Baseball Professor » George Fitopoulos

Player Profile #83: Jayson Werth | OF | WAS

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 15:00:57 +0000

Do you think Jayson Werth misses Philadelphia? Maybe he doesn’t, but his fantasy owners surely do. After two straight top-25 season in terms of PSR, Werth put up a big stinker in 2011 ranking 173rd. He was still pretty solid with 20 homers and 19 steals, but his 69 runs, 58 RBI and .232 batting average were anemic to say the least. He’s 32, going on 33, so a decline is expected, but it could also explain his highest ground ball rate (43.0%) and lowest ISO (.157) in four years. One would hope he can at least get close to the level of production we saw with the Phillies, but after a season like he had, it’s hard to act on that faith early in drafts.

Best case scenario: Alex Gordon (KC)
Similar players: Nick Swisher (NYY), Chris Young (ARI), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Michael Cuddyer (COL)

Strengths

Walks, power/speed. The good news is that even in a down year Werth managed to draw walks 11.4 percent of the time. He was also one steal away from his third 20/20 season and while we’d like him not to have exactly 20 homers and 20 steals, it’s still not a bad accomplishment.

Weaknesses

Batting average, lineup, age. Werth’s .296 batting average in 2010 was a fluke thanks to a .352 BABIP (.307 xBABIP) so don’t expect him to come close to that mark again. It also concerns me how much his run and RBI totals fell with his switch to the Nationals and while I think they are getting better as a team, the top of the order could still use some work.

ADP Report (99.8)

Fantasy owners are ready to give up it seems as his ADP has plummeted after one down season. I think Werth has a shot at another .260/25/80 season with his usual 15-20 steals. That’s not what he was in Philadelphia, but it’s still a top 100 player.

Player Profile #84: Josh Beckett | SP | BOS

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 14:00:11 +0000

It took buckets of fried chicken and beer to slow down Josh Beckett last year (5.84 ERA in Sept.), but that didn’t stop him from having a nice comeback from his disastrous 2010 campaign. Beckett will never shake his injury woes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a reliable fantasy pitcher. He’s reached the 190-inning mark in two of his last three seasons and if you look at his underlying stats he’s been fairly consistent, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at his ERA. His low BABIP limited his strikeout potential last season despite him putting up his best SwStr% (10.5%) since 2004 so owners who invest should expect an uptick in his 22.8 K%.

Best case scenario: David Price (TB)
Similar players: C.J. Wilson (LAA), James Shields (TB), Matt Cain (SF)
Worst case scenario: Max Scherzer (DET)

Strengths

Strikeouts, lineup, increased effectiveness of cutter. The stacked Red Sox lineup will give Beckett plenty of run support and shots at winning games. The one change between Beckett in 2010 and 2011 is his increased effectiveness of his cutter. In 2010 he threw it 16.2 percent of the time but it was valued at -0.28 runs. Last season he increased the use of his cutter to 20.1 percent of the time with a value of 0.95.

Weaknesses

Injuries. It seems like Beckett lands on the DL at least once a season and whether it’s because he doesn’t “tough it out” or is just fragile is not worth speculating about. Just know that when you draft him he will be missing from your lineup for at least a 15-day period.

ADP Report (92.7)

Given that Beckett could put up a top-10 season at a moment’s notice, his ADP is very fair. I liked his increase in swinging strikes and think he is due for a nice boost in the strikeout category in 2012. We at Baseball Professor had Beckett ranked in the top 35 going into last season when almost every website had him pegged as a borderline top-50 starter. Score one for the Profs and don’t make that mistake again.

Player Profile #85: David Ortiz | DH | BOS

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:00:18 +0000

By the end of 2010, most of Boston was calling for his head, but, in 2011, David Ortiz answered back with one of his best seasons in recent memory. The success was thanks, in large part, to a career-best 13.7 K% as he had been averaging 22.6 K% his previous two seasons. The reduced strikeouts really helped his batting average, which reached the .300 mark for the first time since 2007. The bad news is that Ortiz’s plate discipline stats all of a sudden spiked in his 14th season. He posted career worsts in O-Swing% (27.9%) and F-Strike% (56.9%), while posting a career best SwStrk% (7.0%). Color me pessimisstic, but when a 35-year-old puts up career numbers in a bunch of underlying stats, something tells me he’s set up for an underwhelming follow-up season.

