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Buy/Sell, Week 4: Looking at the League’s Luckiest (and Unluckiest)

By George Fitopoulos on April 25, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Last week I took a look at some pitchers who were off to hot/cold starts, but now we will take a look at some hitters who may have been a little lucky or unlucky in this first three weeks of the season. I created a quick exercise to determine BABIP luck, which was to subtract a batter’s line drive percentage from his BABIP. Usually a higher line drive percentage equal a higher BABIP, so generally the larger the gap then the luckier the hitter has been.

Of course, I say generally because this doesn’t account for speed, ballpark or anything else, but it’s a good, quick way of giving us a snapshot of who has and hasn’t been lucky.

Top 20 Luckiest Batters

Notes:

Bryan LaHair‘s line drive percentage is a nice 24 percent, but his .545 BABIP is absolutely ridiculous right now. The 6’5, 240-pound first baseman is 5-for-9 (.556) on ground balls so far this season.
I’m a little worried that Jayson Werth is due for some regression. His 12.5 LD% is very bad, but, like LaHair, he’s batting an absurd 9-for-19 (.474) on ground balls.
How does Erick Aybar have a 6.4 percent line drive rate? That’s pitiful.
Emilio Bonifacio won’t have a BABIP of .391 at season’s end, but he could end up somewhere north of .350 thanks to his speed, especially given how his 17.5 percent line drive rate isn’t all that bad.
David Freese has an unsustainably high BABIP (.432), but that’s also the product of a 22.5 percent line drive rate. He’s crushing the ball right now.

Top 20 Unluckiest Batters

Notes:

Curtis Granderson‘s 40.4 line drive percentage is absolutely ridiculous, but it hasn’t resulted in the kind of BABIP you’d expect.
I’m buying hard on Marlon Byrd. That doesn’t mean I think he’s worth an add in all leagues, but he’s completely fallen off the table in fantasy leagues due to his poor start. Now he’s in Boston in a good ballpark and a great lineup, and he has the center field job to himself while Jacoby Ellsbury is down for another month or so. Plus, his line drive rate is 24.4 percent. He’ll start hitting very soon.
Ben Zobrist will turn around. I maintain that he’s a top-40 player given his power/speed combo, and I wouldn’t worry about his sub-Mendoza .175 average. Buy on him in all leagues, especially via trade. He’s a streaky hitter so owners might be frustrated right now.
Neil Walker has his strikeout rate down to 10.2 percent, his line drive rate is 28.3 percent, yet he’s batting just .222. He will come around. Given the early struggles of second basemen on the whole, Walker is definitely someone to buy right now.
One of my major criticisms of Carlos Santana last season was his 15.4 percent line drive rate. This year he’s doubled that. Unfortunately he’s traded fly balls for the extra liners, so hopefully that balances out, but he still strikes out too much to contribute in batting average. That said, he’s walking over 20 percent of the time, too. That’s crazy good and means he’s getting great pitches to hit.
Matt Wieters is hitting line drive 27.5 percent of the time but has a .265 BABIP to show for it. I say this for two reasons: (1) He’s finally getting on the right track, and he’s hitting .294 on the season despite the low-for-his-line-drive-rate BABIP, and (2) he won’t maintain that line-drive rate all season, but his BABIP will go up so expect the .290 average to stick.

And for your perusing pleasure, here’s the complete list of players:

