About Bryan Curley

Author Archive | Bryan Curley

Player Profile #92: Billy Butler | 1B/DH | KC

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Billy Butler might more aptly be named Billy Boring, but there’s something to be said for a player who bats .300 with moderate totals in everything else. Considering his ranks the past three seasons, never straying from the 85-92 range, it’s appropriate that we find Butler ranked a number 92 in our rankings. He’s an xBA outlier, likely due to his complete lack of speed since our equation does have a foot-speed component, but Butler is a career .297 hitter in the heart of what should be a good Kansas City lineup.

Best case scenario: Pablo Sandoval (SF)
Similar players: Eric Hosmer (KC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Jhonny Peralta (DET)
Worst case scenario: Gaby Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

Home. Butler has a better career batting average at home, .314 to .279, which isn’t all that surprising. What is surprising is that in two of the last three seasons his home batting average has been almost 50 points higher or more.

Weaknesses

Position? Butler played and started just 11 games at first base last season. If your league’s eligibility requirements are stricter than this, Butler’s value takes a hit because he can only be started at utility.

ADP Report (122.7)

It’s not exciting to draft Butler, but given how deceptively shallow first base is (again, if he qualifies), this ADP is a steal. If Butler doesn’t qualify at first base in your league, he’s still someone I would take at 123rd overall, and probably a bit higher. You can see from both the chart above and the intro that Butler’s yearly numbers are very stable, so another repeat season seems like a logical conclusion.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #93: Brett Lawrie | 3B | TOR

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Brett Lawrie gained some fans during his 15 minutes (or 43 games) of fame last season. Over a full season (let’s say 150 games) his 2011 totals would have looked something like this: 91 runs, .293 BA, 31 homers, 87 RBI, 24 SB. Because I know you’re wondering, that line would have ranked 20th overall last season. Yes, those numbers are correct. Of course, it’s way too soon to be drafting Lawrie in the second round of your fantasy draft, but stardom is in this kid’s future.

Best case scenario: Ian Kinsler (TEX)
Similar players: Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Chris Young (ARI) with a better BA
Worst case scenario: Ryan Roberts (ARI)

Strengths

Minor league resume, HR/SB combo. Lawrie has been promoted rather quickly throughout the minors, but he’s performed at every stop. He hit 18 homers in just 69 games at triple-A last season and stole 30 bases at double-A in 2010. He’s done it before, and his HR/SB combo could be lethal.

Weaknesses

Experience, possibly Ks. With just 43 games of major league experience, it’s certainly possible that Lawrie might need a bit of seasoning before becoming a fantasy star. He may be ready right now, but you’re going to have to invest a high draft pick to get him. While his 18.1 percent strikeout rate in the majors last year wasn’t that bad, any higher might have some serious negative effects on his batting average.

ADP Report (55.9)

We had a nice little debate in the comments section of one of our Brett Lawrie fantasy posts a few weeks back where I projected Lawrie for 80 runs, a .273 BA, 23 homers, 80 RBI and 25 stolen bases. Those numbers would have been good for 64th overall last year, but there’s definitely a good amount of risk projecting a first-year player for those kind of homer and steal totals. I’m higher on Lawrie than the rest of the Baseball Professor staff, so I’d say this ADP is a good time to start thinking about drafting Lawrie, but it might be a bit too rich for my blood. But only a bit.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #94: Stephen Strasburg | SP | WAS

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 2 }

If we learned anything from Jordan Zimmermann‘s 2011 season, it was how the Nationals elect to ease their pitchers back from Tommy John surgery. Zimmermann pitched 161 1/3 innings last season, and we can likely expect the same total from Stephen Strasburg this season. When he does pitch, though, you can be assured of two things: strikeouts and more strikeouts. It will probably take him some time, the majority of the season in fact, to work back to full strength, but I’d be surprised if we don’t see something in the neighborhood of a strikeout an innings from the game’s most exciting pitching prospect. How will his ERA and WHIP fare? I’m confident they’ll be an elite levels, too, but 160 innings of elite numbers can only rank you so high.

Best case scenario: Clayton Kershaw (LAD) on a per-start basis
Similar players: Michael Pineda (NYY), Tim Lincecum (SF), Madison Bumgarner (SF) on a per-start basis
Worst case scenario: Injuries crop up, innings fall below 160

Strengths

Elite talent. Nothing more need be said here. Strasburg over 200 innings could be the best pitcher of the last few seasons.

Weaknesses

Innings, injury. Strasburg won’t exceed 160 innings. For 2012, that kills his value. Despite the recent success of players coming back from Tommy John surgery, which I read somewhere had an 85-90 percent success rate (sorry, I didn’t save the link), Strasburg still has a violent delivery that could result in future shoulder damage.