Best case scenario: Another 2011 season
Similar players: Carlos Santana (CLE), Paul Konerko (CHW), Michael Morse (WAS)
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

Power, lineup. The days of a .300+ ISO are over, but he has still averaged a .243 ISO over the last four years. Hitting in the loaded Red Sox lineup also gives him plenty of RBI opportunities.

Weaknesses

Position eligibility, batting average, age. It’s unfortunate that Ortiz doesn’t qualify at first base anymore, but he hasn’t since 2006 so fantasy owners should be used to that by now. I listed batting average here because while he did hit .306 in 2011, I don’t see how he sustains it given all of the fluky underlying stats.

ADP Report (106.9)

We might be a little high on Ortiz given that he doesn’t have any position eligibility, but because power hitters are so hard to find these days (and he’s ranked 70th and 36th in the last two seasons), he gets a boost. It’s always concerning when a player’s contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone jumps 20.6 percentage points in two seasons and he sees a career-high of first strikes, yet his strikeout percentage is a career-best and his xBA last year was .306. If his ADP is true to how the public views him, he’s worth the pick, but anything much earlier than our ranking leaves you taking on more risk than reward.

Player Profile #86: Jason Heyward | OF | ATL

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 11:00:06 +0000

In 2010, Jason Heyward turned heads with a very solid season as a 20-year-old rookie. His PSR was even in the top 100, so many thought we were looking at the next big thing in fantasy baseball. Well, a combination of injuries and regression hurt his 2011 value, and he ended up ranking a very poor 376th. The good news is that Heyward is still only 21 years old and has plenty of time to develop into a big-time, MLB hitter. The bad news? He has battled injuries for two seasons now and we can’t help but draw cross-sport comparisons with Greg Oden. Let’s hope that’s not the case.

Best case scenario: Justin Upton (ARI)
Similar players: Michael Cuddyer (COL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Shoulder injury comes back

Strengths

Plate discipline, power, age. His plate discipline took a step backwards last season, but he still has an above average career O-Swing% (26.1%) and OBP (.362), especially for someone his age. Also, his raw power is drool-inducing when you consider that he has 32 home runs in 916 at-bats (28.63 AB/HR) with a career 54.6 ground ball percentage.

Weaknesses

Ground balls, injuries. If Heyward can figure out how to hit more fly balls (career 29.7%) his home run totals would sky rocket. Unfortunately there have been no signs of that getting better so it’s just blind faith that he will keep improving as a hitter. It also doesn’t help that he spent almost the entire 2011 season nursing a shoulder injury.

ADP Report (108.3)

We at Baseball Professor are definitely buying into the potential that Heyward has, and I think he’s worth a gamble as early as the seventh round. I’ll admit that expectations for 2012 should be tempered, but in keeper leagues he shouldn’t be lasting past the fifth round because the potential is there for him to be a top-10 outfielder for the next 10 years.

Player Profile #96: Drew Storen | RP | WAS

George Fitopoulos — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 14:00:54 +0000

Drew Storen shot up the rankings last year and now sits as a top tier closer. He posted solid strikeout numbers (8.84 K/9, 24.4 K%) and limited his free passes (2.39 BB/9, 6.6 BB%). Let’s add in the fact that he induced a ton of ground balls (47.3 GB%) and you have the perfect fantasy, and real life, closer. Sure, Storen doesn’t have the pedigree of the other names being drafted after him, but he has all the tools to be a top closer in the game. The only thing he lacks is elite strikeout potential.

Best case scenario: Mariano Rivera (NYY)
Similar players: Joakim Soria (KC), Joel Hanrahan (PIT), Heath Bell (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Ryan Madson (CIN)

Strengths

Stable job, control, ground balls. There were some scares near the trade deadline last year that Storen would be shopped to Minnesota for Denard Span, but it seems like wherever Storen is he will be the closer. His combinatio of control and ground ball percentage means he should have no problem keeping his ratios (ERA/WHIP) low.

Weaknesses

Lack of resume. Storen has done it once in his career and, as much as we all want to think he’s the next big closer, we need a couple of years of success before we can feel comfortable cementing him at the top of the ranks.