Name	Team	PA	AVG	BABIP	LD%	Diff	GB%	FB%
A.J. Ellis	Dodgers	56	0.279	0.355	18.80%	0.167	43.80%	37.50%
A.J. Pierzynski	White Sox	55	0.340	0.295	27.10%	0.024	41.70%	31.30%
Aaron Hill	Diamondbacks	73	0.238	0.250	15.70%	0.093	31.40%	52.90%
Adam Dunn	White Sox	72	0.246	0.367	26.50%	0.102	29.40%	44.10%
Adam Jones	Orioles	72	0.304	0.302	20.70%	0.095	39.70%	39.70%
Adam LaRoche	Nationals	72	0.286	0.364	26.10%	0.103	30.40%	43.50%
Adam Lind	Blue Jays	63	0.211	0.234	22.90%	0.005	52.10%	25.00%
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	64	0.288	0.283	12.70%	0.156	43.60%	43.60%
Adrian Gonzalez	Red Sox	71	0.302	0.333	17.00%	0.163	34.00%	49.10%
Albert Pujols	Angels	74	0.232	0.267	25.00%	0.017	33.30%	41.70%
Alcides Escobar	Royals	67	0.306	0.346	24.50%	0.101	53.10%	22.40%
Alejandro De Aza	White Sox	72	0.266	0.280	24.50%	0.035	38.80%	36.70%
Alex Avila	Tigers	51	0.244	0.276	28.10%	-0.005	37.50%	34.40%
Alex Gonzalez	Brewers	58	0.264	0.275	23.30%	0.042	27.90%	48.80%
Alex Gordon	Royals	76	0.167	0.205	23.90%	-0.034	45.70%	30.40%
Alex Presley	Pirates	63	0.288	0.348	11.40%	0.234	61.40%	27.30%
Alex Rios	White Sox	61	0.340	0.362	20.80%	0.154	43.80%	35.40%
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	75	0.234	0.240	18.90%	0.051	56.60%	24.50%
Alexei Ramirez	White Sox	68	0.231	0.264	20.40%	0.060	48.10%	31.50%
Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	64	0.233	0.298	19.10%	0.107	51.10%	29.80%
Andre Ethier	Dodgers	74	0.290	0.320	25.90%	0.061	33.30%	40.70%
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	67	0.339	0.382	18.20%	0.200	50.90%	30.90%
Angel Pagan	Giants	73	0.232	0.246	21.00%	0.036	43.50%	35.50%
Aramis Ramirez	Brewers	71	0.185	0.216	17.30%	0.043	36.50%	46.20%
Austin Jackson	Tigers	77	0.258	0.304	26.50%	0.039	34.70%	38.80%
Ben Zobrist	Rays	72	0.175	0.229	24.30%	-0.014	45.90%	29.70%
Billy Butler	Royals	71	0.284	0.309	17.50%	0.134	54.40%	28.10%
Brandon Crawford	Giants	66	0.206	0.231	19.20%	0.039	51.90%	28.80%
Brendan Ryan	Mariners	52	0.190	0.226	15.60%	0.070	37.50%	46.90%
Brennan Boesch	Tigers	73	0.211	0.236	14.00%	0.096	52.60%	33.30%
Brent Morel	White Sox	64	0.172	0.278	22.20%	0.056	47.20%	30.60%
Brett Lawrie	Blue Jays	74	0.294	0.327	19.30%	0.134	56.10%	24.60%
Brian Bogusevic	Astros	65	0.185	0.209	14.00%	0.069	60.50%	25.60%
Brian McCann	Braves	63	0.263	0.240	24.50%	-0.005	34.00%	41.50%
Bryan LaHair	Cubs	50	0.375	0.545	24.00%	0.305	36.00%	40.00%
Buster Posey	Giants	56	0.373	0.410	23.80%	0.172	57.10%	19.00%
Cameron Maybin	Padres	74	0.177	0.244	14.30%	0.101	54.80%	31.00%
Carlos Beltran	Cardinals	76	0.262	0.293	15.20%	0.141	45.70%	39.10%
Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	58	0.278	0.317	16.30%	0.154	58.10%	25.60%
Carlos Lee	Astros	81	0.270	0.273	19.10%	0.082	36.80%	44.10%
Carlos Pena	Rays	75	0.300	0.368	20.00%	0.168	35.00%	45.00%
Carlos Ruiz	Phillies	54	0.265	0.256	13.30%	0.123	51.10%	35.60%
Carlos Santana	Indians	64	0.245	0.273	30.60%	-0.033	44.40%	25.00%
Casey Kotchman	Indians	61	0.148	0.133	17.00%	-0.037	59.60%	23.40%
Chase Headley	Padres	78	0.290	0.333	19.60%	0.137	47.80%	32.60%
Chone Figgins	Mariners	80	0.206	0.277	26.10%	0.016	32.60%	41.30%
Chris Davis	Orioles	56	0.278	0.368	25.60%	0.112	41.00%	33.30%
Chris Johnson	Astros	70	0.294	0.417	35.40%	0.063	37.50%	27.10%
Chris Nelson	Rockies	51	0.239	0.324	23.50%	0.089	61.80%	14.70%
Chris Parmelee	Twins	50	0.250	0.343	25.70%	0.086	20.00%	54.30%
Cliff Pennington	Athletics	70	0.212	0.255	16.40%	0.091	32.70%	50.90%
Clint Barmes	Pirates	53	0.146	0.147	20.00%	-0.053	42.90%	37.10%
Coco Crisp	Athletics	52	0.167	0.190	14.30%	0.047	45.20%	40.50%
Cody Ross	Red Sox	64	0.263	0.313	24.30%	0.070	32.40%	43.20%
Colby Rasmus	Blue Jays	68	0.242	0.255	24.50%	0.010	34.70%	40.80%
Corey Hart	Brewers	67	0.286	0.306	14.60%	0.160	36.60%	48.80%
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	79	0.269	0.293	40.40%	-0.111	31.90%	27.70%
Dan Uggla	Braves	77	0.246	0.280	13.20%	0.148	45.30%	41.50%
Daniel Descalso	Cardinals	52	0.205	0.267	19.40%	0.073	61.30%	19.40%
Daniel Murphy	Mets	75	0.333	0.367	25.00%	0.117	53.30%	21.70%
Danny Espinosa	Nationals	70	0.207	0.282	17.90%	0.103	51.30%	30.80%
Danny Valencia	Twins	64	0.210	0.267	13.00%	0.137	54.30%	32.60%
Darwin Barney	Cubs	70	0.292	0.321	26.30%	0.058	52.60%	21.10%
David DeJesus	Cubs	69	0.259	0.341	25.00%	0.091	34.10%	40.90%
David Freese	Cardinals	63	0.328	0.432	22.50%	0.207	45.00%	32.50%
David Ortiz	Red Sox	70	0.444	0.490	25.90%	0.231	40.70%	33.30%
David Wright	Mets	62	0.365	0.415	32.60%	0.089	39.50%	27.90%
Dayan Viciedo	White Sox	51	0.180	0.200	16.20%	0.038	54.10%	29.70%
Dee Gordon	Dodgers	73	0.239	0.308	20.00%	0.108	51.10%	28.90%
Delmon Young	Tigers	66	0.267	0.333	26.10%	0.072	39.10%	34.80%
Denard Span	Twins	77	0.333	0.387	23.00%	0.157	65.60%	11.50%
