs (42.3% of his pitches combined) of the 145 pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings last year. In his one start this season he relied more on his fastball, which is a good sign, but Hanson is a devastating injury waiting to happen.

9. Yu Darvish, SP, TEX (ADP: 119.4)

Darvish is an unknown commodity. It didn’t cost a whole lot to acquire him via drafts, but I’m willing to bet whoever has him will be unwilling to part with him through trades. He’s just too exciting to own. Darvish pitches for the Rangers, and Texas loves pushing its starters out there inning after inning, but how good will those innings be?

8. Jose Reyes, SS, MIA (ADP: 21.9)

Reyes is the star shortstop for a volatile team and deals with hamstring injuries on a yearly basis. Do I need to explain this any further? Given how high Reyes goes in drafts (second or third round depending on how deep the league is), he’s a staple on any “riskiest players” list.

7. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL (ADP: 82.9)

I’ll preface this by saying I don’t think Weeks is the injury risk everyone makes him out to be. He led the league in plate appearances in 2010 and missed half of last year with a freak ankle injury. I don’t think that risk carries over to 2012, but it’s still tough (and probably irresponsible) to completely ignore the fact that Weeks has played more than 129 games just once in his seven-year career.

6. Josh Beckett, SP, BOS (ADP: 105.0)

Not only does Beckett land on the DL at least once just about every season, but he’s entering this year with a rumored thumb injury, was roughed up by the Tigers in his first start and still hasn’t gotten over the chicken and beer leak in the clubhouse last season. Beckett is unhappy, and I wouldn’t want to deal with his issues on a weekly basis.

5. Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX (ADP: 37.4)

Hamilton’s end-of-season ranks over the last three seasons: 268, 6, 44. He keeps running into outfield walls, keeps hurting himself and he might be the preeminent injury risk in the outfield. I’d do almost anything to have him on my team when he’s healthy, but I’m not giving up a fourth-round draft pick (or equal value) for him.

4. Joe Mauer, C, MIN (ADP: 103.9)

Mauer’s ADP is the lowest it’s been in years, so the risk is lessened. If he went in his usual 20-40 overall draft slot, there’s no doubt that Mauer would be number one on this list. He could end the year as the top-ranked catcher, but he could also miss four months forcing you to start Carlos Ruiz.

3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY (ADP: 59.8)

Rodriguez played 99 games last year and hasn’t topped 138 games since 2007. He doesn’t steal bases anymore and he’s become a .270 hitter. He hasn’t topped 78 runs scored in the last three seasons, so he’s become average at that, too. That means in your standard 5×5 league, Rodriguez is only giving you about 2.5 categories (runs are the half). And that’s if he stays moderately healthy, which is far from certain at this point.

2. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, BOS (ADP: 90.2)

Almost everything that was said about Rodriguez pertains to Youkilis, too, except that Youkilis is a bigger injury risk. His body just hasn’t adjusted well to a return to third base, and his style of play lends itself to all sorts of injuries. I’d be surprised if Youkilis exceeds 135 games played this year. If you ended up with him as your starting third baseman, you’d better have a good backup.

1. Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX (ADP: 44.8)

Cruz is just as big of an injury risk as Youkilis, but you needed to nab him about 45 picks earlier on average. He hasn’t played more than 128 games ever, and he’s posted averages in the .260s in two of the last three seasons. If you want to call that fluky, look at his declining walk rates. Cruz has all the power you could ever want, but he’s a terrible player to own and is 2012′s riskiest player.

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Blind Resume: Using 2012 Projections to Find Great Values

By on March 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Intangibles mean nothing in fantasy baseball. Defense means little, and in most leagues it only indirectly matters how much a player walks, strikes out or grounds into double plays. In fantasy baseball, only the superficial five stats matter for batters and only four stats for pitchers.

Because of this incomplete use of a player’s skills, we often see a wide gap between a player’s real baseball value and their fantasy value, and that means market inefficiencies exist, a term popularized by Moneyball. That’s why I love doing blind resumes where we compare two players by fantasy stats alone to show just how much value can be found late and how names often cloud our evaluations and rankings.

These blind resumes were put together using our official 2012 fantasy projections which you can find in our free draft guide. All you need to do to get it is like us on Facebook! You may agree or disagree with our projection, but that makes this more fun. Can you guess who each player is?

