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Daily DraftKings Picks: Tuesday, Sep 2

Yesterday’s team scored 109.35 points and finished 920th-of-2,300 in the Daily Moonshot. It was about as average as they come, but it likely would have been better had I been able to adjust my lineup later in the day (see: Matt Duffy). My pitchers did exactly what I expected, Buster Posey continued his hot ways, Hunter Pence had a big game, and Anthony Rendon pitched in 20.00 points himself. The rest did pretty much nothing.

September 1

Tuesday’s Official Lineup (click to enlarge)

Today we have questionable weather in a few games: CIN@BAL, DET@CLE, PHI@ATL, BOS@NYY, and LAA@HOU. Of those, only CIN@BAL scares me in terms of selecting pitchers, but the rest are good to go!

Tuesday’s Official DraftKings Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

Update: Abreu is off today — update forthcoming.

Miley has a 4.30 ERA and has allowed 23 HR on the season, but he’s regularly turned in very good fantasy outings due to his durability and penchant for the occasional gem. Over his last 10 starts he’s averaged 16.3 points with four starts over 22 points, and seven starts over 14 points. He rarely completely implodes, and I doubt he’d do that against San Diego. For the money, this should be 14+ points pretty easily with a good shot at the mid-20s. Playing in Petco Park will help alleviate his homer woes.

Perez will face Derek Holland in the Texas lefty’s first start of the season. The catcher has four multi-hit games in his last five with three doubles and a homer in his last two. He doesn’t have very strong splits against left-handers, generally hitting them as well as he does right-handers, but catcher has been especially devoid of production for the last few weeks (Posey aside).

Minnesota will throw Tommy Milone against the White Sox today, and that’s where I’ll place a fairly large bet. Abreu has an amazing .320/33/99 line on the season and is absolutely worth the money against a fly ball pitchers, and, as Zach Pincince points out in this week’s edition of #ProfStats, Eaton is currently tearing the cover off the ball. Ramirez is a solid shortstop likely sandwiched between both Eaton and Abreu in the lineup, and he’s done well of late himself — six 10+ point games in his last 10.

Update: No Abreu hurts the value of both Ramirez and Eaton as well, so I got rid of them all. I swapped out Abreu and Eaton for Freeman and J. Upton against Kyle Kendrick. Combined, Freeman and Upton are 16-for-46 (.348) with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 doubles, 7 BB, and 10 K. I also swapped our Ramirez for another Ramirez — Cleveland’s Jose. He’s cheap and been great for the Indians, and today he’ll be batting second against the rookie Kyle Lobstein.

How can you not have Soler in your lineup right now? I went back and forth on Soler against Yovani Gallardo or Jason Heyward against Kyle Kendrick, but ultimately I sided with Soler for $100 extra. That’s the kind of confidence I have in him. He’s produced everywhere he’s played this year. He also pairs well with another Cub, Coghlan. The cheap leadoff man goes for just $3.4K but he’s averaged 7.7 points over his last 10 games with five hits in his last two, and he’s 6-for-9 (.667) with two doubles against Gallardo. As I’ve said many times, I don’t put much stock in BvP data due to concerns of sample size and context (particularly recency), but when picking a cheap player who’s currently hitting well, it’s reassuring to know he’s enjoyed success against the upcoming pitcher.

Update: I had money left over after my White Sox swaps, so I upgraded Coghlan to Bautista. He’s homered in four straight games and is as stable as they come. He’s also been great against Jeremy Hellickson (though see the section above on the value of BvP data) — 8-for-26 (.308) with a double, a triple, 3 HR, 4 BB, and 6 K.

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

  • C: Yadier Molina (STL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $3,200
  • C: Buster Posey (SF) @ J. Lyles (COL) — $5,300
  • 1B: Freddie Freeman (ATL) vs. K. Kendrick (PHI) — $4,600
  • 1B: Albert Pujols (LAA) @ B. Peacock (HOU) — $4,400
  • 2B: Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. C. Wilson (LAA) — $4,900
  • 2B: Joe Panik (SF) @ J. Lyles (COL) — $3,700
  • 3B: Josh Harrison (PIT) @ A. Wainwright (STL) — $4,000
  • 3B: Pablo Sandoval (SF) @ J. Lyles (COL) — $4,500
  • SS: Danny Santana (MIN) vs. H. Noesi (CHW) — $4,500
  • SS: Mookie Betts (BOS) @ S. Greene (NYY) — $3,400
  • OF: Hunter Pence (SF) @ J. Lyles (COL) — $5,300
  • OF: Alex Gordon (KC) vs. D. Holland (TEX) — $4,900
  • OF: Justin Upton (ATL) vs. K. Kendrick (PHI) — $4,900
  • OF: Kole Calhoun (LAA) @ B. Peacock (HOU) — $4,300
  • OF: Matt Holliday (STL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $4,600
  • SP: Shane Greene (NYY) vs. J. Kelly (BOS) — $8,600
  • SP: Jeremy Guthrie (KC) vs. D. Holland (TEX) — $7,300

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

  • C: Andrew Susac (SF) @ J. Lyles (COL) — $3,400
  • C: Geovany Soto (OAK) vs. J. Paxton (SEA) — $3,100
  • 1B: Chris Carter (HOU) vs. C. Wilson (LAA) — $4,800
  • 1B: Nate Freiman (OAK) vs. J. Paxton (SEA) — $3,700
  • 2B: Javier Baez (CHC) vs. Y. Gallardo (MIL) — $4,000
  • 2B: Jeff Baker (MIA) vs. J. Niese (NYM) — $2,800
  • 3B: Luis Valbuena (CHC) vs. Y. Gallardo (MIL) — $4,000
  • 3B: Chris Johnson (ATL) vs. K. Kendrick (PHI) — $3,500
  • SS: Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. K. Lobstein (DET) — $3,300
  • SS: Jhonny Peralta (STL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $3,900
  • OF: Avisail Garcia (CHW) @ T. Milone (MIN) — $4,300
  • OF: Randal Grichuk (STL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $1,900
  • OF: Jay Bruce (CIN) @ B. Norris (BAL) — $3,500
  • OF: Jonny Gomes (OAK) vs. J. Paxton (SEA) — $2,900
  • OF: Marlon Byrd (PHI) @ M. Minor (ATL) — $4,000
  • SP: Hector Noesi (CHW) @ T. Milone (MIN) — $7,900
  • SP: Kyle Lobstein (DET) @ C. Carrasco (CLE) — $5,500
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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • colin

    giants? angels? Stacks?

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Definitely like the Giants @COL, but Lyles is an extreme, extreme ground ball pitcher. That should only be a stinger in San Fran’s side for the first 4-5 innings and they could knock him around, too, so I like that stack. Definitely like picking on Peacock but I’ve been burned by Trout far too many times (seems to go either 20 or 0 every game!) which makes him a good GPP bet. Unfortunately I don’t see a good 4-5 players stack with LAA because they’re very top-heavy (Trout, Calhoun, Pujols but then a lot of “meh” options).

      • Colin

        You trying to change my roster huh????

  • Colin

    How do you feel about petit and Kelly tonight?

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      I’m not wagering on Petit @COL. Kelly is generally a low upside option because of the low K rates but he “should” score 10-14 points.

  • aarhiga89

    Nats hitters vs. Kershaw today? Yes, Kershaw will get his 20 somehow, but not sure how much more… I said usually don’t bet against him but it’s a hot Nats team…

  • gerg

    Heads up, Abreu isn’t starting.

  • Chuck410

    What you think about Paxton today