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Player Profile #120: John Axford | RP | MIL

By on January 26, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

John Axford has rapidly become one of the game’s best closers. Breaking news! Milwaukee’s acquiring Francisco Rodriguez! Who’s going to close?! Axford took one look at K-Rod and said, “Nice goggles, but where’s your ‘stache?” That was that. He’s posted FIPs of 2.13 and 2.41 in each of the last two seasons and saved 46 games last year for the NL Central champs. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher, greatly improved his walk rate and his worst career OBA is .211. But wait, he’s only ranked 120? Ah, the life of a closer in fantasy baseball. Saves are unpredictable, and anything can happen with relievers. Axford could repeat last season’s success and rank in the top 50 overall again, but he could also turn in a 30-save season, post an ERA in the 2.50-3.00 range and generally underwhelm. On a fantasy team, Axford’s production can be replaced…unless one of your league’s categories is Facial Hair.

Best case scenario: Repeat of 2011 season
Similar players: J.J. Putz (ARI), Sergio Santos (TOR), Jonathan Papelbon (PHI)
Worst case scenario: 2011 version of Brian Wilson (SF)

Strengths

K, SV. Anyone who strikes out over a batter per inning is in pretty elite company, and relievers that can top 10-plus K/9 are truly elite. Just five relievers had a strikeout rate over 10 K/9 and saved more than 11 games. Axford was one of them. Milwaukee should continue to be one of the best team’s in the NL, and that should mean plenty of save chances.

Weaknesses

WHIP (I guess). A 1.14 WHIP is nothing to scoff at, but when there were 10 other relievers who saved 25-plus games with WHIPs under 1.10, you can’t be considered elite (in that category at least).

ADP Report (91.1)

I wouldn’t take Axford here, but that’s because I wouldn’t take any closer not named Craig Kimbrel this early. From a pure value perspective, Axford is probably worth this pick, so it all comes down to what your strategy is with closers.

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Player Profile #121: Johnny Cueto | SP | CIN

By on January 26, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Is this Tim Hudson 2.0? Well, Johnny Cueto needs the years of success on his resume, but 2011 was a nice start. We saw a different pitcher on the mound as he threw his two-seamer more often (40.3% up from 30.8 percent), which helped bring his ground ball rate up from 41.7 percent to a very nice 53.7 percent. You will hear a lot of analysis on how Cueto out-pitched his FIP (3.45) with his 2.31 ERA, but inducing that many ground balls will do that from time to time. Of course, I expect Cueto to have an ERA between 3.00-3.50, but with his improved control he can definitely continue to post great WHIP numbers, especially if he keeps the ball on the ground. With the low ERA/WHIP, his lack of strikeouts aren’t a huge concern.

Best case scenario: Shaun Marcum (MIL)
Similar players: Clay Buchholz (BOS), Justin Masterson (CLE), Alexi Ogando (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Jair Jurrjens (ATL)

Strengths

Ground ball rate, home run rate. What used to be a huge problem for Cueto (home runs) is now a strength. Who wouldathunkit? It all comes down to his ground ball rate, and he was able to bring that to an elite level last year (ranked 11th in MLB). It remains to be seen whether or not his 2011 approach was a flash in the pan or a whole new approach on the mound.

Weaknesses

Strikeouts. Cueto is a pitcher who once struck out 8.17 batter per nine innings, but that was also the year he walked the most batters. Every year he has reduced his strikeouts, but the walks have gone along with them. As long as that trend continues I’m OK with his strikeouts being a weakness.

ADP Report (113.7)

While Cueto isn’t the pitcher he was when he came up to the majors, it’s clear this is a better look for him in real life and in fantasy. Sure the strikeouts are sexy, but wouldn’t you rather have a guy who kept a low, consistent ERA and WHIP rather than getting you seven strikeouts per outing? I know I would and it’s why his ADP doesn’t bother me as much as I initially thought it would. He’s going higher than some pitcher’s I’d rather have like Brandon Beachy (116.9), Jordan Zimmermann (120.2), and Tim Hudson (137.3), but I like him as a great value if he can fall into the 14th round.

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Player Profile #122: Matt Wieters | C | BAL

By on January 25, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

The Orioles’ Tower of Power, the Game’s Next Joe Mauer. That’s what a magazine cover read before Matt Wieters‘ rookie season a few years ago. Well, 2009 and 2010 didn’t go quite as expected, and Wieters sort of fell out of the eye of mainstream fans who chose to focus on the next wave of young stars like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward. But lo! Wieters actually put together a pretty nice 2011 season that included his first 20-homer campaign and a good-for-a-catcher 72 runs. I’d say we should see more improvement in year four.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Miguel Montero (ARI), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Wilson Ramos (WAS)

Strengths

HR, R. Wieters has enough power to hit 25-plus homers, which is good for almost any position but great for a catcher. The same goes for runs scored. Wieters spent most of last year batting sixth or seventh, but this year he projects as the fifth batter in Baltimore’s lineup. That should result in more RBI opportunities, and, combined with Wieters’ .274 xBA last season versus his .262 actual average, we could see a stark rise in runs driven in.

Weaknesses

Lineup. I really like Wieters as a very good, but not elite, catching option. Batting average would normally be a weakness, but when you compare him to all catchers, it’s tough to find anyone who hits for an average over .270 and can hit some homers, too.

ADP Report (102.1)

This ADP is a bit high and probably the result of drafters panicking about getting stuck with someone like J.P. Arencibia or Wilson Ramos as their starting catcher. Believe it or not, those guys are going just three catchers after Wieters on average. If reaching here is what it takes to prevent getting stuck with a vastly inferior option, then go for it, but it’s unlikely Wieters lives up to this pick and finishes the year as a borderline top 100 option.

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Player Profile #123: Logan Morrison | OF | MIA

By on January 25, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Logan Morrison is the poster boy for Baseball Professor’s xBA and xBABIP equations. Last season Morrison clubbed 23 homers, a very nice and useful total for a starting fantasy outfielder, but his .247 average made him a bench-caliber player in all but the deepest of leagues. Take one look at Morrison’s xBA (.284) and xBABIP (.306) and you see how unlucky Morrison’s season actually was. Imagine if he batted .284 with 23 homers and a proportionate rise in runs and RBI. Since the increase in batting average from .247 to .284 is 15 percent let’s increase his 2011 run and RBI totals by 15 percent as well. That would yield 62 runs and 83 RBI, and would have ranked Morrison 118th overall. Can he actually attain these numbers and earn that 118 rank? Stay tuned.

Best case scenario: Corey Hart (MIL)
Similar players: Lance Berkman (STL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Torii Hunter (LAA)
Worst case scenario: Gaby Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

HR, RBI, balance. When Morrison is firing on all cylinders, he can bring a .280-plus average and could even approach 30 homers. Last season he hit 23 homers in just 462 at-bats, but he did need an 18.1 percent HR/FB rate to do that. It’s important to note, though, that those numbers last season came in just 123 games. A full season of games would greatly augment those totals. I think a 100 RBI season could be in his future.

Weaknesses

SB, R. Morrison can get it done almost everywhere, but he won’t steal bases and the guys batting sixth-seventh-eighth-ninth in the Miami lineup will likely inhibit his run total.

ADP Report (151.9)

This is solely a result of Morrison’s .247 average last season. You’d think that with with such an active Twitter account (@LoMoMarlins) he’d be more in the front of drafters’ minds, but instead he falls toward the middle or bottom of their draft boards. Remember, if Morrison’s average last year reflected how well he actually hit (.284), he would have been a top 120 player. Morrison is one of the best values in the outfield.

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