Derek Jeter	Yankees	83	0.416	0.418	20.00%	0.218	61.40%	18.60%
Desmond Jennings	Rays	76	0.261	0.294	27.50%	0.019	31.40%	41.20%
Dexter Fowler	Rockies	58	0.224	0.281	23.50%	0.046	44.10%	32.40%
Drew Stubbs	Reds	71	0.258	0.333	16.70%	0.166	62.50%	20.80%
Dustin Ackley	Mariners	75	0.243	0.291	26.80%	0.023	42.90%	30.40%
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	72	0.284	0.291	13.80%	0.153	48.30%	37.90%
Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	76	0.286	0.296	15.50%	0.141	34.50%	50.00%
Elvis Andrus	Rangers	80	0.235	0.263	20.70%	0.056	50.00%	29.30%
Emilio Bonifacio	Marlins	72	0.295	0.391	17.50%	0.216	62.50%	20.00%
Eric Hosmer	Royals	76	0.206	0.192	18.20%	0.010	47.30%	34.50%
Erick Aybar	Angels	68	0.254	0.308	6.40%	0.244	68.10%	25.50%
Evan Longoria	Rays	74	0.339	0.367	15.40%	0.213	42.30%	42.30%
Freddie Freeman	Braves	75	0.275	0.340	30.00%	0.040	28.00%	42.00%
Freddy Galvis	Phillies	61	0.211	0.234	13.30%	0.101	40.00%	46.70%
Gaby Sanchez	Marlins	57	0.218	0.286	9.50%	0.191	38.10%	52.40%
Geovany Soto	Cubs	54	0.140	0.162	18.40%	-0.022	42.10%	39.50%
Gerardo Parra	Diamondbacks	55	0.260	0.275	20.00%	0.075	45.00%	35.00%
Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	58	0.255	0.326	20.90%	0.117	51.20%	27.90%
Gordon Beckham	White Sox	55	0.180	0.243	16.20%	0.081	35.10%	48.60%
Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	70	0.250	0.275	20.90%	0.066	34.90%	44.20%
Howie Kendrick	Angels	67	0.262	0.319	18.80%	0.131	56.30%	25.00%
Hunter Pence	Phillies	71	0.258	0.292	19.60%	0.096	56.90%	23.50%
Ian Desmond	Nationals	76	0.278	0.316	19.00%	0.126	53.40%	27.60%
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	86	0.284	0.254	29.90%	-0.045	34.30%	35.80%
Ian Stewart	Cubs	65	0.183	0.227	20.50%	0.022	45.50%	34.10%
Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	78	0.297	0.313	30.90%	0.004	38.20%	30.90%
Ike Davis	Mets	65	0.131	0.135	12.50%	0.010	55.00%	32.50%
J.D. Martinez	Astros	76	0.286	0.341	12.80%	0.213	57.40%	29.80%
J.J. Hardy	Orioles	73	0.185	0.170	7.40%	0.096	48.10%	44.40%
J.P. Arencibia	Blue Jays	54	0.200	0.273	14.70%	0.126	50.00%	35.30%
Jack Hannahan	Indians	53	0.364	0.441	25.70%	0.184	40.00%	34.30%
James Loney	Dodgers	58	0.240	0.256	25.00%	0.006	38.60%	36.40%
Jamey Carroll	Twins	78	0.232	0.267	16.90%	0.098	67.80%	15.30%
Jason Bartlett	Padres	58	0.163	0.216	13.90%	0.077	44.40%	41.70%
Jason Bay	Mets	57	0.240	0.290	11.80%	0.172	50.00%	38.20%
Jason Heyward	Braves	70	0.306	0.395	24.40%	0.151	37.80%	37.80%
Jason Kipnis	Indians	69	0.237	0.250	15.20%	0.098	41.30%	43.50%
Jason Kubel	Diamondbacks	62	0.291	0.382	35.10%	0.031	35.10%	29.70%
Jay Bruce	Reds	69	0.254	0.283	16.30%	0.120	42.90%	40.80%
Jayson Werth	Nationals	72	0.311	0.383	12.50%	0.258	39.60%	47.90%
Jed Lowrie	Astros	52	0.273	0.324	22.90%	0.095	28.60%	48.60%
Jeff Francoeur	Royals	70	0.227	0.263	24.60%	0.017	47.40%	28.10%
Jemile Weeks	Athletics	85	0.203	0.215	22.40%	-0.009	40.30%	37.30%
Jesus Guzman	Padres	54	0.200	0.263	15.80%	0.105	52.60%	31.60%
Jesus Montero	Mariners	63	0.254	0.271	20.00%	0.071	46.00%	34.00%
Jhonny Peralta	Tigers	61	0.246	0.311	24.40%	0.067	37.80%	37.80%
Jimmy Rollins	Phillies	76	0.229	0.286	20.00%	0.086	45.50%	34.50%
Joe Mauer	Twins	78	0.313	0.345	28.80%	0.057	52.50%	18.60%
Joey Votto	Reds	77	0.276	0.385	32.50%	0.060	37.50%	30.00%
Jonathan Lucroy	Brewers	51	0.286	0.313	17.60%	0.137	41.20%	41.20%
Jordan Schafer	Astros	78	0.273	0.400	25.70%	0.143	37.10%	37.10%
Jose Altuve	Astros	72	0.344	0.396	14.80%	0.248	51.90%	33.30%
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	78	0.200	0.180	18.90%	-0.009	41.50%	39.60%
Jose Reyes	Marlins	72	0.215	0.241	17.50%	0.066	49.10%	33.30%
Jose Tabata	Pirates	55	0.196	0.238	15.00%	0.088	72.50%	12.50%
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	81	0.400	0.400	23.80%	0.162	39.70%	36.50%
Josh Reddick	Athletics	74	0.236	0.254	24.60%	0.008	29.50%	45.90%
Josh Thole	Mets	51	0.366	0.429	14.30%	0.286	51.40%	34.30%
Josh Willingham	Twins	76	0.333	0.372	25.00%	0.122	45.80%	29.20%
Juan Pierre	Phillies	56	0.333	0.346	20.00%	0.146	54.00%	26.00%
Juan Rivera	Dodgers	63	0.263	0.250	15.80%	0.092	49.10%	35.10%
Justin Morneau	Twins	67	0.224	0.231	20.90%	0.022	44.20%	34.90%
Justin Smoak	Mariners	62	0.203	0.250	26.20%	-0.012	42.90%	31.00%
Justin Upton	Diamondbacks	56	0.239	0.303	30.30%	0.000	45.50%	24.20%
Kelly Johnson	Blue Jays	76	0.246	0.268	15.60%	0.112	48.90%	35.60%
Kendrys Morales	Angels	51	0.294	0.350	19.50%	0.155	46.30%	34.10%
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	56	0.200	0.257	16.70%	0.090	63.90%	19.40%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	Mets	58	0.327	0.441	36.10%	0.080	44.40%	19.40%
Kurt Suzuki	Athletics	62	0.200	0.240	12.20%	0.118	32.70%	55.10%
Kyle Seager	Mariners	61	0.267	0.294	27.50%	0.019	29.40%	43.10%