Player A: 80 R | 23 HR | 91 RBI | 8 SB | .293 BA

Player B: 76 R | 19 HR | 100 RBI | 1 SB | .307 BA

Hint: Neither of these guys would be considered first base Royal-ty, but you won’t mind plugging either in your lineup and stocking up at other positions.

Did you guess that Player A is Eric Hosmer and Player B is Billy Butler? Hosmer’s line is a little better overall, ranking ninth among our first base projections while Butler’s line slides in at number 10, but Hosmer’s ADP is 52.7 to Butler’s 116.5. With an improved lineup and already-great contact skills, Butler has a solid chance at his first 100-RBI season, and he’s a much safer bet than Hosmer who, admittedly, has a much higher ceiling. I’d rather have Hosmer (it’s not even a question really) but Butler is very undervalued.

Player A: 85 R | 15 HR | 68 RBI | 15 SB | .278 BA

Player B: 77 R | 16 HR | 71 RBI | 11 SB | .282 BA

Hint: Do you want 2 B risky with the rook or gamble on Player B’s sudden power stroke sticking?

There’s more risk with Player A (Jason Kipnis) than there is with Player B (Howie Kendrick), but we think they’ll have pretty similar lines by the end of the season. Barring a major flop to start 2012, Kipnis will get a full season of at-bats at second base for the Indians, and last year he showed he has the potential to be a good power/speed contributor that can be had on the cheap. Plus, it’s not like Kendrick is without his questions as well (injuries). Right now Kipnis has an ADP of 167.6 versus Kendrick’s 98.9 ADP, which shows how people are valuing them. I’d rather have Kendrick, but would I rather have him almost 70 picks before Kipnis? No.

Player A: 93 R | 19 HR | 91 RBI | 22 SB | .271 BA

Player B: 86 R | 32 HR | 96 RBI | 7 SB | .268 BA

Hint: Both players qualify in the outfield, but I’d rake a “second” look at Player A before siding with Player B’s “Red”-hot power bat.

Before we identify the players, which would you rather have? Player B is projected to hit 13 more homers, but he’s also projected to steal 15 fewer bases. Both players have almost the same number of runs and RBI combined, and neither is a real threat to post a good batting average. In a vacuum I’d probably go with Player A (I value balance), but it’s very close. Well, Player A is Ben Zobrist and Player B is Jay Bruce. It’s not that I don’t like Bruce a lot — I’ll gladly plug a 30-homer bat into my outfield — but I do think he’s a bit overrated, especially when you consider that Bruce’s ADP this season is 42.3 whereas Zobrist’s is 76.3. Right now Bruce is valued around pitchers like Zack Greinke and Dan Haren while Zobrist is valued around Ian Kennedy and Mat Latos. I like all four of those starters, but I’d much rather have Zobrist and Greinke than Bruce and Kennedy. And to top it all off, Zobrist qualifies at second base as well (in case the Hint was too vague for you).

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10 Bold Predictions: Relief Pitchers

By on March 28, 2012 | Comments { 3 }

The Mariners have the best record in baseball! Let their fans enjoy it for at least a day! For the rest of you, enjoy these 10 bold predictions for relief pitchers, the last installment in our preseason predictions series. You can see what else we’ve boldly predicted below:

1. Vinnie Pestano saves 25 games.

Odds: 25 percent

Most people believe that Pestano will eventually become Cleveland’s closer. Chris Perez is injured to start the season so Pestano gets a chance to show what he can do right away, and though Perez will get the job back once he’s healthy enough, I have a hard time imagining him holding onto it if he pitches as poorly as last season. Projecting 25 saves from Pestano is the equivalent of projecting he remains the Indians closer for about four months of the season. Perez is arbitration eligible and got a $2 million dollar bump this season to $4.5 million, and that number will only rise over the next two years. For a cost-conscious team like the Indians who have a team payroll just under $49 million, Perez might be someone they look to trade.