ADP Report (82.8)

It’s going to sound like a broken record, but no closer is worth a draft pick this high, especially one that doesn’t bring a ton of strikeouts. While Storen is a great choice for your CL1, you should only jump at the opportunity if he falls outside the top 90-100, and that most certainly won’t happen unless you play in a league with loyal Baseball Professor readers.

Player Profile #97: Michael Pineda | SP | NYY

George Fitopoulos — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:34 +0000

I wrote about Michael Pineda earlier when he got traded to the Yankees and said because of his low ground ball percentage (36.3%) he could have some trouble in his new home. Upon further inspection of his ground ball rate (30.9 GB% in first half, 44.2 GB% in second half), he might not be in as much trouble as we thought. Pineda leaned more on his slider in the second half, and that approach helped him keep the ball on the ground at a league-average level. If he carries that into 2012, Pineda should be just fine pitching in New York.

Best case scenario: Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Similar players: Anibal Sanchez (MIA), Gio Gonzalez (WAS), Matt Garza (CHC)
Worst case scenario: Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE)

Strengths

Strikeouts, wins. If Pineda pitched in New York last year with the same numbers he’d probably be a 17-game winner. He also brings a ton of strikeout potential and will hopefully take advantage of AL East players that aren’t very familiar with him on the mound.

Weaknesses

New ballpark/division, second half. It remains to be seen how Yankee Stadium affects Pineda’s stats. Last year he had a much better ERA at home (2.92) than on the road (4.40) and he will also have to face much tougher lineups in the AL East. Pineda also faded greatly in the second half (5.35 ERA after the trade deadline, 2.65 before).

ADP Report (96.1)

Given the amount of potential Pineda possesses, he is very much worth a ninth or 10th round selection. There are some big names going around him (Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Matt Moore, Adam Wainwright), but they all have their question marks, too, so he belongs in that class.

Player Profile #98: Ichiro Suzuki | OF | SEA

George Fitopoulos — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 11:00:56 +0000

Have we seen the end of Ichiro Suzuki as a productive fantasy outfielder? I’m going to say no, but we are definitely getting close. Ichiro hit under .300 for the first time in his career (.272) and posted his worst ISO (.064) in 2011. He’s also gone three straight years with fewer than 90 runs scored. That being said, he still stole 40 bases last year, his .295 BABIP was much lower than his career rate (.351) and his xBA (.293) was not the usual .310-plus but undoubtedly better than the .272 we saw. I think Ichiro can get back to hitting .300 with close to 40 steals for at least one more season, but the Mariners offense is so bad these days that 90 runs is unfortunately the best case for him.

Best case scenario: Michael Bourn (ATL) with fewer runs
Similar players: Cameron Maybin (SD), Emilio Bonifacio (MIA), Coco Crisp (OAK)
Worst case scenario: Juan Pierre (PHI)

Strengths

Steals, batting average. Even at 37, Ichiro posted back-to-back 40-steal seasons with an 83.7 percent success rate. As for his batting average, I don’t see him posting a sub-.300 BABIP again so he should be back around .300.

Weaknesses

Age, power. Ichiro’s endurance over his career has been pretty amazing. He’s played in at least 161 games in seven of his last eight seasons, but you have to think age will catch up with him eventually.

ADP Report (104.9)

Even though Ichiro is on the downside of his career, he’s a pretty good value in the 11th round. Before, when Ichiro was being drafted as an OF1 he had to hit .330 to bring back equal value, but with his current ADP he only needs to hit around .300 to keep his owners happy. I think for the first time in his career we can say Ichiro is being underrated in drafts.

Player Profile #99: Buster Posey | C | SFG

George Fitopoulos — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 15:00:49 +0000

We all know about the hit that ended Buster Posey‘s 2011 season, but what we don’t know if whether it will have any lingering effects in 2012. Reports of his recovery this offseason have been positive, but there’s not telling how his leg will react to the rigors of a 162-game schedule. This is the risk you take on with Posey because as a hitter you know what you’re getting: a disciplined, .300 hitter who can also hit for pretty good power. Some people call him Joe Mauer light, but he has a chance to be better if he shows his power is consistent.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and produces similar to 2010 numbers
Similar players: Joe Mauer (MIN), Miguel Montero (ARI), Billy Butler (KC)
Worst case scenario: Isn’t able to make it through whole 2012 season

Strengths

Batting average, plate discipline. At 25, Posey is already a very selective hitter, which will help him keep his batting average up. His 22 percent O-Swing% before he got injured was well below the league average (30.6%).