Logan Morrison	Marlins	51	0.302	0.300	29.30%	0.007	39.00%	31.70%
Lucas Duda	Mets	66	0.228	0.263	22.00%	0.043	26.80%	51.20%
Marco Scutaro	Rockies	65	0.224	0.236	22.20%	0.014	46.30%	31.50%
Mark Ellis	Dodgers	72	0.262	0.291	18.50%	0.106	48.10%	33.30%
Mark Reynolds	Orioles	56	0.125	0.231	7.70%	0.154	30.80%	61.50%
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	73	0.254	0.255	20.70%	0.048	43.10%	36.20%
Marlon Byrd	- - -	56	0.115	0.143	24.40%	-0.101	61.00%	14.60%
Martin Prado	Braves	76	0.254	0.276	13.60%	0.140	54.20%	32.20%
Mat Gamel	Brewers	63	0.281	0.333	32.60%	0.007	30.40%	37.00%
Matt Carpenter	Cardinals	52	0.250	0.286	16.70%	0.119	30.60%	52.80%
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	84	0.215	0.224	19.40%	0.030	45.20%	35.50%
Matt Joyce	Rays	62	0.309	0.371	17.90%	0.192	30.80%	51.30%
Matt Kemp	Dodgers	76	0.455	0.488	21.20%	0.276	48.10%	30.80%
Matt Wieters	Orioles	58	0.294	0.265	27.50%	-0.010	40.00%	32.50%
Melky Cabrera	Giants	78	0.294	0.317	18.00%	0.137	57.40%	24.60%
Michael Bourn	Braves	82	0.329	0.393	28.10%	0.112	49.10%	22.80%
Michael Brantley	Indians	62	0.196	0.216	14.00%	0.076	56.00%	30.00%
Michael Cuddyer	Rockies	61	0.322	0.370	27.10%	0.099	47.90%	25.00%
Michael Saunders	Mariners	53	0.229	0.294	25.70%	0.037	28.60%	45.70%
Michael Young	Rangers	72	0.362	0.390	19.70%	0.193	54.10%	26.20%
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	74	0.308	0.300	14.50%	0.155	45.50%	40.00%
Miguel Montero	Diamondbacks	67	0.246	0.293	14.00%	0.153	48.80%	37.20%
Miguel Olivo	Mariners	58	0.161	0.209	18.60%	0.023	39.50%	41.90%
Mike Aviles	Red Sox	65	0.333	0.362	20.00%	0.162	46.00%	34.00%
Mike Moustakas	Royals	64	0.300	0.372	15.60%	0.216	37.80%	46.70%
Mike Napoli	Rangers	64	0.268	0.290	18.90%	0.101	32.40%	48.60%
Nate Schierholtz	Giants	51	0.340	0.317	20.50%	0.112	43.20%	36.40%
Neil Walker	Pirates	59	0.222	0.250	28.30%	-0.033	41.30%	30.40%
Nelson Cruz	Rangers	77	0.257	0.340	22.40%	0.116	36.70%	40.80%
Nick Hundley	Padres	60	0.196	0.216	12.80%	0.088	38.50%	48.70%
Nick Markakis	Orioles	75	0.231	0.260	21.20%	0.048	46.20%	32.70%
Nick Swisher	Yankees	79	0.265	0.269	17.90%	0.090	35.70%	46.40%
Nyjer Morgan	Brewers	50	0.170	0.211	18.40%	0.027	63.20%	18.40%
Orlando Hudson	Padres	58	0.196	0.256	28.60%	-0.030	47.60%	23.80%
Pablo Sandoval	Giants	76	0.333	0.351	25.00%	0.101	38.30%	36.70%
Paul Goldschmidt	Diamondbacks	54	0.208	0.290	15.60%	0.134	56.30%	28.10%
Paul Konerko	White Sox	72	0.338	0.365	21.80%	0.147	47.30%	30.90%
Placido Polanco	Phillies	60	0.196	0.224	20.40%	0.020	53.10%	26.50%
Prince Fielder	Tigers	72	0.328	0.365	20.40%	0.161	50.00%	29.60%
Rafael Furcal	Cardinals	81	0.347	0.403	25.80%	0.145	48.40%	25.80%
Rickie Weeks	Brewers	81	0.188	0.227	12.80%	0.099	40.40%	46.80%
Robert Andino	Orioles	63	0.300	0.395	25.00%	0.145	38.60%	36.40%
Robinson Cano	Yankees	79	0.268	0.273	20.90%	0.064	55.20%	23.90%
Ruben Tejada	Mets	69	0.246	0.319	24.40%	0.075	33.30%	42.20%
Russell Martin	Yankees	55	0.195	0.241	16.70%	0.074	63.30%	20.00%
Ryan Braun	Brewers	74	0.266	0.304	28.60%	0.018	18.40%	53.10%
Ryan Doumit	Twins	55	0.226	0.262	27.90%	-0.017	51.20%	20.90%
Ryan Ludwick	Reds	51	0.200	0.188	20.00%	-0.012	42.90%	37.10%
Ryan Roberts	Diamondbacks	60	0.185	0.220	9.50%	0.125	42.90%	47.60%
Ryan Sweeney	Red Sox	55	0.392	0.455	31.80%	0.137	40.90%	27.30%
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	68	0.224	0.245	12.00%	0.125	48.00%	40.00%
Scott Rolen	Reds	61	0.175	0.227	20.50%	0.022	50.00%	29.50%
Sean Rodriguez	Rays	56	0.200	0.276	20.00%	0.076	46.70%	33.30%
Seth Smith	Athletics	62	0.188	0.200	17.10%	0.029	51.20%	31.70%
Shane Victorino	Phillies	77	0.271	0.263	20.00%	0.063	38.30%	41.70%
Shelley Duncan	Indians	57	0.273	0.333	25.00%	0.083	28.10%	46.90%
Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	72	0.237	0.326	27.90%	0.047	41.90%	30.20%
Starlin Castro	Cubs	77	0.338	0.381	22.20%	0.159	47.60%	30.20%
Todd Helton	Rockies	56	0.220	0.200	23.30%	-0.033	34.90%	41.90%
Torii Hunter	Angels	68	0.279	0.395	28.60%	0.109	47.60%	23.80%
Travis Hafner	Indians	60	0.333	0.371	24.30%	0.128	43.20%	32.40%
Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	67	0.293	0.313	18.00%	0.133	50.00%	32.00%
Vernon Wells	Angels	64	0.222	0.220	24.50%	-0.025	39.60%	35.80%
Will Venable	Padres	58	0.264	0.295	14.60%	0.149	53.70%	31.70%
Willie Bloomquist	Diamondbacks	54	0.226	0.308	23.70%	0.071	50.00%	26.30%
Wilson Ramos	Nationals	50	0.227	0.250	13.50%	0.115	62.20%	24.30%
Yadier Molina	Cardinals	67	0.288	0.286	30.80%	-0.022	38.50%	30.80%
Yoenis Cespedes	Athletics	73	0.242	0.297	22.00%	0.077	34.10%	43.90%
Yonder Alonso	Padres	65	0.196	0.239	23.90%	0.000	45.70%	30.40%
Yunel Escobar	Blue Jays	84	0.231	0.243	15.50%	0.088	64.80%	19.70%
Zack Cozart	Reds	74	0.288	0.346	13.50%	0.211	50.00%	36.50%

