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Player Profile #83: Jayson Werth | OF | WAS

By on February 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Do you think Jayson Werth misses Philadelphia? Maybe he doesn’t, but his fantasy owners surely do. After two straight top-25 season in terms of PSR, Werth put up a big stinker in 2011 ranking 173rd. He was still pretty solid with 20 homers and 19 steals, but his 69 runs, 58 RBI and .232 batting average were anemic to say the least. He’s 32, going on 33, so a decline is expected, but it could also explain his highest ground ball rate (43.0%) and lowest ISO (.157) in four years. One would hope he can at least get close to the level of production we saw with the Phillies, but after a season like he had, it’s hard to act on that faith early in drafts.

Best case scenario: Alex Gordon (KC)
Similar players: Nick Swisher (NYY), Chris Young (ARI), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Michael Cuddyer (COL)

Strengths

Walks, power/speed. The good news is that even in a down year Werth managed to draw walks 11.4 percent of the time. He was also one steal away from his third 20/20 season and while we’d like him not to have exactly 20 homers and 20 steals, it’s still not a bad accomplishment.

Weaknesses

Batting average, lineup, age. Werth’s .296 batting average in 2010 was a fluke thanks to a .352 BABIP (.307 xBABIP) so don’t expect him to come close to that mark again. It also concerns me how much his run and RBI totals fell with his switch to the Nationals and while I think they are getting better as a team, the top of the order could still use some work.

ADP Report (99.8)

Fantasy owners are ready to give up it seems as his ADP has plummeted after one down season. I think Werth has a shot at another .260/25/80 season with his usual 15-20 steals. That’s not what he was in Philadelphia, but it’s still a top 100 player.

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Player Profile #84: Josh Beckett | SP | BOS

By on February 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It took buckets of fried chicken and beer to slow down Josh Beckett last year (5.84 ERA in Sept.), but that didn’t stop him from having a nice comeback from his disastrous 2010 campaign. Beckett will never shake his injury woes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a reliable fantasy pitcher. He’s reached the 190-inning mark in two of his last three seasons and if you look at his underlying stats he’s been fairly consistent, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at his ERA. His low BABIP limited his strikeout potential last season despite him putting up his best SwStr% (10.5%) since 2004 so owners who invest should expect an uptick in his 22.8 K%.

Best case scenario: David Price (TB)
Similar players: C.J. Wilson (LAA), James Shields (TB), Matt Cain (SF)
Worst case scenario: Max Scherzer (DET)

Strengths

Strikeouts, lineup, increased effectiveness of cutter. The stacked Red Sox lineup will give Beckett plenty of run support and shots at winning games. The one change between Beckett in 2010 and 2011 is his increased effectiveness of his cutter. In 2010 he threw it 16.2 percent of the time but it was valued at -0.28 runs. Last season he increased the use of his cutter to 20.1 percent of the time with a value of 0.95.

Weaknesses

Injuries. It seems like Beckett lands on the DL at least once a season and whether it’s because he doesn’t “tough it out” or is just fragile is not worth speculating about. Just know that when you draft him he will be missing from your lineup for at least a 15-day period.

ADP Report (92.7)

Given that Beckett could put up a top-10 season at a moment’s notice, his ADP is very fair. I liked his increase in swinging strikes and think he is due for a nice boost in the strikeout category in 2012. We at Baseball Professor had Beckett ranked in the top 35 going into last season when almost every website had him pegged as a borderline top-50 starter. Score one for the Profs and don’t make that mistake again.

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Player Profile #85: David Ortiz | DH | BOS

By on February 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

By the end of 2010, most of Boston was calling for his head, but, in 2011, David Ortiz answered back with one of his best seasons in recent memory. The success was thanks, in large part, to a career-best 13.7 K% as he had been averaging 22.6 K% his previous two seasons. The reduced strikeouts really helped his batting average, which reached the .300 mark for the first time since 2007. The bad news is that Ortiz’s plate discipline stats all of a sudden spiked in his 14th season. He posted career worsts in O-Swing% (27.9%) and F-Strike% (56.9%), while posting a career best SwStrk% (7.0%). Color me pessimisstic, but when a 35-year-old puts up career numbers in a bunch of underlying stats, something tells me he’s set up for an underwhelming follow-up season.

