Finally. It only took until February, but Edwin Jackson has a home. Almost 24 hours ago the Washington Nationals reported via Twitter that they agreed to employ Jackson for his pitching services this coming season.
Now, as we do with every notable major league signing, let’s look at the fantasy impact of Jackson’s move to Washington. To do that, let’s first take a look at Jackson’s career stats in the context of where he’s played, and where he’s played is an extensive list that deserves a post of its own.
In nine major league seasons, Jackson has already donned six different major league uniforms (or seven if you count the Devil Rays and Rays as separate entities), and the Nationals will add one more to that list. Jackson’s career has been looked upon my many, and probably most, as disappointing. He has a 60-60 career record with a 4.46 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. It doesn’t get much more average than that (though the WHIP is pretty terrible).
But, if you take out Jackson’s first four season (2003-2006) when he never topped 36 1/3 innings in a single season as well as his first full season (2007) when he finished 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 161 innings, his resume is a much more impressive 48-41 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP (OK, maybe impressive is the wrong word). The WHIP is still annoyingly high, but a 4.06 ERA is definitely serviceable. Considering that Jackson has averaged over 200 innings per year during that four-year span, you can see why he does have some semblance of fantasy value.
For his career, Jackson has been a slight ground ball pitcher with a 1.19 GB:FB ratio, but over the last two seasons he’s been even less kind to the infield worms. In 2010 his GB:FB ratio was 1.55, and last season it was 1.40. Perhaps this change was made out of necessity — he’s called either Chase Field (Arizona) or U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago) home for 331 of the 409 innings he’s pitched over the last two seasons. Both of those parks are homer-friendly. His new home, Nationals Ballpark in Washington, is about as league average as they come.
Because Jackson has moved around from home park to home park, his ERAs can be rather misleading. For this reason, and because his new home is a league-average park, let’s look at Jackson’s xFIPs (since xFIP normalizes to a league average HR/FB rate). We see that in the last two years, and despite playing for three teams during that span, Jackson has actually had extremely consistent, and rather impressive, xFIPs of 3.71 and 3.73 (this is a better use of “impressive” than before).
So, let’s say that Jackson finishes 2012 with a 3.70 ERA. What about his WHIP? Well, WHIP breaks down into two components, walks and hits. Even though the chart above makes it look like Jackson’s walk rates have bounced up and down, they’ve actually been more consistent than that over the last two seasons. Take a look.
Jackson’s first two-thirds of 2010 were pretty terrible (4.02 BB/9) but his walk rate plummeted almost two full walks per nine innings upon his arrival in Chicago that season and stayed under 3.00 for all of 2011.
As for his OBAs? Those don’t correlate as nicely. Jackson’s OBAs have bounced all around during the last four seasons, going as low as .247 during his stint with the White Sox in 2010 and rising as high as .290 in his time with the Cardinals in 2011. His career OBA is .271, and that’s as good of a guess as we’ll have for this number. Sadly for Jackson, .271 is very high, and a .271 OBA with a 2.75 BB/9 will result in a WHIP of 1.41.
To finish off our Jackson projection, let’s give him 12 wins (his average win total per season over the last four years) and 150 strikeouts (what he averages per 200 innings over the last four years). To put everything together, our final Jackson fantasy line is 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, a 3.70 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. If we plug those numbers into our handy-dandy PSR equation, we get a rating of 0.66, which would have ranked 215th last season and 63rd among starting pitchers. For people in 12-team leagues that go six or seven starters deep, Jackson projects as your average team’s sixth starter, making him one of the last players you’ll likely keep on your roster for the majority of the season.
Congratulation, Edwin. You’re league average again, and it only took me 731 words to figure it out.








