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Zach is an Intelligence Analyst in the US Air Force where he researches/analyzes military data and creates summarized reports to inform others of their recommended course of action. Here at Baseball Professor, he does essentially the same thing by researching/analyzing the stats and putting them in a summarized article to inform you of a recommended course of action for your fantasy team. Zach has a huge passion for baseball and has been adamantly following the sport since he was nine years old and managing fantasy teams since he was thirteen. Right now a small town in New Hampshire is where he calls home, and like the majority of this writing staff, he is a fervent (unbiased!) Red Sox fan. Also, he probably thinks Mike Trout should win the MVP every year until 2031.

Zach Pincince

Braun can't believe some of these crazy stats! (Photo: www.onmilwaukee.com)

Braun can’t believe some of these crazy stats! (Photo: www.onmilwaukee.com)

#ICYMI* last week I started a new trend where I began tweeting a whole bunch of fascinating baseball facts using the hashtag #ProfStats. I then compiled them into an interesting and easy-to-read summary article right here on Baseball Professor. This will be a weekly occurrence, so make sure you check the site every Tuesday for your weekly baseball stats and facts fix.

As a reminder, if you have an interesting stat or fact you’d like to share, tweet it using the hashtag #ProfStats and your stat could get retweeted and maybe even posted in next week’s article. You can also leave it in the comments section here if you don’t have a Twitter account. Don’t forget to follow me @ZachPincince to see all the stats before they make the weekly article as well as see some bonus stats that don’t end up making the compilation.

Now, this week’s #ProfStats:

Sizzling Sluggers

  • 2013 was the first season since 2002 where the top HR total (Davis – 53) was higher than the top SB total (Ellsbury – 52). #ProfStats
  • Ryan Braun hit 3 home runs against the Phillies Wednesday (April 8). He had just 2 home runs from May 1, 2013 through April 7, 2014 (342 days). #ProfStats
  • Ryan Braun is just the 7th player in the past 5 years with a 3+ HR & 7+ RBI game. Josh Hamilton was the last to do it back in 2012. #ProfStats
  • Melky Cabrera already has 4 home runs through just 8 games this year after hitting only 3 home runs in 88 games last year. #ProfStats
  • Starlin Castro has two home runs against the Pirates Wednesday night – the first multi-homer game of his career. #ProfStats
  • Giancarlo Stanton hit just 4 home runs in April of 2012 & 2013 combined (148 AB). This April he already has 4 HRs in just 50 AB. #ProfStats

No way, Jose!

  • Jose Fernandez allowed 6 runs against the Phillies Friday – the most he’s ever allowed in a major or minor league start. #ProfStats
  • Jose Fernandez allowed 12 baserunners against the Phillies Friday – the most he’s ever allowed in a major or minor league start. #ProfStats
  • Jose Fernandez lasted just 4 innings against the Phillies Friday – the first time he’s failed to reach 5 IP in a start since May of 2011 (minors). #ProfStats

Patient Perez

  • It only took Salvador Perez 26 PAs (7 games) to get his 7th BB this year. In 2013 it took him 256 PAs (66 games) to get to 7 BBs. #ProfStats
  • With his BB last Tuesday, Salvador Perez had walked in 6 straight games. Prior to 2014 he’d never walked in more than 2 games in a row. #ProfStats

Double Trouble

  • Tuesday was the @RedSox 22nd career game with 5+ GDP – the most such games by any team in MLB history (Orioles 2nd with 14). #ProfStats
  • Martin Perez got 5 double plays against the Red Sox Tuesday night – just the 58th time a pitcher has received 5+ GDP in a game and the first since 2011. #ProfStats

Putting the K in “Reckord”

  • Masahiro Tanaka‘s 18 Ks in his first 2 career starts are the most since Stephen Strasburg struck out 22 in his first 2 GS back in 2010. #ProfStats
  • Danny Salazar struck out 10 batters in just 3.2 IP Thursday. No pitcher has ever recorded as many strikeouts in fewer than 4 IP. #ProfStats

Super Streaks

  • From 06/27/2010 through 09/02/2012, Justin Verlander went 80 straight starts with 100+ pitches – the longest such streak ever. #ProfStats
  • Francisco Liriano has allowed at least one walk in 70 straight major league starts dating back to 06/19/2011 – the longest active BB streak in baseball. #ProfStats