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Daily Dozen: Wainwright Back on Track

By George Fitopoulos on April 25, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Every morning we recap the previous night’s games, news and notes so that you’re up-to-date on everything baseball. As always you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) and like us on Facebook to get updated, fantasy-relevant news, tidbits and analysis.

1. On Saturday I wrote that Adam Wainwright‘s biggest problem this year was locating his curveball. Well, last night Wainwright (6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 7 K/1 BB) took a step in the right direction as he brought up his called strike percentage from 6.67 percent to 12.33 percent in one start. He threw his curveball ~30 percent of the time last night, which is more at his norm for his career so it could be that he turned a corner sooner than I expected.

2. Yu Darvish (8.1 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 10 K/2 BB) finally put together a great start and go figure it’s against the New York Yankees. It’s obvious his control was better but here’s how much better it was: He threw strikes 68.9 percent of the time (56.8% before) and first-pitch strikes 63.6 percent of the time (48% before). It looks like he’s finally getting comfortable on the mound and if he can learn how to best use his vast arsenal of pitches he could be a huge contributor in fantasy this year.

3. The forgotten man in fantasy, David Ortiz, has been on an absolute tear this season (.444/.486/.714). Of course, his .490 BABIP will go south eventually, but I do like that his strikeouts are right around his career-low level from last year. Yes it sucks that in most formats he only qualifies as a utility player, but there are ways to work around it if he’s going to put up another 2011-type season.

4. Ortiz’s teammate, Carl Crawford, is getting his elbow checked again to make sure that there isn’t something more serious going on. Also getting a second opinion is Michael Pineda, who has been battling shoulder soreness since March.

5. Tommy Milone did it again last night (8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 K/0 BB), pitching eight shutout innings, using the same approach as before — using his controlled fastball to set up his nearly great changeup. He’s not going to walk (or strikeout) a lot of batters, but he has been effective so far thanks to his ballpark and ability to keep the ball on the ground around the league average 44.3 percent. Think of him as a poor man’s Tim Hudson.

6. Finally Mat Latos (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 K/2 BB) brings us a quality start we can hang out hope hats on! My colleague Bryan Curley thinks that Great American Ballpark is going to be the death of him, but he’s actually pitched better at home than on the road in this short season. All that being said, I’m buying low on Latos and you’ll see more reasons why in today’s buy/sell article.

7. If you’re in a dynasty league and haven’t paid attention to what Orioles’ pitching prospect Dylan Bundy is doing in Single-A it’s time. He’s started four games and pitched 13 innings with no hits, one walk, and 21 strikeouts. Yes, he’s only in Single-A and just 19 years old, but he’s worth owning in a dynasty league (depending on your rules of course) for his long-term potential.

8. Another minor leaguer, Travis Snider, could get promoted soon with Eric Thames not producing as well as the team hoped. Snider is hitting .405 with 23 RBI in 18 games so far.

9. Nationals’ 3B Ryan Zimmerman did not get favorable news about his shoulder and could be headed to the disabled list. It’s a shame, but we could be looking at another Scott Rolen-type player who is great when on the field, but those moments are becoming rare.

10. It was nice to see Johan Santana (6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 11 K/2 BB) dominate like the days of old, but it’s troubling that he hasn’t had any run support this season. Seriously, the Mets haven’t score a single run for him while he’s been on the mound.

11. Matt Capps might have four saves, but a 5.14 ERA/6.06 FIP and 2.57 K/9 are not going to cut it in the ninth inning for much longer. With Glen Perkins struggling, look for Brian Duensing or Anthony Swarzak to get a shot at closing games. The Twins don’t have many options.

12. Not only does Tony Campana have blazing speed, but he apparently has the umpires on his side as well. Last night he was called safe on two occasions where he didn’t even touch the base! <sarcasm>If the umps aren’t going to call him out on the basepaths then Campana will probably steal 60 bases this year. </sarcasm>

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Daily Dozen: Bard Notches First Win

By George Fitopoulos on April 24, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

1. Daniel Bard finally got his first win of the season, but he did it as a reliever! There has been a lot of chatter about whether the Red Sox are going to keep him in the bullpen, but all indications are that he is going to make his scheduled start on Friday. Now, I’m no fortune teller, but putting Bard in the bullpen makes the most sense given that Aaron Cook has looked great in Triple-A. It was mentioned in last night’s Red Sox broadcast that Alfredo Aceves, while he can dial it up to 95 mph, doesn’t throw hard naturally which could be forcing him to overthrow on his pitches. He’s also mentioned that he’s not comfortable closing games. That’s not exactly what you want your closer saying.

