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Daily DraftKings Picks: Wednesday, Sep 3

Yesterday was a disappointing day. Wade Miley did exactly as I expected, but my team was tanked from the start by Shane Greene’s implosion against the Red Sox. Greene had been extremely consistent, but Boston’s big name bats chose that to to erupt.

My three hidden players were Joe Panik (14.00 points), Luis Valbuena (14.00 points), and Greene (-6.00 points).

September 2

Tuesday’s Official Lineup (click to enlarge)

Wednesday gives us a split schedule with what appear to be only minor weather concerns in the late games, particularly CHW@MIN (which I’ll be watching very closely). For now I’ll call all games pickable, so let’s get to today’s team!

Wednesday’s Official DraftKings Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

  • C: Joe Mauer (MIN) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $4,200
  • C: Josmil Pinto (MIN) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $2,700
  • 1B: Jose Abreu (CHW) @ T. May (MIN) — $5,500
  • 2B: Brian Dozier (MIN) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $5,000
  • 2B: Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. J. Weaver (LAA) — $4,900
  • 3B: Hidden
  • SS: Danny Santana (MIN) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $4,500
  • OF: Oswaldo Arcia (MIN) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $4,000
  • OF: Adam Eaton (CHW) @ T. May (MIN) — $4,700
  • OF: Hidden
  • SP: Andrew Cashner (SD) vs. J. Collmenter (SD) — $6,600
  • SP: Hidden

So, that’s a pretty crazy price for Cashner, huh? His price tag has been falling, but it’s never been this low, and now he’ll take on the Diamondbacks in San Diego. There’s not a ton to think about here. This feels like some sort of calculation glitch in their system, that’s how good of a value this is. On the flip side, everyone is going to make this selection.

I’m loading up on the CHW@MIN game today, which is slightly risky because the weather is somewhat iffy and the win should be blowing in from right field. Still, John Danks versus Trevor May is a stacker’s dream, and I have a total of six batters from this game. On the Twins side it’s Mauer, Dozier, Santana, and Arcia. I almost added Kennys Vargas as well, but as you can see I selected Abreu instead (a little more on this below). Mauer and Arcia are lefties, facing a left-handed pitcher and Danks has allowed just 3 of his 24 HR to left-handers this season, but Arcia actually has great numbers (same concerns as always about BvP data, though!) with 2 HR in 15 AB with just 2 K versus the White Sox starter. Santana and Dozier — they crush lefties.

Update: The weather in Minnesota looks good to me! Dozier is out tonight so I’ll go with Altuve against Jered Weaver. I don’t particularly love the matchup against Weaver, but Altuve has eight hits in his last two games and is averaging over 11 points per game across his last 10. This feels like a slight overpay, but I like Altuve’s security. I also swapped out Mauer upon seeing Pinto crack the starting lineup. Mauer was never a prime target in my Twins stack, but I selected him due to the lack of other options at catcher, his history against Danks, and his presence in the middle of the stack. Pinto costs $1,500 less and offers similar upside. This allowed me to drastically upgrade my hidden 3B slot.

For the White Sox I’ll roll with Abreu for the second straight day, though yesterday I had to switch my lineup on the fly as the White Sox gave him the day off due to “general soreness.” He should be back in there today, and May has looked brutal. Despite the o-fer yesterday, I’ll go with Eaton leading off as well.

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

  • C: Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. J. Verlander (DET) — $4,300
  • C: Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) @ T. Koehler (MIA) — $3,200
  • 1B: Eric Hosmer (KC) vs. N. Tepesch (TEX) — $3,100
  • 1B: Ryan Rua (TEX) @ J. Vargas (KC) — $2,100
  • 2B: Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. J. Verlander (DET) — $3,300
  • 2B: Donovan Solano (MIA) vs. J. deGrom (NYM) — $2,500
  • 3B: Evan Longoria (TB) vs. M. Stroman (TOR) — $4,400
  • 3B: Nick Castellanos (DET) @ D. Salazar (CLE) — $3,300
  • SS: J.J. Hardy (BAL) vs. D. Axelrod (CIN) — $3,600
  • SS: Xander Bogaerts (BOS) @ H. Kuroda (NYY) — $2,500
  • OF: David Lough (BAL) vs. D. Axelrod (CIN) — $1,900
  • OF: Nelson Cruz (BAL) vs. D. Axelrod (CIN) — $4,900
  • OF: Jay Bruce (CIN) @ M. Gonzalez (BAL) — $3,700
  • OF: Matt den Dekker (NYM) @ T. Koehler (MIA) — $2,700
  • OF: Alex Rios (TEX) @ J. Vargas (KC) — $3,500
  • SP: Tom Koehler (MIA) vs. J. deGrom (NYM) — $6,600
  • SP: Matt Garza (MIL) @ K. Hendricks (CHC) — $8,300
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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • gerg

    Wow my lineup is real close to your optimal lineup today. I stayed away from the Minnesota lefties and I did go with Grandal, Plouffe, and Cespedes and Stanton in my outfield. Any thoughts on my picks? I need a rebound from yesterday.

    • gerg

      My other starter is Koehler, I’m rollin with the higher priced bats today.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      I like the Koehler pick. I almost went Cespedes, too! Solid lineup as I strongly considered everyone you mentioned.