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Player Profile #99: Buster Posey | C | SFG

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

We all know about the hit that ended Buster Posey‘s 2011 season, but what we don’t know if whether it will have any lingering effects in 2012. Reports of his recovery this offseason have been positive, but there’s not telling how his leg will react to the rigors of a 162-game schedule. This is the risk you take on with Posey because as a hitter you know what you’re getting: a disciplined, .300 hitter who can also hit for pretty good power.  Some people call him Joe Mauer light, but he has a chance to be better if he shows his power is consistent.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and produces similar to 2010 numbers
Similar players: Joe Mauer (MIN), Miguel Montero (ARI), Billy Butler (KC)
Worst case scenario: Isn’t able to make it through whole 2012 season

Strengths

Batting average, plate discipline. At 25, Posey is already a very selective hitter, which will help him keep his batting average up. His 22 percent O-Swing% before he got injured was well below the league average (30.6%).

Weaknesses

Ballpark, injury. We’ve talked about the injury concerns, but he’s also struggled to hit at home (.246 BA, .138 ISO at home) in his young career. Just for comparison, Posey has a .334 BA and .192 ISO on the road.

ADP Report (59.8)

Currently, Posey is going fourth among catchers behind Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli and Brian McCann. That seems about right to me, but what I can’t get on board with is taking him in the sixth round when so many quality bats are still available at other positions. However, there is a huge drop off at catcher with Alex Avila around the 11th round so you will want to make suer you grab your catcher before they are all gone.

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Player Profile #110: Jonathan Papelbon | RP | PHI

By on January 29, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

If you lived in New England you would think Jonathan Papelbon sucked, but it’s quite the opposite as he’s been one of the best closers over the last six years. Well, Boston fans finally got their wish and Papelbon is now pitching in the NL East. First, he should benefit from the switch just based on not having to face the Yankees offense 18 times per year. Papelbon is a high-strikeout reliever with good control who, in his worst year, is probably as good as an average Brian Wilson. That’s pretty damn good.

Best case scenario: Best closer in fantasy
Similar players: Mariano Rivero (NYY), John Axford (MIL), Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
Worst case scenario: Brian Wilson (SF)

Strengths

Strikeouts, consistency, league. We’ve covered the strikeouts, but keep in mind that his 16.8 SwStr% was tops in the majors among qualifying relievers. He’s been doing this for six seasons now so you shouldn’t expect any surprises.

Weaknesses

Fly balls. Papelbon has only had one season where his ground ball percentage was higher than 39 percent (49.2% in 2008) so he’s always had to deal with a high amount of fly balls. While Citizen’s Bank Ballpark isn’t friendly to those types of pitchers, neither was Fenway Park so there shouldn’t be much change there.

ADP Report (103.9)

Papelbon has finished in the top 100 (in terms of PSR rank) in two of his last three seasons so an ADP this high is definitely warranted. A reliever who can get you 80-90 strikeouts is a huge commodity to have on your roster, but you’ll have to pay for it. Obviously, we at Baseball Professor don’t condone drafting closers early, but if you choose to do so Papelbon is about as sure as it gets.

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Player Profile #111: Brian Wilson | RP | SFG

By on January 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Amidst all the World Series hype and beard trimmings (or lack thereof), Brian Wilson went into the 2011 season as one of the game’s most exciting closers. Of course two injuries, first an oblique and then a strained right elbow, limited Wilson’s playing time and possibly contributed to a subpar stat line. He was never known for good control, but his 12.8 walk percentage was a career worst by 2.6 percentage points. It also didn’t help that his strikeout rate dropped from 29.9 percent to 22.2, but let’s chalk it up to a down year and start all over again in 2012 shall we? RotoDiamond’s Karl de Vries also gave us his take on Wilson when he answered one of our top 100 offseason questions.