2. In other Red Sox news, Will Middlebrooks is absolutely tearing it up in Triple-A as he now has a .371 average with eight home runs and 25 RBI. He snapped a four-game home run streak in yesterday’s opening game of a doubleheader, but quickly started another one back up with a three-run homer in the nightcap. Unfortunately for him Kevin Youkilis stands in the way and the Red Sox are not going to bench (or trade) a player who is guaranteed $13 million. And it’s not like they are in need of a DH either.

3. Tim Lincecum showed some signs of life, but his fastball still sat in the 89-91 mph range. He’s using his changeup more (28% up from 11% last year), which is keeping his strikeouts up (18.85% whiffs). He’s becoming a different type of pitcher and once he gets in a groove I expect him to be in the 15-20 range among starting pitchers.

4. Another pitcher who is somewhat changing the way he pitches is Jake Peavy, except he’s getting great results. He tossed a three-hit shutout last night and now has a 1.88 ERA and 26:4 K:BB ratio. He’s relying mostly on two pitches (42% fastball, 33% slider), which just happen to be his two best pitches in his arsenal. I still think he’s a sell-high because the injury history scares me, but enjoy the ride because this looks to be legit.

5. As a Hunter Pence owner, I am a little worried about this shoulder injury that has come up in the last day or so. He’s getting an MRI today so we should know more about the situation soon.

6. Staying in the outfield, Allen Craig is in the midst of a minor league rehab assignment and is hitting the ball very well. He’s 4-for-7 with a home run in his first two games and looks to be about a week or two away from joining the Cardinals. If you have a DL or bench spot to stash him I would.

7. Blue Jays closer Sergio Santos will not be ready to join the club when he’s eligible to come off the 15-day DL as he’s been instructed not to throw for 10-14 days. I covered Francisco Cordero yesterday, but he just got a little more valuable.

8. Pablo Sandoval and Derek Jeter are two hitters who are off to great starts. Sandoval extended his hitting streak to 16 games yesterday while Jeter turned in a 4-for-5 performance.

9. Some news came out of the Phillies organization yesterday that Ryan Howard will not do any baseball activities for another week before starting his comeback, while Chase Utley experienced some pain while fielding at second base. It’s being speculated that Utley could see some time at first base this season, but it’s hard to see a healthy Howard and/or Jim Thome playing anywhere other than first base so I’m not sure that will last very long.

10. Alex Rodriguez finally recorded his first hit, a home run, off a left-handed pitcher this season so it’s nice to see have some success against pitchers he has a career .273/.391/.532 slash against southpaws.

11. Poor Jair Jurrjens was demoted to Triple-A and Tim Hudson looks ready to take his place this weekend. If Hudson is somehow unowned in your league, pick him up. He’s always underrated in fantasy.

12. There was some more bad news for Chris Young owners as he’s likely to miss closer to three weeks (if not more) with his shoulder injury. Gerardo Parra remains a solid replacement option in the interim.

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Daily Dozen: The Humber Games

By George Fitopoulos on April 23, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

1. Whether you think Brendan Ryan went around or not on that last pitch, you have to acknowledge the accomplishment by Philip Humber (9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 9 K/0 BB). His perfect game is the 21st in major league history and the fourth since 2009. I would definitely pick him up in mixed leagues.

2. If you’re in a redraft league it’s time to drop Michael Pineda. Reports were that he couldn’t get through 20 pitches over the weekend before having to shut it down because of discomfort in his shoulder. I wouldn’t drop him in a keeper league yet as there is still more news to be gathered and Pineda’s long term potential is still through the roof.

3. With the Red Sox getting rained out, Daniel Bard will get skipped in the rotation, which makes him available for relief the next day or two. Could it be possible that Bard makes an appearance, doesn’t let up a home run (a rare feat these days) and the Red Sox just call up Aaron Cook (20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) to take Bard’s spot? It’s not likely, but the Red Sox bullpen is an absolute mess right now.

4. A couple of pitchers landed on the disabled list this weekend, but both the Blue Jays and Phillies say that Sergio Santos and Cliff Lee won’t be out longer than the 15 days. While Santos is out, Francisco Cordero will get the save opportunities. If you’re desperate for saves pick him up, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t return good ratios.

5. Cory Luebke (8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 5 K/2 BB) outpitched Roy Halladay (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K/4 BB) on Saturday and has quickly rebounded from a rough first start of the season. In his last three starts, he’s pitched 20.1 innings with a 0.89 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 14 K/7 BB.

6. It’s been a rough couple of starts for Justin Masterson (Last 3 games: 13.2 IP, 21 H, 15 ER, 5 K/11 BB) since his dazzling eight-inning, 10-strikeout performance in his first start. It’s the same song and dance with Masterson, who still cannot figure out left-handed hitters (12.2 IP, 18 H, 13 ER, 5 K/8 BB).

7. He’s human! Aroldis Chapman (1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 K/2 BB) walked his first two batters yesterday and now has a 18:2 K:BB ratio for the season. At some point the Reds needs to put him in the rotation, but for the time being Reds fans will get to enjoy a pretty close to unhittable setup man/closer combination at the end of games.

8. With news that Marlon Byrd is headed to Boston, Tony Campana will get a lot more playing time, which means if you need steals pick him up. Last year he stole 24 bases in 143 at-bats.

9. Reason #860,324 why wins are a useless stat: While Erik Bedard is 0-4 on the season he has been useful in fantasy in his 24 innings with a 2.67 ERA and 6.37 K/9. He has been a little wild (3.75 BB/9, 1.47 WHIP), but that’s alright for a No. 5 or 6 starter. As long as he’s healthy he should be effective.

10. Speaking of health, Rafael Furcal (.369/.423/.523) looks to be on top of his game right now, but the lack of steals (2) really hurts his value because he doesn’t bring much else other than batting average and some runs.