ADP Report (62.4)

Let’s play a quick game of “What If.” What if Strasburg pitches 160 innings, wins 10 games, strikes out 160 batters and finishes with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.10? How would he rank? Compared to the rest of the league in 2011, that would have made him the 127th-best player overall. Let’s improve those totals to 12 wins, 175 strikeouts, a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Those numbers would have made him the 78th-best player overall. That means to justify this ADP, Strasburg has to best those numbers, which I have estimated on the high side of what he’s capable of. No thanks. Keeper leagues? Go for it.

Read full story · Comments { 2 }

#3: Is Danny Espinosa’s HR/SB combo worth the hit in batting average?

By on February 1, 2012 | Comments { 3 }

Chris Young, B.J. Upton, Danny Espinosa. They all have one thing in common: terrible batting averages yet enticing home run/stolen base totals. (Maybe that’s two things in common?)

In fantasy leagues it’s tough to gauge the value of these players. Managers tend to fear their deficiencies in drafts, causing the players’ ADPs to fall below where they’ll likely end the season ranked. Take Upton and Young for example. Upton finished last year as the 41st-ranked player in fantasy, but this year his ADP is 68. Young ranked 99th last year but right now his ADP is 125.

Heck, even Ryan Roberts finished last season with 19 homers, 18 steals and an overall rank of 106, but this season his ADP is 197. Those homers and steals are completely repeatable and he has a starting job, but people are scared of taking on that .249 average. And what about Ben Zobrist? He batted just .269 last year but hit 20 homers, stole 19 bases and ranked 40th overall. Why is his ADP 83?

Espinosa seems like the outlier. Last season he hit 21 homers, stole 17 bases and batted .236 en route to a 147 ranking. This year his ADP is 150. So, while this question technically asks about Espinosa, he just serves as the poster boy for an entire class of undervalued players (though oddly enough he’s the only one being properly valued, go figure). The fact of the matter is regardless of what a player’s stats are, their end-of-season rank is a pure evaluation of how good they were that season to fantasy owners.

If I told you there was a player available at 83rd overall in your draft this spring who would finish the year ranked 40th, wouldn’t you take him? He could bat .269 with 20 homers and 19 steals or he could bat .269 with 39 homers and no steals. I’m still taking that player.

Note: In actuality, and assuming runs/RBI/average remains equals, 43 homers and zero steals is the fantasy equivalent of 20 homers and 19 steals since steals are worth more than homers per unit value. And in case you were curious zero homers and 35 steals is the equivalent at the other end of the spectrum. Of course, more homers tends to yield more runs/RBI since they directly impact one another, but I digress.

While the industry is busy undervaluing these players, you can take them and turn a profit. You can always find the other class undervalued guys who contribute very little in terms of homers and steals but provide a great average and are systematically disregarded as well. This season that class of player includes the following:

  • Michael Young (2011 rank: 44/2012 ADP: 71)
  • Ichiro Suzuki (78/105)
  • Billy Butler (92/123)
  • Derek Jeter (95/126)
  • Yadier Molina (140/181)
  • Todd Helton (152/197)
  • Jemile Weeks (163 in just 97 games/154)
  • Jon Jay (223/293)

There are two things I can guarantee almost every single fantasy league champion will have on their roster at the end of this season: superstars (read: early round picks that stayed healthy) and plenty of guys who outperformed their ADPs.

Read full story · Comments { 3 }

Player Profile #95: Mariano Rivera | RP | NYY

By on February 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It seems our closers get ranked in bunches, huh? We ranked four closers from 190-196, and two times since then we’ve ranked two closers back to back. Well, make that three times. Drew Storen, our 96th-ranked player, and Mariano Rivera, number 95, are a fascinating pairing. While Storen brings youthfulness and potential, Rivera brings experience and dependability. Because of age, Rivera probably won’t be among the league leaders in innings pitched in 2012, but he’s saved 44 games in two of the last three seasons and has saved fewer than 34 just once in the last nine years (30 back in 2007). However, despite the age, no one brings a consistently low WHIP quite like the Yankee veteran. His cutter is devastating, and he controls it impeccably. While it’s almost always smart to wait on closers until late in your draft, how many times have you seen your team’s ERA balloon because one of your closers gave up four runs in a third of an inning? You don’t have those concerns with Rivera.

Best case scenario: Best closer in fantasy
Similar players: J.J. Putz (ARI), Drew Storen (WAS), Huston Street (SD)
Worst case scenario: Elite ERA/WHIP but 30-ish saves and declining K numbers

Strengths

ERA, WHIP. Rivera has a career 2.21 ERA that has been under 2.00 in eight of the last seasons. That means one-point-something almost every single year. His career WHIP is just 1.00, and that’s been under 1.00 in six of the last seven years. Apparently wine isn’t the only thing that gets better with age.