Strong Starts

  • Through April 14th, Madison Bumgarner has scored more runs than Miguel Cabrera (2-1). #ProfStats
  • Dee Gordon with 4 steals Sunday. He’s just the 2nd infielder in the past five years with a 4 SB game. (Everth Cabrera in 2012) #ProfStats
  • Conor Gillaspie has recorded a hit in all 11 games he’s played this season. He’s batting .341 on the season (career .249 AVG). #ProfStats

Poor Pitching

  • Bartolo Colon let up 9 runs against the Angels Sunday. It was his 4th career game allowing at least 9 ER and his first since 2003. #ProfStats
  • Brett Oberholtzer has now lost 7 straight starts (dating back to 09/07/2013) despite putting up a 3.12 ERA in those games. #ProfStats

Not #ProfStats, but still fascinating:

I hope you enjoyed round 2 of these fun and crazy stats! Let me know in the comments which one was your favorite and don’t forget to share your own stats with us on twitter using the hastag #ProfStats.

*In case you missed it

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Here at Baseball Professor, we are going to be starting a new trend (literally) where I will be tweeting a whole bunch of interesting baseball facts and stats using the hashtag #ProfStats. The best part of it all is that you get to join in on the fun!

Have a cool baseball stat that you’d like to share? Tweet it using the hashtag #ProfStats and your stat could get retweeted or even make it on my next article.

(Plus, @BaseballProf will RT you, too!)

I’ll be posting all the interesting stats I find (and hopefully some that you find as well) in a weekly summary every Tuesday throughout the season. I also tweet them throughout the week as I come across them, so follow me @ZachPincince to see them early as well as to see some bonus stats and facts that don’t end up making it on the article.

Before we’re off and running with the stats, I want to give a little clarity on the kind of information I will be sharing in these articles. For the most part I’m going to stay away from the number gibberish, like informing you that Jose Fernandez’s 5.40 wSL/C in 2013 was 84% higher than the next best mark among qualified pitchers that year (which it was). The few stat geeks like myself who are reading this might find that interesting, but to most of you I might as well have been speaking another language. I’ll try to shy away from the dry stuff like that and post the interesting yet understandable information, like the fact that Wade Miley has more hits than Bryce Harper in 2014 (which he does).

#ProfStats

The Marlins recorded their second win in as many games this season – it took them 11 games to get to two wins last year. #ProfStats

Cracked Aces (Plus Jim Johnson)

Cliff Lee struck out just one batter last Monday which was only the 2nd time he’s done that in the past 6 years & the 1st since 04/11. #ProfStats

Justin Verlander struck out just 2 batters last Monday – the last time he whiffed 2 or fewer batters in a start was 2011. #ProfStats

Adam Wainwright allowed 3 Hs & 4 BBs last Monday – the first time since 2010 where he’s allowed more walks than hits in a start. #ProfStats

Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed 8 runs (6 ER) Friday night which is the most he’s ever allowed in a start in his career. #ProfStats

Shelby Miller allowed 3 home runs Friday night – the first time in his career where he’s allowed that many in one start. #ProfStats

Clay Buchholz allowed 13 hits against the #Brewers Saturday – the most he’s ever allowed in a single start. #ProfStats

Jim Johnson allowed 5 ERs in just 1 IP (first 2 appearances) this year. Last year he pitched 20 IP (and recorded 14 SV) before allowing his 5th ER. #ProfStats

Pitching Like Aces

Jose Fernandez has pitched a quality start in 14 out of his past 15 starts. He has a 1.34 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in those 15 starts. #ProfStats

Mark Buehrle struck out 11 in his 1st start of 2014. This was just his 2nd career start with 10+ Ks – his 1st came back in 2005. #ProfStats

Since the start of 2011 Mark Buehrle (4.04 ERA) has won more games than Cliff Lee (2.87 ERA), 39-38. #ProfStats

Tim Lincecum didn’t allow any walks in his start Thursday- just the second time he’s done that in his past 87 starts. #ProfStats

Infielder Intrigue (Plus CarGo)

Tulo/CarGo combined for 11 WAR in their best seasons and 4 WAR in their worst – a difference of 7 WAR, or one Miguel Cabrera. #ProfStats

Ian Kinsler has career slash of .300/.381/.541 in the month of April and a career .268/.344/.440 line in May-September. #ProfStats

Jed Lowrie is a career .313 hitter in the month of April but a career .254 hitter in all the other months. #ProfStats

Only Emilio

Emilio Bonifacio got his 10th hit in his 13th at bat this year. Last year he got his 10th hit in his 13th game. #ProfStats

In the first 3 games of the season Emilio Bonifacio is hit .688 while the rest of the Cubs hit just .155. He had 39% of Cubs’ hits. #ProfStats

Speed Demons

Rajai Davis is the only player to steal at least 40 bases in both 2012 & 2013. Nobody has more steals than Davis’s 92 since 2012. #ProfStats

Giancarlo Stanton and Adrian Gonzalez both stole a base in their second game of 2014 after stealing just one base in all of 2013. #ProfStats

Not #ProfStats, but Still Fascinating

@BRefPlayIndex: #RedSox Felix Doubront now has 364 career innings, he has never intentionally walked a batter, an #MLB record (first tracked in 1955).