Weaknesses

Ballpark, injury. We’ve talked about the injury concerns, but he’s also struggled to hit at home (.246 BA, .138 ISO at home) in his young career. Just for comparison, Posey has a .334 BA and .192 ISO on the road.

ADP Report (59.8)

Currently, Posey is going fourth among catchers behind Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli and Brian McCann. That seems about right to me, but what I can’t get on board with is taking him in the sixth round when so many quality bats are still available at other positions. However, there is a huge drop off at catcher with Alex Avila around the 11th round so you will want to make suer you grab your catcher before they are all gone.

Player Profile #110: Jonathan Papelbon | RP | PHI

George Fitopoulos — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 11:00:09 +0000

If you lived in New England you would think Jonathan Papelbon sucked, but it’s quite the opposite as he’s been one of the best closers over the last six years. Well, Boston fans finally got their wish and Papelbon is now pitching in the NL East. First, he should benefit from the switch just based on not having to face the Yankees offense 18 times per year. Papelbon is a high-strikeout reliever with good control who, in his worst year, is probably as good as an average Brian Wilson. That’s pretty damn good.

Best case scenario: Best closer in fantasy
Similar players: Mariano Rivero (NYY), John Axford (MIL), Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
Worst case scenario: Brian Wilson (SF)

Strengths

Strikeouts, consistency, league. We’ve covered the strikeouts, but keep in mind that his 16.8 SwStr% was tops in the majors among qualifying relievers. He’s been doing this for six seasons now so you shouldn’t expect any surprises.

Weaknesses

Fly balls. Papelbon has only had one season where his ground ball percentage was higher than 39 percent (49.2% in 2008) so he’s always had to deal with a high amount of fly balls. While Citizen’s Bank Ballpark isn’t friendly to those types of pitchers, neither was Fenway Park so there shouldn’t be much change there.

ADP Report (103.9)

Papelbon has finished in the top 100 (in terms of PSR rank) in two of his last three seasons so an ADP this high is definitely warranted. A reliever who can get you 80-90 strikeouts is a huge commodity to have on your roster, but you’ll have to pay for it. Obviously, we at Baseball Professor don’t condone drafting closers early, but if you choose to do so Papelbon is about as sure as it gets.

Player Profile #111: Brian Wilson | RP | SFG

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 17:00:09 +0000

Amidst all the World Series hype and beard trimmings (or lack thereof), Brian Wilson went into the 2011 season as one of the game’s most exciting closers. Of course two injuries, first an oblique and then a strained right elbow, limited Wilson’s playing time and possibly contributed to a subpar stat line. He was never known for good control, but his 12.8 walk percentage was a career worst by 2.6 percentage points. It also didn’t help that his strikeout rate dropped from 29.9 percent to 22.2, but let’s chalk it up to a down year and start all over again in 2012 shall we? RotoDiamond’s Karl de Vries also gave us his take on Wilson when he answered one of our top 100 offseason questions.

Best case scenario: Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
Similar players: Carlos Marmol (CHC), Sergio Santos (TOR), John Axford (MIL)
Worst case scenario: His right elbow injury creeps up again in 2012

Strengths

Strikeouts, ground ball percentage, offense. As long as Wilson goes into 2012 healthy, I expect his strikeouts to rise back up to his career norm, which between 2008-2010 was 10.88 strikeouts per nine innings. You have to like that his offense plays a lot of low-scoring games because that increases his appearances and save opportunities. He’s also kept the ball in the park with the best of them, posting a 0.36 HR/9 over the last three seasons.

Weaknesses

Control. It’s not just his persona that is uncontrollable, he gives up a lot of walks, but if he can bring it back to a manageable 8-9 percent he’d be just fine.

ADP Report (113.7)

Looks like the public can be forgiving because an ADP this high for a closer is nothing to sneeze at. He’s currently going sixth among all closers and while some pitcher after him are safer options, none of them have quite the upside Wilson possesses.