11. How about those fleet-footed Blue Jays? Yesterday, they stole five bases on Humberto Quintero, including steals by Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia. I’ll be honest that I didn’t see this game, but if these were legit steals the Royals’ battery should be embarrassed of themselves.

12. It’s official, Francisco Liriano (5 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 4 K/4 BB) is done in fantasy.

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#TheseAreStats

By George Fitopoulos on April 21, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It’s time that Baseball Professor makes more of a footprint in the fantasy baseball community. This is why we are starting a trend (literally) called “These Are Stats” and it’s easy for you to join in! If you come across a stat that you find worth sharing just tweet it and put #TheseAreStats in the tweet. We will retweet our favorites and could even put them in our article with your twitter handle. Let’s spread the word!

Entering Friday’s game, Jose Bautista had just 14 home runs in his prior 77 games and a .250 batting average in his prior 256 at-bats. — courtesy of Ray Flowers @BaseballGuys

On June 3, 2011 Ivan Nova lost 3-2 to the Angels. Since then he’s started 19 games with a 15-0 record.

Curtis Granderson loves to pull the ball, and this year he has all six home runs along with a .462 batting average and 1.192 slugging percentage when he hits it to right field. In his three years with the Yankees he has hit 62 of his 71 (87.3%) home runs to right field and has a .436 average and 1.017 slugging percentage.

Speaking of the Yankees’ short right field porch, Justin Morneau has reaped the benefits in his limited exposure to the field. In 37 at-bats he has four home runs with a .459/.524/.919 slash.

Here’s a Red Sox 100th anniversary stat: The average annual salary in the U.S. when Fenway Park opened in 1912 was $1,033; Alex Rodriguez made $904.55 per minute today. — courtesy of Peter Abraham @PeteAbe

In the last four days, John Mayberry has come up with the bases loaded three times and has popped out in each at bat. — courtesy of David Hale @DavidHaleTNJ

Some numbers on Matt Kemp‘s hot start: He has homered in 13.1 percent of his at-bats and currently has a .485 batting average and .525 on-base percentage. Even more impressive is that this power streak has come with half of his hits being ground balls. Yup, you guessed it, his home run per fly ball percentage is a cool 63.6 percent.

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Buy/Sell, Week 3: Stop, It’s Hammel Time

By George Fitopoulos on April 21, 2012 | Comments { 5 }

This week’s buy/sell is going to focus on those guys on the mound throwing 60 feet, six inches. Every starter has about three starts under his belt and while that’s still a small sample size I think we can start drawing some conclusions on who is for real and who you should cut bait with.

Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles

The good: 8.53 K/9, 59.2 GB%, 10.6 SwStrk%
The bad: 3.35 BB/9

I mentioned in Friday’s Daily Dozen that I am buying Hammel‘s start and now I really get to tell you why. He’s using his two-seam fastball (39.1% up from 13.1%), which acts like a sinker, more than previous seasons and that explains his huge spike in induced ground balls. According to BrooksBaseball.net, his sinker has been put in play 20 times and it has been put on the ground 14 times (70%).

As for the strikeouts, he’s been using his slider more this year (26.2% up from 17.1%), which is his out pitch. He throws it on 31.9 percent of two-strike counts with 72.4 percent of them going for strikes (28.6% whiffs). Overall, his slider has been put in play just 12.7 percent of the time.

Do I expect him to keep a sub-3.00 ERA and strike out more than eight batters per nine? No, but he could definitely approach 7.25 K/9 range and maintain a 3.30 ERA even in the competitive AL East. If you have the luxury to sit him in the tougher matchups he’ll return you even better numbers.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

The good: 9.22 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 47.7 GB%, 10.3 SwStrk%
The bad: 89.4 mph fastball, 35.7 HR/FB, 46.7 LOB%, 19.3% curveball usage

If you drafted Wainwright then you have to preach patience with him. There was no way that he was going to automatically become the Wainwright of old right away seeing as he only had a couple of starts in March to warm himself up from Tommy John surgery. The good signs are that his strikeout and walk numbers are right in line with his career averages and he’s still inducing a good amount of ground balls, albeit not as many as before.

The biggest difference in his game right now is his effectiveness with his curveball, which is really his best pitch. In 2010 before the injury, he was throwing his curveball 29 percent of the time (19.3% this year) and he was throwing it for a called strike 18.64 percent of the time (6.67% this year).

On top of the bad luck with home runs and not stranding runners on base, Wainwright is struggling to get feel for his best pitch, which is why he’s struggled so much to start the season. If you can buy on Wainwright now I would, but if you own him maybe it’s time to sit him until he gets things figured out. He could be in for a big second half of the season.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians

The good: Nothing
The bad: Fastball velocity (92.1 mph) and usage (43%), 5.50 BB/9, 5.50 K/9, 40.4 GB%

There’s nothing encouraging about Jimenez’s start to this season as everything is trending in the wrong direction. He’s walking more batters, striking out fewer and inducing fewer ground balls. Also, the velocity of his fastball and sinker has dropped five miles per hour in the span of two years. Despite the drop in velocity, he’s throwing his fastball more than ever before while his sinker and slider are being used less frequently.

He could be hiding an injury, but until someone comes forward with something we are left to just wonder just what happened to this dominant pitcher from 2010.

I don’t think he’s drop worthy yet and you definitely won’t be able to trade him for anything of value at this point, which means the best course of action is to just stash him on your bench and hope he puts together a string of quality starts to bring his value back up.

Quick Notes:

- There are two pitchers who have shown a great improvement in control who I think bear watching; Colby Lewis (0.46 BB/9, career 3.47 BB/9) and Edwin Jackson (1.42 BB/9, career 3.62 BB/9).

- Daniel Hudson is off to another slow start, but if last year taught us anything it’s that you should be patient with him. Last year he walked 3.56 batters per nine in April, but just 1.78 from May-Sept. He’s also inducing more ground balls this year (45.7 GB%, 41.7 GB% in 2011).