Best case scenario: Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
Similar players: Carlos Marmol (CHC), Sergio Santos (TOR), John Axford (MIL)
Worst case scenario: His right elbow injury creeps up again in 2012

Strengths

Strikeouts, ground ball percentage, offense. As long as Wilson goes into 2012 healthy, I expect his strikeouts to rise back up to his career norm, which between 2008-2010 was 10.88 strikeouts per nine innings. You have to like that his offense plays a lot of low-scoring games because that increases his appearances and save opportunities. He’s also kept the ball in the park with the best of them, posting a 0.36 HR/9 over the last three seasons.

Weaknesses

Control. It’s not just his persona that is uncontrollable, he gives up a lot of walks, but if he can bring it back to a manageable 8-9 percent he’d be just fine.

ADP Report (113.7)

Looks like the public can be forgiving because an ADP this high for a closer is nothing to sneeze at. He’s currently going sixth among all closers and while some pitcher after him are safer options, none of them have quite the upside Wilson possesses.

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Player Profile #112: Adam Lind | 1B | TOR

By on January 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Maybe I’m just a sucker, but I can’t get Adam Lind‘s 2009 season out of my head. Was it a fluke or will he one day get back to that level? Right now it looks like 2009 is the outlier, which isn’t good news for those who have invested in him in keeper leagues. Since 2009, his plate discipline has deteriorated to the point where he hasn’t posted an OBP higher than .295 or  batting average higher than .251. He’s only 28 so there is still some hope that he returns to a 2009 level, but it will be (1) unpredictable and (2) unsustainable, which makes Lind a tough guy to believe in for any season.

Best case scenario: Another 2009 season
Similar players: Mark Trumbo (LAA), Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), David Ortiz (BOS)
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

Power, line drive percentage. While his peak power was in 2009 (.257 ISO) he hasn’t been bad since, posting a .188 ISO in both 2010 and 2011. He also has a knack for hitting line drives (20.2 LD% over last 3 years), which helps him keep his average as high as it is. Yes, I just said that and you should be worried.

Weaknesses

OBP, vs. lefties, steals. Let’s get this out of the way, Lind is not going to contribute in steals and his struggles against left-handed pitching has been with him his entire career. His OBP has been a wreck since he posted a nice .370 in 2009 and it’s because he swings at far too many pitches outside the strike zone. His O-Swing% in 2011 was 37.1 compared to 24.7 percent in 2009. That stat right there makes me worry the most that Lind may never get back to 2009 again.

ADP Report (149.2)

I certainly understand why the public is waiting so long to draft Lind and it’s because he is looking more and more like Carlos Pena than Paul Konerko. He also loses his outfield eligibility this season because he played primarily at first base and DH in 2011. As Lind’s career year falls further out of memory he will continue to fall in drafts and rightfully so. Of course, he could revert back to 2009 and prove us all wrong again, but I’m not holding my breath.

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Player Profile #113: Martin Prado | 3B/OF | ATL

By on January 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

He doesn’t walk and he makes a lot of contact. His name is Martin Prado and he lives and dies with his BABIP. If Prado doesn’t hit close to .300 then you’re going to be disappointed. He doesn’t have enough power or speed to contribute elsewhere without his batting average. The good news is that before 2011, Prado’s lowest BABIP was .331 when he had at least 250 plate appearances so his .266 mark last season should improve quite a bit. If he can hit back around .300 he should be a great source of runs while bringing some moderate power as well. Add in his position flexibility and you have a quality fantasy player.

Best case scenario: 2011′s Melky Cabrera (SF) without the steals
Similar players: Dexter Fowler (COL), Nick Markakis (BAL), light version of Michael Young (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Another 2011 season

Strengths

Batting average, runs, home park. We’ve covered the fact that Prado is a .300 hitter on a normal year and with that .300 batting average comes 90-100 runs, which is very good for a third baseman/outfielder. He’s also very comfortable hitting at home with a .309/.349/.458 career slash at Turner Field.

Weaknesses

Health, dependent on BABIP. Hopefully there are no long term repercussions from Prado’s staff infection in his leg last year because it clearly had an effect on his production when he returned from it. Also a player that fits Prado’s profile (contact hitter, doesn’t draw walks) will need a little luck on his side to maintain consistent success over a full season.