2. Sean Marshall saves 40 games.

Odds: 15 percent

When news broke that Ryan Madson would miss the 2012 season, everyone secretly hoped Aroldis Chapman would be named the closer. The team wisely chose a different alternative, and it looks like Marshall will be their closer to start the year. He’s been one of the game’s best setup men over the last two years, combining high strikeout rates with a walk rate just over 2.00 BB/9 last season, and he hasn’t allowed fly balls more than 27.9 percent of the time over any of the last three seasons. That should really help him in Cincinnati. I think Marshall will keep the job for the entire season, and that means he should be a great source of saves. Francisco Cordero saved 39, 40 and 37 games over the last three years, respectively, and he did that blowing 14 save chances over the last two seasons. If I was to be less bold and say Marshall will save 30 games, I’d put that at 70 percent. That’s the confidence I have in him.

3. Andrew Bailey pitches fewer than 35 innings.

Odds: 25 percent

Bailey is injury-prone. We all know that. Bailey is now a member of the Red Sox. We all know that, too. Put those two together, though, and you get some serious injury potential. For whatever reason, the Red Sox have had a very difficult time keeping their players healthy and rehabbing those who do get hurt. Bailey has already had some lat issues this spring, and I’m pretty scared about his health this season. The Red Sox did make some offseason changes to their medical staff in light of the problems they’ve been having over the last few years (Jacoby Ellsbury in 2010 and Clay Buchholz in 2011 come to mind) so we’ll see if that helps.

4. You’ll be happy you drafted Heath Bell.

Odds: 20 percent

Bell has been a reliever for eight seasons now, and before being an elite closer for the last three years he was an elite setup man for two years. Last season Bell saw his strikeout rate plummet even though his peripherals didn’t change much and his velocity remained constant, so what gives? I think Bell is a big risk this season because of his new contract and change in location (read: Not Petco). Miami is a volatile environment with a lot of uncertainties, ballpark included, and I’d rather not risk a higher pick to draft Bell when I can wait on someone like Marshall.

5. Jason Motte finishes as a top five closer.

Odds: 35 percent

I don’t think Fernando Salas has much of a chance taking the job from Motte. New manager Mike Matheny has pretty strongly put his faith in Motte, so let’s just assume he’s the team’s closer for the rest of the season. What kind of numbers could we see? If last year’s numbers are any indication (2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) then Motte has what it takes to post elite ratios, and his great season last year is underscored by the fact that the former catcher is still new to this whole “pitching” thing. I think there’s a better chance he builds on his success than he regresses from it.

6. Jonathan Broxton saves more games than any Dodgers reliever.

Odds: 25 percent

This prediction boils down to two smaller predictions: Broxton will win the KC closing gig and Javy Guerra won’t last long in LA. Broxton was terrible in his 12 1/3 innings last year and his velocity has been on the decline for two seasons, but there’s a good enough chance he’s the best closing option even if he struggles. As for the Dodgers, Kenley Jansen and Guerra will steal saves from each other paving the way for Broxton to out-save them both.

7. Matt Thornton keeps the closing job all season.

Odds: 30 percent

After a disastrous start to his closing career last year, Thornton became the Thornton of old after moving back to the setup role. Now the questions is whether the struggles were related to him being a closer or just a very tough stretch to start the season. I think Thornton is capable of being an elite closer, and if he succeeds early on he should be able to hold off flame-throwing prospect Addison Reed.

8. Jim Johnson saves 25 games for the Orioles.

Odds: 20 percent

Johnson has the closing job to start the season, but he’s not your prototypical closer. He has a power fastball, but his strikeout rate has never topped 7.52 K/9. I don’t think Johnson is really a good candidate to close games, but he’s a heckuva lot better than Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom will probably have to prove his worth to Buck Showalter.

9. Joe Nathan finishes as a top three closer.

Odds: 20 percent

Nathan says the difference between this spring and last spring is “night and day” to the point where this season he isn’t even thinking about his elbow. There are a lot of quality relief options in the Texas bullpen, but Nathan is the best of them when healthy. Now a full season removed from Tommy John surgery, Nathan is capable of getting back to his old ways. That could mean 40 saves, an ERA in the mid-to-low 2.00s and a WHIP just over 1.00. Gamble on Nathan.

10. Tyler Clippard is not worth drafting in non-holds leagues.

Odds: 90 percent

(Yes, I’m aware I listed this at 90 percent but it had to be said). After finishing last season with 100 strikeouts, a 1.83 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP, you might be tempted to draft or add Clippard in your non-holds league. Don’t. His strand rate last season was 95.6 percent. His BABIP was .197. His FIP was 3.18. Clippard will regress, and when he does he’ll likely have an ERA resembling that 2011 FIP, and a correction in BABIP will push that WHIP up near his 1.21 mark from 2010. Clippard brings you the strikeouts, but the rest will be easily replaceable. Oh, and with Drew Storen closing games he won’t get a chance at saves.