Best case scenario: Another 2011 season
Similar players: Carlos Santana (CLE), Paul Konerko (CHW), Michael Morse (WAS)
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

Power, lineup. The days of a .300+ ISO are over, but he has still averaged a .243 ISO over the last four years. Hitting in the loaded Red Sox lineup also gives him plenty of RBI opportunities.

Weaknesses

Position eligibility, batting average, age. It’s unfortunate that Ortiz doesn’t qualify at first base anymore, but he hasn’t since 2006 so fantasy owners should be used to that by now. I listed batting average here because while he did hit .306 in 2011, I don’t see how he sustains it given all of the fluky underlying stats.

ADP Report (106.9)

We might be a little high on Ortiz given that he doesn’t have any position eligibility, but because power hitters are so hard to find these days (and he’s ranked 70th and 36th in the last two seasons), he gets a boost. It’s always concerning when a player’s contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone jumps 20.6 percentage points in two seasons and he sees a career-high of first strikes, yet his strikeout percentage is a career-best and his xBA last year was .306. If his ADP is true to how the public views him, he’s worth the pick, but anything much earlier than our ranking leaves you taking on more risk than reward.

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Player Profile #86: Jason Heyward | OF | ATL

By on February 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

In 2010, Jason Heyward turned heads with a very solid season as a 20-year-old rookie. His PSR was even in the top 100, so many thought we were looking at the next big thing in fantasy baseball. Well, a combination of injuries and regression hurt his 2011 value, and he ended up ranking a very poor 376th. The good news is that Heyward is still only 21 years old and has plenty of time to develop into a big-time, MLB hitter. The bad news? He has battled injuries for two seasons now and we can’t help but draw cross-sport comparisons with Greg Oden. Let’s hope that’s not the case.

Best case scenario: Justin Upton (ARI)
Similar players: Michael Cuddyer (COL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Shoulder injury comes back

Strengths

Plate discipline, power, age. His plate discipline took a step backwards last season, but he still has an above average career O-Swing% (26.1%) and OBP (.362), especially for someone his age. Also, his raw power is drool-inducing when you consider that he has 32 home runs in 916 at-bats (28.63 AB/HR) with a career 54.6 ground ball percentage.

Weaknesses

Ground balls, injuries. If Heyward can figure out how to hit more fly balls (career 29.7%) his home run totals would sky rocket. Unfortunately there have been no signs of that getting better so it’s just blind faith that he will keep improving as a hitter. It also doesn’t help that he spent almost the entire 2011 season nursing a shoulder injury.

ADP Report (108.3)

We at Baseball Professor are definitely buying into the potential that Heyward has, and I think he’s worth a gamble as early as the seventh round. I’ll admit that expectations for 2012 should be tempered, but in keeper leagues he shouldn’t be lasting past the fifth round because the potential is there for him to be a top-10 outfielder for the next 10 years.

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Player Profile #96: Drew Storen | RP | WAS

By on February 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Drew Storen shot up the rankings last year and now sits as a top tier closer. He posted solid strikeout numbers (8.84 K/9, 24.4 K%) and limited his free passes (2.39 BB/9, 6.6 BB%). Let’s add in the fact that he induced a ton of ground balls (47.3 GB%) and you have the perfect fantasy, and real life, closer. Sure, Storen doesn’t have the pedigree  of the other names being drafted after him, but he has all the tools to be a top closer in the game. The only thing he lacks is elite strikeout potential.