Weaknesses

Innings pitched. The 45 strikeouts in 2010 were an anomaly, so even though Rivera will end the year around 60 innings, he’s still capable of striking out an average amount of batters for a closer. You’d definitely like more, but that’s the price you pay for drafting Rivera.

ADP Report (99.0)

I can get on board with drafting Rivera 99th overall. As a not-so-proud Chris Perez owner last season, I can certainly tell you his four appearances of two earned runs or more after the All-Star Break were frustrating to say the least, and his 1.21 WHIP was higher than I would have liked…and Perez wasn’t even a bad closer!

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #100: Mike Morse | 1B/OF | WAS

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last March I wrote this about Mike Morse: “Assuming 500 at-bats, which I think is reasonable, we could be looking at a 20-homer, 80-RBI season with a good batting average coming from a widely undrafted player.” Morse ended up getting 522 at-bats, put up a “good” .303 average (and a .288 xBA, which is more what I expected) but crushed my power projections. That season was good enough to rank him 51st overall. We’ll see more of the same in 2012. Maybe he won’t bat over .300 again, but 25 homers and 80 RBI are totals you can take to the bank.

Best case scenario: Paul Konerko (CHW)
Similar players: Lance Berkman (STL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Torii Hunter (LAA)

Strengths

HR, RBI, BA, balance, HR on the road. The homers, RBI and average should all be pretty close to last season, but what I really like about Morse is the balance he showed last season. No matter what split you look at (vs. LHP/RHP, first half/second half, home/road), Morse put almost exactly equal numbers with one exception: power on the road. His home park in Washington is exactly league average for homers to right-handed batters, but Morse hit 20 of his 31 homers away from home. For what it’s worth, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a good home run park for righties, but Turner Field in Atlanta and Sun Life Stadium in Florida are a little below average, and Citi Field (was) definitely below average. Things will get interesting this season, though as Citi Field brings in its fences and the Marlins move to a new park.

Weaknesses

SB. I don’t see another real weakness in Morse’s game. We expected him to break out, he did and now he’ll probably hit like 2011 all over again. Will he repeat 30 homers and 90 RBI? We’ll see, but like I said in the intro, 25 and 80 are definitely safe bets.

ADP Report (79.9)

Had Morse batted .288 last year instead of .303 (but kept everything else the same), he would have ranked 81st overall instead of 51st. If we adjust his run and RBI totals to account for the hypothetical .288 average, Morse would have scored 70 runs and driven in 86. That 70/.288/31/86/2 line would have ranked him 88th overall. I tell you that just to give you some perspective. In my opinion this ADP is a little high for Morse as the likely drop in batting average will adversely affect most of his other numbers, but if you want to draft him in the 85-100 range that seems OK to me.

 

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #101: Jordan Zimmermann | SP | WAS

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

If Jordan Zimmermann can put together a full, 200-inning season, he’ll be a fantasy force to be reckoned with. His walk rate went from very good to pretty much elite last season, and there’s definitely room for growth with his strikeout rate. In fact, if Zimmermann made the standard 33 starts last season instead of just 26, his PSR would have risen from 0.79 to 2.47, which would have ranked him 141st overall. The Nationals appear to be a team on the rise, so wins shouldn’t be as scarce in Washington as they have been in recent seasons. With a little more durability and another strikeout per nine innings, Zimmermann will thrust himself inside the top 100.

Best case scenario: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
Similar players: Shaun Marcum (MIL), Doug Fister (DET), Chris Carpenter (STL)
Worst case scenario: Tim Stauffer (SD)

Strengths

ERA, WHIP, control. A 3.18 ERA and 3.16 FIP tell us Zimmermann is a damn good pitcher, and if he’s able to come close to his 1.73 BB/9 last season then he’ll be among the league’s best in terms of WHIP as well. If he can become above average in either wins or strikeouts, he’ll be a legit fantasy number two starter.

Weaknesses

Durability. I won’t label Zimmermann’s win or strikeout potential as weaknesses because both of those stand to improve this season, we just don’t know how much yet. His durability is a concern, though. He’s already had Tommy John surgery in his career (2009) and last season they looked to cap his innings in is first full season back. How many innings will he throw this year?

ADP Report (120.6)

Zimmermann is currently getting drafted after starters like Josh Johnson (106), Brandon Beachy (118), Johnny Cueto (121), Matt Garza (126), Gio Gonzalez (132) and Matt Moore (168), who we all have ranked behind Zimmermann (that’s our rank in parentheses by the way). That makes J-Zimm a good value here.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • About BaseballProf
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Contact
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009