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10 Bold Predictions: Starting Pitchers

By on March 27, 2012 | Comments { 5 }

With the season-opener less than 24 hours away, it’s time to start wrapping up our Bold Predictions series with the penultimate version. Here are the starting pitchers bold predictions!

1. Francisco Liriano AND Brian Matusz will finish in the top 25 among starting pitchers.

Odds: 10 percent

What a parlay! I wonder what the odds would be if Vegas did fantasy sports betting (if they do, please don’t tell me). These two pitchers were known for being major disappointments in 2011, but they are both having marvelous springs. There’s one stat that really matters during Spring Training and that’s K/BB ratio. Right now, Liriano has an 11.5 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 (7.67 K/BB) in 18 innings and Matusz has a 8.24 K/9 and 0.92 BB/9 (9.00 K/BB) in 19 2/3 innings.

We know they both have tremendous potential s dont’ be surprised if you’re left at the end of the season thinking “I should have used a late-round pick on one of those guys.”

2. Mike Minor finishes as the best Braves starting pitcher.

Odds: 20 percent

Here’s another 2011 disappointment as Minor was beat out of Spring Training for the Braves’ fifth rotation spot by Brandon Beachy and the rest is history. Beachy went on to have a very successful rookie year while Minor spent another season dominating at the Triple-A level. In his short stint as a Major League pitcher, Minor has shown flashes of brilliance (8.76 K/9, 2.99 BB/9 in 123 1/3 IP), but his ERA (4.74) tells us a different story. You can thank a career .353 BABIP for that high ERA and hopefully it comes down to earth over a full season of innings.

We already know Tommy Hanson‘s injury risk and you can add Tim Hudson to that list as well. Beachy is the only one that could stand in Minor’s way.

3. Josh Johnson starts 28 games and finishes as a top 10 pitcher.

Odds: 35 percent

The odds are higher than normal for this prediction because if Johnson stays healthy for 28 starts he’s almost a guarantee to be a top 10 pitcher. We forget how good Johnson can be, but he’s a pitcher who misses bats (career 8.28 K/9), limits walks (2.98 BB/9) and induces ground balls (47.6 GB%). All of the risk lies on his health. There have been positive signs for Johnson this spring and his off season work out routine was much more pitcher’s-focused than his “World’s Strongest Man” workout routine from the 2011 off season.

The addition of Jose Reyes improves the infield defense and while it’s hard to rely on Johnson in fantasy baseball (especially in H2H leagues where he could miss your playoffs), I’ll be targeting him in my leagues.

4. Gio Gonzalez finishes with a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Odds: 30 percent

Everyone is loving Gonzalez’s move to the National League, but let’s not underrate his move away from Oakland. His previous home park helped reduce home runs to right-handed hitters by 20 percent and left-handers by 11 percent. In Washington, while not bad, the numbers aren’t nearly as good (6% decrease for lefties, neutral for righties). Over the last two seasons he has been a pitcher who outproduced his peripherals (3.17 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.88 xFIP) and leaving Oakland isn’t going to help that.

5. Doug Fister will win 20 games.

Odds: 10 percent

With two first basemen fielding the corners in the infield I am a little worried that Fister will see some extra bad luck thrown his way in 2012. While that might raise his ERA/WHIP a bit from his great 2011 totals, where Fister should drastically improve is in the wins column.

Last year, he won just 16.7 percent of his 12 quality starts with Seattle, but when he was traded to Detroit he won a whopping 87.5 percent of his eight quality starts. Obviously, Fister won’t pitch as well in 2011 as he did in that two-month stretch, but he should hit 20 quality starts, which would give him 15 wins at only a 75 percent win rate. Add in a couple of lucky wins because of a great offense and you have a shot at a 20-win season.

6. Adam Wainwright will be outside the top 30 among pitchers at the All-Star break, but will be a top-10 pitcher in the second half.

Odds: 25 percent

It’s generally known the last part of a pitcher’s game to come back after Tommy John surgery is his control and that’s a big part of Wainwright’s game. It’s what separates him from an above-average pitcher to a fantasy ace and if that takes a while to come back he might struggle out the gates. He remains a big-time trade target in June for me.