Best case scenario: Mariano Rivera (NYY)
Similar players: Joakim Soria (KC), Joel Hanrahan (PIT), Heath Bell (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Ryan Madson (CIN)

Strengths

Stable job, control, ground balls. There were some scares near the trade deadline last year that Storen would be shopped to Minnesota for Denard Span, but it seems like wherever Storen is he will be the closer. His combinatio of control and ground ball percentage means he should have no problem keeping his ratios (ERA/WHIP) low.

Weaknesses

Lack of resume. Storen has done it once in his career and, as much as we all want to think he’s the next big closer, we need a couple of years of success before we can feel comfortable cementing him at the top of the ranks.

ADP Report (82.8)

It’s going to sound like a broken record, but no closer is worth a draft pick this high, especially one that doesn’t bring a ton of strikeouts. While Storen is a great choice for your CL1, you should only jump at the opportunity if he falls outside the top 90-100, and that most certainly won’t happen unless you play in a league with loyal Baseball Professor readers.

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Player Profile #97: Michael Pineda | SP | NYY

By on February 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

I wrote about Michael Pineda earlier when he got traded to the Yankees and said because of his low ground ball percentage (36.3%) he could have some trouble in his new home. Upon further inspection of his ground ball rate (30.9 GB% in first half, 44.2 GB% in second half), he might not be in as much trouble as we thought. Pineda leaned more on his slider in the second half, and that approach helped him keep the ball on the ground at a league-average level. If he carries that into 2012, Pineda should be just fine pitching in New York.

Best case scenario: Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Similar players: Anibal Sanchez (MIA), Gio Gonzalez (WAS), Matt Garza (CHC)
Worst case scenario: Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE)

Strengths

Strikeouts, wins. If Pineda pitched in New York last year with the same numbers he’d probably be a 17-game winner. He also brings a ton of strikeout potential and will hopefully take advantage of AL East players that aren’t very familiar with him on the mound.

Weaknesses

New ballpark/division, second half. It remains to be seen how Yankee Stadium affects Pineda’s stats. Last year he had a much better ERA at home (2.92) than on the road (4.40) and he will also have to face much tougher lineups in the AL East. Pineda also faded greatly in the second half (5.35 ERA after the trade deadline, 2.65 before).

ADP Report (96.1)

Given the amount of potential Pineda possesses, he is very much worth a ninth or 10th round selection. There are some big names going around him (Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Matt Moore, Adam Wainwright), but they all have their question marks, too, so he belongs in that class.

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Player Profile #98: Ichiro Suzuki | OF | SEA

By on February 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Have we seen the end of Ichiro Suzuki as a productive fantasy outfielder? I’m going to say no, but we are definitely getting close. Ichiro hit under .300 for the first time in his career (.272) and posted his worst ISO (.064) in 2011. He’s also gone three straight years with fewer than 90 runs scored. That being said, he still stole 40 bases last year, his .295 BABIP was much lower than his career rate (.351) and his xBA (.293) was not the usual .310-plus but undoubtedly better than the .272 we saw. I think Ichiro can get back to hitting .300 with close to 40 steals for at least one more season, but the Mariners offense is so bad these days that 90 runs is unfortunately the best case for him.

Best case scenario: Michael Bourn (ATL) with fewer runs
Similar players: Cameron Maybin (SD), Emilio Bonifacio (MIA), Coco Crisp (OAK)
Worst case scenario: Juan Pierre (PHI)

Strengths

Steals, batting average. Even at 37, Ichiro posted back-to-back 40-steal seasons with an 83.7 percent success rate. As for his batting average, I don’t see him posting a sub-.300 BABIP again so he should be back around .300.

Weaknesses

Age, power. Ichiro’s endurance over his career has been pretty amazing. He’s played in at least 161 games in seven of his last eight seasons, but you have to think age will catch up with him eventually.

ADP Report (104.9)

Even though Ichiro is on the downside of his career, he’s a pretty good value in the 11th round. Before, when Ichiro was being drafted as an OF1 he had to hit .330 to bring back equal value, but with his current ADP he only needs to hit around .300 to keep his owners happy. I think for the first time in his career we can say Ichiro is being underrated in drafts.

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