- Bryan Curley pointed out that Jake Peavy is looking good, which probably presents you with a nice selling opportunity. His spotty health history and the ballpark he plays in worry me and I would try to get what I can from him. All it takes is one bad start for his value to plummet in owners’ eyes.

- I would sell high on Kyle Lohse to anyone who is buying because there’s no way he is going to maintain a .172 BABIP. I don’t care how good his control is, if you can flip him for a top-30 pitcher I would do it in a heartbeat.

- Tomorrow will be judgment day for Francisco Liriano. After three rough outings to start the season, I’m giving him one more chance to prove to me that he’s worth owning. The only positive sign so far is that his velocity is actually trending up (90 mph, 91 mph, 93 mph), which was not the case in his other disastrous seasons. His biggest issue right now is obviously his control.

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Daily Dozen: The Grandy-man Can

By George Fitopoulos on April 20, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

1. Curtis Granderson made history last night by becoming the first player in Yankees history to hit three home runs (in his first three at-bats, mind you) and go 5-for-5 in the same game. Just in case you forgot how much of a force he can be in fantasy there’s your reminder.

2. Staying with the Yankees, Eduardo Nunez looks to get more playing time with Brett Gardner on the disabled list. He’ll split time between the outfield, third base, shortstop and second base and has enough speed to ensure you don’t miss Gardner too much. He already has two steals in just 21 plate appearances.

3. Speaking of steals, Emilio Bonifacio (9 steals) and Dee Gordon (8) look to be the early favorites to lead the league. The big difference between the two are the walks, and they’re why I would rather own Bonifacio (9.6 BB% since last year) over Gordon (4.4 BB%). Sure, Gordon’s walking more this year, but I need to see it for a longer period of time before I’m totally in on him. A lack of patience at the plate combined with streaky hitting will leave Gordon prone to longer droughts on the basepaths.

4. So far the move from the NL West to the AL East has been very positive for Jason Hammel. He turned in another great outing yesterday striking out 10 over six innings en route to his second win of the season and leaving him with 2.37 ERA (2.86 FIP/3.05 xFIP) and 1.11 WHIP. It looks like the success is due to a sinking, two-seam fastball, which he is throwing more often. I’m ready to buy Hammel and I’ll go into more detail in our weekly buy/sell article either today or tomorrow.

5. The Cardinals placed the old Lance Berkman on the 15-day disabled list with a calf injury. I can’t say I didn’t warn you, and his age/injury issues were a main reason why we at Baseball Professor were down on him this year. While he’s out, expect Matt Carpenter (minor league slash of .305/.406/.468 2010-11 minor leagues) to get some increased playing time at first base.

6. Sure, Yu Darvish held a very good Detroit offense to one run over 6.1 innings while striking out five, however, walking five batters is going to get him in trouble in the future, and until he can fix these control issues he’s not going to be a top 30 starting pitcher.

7. Maybe I was a little premature in announcing Edwin Jackson‘s arrival, but despite getting hit hard last night he didn’t issue any walks. Say what you want about his past performances, but if he keeps up this kind of control he will be useful in fantasy.

8. You’re time to buy low on Albert Pujols is running out. His three doubles last night feel like he’s ready to start hitting some home runs. And you were worried why again?

9. Freddie Freeman has looked horrible at the plate so far (3.8 BB%/32.1 K%), but his two home runs last night are hopefully a sign that he’s ready to turn it around some. Meanwhile, Jason Heyward stole his fifth base of the season and leaves head-to-head leaguers screaming: Hey man, save some for the other weeks!

10. There’s that upside we’ve all seen in Mike Minor! His eight-inning, nine-strikeout performance last night makes two very good starts in a row for the post-hype sleeper. Of course, his outing is less impressive when you account for Justin Upton and Chris Young being out of the Diamondbacks lineup

11. The Athletics have to be pleased with Tom Milone up to this point as he’s getting it done despite not generating many ground balls (42.4 GB%) or whiffs (5.8 SwStrk%). However, when he does generate the rare whiff it’s usually because of his changeup, which batters swing at 57 percent of the time but miss 12.5 percent (MLB Avg: 12.1%).

12. We end today with two pitchers who dominated sucky offenses. Vance Worley struck out 11 Padres in seven shutout innings and Josh Tomlin shut down the Mariners over eight innings striking out seven batters. I refuse to believe in Tomlin despite his great control as I just don’t think he offers that much in fantasy, but Worley is an interesting streaming option in standard, 10-team leagues.

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Glossary of Common Terms

We've developed a few unique stats here that we reference throughout many of our posts. Each of these has been carefully created by analyzing dozens of stats from the last 10 years.

xBA (Expected Batting Average)
A measure of what a player's batting average should have been. Similar to FIP, xFIP, tERA or SIERA for pitchers.

xBABIP (Expected BABIP)
A measure of what a player's BABIP should have been. Was Player X's .325 BABIP high or low? xBABIP answers this.

PSR (Position Scarcity Rating)
Much is made of position scarcity in fantasy baseball but how exactly do you quantify it? Using a player rating formula we've developed we're able to assess the relative strength or weakness of each position and adjust each player's rating accordingly.

About George Fitopoulos

Buy/Sell, Week 4: Looking at the League’s Luckiest (and Unluckiest)

Top 20 Luckiest Batters

Notes:

Top 20 Unluckiest Batters

Notes:

Daily Dozen: Wainwright Back on Track

Daily Dozen: Bard Notches First Win

Daily Dozen: The Humber Games

#TheseAreStats

Buy/Sell, Week 3: Stop, It’s Hammel Time

Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians

Quick Notes:

Daily Dozen: The Grandy-man Can

Daily Fantasy Notes

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Glossary of Common Terms

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About George Fitopoulos

Top 20 Luckiest Batters

Notes:

Top 20 Unluckiest Batters

Notes:

Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians

Quick Notes:

Recent Articles

Glossary of Common Terms

New Posts

Awesome Fantasy Resources

Fantasy Baseball Blogs

MLB Team Blogs

Archives

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