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Daily SP Rankings: Weekend, Aug 16-18

Clayton Kershaw is something to behold. Even purely numbers-based rankings systems like these still recognize and honor his brilliance to a degree. Check out that 66.6% win chance! We don’t see many 60%+ win chances here, but Kershaw again continue to marvel. If Kershaw were to make 33 starts with Saturday’s 66.6% chance at a win and 16.9% chance of a loss, he’d finish with a 21-6 record. He won’t always face a mediocre Yovani Gallardo at home, but that 21-6 record passes the smell test.

  • Also on Saturday, Rubby de la Rosa faces the Astros in what could be a big game. De La Rosa struck out eight Angels in seven innings in his last start (5 H, 1 ER), and I started hyping him back in June. I like him more than the rankings suggest, which are based off Steamer’s projected 4.75 ERA.
  • On Sunday, Tim Lincecum gets the top draw in the rankings in his home start against the Phillies. The park is nice and the Phillies are 27th in wOBA over the last two weeks. On the season they’re 29th in wOBA against RHP (.291) compared to 21st against LHP (.307), which surprised me given their left-handed core of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins (against RHP), and Ben Revere.
  • On Monday, we only have eight games on the schedule and no real aces, so the top of the rankings are populated by the likes of Bartolo Colon, Jordan Zimmermann, and C.J. Wilson. Zimmermann is the closest to acelike, but Steamer isn’t extremely high on him. A little further down in the rankings, I like Kyle Hendricks as much as anyone!

For Friday’s rankings, click here.

For an explanation of how these rankings were calculated, click here.

Get tomorrow’s rankings emailed to you every day!

These rankings account for atmospheric conditions with data provided by BaseballVMI.com.

VMI-200x200While Park Factors account for the yearly average air density at a ballpark, they don’t account for game-by-game changes, which BaseballVMI.com tracks. With this data, our rankings are now more accurate than ever! If you’re interested in exploring what BaseballVMI.com can do for your fantasy roster, check out their fantasy package.

How to Read These Rankings

  • Stmr: Projected ROS ERA from Steamer
  • Rating: 100 is average and higher is better
  • IP/K/ERA/WHIP: Projected stats for the game in question
  • W%/L%: Likelihood of the SP picking up a Win or Loss
  • PTS: Projected points total in points leagues

Trouble viewing the embedded rankings? Click here to see them!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

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