Intangibles mean nothing in fantasy baseball. Defense means little, and in most leagues it only indirectly matters how much a player walks, strikes out or grounds into double plays. In fantasy baseball, only the superficial five stats matter for batters and only four stats for pitchers.
Because of this incomplete use of a player’s skills, we often see a wide gap between a player’s real baseball value and their fantasy value, and that means market inefficiencies exist, a term popularized by Moneyball. That’s why I love doing blind resumes where we compare two players by fantasy stats alone to show just how much value can be found late and how names often cloud our evaluations and rankings.
These blind resumes were put together using our official 2012 fantasy projections which you can find in our free draft guide. All you need to do to get it is like us on Facebook! You may agree or disagree with our projection, but that makes this more fun. Can you guess who each player is?
Player A: 80 R | 23 HR | 91 RBI | 8 SB | .293 BA
Player B: 76 R | 19 HR | 100 RBI | 1 SB | .307 BA
Hint: Neither of these guys would be considered first base Royal-ty, but you won’t mind plugging either in your lineup and stocking up at other positions.
Did you guess that Player A is Eric Hosmer and Player B is Billy Butler? Hosmer’s line is a little better overall, ranking ninth among our first base projections while Butler’s line slides in at number 10, but Hosmer’s ADP is 52.7 to Butler’s 116.5. With an improved lineup and already-great contact skills, Butler has a solid chance at his first 100-RBI season, and he’s a much safer bet than Hosmer who, admittedly, has a much higher ceiling. I’d rather have Hosmer (it’s not even a question really) but Butler is very undervalued.
Player A: 85 R | 15 HR | 68 RBI | 15 SB | .278 BA
Player B: 77 R | 16 HR | 71 RBI | 11 SB | .282 BA
Hint: Do you want 2 B risky with the rook or gamble on Player B’s sudden power stroke sticking?
There’s more risk with Player A (Jason Kipnis) than there is with Player B (Howie Kendrick), but we think they’ll have pretty similar lines by the end of the season. Barring a major flop to start 2012, Kipnis will get a full season of at-bats at second base for the Indians, and last year he showed he has the potential to be a good power/speed contributor that can be had on the cheap. Plus, it’s not like Kendrick is without his questions as well (injuries). Right now Kipnis has an ADP of 167.6 versus Kendrick’s 98.9 ADP, which shows how people are valuing them. I’d rather have Kendrick, but would I rather have him almost 70 picks before Kipnis? No.
Player A: 93 R | 19 HR | 91 RBI | 22 SB | .271 BA
Player B: 86 R | 32 HR | 96 RBI | 7 SB | .268 BA
Hint: Both players qualify in the outfield, but I’d rake a “second” look at Player A before siding with Player B’s “Red”-hot power bat.
Before we identify the players, which would you rather have? Player B is projected to hit 13 more homers, but he’s also projected to steal 15 fewer bases. Both players have almost the same number of runs and RBI combined, and neither is a real threat to post a good batting average. In a vacuum I’d probably go with Player A (I value balance), but it’s very close. Well, Player A is Ben Zobrist and Player B is Jay Bruce. It’s not that I don’t like Bruce a lot — I’ll gladly plug a 30-homer bat into my outfield — but I do think he’s a bit overrated, especially when you consider that Bruce’s ADP this season is 42.3 whereas Zobrist’s is 76.3. Right now Bruce is valued around pitchers like Zack Greinke and Dan Haren while Zobrist is valued around Ian Kennedy and Mat Latos. I like all four of those starters, but I’d much rather have Zobrist and Greinke than Bruce and Kennedy. And to top it all off, Zobrist qualifies at second base as well (in case the Hint was too vague for you).