@BRefPlayIndex: #Reds Aroldis Chapman has a 0.95 ERA in relief appearances that come on one day rest, best in #MLB history (requiring 50+ such appearances).

@BRefPlayIndex: #Phillies Cliff Lee has 374 0-2 strikeouts since the beginning of 2008, no other pitcher has 300.

@ESPNStatsInfo: This is the 1st time since 1965 that both New York baseball teams have started a season 0-2.

@ESPNStatsInfo: Emilio Bonifacio is 3rd player since 1900 with 11 hits in 1st 3 games. Others: Cecil Cooper (1982), Ira Flagstead (1926)

@MLBStatoftheDay: Marlins closer Steve Cishek has converted 31 straight save opportunities. In these 31 games, Cishek has not been charged with a run.

@MLBStatoftheDay: Max Scherzer – in 166 starts – is still without a complete game. No active pitcher has more starts and no complete games than Scherzer.

@HighHeatStats: Grady Sizemore went 990 days–but only 45 plate appearances–between MLB homers.

@HighHeatStats: From @Neil_Paine, last year’s Yankees starting day lineup (included Youkilis, Nix, Wells, etc) combined for 0.3 WAR in all of 2013.

@MattSnyderCBS: Brad Miller has 10 career homers and four career multi-HR games.

@ckamka: IBB’s first tracked in 1955. Jose Abreu is first player during that span with a 2-IBB game within first 2 MLB games

@Sullivan_Ranger: Darvish sets ML record for fastest to 500 strikeouts. He did it in 401 2/3 IP. Kerry Wood did it in 404 2/3 innings

Hopefully you enjoyed all these fun and crazy stats! Let me know in the comments which one was your favorite, and don’t forget to share your own stats with us on twitter using the hastag #ProfStats.

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Will Abreu's 30 HR power translate to the majors? Zach thinks it will.

Will Abreu’s 30 HR power translate to the majors? Zach thinks it will.

In Episode 7 of our Baseball Profcast (subscribe on iTunes!), one of the topics discussed was how to value international players.

I admitted that I was skeptical of any international player due to that fact that it’s hard to predict how Cuban stats will translate to the majors, however, that conversation got me thinking:

Exactly how much of a statistical rise or fall should we expect from players that go from the Cuban National Series to Major League Baseball?

To answer that question, I did a statistical comparison between the two different leagues. Since the start of the century, there have been 13 Cuban batters to play in both the Cuban National Series and Major League Baseball. Three of them registered fewer than 300 career at-bats, so I opted to eliminate them to avoid the small sample size outliers. That left me with 10 players.

Method

A study of such colossal important deserves a a well thought out method. I’ve outlined mine below:

  1. Took the Cuban career stats from each player and averaged it out to a per-season stat line
  2. Calculated the projected totals over a 500 AB season to give me an idea of what kind of numbers we could expect if their Cuban stats carried directly over to a full major league season
  3. Did the same thing with their MLB career stats — I averaged them out to a per-season stat line and calculated their projected totals over 500 AB to give me an idea of how their actual major league stats over that span stacked up.

Results

Here are the results of that comparison, with each player’s career Cuban and MLB stats per 500 AB:

Player League H AVG R HR RBI SB K BB
Yasiel Puig Cuba 158 .316 118 22 72 13 64 54
(2013) MLB 160 .319 86 25 55 14 127 47
Yoenis Céspedes
Cuba 156 .311 113 30 99 10 94 73
(2012-2013) MLB 132 .265 71 24 80 11 118 39
Adeiny Hechavarria Cuba 157 .314 91 4 59 10 77 56
(2012-2013) MLB 116 .232 30 4 43 8 96 25
José Iglesias
Cuba 142 .284 72 0 50 7 97 93
(2011-2013) MLB 137 .274 55 5 37 7 92 22
Leonys Martín
Cuba 124 .248 124 14 71 31 87 67
(2011-2013) MLB 127 .254 72 8 54 38 114 31
Dayán Viciedo
Cuba 141 .282 75 18 78 3 84 45
(2010-2013) MLB 132 .264 59 20 66 1 115 27
Alexei Ramírez
Cuba 167 .334 92 18 80 9 77 23
(2008-2013) MLB 139 .277 62 12 59 14 63 27
Yunel Escobar Cuba 136 .271 87 7 57 11 87 55
(2007-2013) MLB 139 .278 68 9 51 4 64 51
Kendrys Morales Cuba 165 .330 84 21 98 2 57 54
(2006-2013) MLB 140 .280 63 23 78 1 98 37
Yuniesky Betancourt Cuba 140 .281 80 11 62 18 109 88
(2005-2013) MLB 130 .261 54 10 56 4 54 18

Table shows career Cuban and MLB stats, averaged per 500 AB. All Cuban stats taken from cuban-play.com.

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"Yo Jeter, I just made $240MM! Let's celebrate!"

“Yo Jeter, I just made $240MM! Let’s celebrate!”

The slew of recent transactions in the baseball world continued yesterday as two former Yankees, Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson, signed with new teams. Cano inked a lucrative 10-year, $240MM deal with the Mariners while Granderson went next door to the Mets for $60MM over the next four years.

While these deals will definitely bolster the bank accounts of both players, they may not bolster their numbers. Yankee Stadium is one of the best ballparks to call home for a hitter, and the Mariners and Mets were among the lowest run scoring teams last year.

What kind of change in production should we expect and how should you value them in 2014? Keep reading to find out!

Also check out our analysis of other notable offseason transactions:

Robinson Cano

Moving from a hitter’s haven to a pitcher’s paradise will definitely have an effect on Cano in terms of power, and that’s evident by looking at his splits since New Yankee Stadium opened in 2009:

  • Yankee Stadium: 79 HR in 1,648 PA (32.9 HR per 685 PA, his annual average over last 5 years)
  • On the Road: 63 HR in 1,723 PA (25.1 HR per 685 PA)
  • Safeco Field: 3 HR in 103 PA (small sample size alert, 20.0 HR per 685 PA)

While he obviously won’t play every game at home, he’ll now be stepping up to the plate in Seattle for about 300 at-bats, which means a slight drop in home runs can be expected. I would peg him for about 24 home runs next year.

In terms of run production, however, the drop may not be too bad

The Yankees 1-2 hitters averaged an OBP of just .326 last year and the Mariner’s projected 1-2 hitters combined, Kyle Seager and Dustin Ackley, have a career OBP of .320. In addition, Yankees 4-5 hitters slugged just .360 last year while the Mariner’s projected 4-5, Justin Smoak and Nick Franklin (who could still be traded since Cano has stolen his job), have a career .384 SLG. I predict that hitting third for a very weak Seattle lineup, Cano’s run production drops slightly and ends up with about 80 R and 90 RBI next year.

If you looked at Cano’s 2013 season with 80 R, 24 HR, and 90 RBI as opposed to the totals of 81 R, 24 HR, and 107 RBI that he actually put up, he would have ranked 23rd instead of 13th last year.

He’s still going to be solid no matter who he plays for, but I think that signing with Seattle bumps him down a few slots in my personal rankings. While before I would have taken Cano in the top five overall, he now slips to the bottom of the first round for me. He’s still one of the most consistent players in the game — he’s averaged 160 games played over the past seven seasons — so while his production will drop a little, Cano is still elite nonetheless. Don’t be afraid to grab him in the first round.

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ryan braun

Ryan Braun did a lot more talking than playing in 2013.

No player in baseball had a tougher season in 2013 than Ryan Braun. He played through neck spasms in April, ended up spending most of June on the DL with a thumb injury, and then was suspended the final 65 games of the season for violating MLB’s drug policy. On top of that he lost about $3.4 million in salary due to the suspension and his team went on to finish with their worst record in the past ten years. Talk about a rough season.

Because of that rough season there are a lot of questions about how well Braun will be able to contribute next year. How good is he without PEDs? What do his numbers from last year mean? Are his injuries finally behind him?

All those questions make it really tricky to value Braun heading into the 2014 season. In our super-early mock draft he was drafted 9th overall, however the votes showed some discretion on whether or not that was a good pick. Where should you draft Braun next year and what kind of numbers should you expect from him in 2014? Let’s find out.

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