7. Jeremy Hellickson will end up on the waiver wire in 10-team mixed leagues.

Odds: 25 percent

When you look at Hellickson’s numbers (13-10, 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) you think he’s a 25-year-old ready to burst into a career season, but in reality he’s a sabermetric nightmare. His 4.44 FIP/4.74xFIP were well above his ERA and he stranded 82 percent of runners on base (MLB average is 72%). Add in the fact that he has bad control (3.44 BB/9) and doesn’t induce ground balls (35 GB%) and you can see why I’m a little nervous about him being roster worthy in a standard league.

8. Madison Bumgarner finshes as a top-five pitcher.

Odds: 15 percent

At first this prediction was going to be that Bumgarner would finish as the best Giants pitcher, but that isn’t bold enough. That I can’t consider him finishing the season better than Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain bold enough tells you how much I like Bumgarner. While his 3.21 ERA ranked 23rd in the league, his 2.67 FIP ranked 4th and his 3.10 xFIP ranked 7th. He also has great control, shown in both the majors and minors, and an average ground ball rate (46.0 GB%). You can also add in the friendly confines of the Giants’ home stadium and the 22-year-old is set to have a very bright future.

9. Michael Pineda starts the season in Triple-A, but is a top 20 pitcher in the second half.

Odds: 15 percent

The odds of Pineda starting the season in Triple-A are very good, but I’m confident that he will come back better and stronger to dominate in the second half of the season. Remember another situation where a starting pitcher lost velocity in Spring Training, got sent down to the minors, regained that velocity then had a great September and has been pitching great ever since? Our subject from bold prediction #7, Madison Bumgarner. If Pineda can regain his ability to miss bats in the minors, before being scrutinized in New York, he should have plenty of success with the Yankees.

10. Jorge De La Rosa will win people in H2H leagues a championship.

Odds: 10 percent

I’ve always been a fan of JDLR as I thought he was on track for an Ubaldo Jimenez-esque career, but Tommy John surgery crushed any hopes for that. Still, he’s on track to return around mid season and if he doesn’t suffer any setbacks he could be in for a nice last month of the season when he starts to get his control and velocity up to normal. The Rockies will definitely want to get him some quality innings under his belt so that they can have him ready for a full 2013 season.

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10 Bold Predictions: Outfield

By on March 24, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Here we are, Draft Weekend. So maybe that’s not a real thing, but with Opening Day fast approaching leagues are starting to get their drafts in gear and what better way to prepare with some bold predictions!

1. Dexter Fowler finally breaks out and scores 100 runs with 30 steals.

Odds: 25 percent

How can someone with Fowler’s speed and ability to get on base (career .355 OBP)have such a hard time stealing bases (career 65-percent success rate)? That question we may never be able to answer, but he’s entering his fourth season as a pro (26 years old) and is coming off a great second half where, among outfielders, he ranked T-5th in runs (51), 1st in triples (10), T-19th in steals (10) and 9th in OBP (.381).

Reports out of Rockies camp claim that Fowler has been working on his stolen base techiques and if everything works out we could see a true breakout campaign in 2012.

2. Peter Bourjos hits 15 home runs and steals 30 bases.

Odds: 25 percent

Bourjos is another outfielder who came on strong in the second half last season, posting a .270 batting average with 39 runs, nine home runs and 11 steals in 215 at-bats. He doesn’t walk much, so his on-base percentage will rely heavily on his batting average, but he has the speed to steal any base when he does get on. Look for him to be more comfortable and aggressive on the base paths in his sophomore season.

3. Giancarlo Stanton finishes 2012 outside the top 15 among outfielders.

Odds: 15 percent

Stanton has been sort of a staple on Baseball Professor this preseason as we think he is being quite overrated on draft day. His current ADP is 26.12 and the big problem with that is he’s only elite in one category (HR). Sure, he gets a decent amount of runs, but we don’t expect 100 anytime in his near future. He should up his RBI with the addition of Jose Reyes, but I still see 100 as a ceiling and you aren’t getting anything in terms of steals or batting average.