ADP Report (191.1)

This might be the most the public disagrees with the professors in our entire top 200 ranks. To me, Prado going in the 20th round of a standard league draft is ridiculously low. Given that he has position eligibility at two fairly shallow positions (especially if you’re in a five OF league) he should be going at least in the top 140. All you have to do is look at his PSR rank in his breakout 2010 season (79) to know the kind of upside he brings and why he should be a top 120 pick.

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Player Profile #114: Freddie Freeman | 1B | ATL

By on January 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Freddie Freeman did not have a friendly start to the 2011 season, but it ended with quite a bang. Over his final 114 games (4+ months), Freeman hit 17 home runs with a .300/.356/.479 line, but because of his poor start his overall numbers weren’t as good as they could’ve been. While Freeman lacks the power upside of a top tier first baseman he could develop better power as the years go on, but 2012 expectations should be tempered. It’s not a good sign that his strikeouts rose in his first year outside the minors, but you would expect that to improve as he continues to improve his approach at the plate.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Carlos Lee (HOU), Eric Hosmer (KC), Adam Lind (TOR)
Worst case scenario: James Loney (LAD)

Strengths

Vs. righties. Freeman has it down pat against right-handed pitchers with a .299 batting average, .171 ISO and 9.3 walk percentage. That’s compared to a .275 batting average, .156 ISO and 6.4 walk percentage against left-handers.

Weaknesses

Vs. lefties, plate discipline. We covered Freeman’s troubles against lefties, but it also doesn’t help that the NL East has two of the better left-handed starters in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Also, Freeman did post a nice walk rate in his rookie season (8.3%), but his 36.8 O-Swing% and 11.5 SwStr% were both well above league average.

ADP Report (121.4)

It seems like there’s a lot of belief that Freeman will fix his plate approach to have a more consistent and successful season in 2012. If he can cut down on his swings on pitches outside the strike zone he should be able to make more contact and, in effect, cut down on his strikeouts. I think Freeman is a lock for .270/20/80 with the upside of .300/25/90 for 2012.

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Player Profile #115: Shaun Marcum | SP | MIL

By on January 27, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It seems that Shaun Marcum has shaken off the injury bug after putting up consecutive, near-200-inning seasons. He was one of my favorites coming into 2011, but I was disappointed with his first year in the National League. His walk rate went up (6.9 BB% up from 5.4%), strikeout rate went down (19.2 K% down from 20.6%) and his ground ball rate continued to fall (37.2 GB% down from 38.4%). There’s nothing really wrong with Marcum as a pitcher, but his upside is limited and in today’s world where quality pitching is so plentiful Marcum is basically your middle-of-the-road starter.

Best case scenario: Matt Cain (SF)
Similar players: Alexi Ogando (TEX), John Danks (CHW), Ted Lilly (LAD)
Worst case scenario: Colby Lewis (TEX)

Strengths

Control, vs. righties. It was only one season ago when Marcum put up a pristine 5.4 walk percentage and it’s not like he has been bad his other years either. For his career, Marcum walks 7.3 percent of batter faced. He’s also much better against right-handed batters with a 22.0 K% and 6.0 BB% (16.3 K%, 7.9 BB% vs. L).

Weaknesses

Home park, ground ball rate. It doesn’t seem like Marcum likes his new home park in Milwaukee as his home ERA (4.81), FIP (4.31) and WHIP (1.33) were much worse than on the road (2.21 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 0.97 WHIP). His ground ball rate has also been dropping since 2008 and reached a new four-year low in 2011 at a poor 37.2 percent.

ADP Report (146.6)

Given that Marcum has finished in the top 120 players in our PSR rankings the last two years it looks like his ADP is a little low. But, if you think he’s a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher (like I do) you can’t argue with the fact that he’s being drafted as the 41st starting pitcher off the board. I’d take him a little higher than he’s going here, but there are definitely other pitchers going in these rounds with more upside than Marcum.

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