The scenario that we’ll keep shoving down your throats is Stanton vs. Michael Bourn. Bourn, who’s going at pick 53.04 is an elite contributor in at least two categories (R, SB) and at least has the potential to hit .300 even though he’s probably closer to a .285 hitter. Yes, generally home runs are harder to find, but not in the third round where Stanton is going in almost every draft.

4. Jeff Francoeur finshes higher than Matt Holliday in 2012 PSR.

Odds: 10 percent

This prediction has a lot more to do with Holliday than it does Francoeur. I’m worried about Holliday, who showed some signs of breaking down last year and while he’s a tough guy (he came back from an appendectomy in less than two weeks for God’s sake his production can be limited even if he does get on the field. Then there’s also the fact that Albert Pujols is gone and all Holliday has hitting around him is the oft-injured Lance Berkman and the often-more-injured Carlos Beltran. It seems that the odds are stacked against Holliday this season and I don’t want to be the guy paying for the season he finally disappoints.

For Francoeur, other than being my least favorite last name to spell, he will probably see some reduction in his 2011 numbers. What we saw was Frenchy at his best in almost every category and while I think the steals are semi-legit I see him more as an 18-homer, 16-steal guy rather than a 20/20 player.

5. Logan Morrison puts it all together for a nice .280-85-25-90-5 line.

Odds: 20 percent

The good thing about Morrison is that he got paired with a manager who might love Twitter more than he does. We know that he can hit .280 and 25 home runs is certainly in his reach. If he can reach both marks the rest of the counting stats should fall right in place give his spot batting fifth in a surprisingly solid lineup.

6. Lucas Duda finishes in the top 25 among outfielders.

Odds: 30 percent

The man known as El Dudarino had a very productive rookie season posting numbers very close to his minor league track record. He has the profile of a decent power hitter (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) who knows his way around a strike zone (9.5 BB%). Last season, he hit fly balls 47 percent of the time and his ISO was a decent .189.

If he had played enough for 650 plate appearances, he would have hit close to 18 home runs. Now that the Mets are bringing the walls in, expect a slight power surge that could push him over the 20-homer threshold and make him a viable outfielder in all leagues.

7. B.J. Upton ends 2012 as a top-five OF.

Odds: 20 percent

Oh Bossman Junior (yes, that’s what B.J. is short for), I can never seem to shake you. Every year I try to convince myself to forget about Upton and just go on with my life, but he always sucks me in somehow. Let’s get one thing straight; while a lot of people hate on him for his horrible batting average, his yearly 20/40 potential still makes him damn useful in fantasy. He also takes a lot of walks (11.2 BB%), which helps him get on base despite the poor batting average. But’s that not the main reason I like him in 2012. He’s in a contract year!

He’s been in a three-year battle with the Rays getting slight increases in arbitration, but he has yet to really cash in big with a long-term deal. Well, that’s coming if he ups his play in 2012 and he knows it. Nothing like a little green to motivate an uber-talenter player who’s been resting on his laurels for the better part of three seasons now. And I’m sucked right back in again.

8. Drew Stubbs breaks the strikeout record…by 10 strikeouts.

Odds: 15 percent

The best comparison I can come up with when thinking of Stubbs is the aforementioned Upton without the plate discipline. That’s a downright scary thought. Stubbs has increased his strikeout rate in every season, ending with a 30.1 strikeout percentage in 2011 that helped him score the third-highest strikeout total in MLB history (205).

The problem with Stubbs begins and ends against right-handed pitching (7.9 BB%/30.9 K% with a .226/.293/.338 slash). Compare those with his numbers against left-handed pitching (14.9 BB%/26.9 K% with a .319/.418/.478 slash) and you see a completely different hitter. Unfortunately, right-handed pitching is much more common in the majors as evidenced by his 547 PAs against righties versus only 134 against lefties.

9. Bryce Harper gets called up in May and hits 20 home runs, while Mike Trout stays in Triple-A until September.

Odds: 25 percent

Harper has dominated every level of baseball he has played and the Nationals might have no choice but to call him up once his Super Two deadline passes (usually sometime in May). For the record, I actually don’t know how good Harper was back in his tee ball days, but wouldn’t it be funny if he absolutely sucked and all the kids made fun of him? We’ll never know.

Alas, he’s about ready to contribute in a big way in the majors and at the very worst should be able to showcase that sweet power that he brings. We might not see a Ryan Braun-type dominance right away (c’mon, the kid is only 19!), but if all goes according to plan we might be talking about Harper as a top 10 outfielder as soon as 2013. I love the hype machine!

10. Allen Craig will be the best fantasy hitter on the Cardinals.

Odds: 15 percent

OK, OK, this is my last unintentional shot at Holliday. I’m a big-time fan of his, I swear! Anyways, here’s a fun fact courtesy of ESPN’s funny man/love expert Matthew Berry: Craig hit a home run every 18.1 at-bats in 2011. Yes, that’s the same as notable power hitter David Ortiz. We weren’t sure that Craig would be ready until possibly June after knee surgery in December, but the Cardinals haven’t ruled him out for Opening Day just yet. That alone should let you feel good about his prospects of returning sometime in April or May.

He’s a career .307 hitter in the minor leagues and always possessed close to 30-homer power when extrapolated over 160 games. He’s been right around those numbers in his limited time in the Majors, and if he can finally stay healthy he will provide big time value for those that took the chance late in their drafts.

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10 Bold Predictions: Third Base

By on March 20, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

With spring training under way and Opening Day right around the corner, it’s time for our Bold Predictions series. See our other Bold Predictions so far:

1. Pablo Sandoval will finish as the third-best third baseman.

Odds: 15 percent

Had it not been for an injury, Sandoval probably would have hit 30 home runs with a .300 batting average and all the good stuff that comes with it. Considering that his injury was in his wrist and his power didn’t suffer (.275 ISO in final three months) is a great sign, and he’s still only 25 years old so the power could/should only get better.

Of course, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista are favorites to finish as the top two third basemen, but after that there are questions galore. If Sandoval can approach 30 home runs with a .300 batting average, he should have a decent shot at finishing among the elites at third base.

2. David Wright will play fewer than 80 games.

Odds: 20 percent

If it’s not one thing, it’s another with Wright and he just downright scares me. You won’t see him on any of my teams because by the time I feel the risk is worth the reward, he’ll be long gone as someone will buy into him playing 130 games this year. Well, he only played 102 last season and there are already reports of a slight tear in his ab muscles. Until he lays off the P90x, I’m staying far away.

3. Mark Trumbo will qualify at third base in almost every league before May 1st and will finish in the top 10.

Odds: 25 percent

Maybe Trumbo will learn a thing or two while watching “The Machine” take batting practice every morning. Let’s hope so because his OBP was basically non-existent last year. If you are in an OBP league, disregard this projection because he doesn’t care to walk when he’s at the plate (4.4 BB%), but in all other leagues Trumbo figures to get plenty of at-bats and has enough raw power and speed in his game to matter.

4. Brent Morel will hit 20 home runs.

Odds: 20 percent

In 2009, Jose Bautista had a monster September before breaking out in 2010 and continuing his success through the 2011 season. Since then everyone’s been trying to find the next breakout candidate and this year it’s Brent Morel. Take a look at his stats from last season:

April-August: 2 HR, 29.5 FB%, 2.23 HR/FB%
September: 8 HR, 46.5 FB%, 29.6 HR/FB%

The biggest difference between Morel’s game in the first five months of the season and September is the amount of fly balls he generated. Clearly Morel changed something in his swing/approach to hit the ball in the air, and when that happens it’s usually followed by a spike in home runs. He’ll get a full season of at-bats and plays in a favorable ballpark for hitters, so is it crazy to think that if he can carry over his September into this season he can eclipse 20 or even 25 home runs? I don’t think so.

5. Kevin Youkilis will have a better season than Brett Lawrie.

Odds: 35 percent

It’s the perfect ADP storm; Youkilis is the aging, injury-prone veteran while Brett Lawrie is the exciting, young prospect. Listen, I get why Lawrie’s ADP (54.8) is almost 30 picks earlier than Youkilis’ (83.6), but that doesn’t mean I have to subscribe to the idea. While Youkilis has averaged only 111 games in the last two seasons, he’s still put up respectable numbers: 72.5 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 3.5 SB and a .280/.391/.507 slash. Sure, his GB:FB ratio went north of 1.00 for the first time in his career, but he’s hardly a player in the “twilight” of his career and is a great “buy low” candidate.

On the other hand, we have Lawrie, who in 43 games hit nine home runs, stole seven bases and slashed .293/.373/.580. Those numbers jump off the page and could be the sign of a massive breakout campaign this year, but it was only 43 games. If Gordon Beckham has taught us anything, it’s to never go all-in on a small sample size in the majors. Lawrie is still just 22 years old and there will be plenty of adjustments that he needs to make to have consistent success at the plate. In keeper leagues I’m bullish on acquiring Lawrie’s talents, but in a one-year league Youkilis could have enough left in the tank to hold off the youngster one last time.

6. Although he will be playing at first base, Mat Gamel qualifies at third base and will hit 30 home runs.

Odds: 15 percent

Let’s clear something up first; Gamel’s numbers last year in the minors (128 G, .310 BA, 90 R, 96 RBI and 28 HR) were inflated for two reasons: (1) He’s a 26-year-old playing in Triple-A and (2) he played in the Pacific Coast League, which is known for its small ballparks.

Then why do I think he has a shot at 30 home runs this year? Well, for the same reasons that Miller Park helped Prince Fielder‘s lefty power it will help Gamel’s as well. Batters usually have more power when pulling the ball, so as long as Gamel can carry over the same contact rates he had in the minors he should have a fighter’s chance at 30 home runs this year. You know he’ll get the at-bats.

7.  Mike Moustakas cracks the top 10 among third basemen.

Odds: 15 percent

Everyone was talking about Moustakas going into the 2011 season, but it was Eric Hosmer who took the fantasy baseball world by storm. Still, Moustakas rebounded from a poor start to hit .316 with four home runs, 20 RBI and a .209 ISO after August 1. They aren’t earth-shattering numbers, but he has the potential to turn in a .280/25/80 season.

Whether or not he reaches that level this year will be up to his plate discipline as he swung at a ridiculous 35.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. If he can tone down his tendency to swing at everything between his chin and ankles, then he can put himself in better situations as a hitter and let that awesome raw power (.221 ISO in minors) shine.

8. Evan Longoria will finally break out and hit .300 with 40 home runs.

Odds: 15 percent

Since 2006, Tropicana Field has ranked outside the bottom 10 in terms of hits just once. The park factor has been above average just once. It’s a better pitcher’s park than people give it credit for (thank you Todd Zola).

So what does this have to do with Longoria? Absolutely nothing. Despite hitting .244 last season, Longoria might have had his best season at the plate in his young career. He increased his walk rate by three percentage points and decreased strikeouts by over two points. He also swung and missed at fewer pitches while maintaining his career-high contact rate from 2010. If that’s not enough for you, he also rebounded in the power department by bringing his ISO back to his career norm.

If it weren’t for that pesky .239 BABIP (.321 career BABIP before 2011) his batting average wouldn’t have been so low and we might be talking about how much he’s been enjoying that shiny, new MVP trophy.

9. Michael Young will hit 20 home runs.

Odds: 30 percent

Before 2011 Young had increased his fly ball percentage for three straight seasons, but that quickly ended with a very low (even for him) 26.5 FB%. Young can still hit the ball with authority as evidenced by his 26.2 LD% last season so if he could get a little more lift on the ball like in the prior three seasons, he could get back to his usual 17-to-20-homer self.

10. Pedro Alvarez will break the strikeout record.

Odds: 20 percent

The only thing that will stop this prediction from coming true will be his playing time. The Pirates can go two ways with Alvarez this year; they could (1) stick him in their lineup and let him figure it out at the Major League level or (2) send him to Triple-A and see if he can work on his mechanics before getting another shot. With the addition of Casey McGehee it looks like option two is more likely, which is why the odds are at just 20 percent here, but if they go with option one, look out Mark Reynolds.

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Updated Top 250 Fantasy Rankings

By on March 18, 2012 | Comments { 2 }

In late December (not back in ’63) we put together our top 200 fantasy baseball rankings. We used those rankings to profile the top 200 players at the position, and if you’ve visited us before you’ve undoubtedly come across one of these posts.

Then we put out our Draft Guide the other day, and in it we included our updated 2012 fantasy rankings, expanded to our top 250. These rankings were calculated by plugging our 2012 projections for each player into our PSR equation and letting it spit out the results. Here are the updated rankings with each player’s projected PSR rating.

For projections, auction dollar values, prospect report and graphs of statistical trends at each position, make sure you get your free copy of our draft guide today.

And please, tell us what you like and/or hate in the comments section!

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