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Daily DraftKings Picks: Wednesday, Aug 27

Yesterday I suggested a Giants stack against Jorge De La Rosa plus Matt Shoemaker in the rotation. Shoemaker and Buster Posey delivered big and my pair of Dodgers chipped in solid efforts, but the rest of the Giants did little. Overall the lineup scored 114.30 points, finished outside of the money in the Daily Moonshot, and won most of its double ups. In terms of rank, it beat 61% of all other submitted lineups for a slightly above average finish.

My three hidden players were Brian Dozier (7.00 points), Jason Heyward (0.00 points), and Alex Wood (17.55 points).

August 26

Tuesday’s Official Lineup (click to enlarge)

Today we have a full slate with no concerning weather systems on the horizon. There are also a few ace-caliber pitchers (who cost a ton) and some real scrubs to stack against (that might make decent GPP plays). Without further ado, let’s get to the picks!

Update: MIN@KC is looking dicey in terms of weather!

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Wednesday’s Official DraftKings Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

  • C: Buster Posey (SF) vs. F. Morales (COL) — $4,400
  • 1B: Hidden
  • 2B: Justin Turner (LAD) @ W. Miley (ARI) — $3,900
  • 3B: Pablo Sandoval (SF) vs. F. Morales (COL) — $4,100
  • SS: Hidden
  • OF: Matt Kemp (LAD) @ W. Miley (ARI) — $4,100
  • OF: Scott Van Slyke (LAD) @ W. Miley (ARI) — $3,800
  • OF: Hunter Pence (SF) vs. F. Morales (COL) — $4,800
  • SP: Doug Fister (WAS) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $9,100
  • SP: Hidden

I also selected Fister last time out when he faced the Giants, which ended up being a poor outing: 6 IP, 4 ER, 2 HR, 3 K. I’m not too concerned about that performance for two reasons. First, it came against a Giants team which I’ve stacked twice since then — clearly they have some talent. Second, Fister allowed two homers on his five fly balls for a 40% HR/FB rate (those numbers always look crazy in uber-small sample sizes). The Phillies aren’t as good as the Giants and if I had to guess how many homers Fister would let up, my money would be on either zero or one. Since he rarely walks anyone, a lone homer probably won’t kill him. This is a safe start even if it doesn’t have the upside of a Corey Kluber @CHW start.

Speaking of the Giants, let’s try them again, shall we? Posey went off last night for two homers and 30.00 points, which gives him two 30+ point days (plus a 23 point day) in his last 10 games. He’s hitting like the player we expected him to be, and Franklin Morales is pretty terrible. I’ll also select Sandoval and Pence just to get in on the Morales action as much as possible.

Like Morales, Wade Miley can be exploited in these daily fantasy games. He’s allowed 22 HR on the season (including 17 in just 78.1 IP at home this season!) and the Dodgers have some players who can hit lefties. Turner has been on a tear, averaging 8.4 points over his last 10 games, Kemp homered last night and continues to save his season, and Van Slyke is the Dodgers’ outfielder of choice against LHP. Frequently I’ve said BvP data can’t be trusted because of the issues of sample size (usually too small) and context (spread over far too large a time frame) but there are some instances in which it’s telling. Consider this metaphor: Researchers are constantly on the lookout for evidence of Bigfoot, but to this date nothing conclusive has been found. We can’t definitively say that Bigfoot doesn’t exist because it’s nearly impossible to prove a negative, but with the right evidence we could someday say conclusively that there is indeed a Bigfoot (or, more likely, many Bigfoots). Van Slyke has seven extra base hits in 16 AB against Miley, including 4 HR, and is notorious for crushing LHP. While 16 AB isn’t ordinarily enough of a sample size to eliminate random variation and allow us to draw usable conclusions (we can’t use it to disprove Bigfoot’s existence), Van Slyke’s performance has metaphorically proven Bigfoot exists. He hits Miley. Hard.

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

  • C: Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) @ O. Despaigne (SD) — $4,500
  • C: Wilson Ramos (WAS) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $3,700
  • 1B: Adam LaRoche (WAS) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $4,400
  • 1B: Victor Martinez (DET) vs. S. Greene (NYY) — $5,000
  • 2B: Dustin Pedroia (BOS) @ M. Stroman (TOR) — $3,900
  • 2B: Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. D. Pomeranz (OAK) — $4,500
  • 3B: Josh Donaldson (OAK) @ B. Peacock (HOU) — $4,600
  • 3B: Miguel Cabrera (DET) vs. S. Greene (NYY) – $5,300
  • SS: Jose Reyes (TOR) vs. J. Kelly (BOS) — $4,900
  • SS: Brian Dozier (MIN) @ L. Hendricks (KC) — $4,700
  • OF: Michael Brantley (CLE) @ H. Noesi (CHW) — $4,600
  • OF: Bryce Harper (WAS) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $3,800
  • OF: Danny Santana (MIN) @ L. Hendricks (KC) — $4,900
  • OF: Melky Cabrera (TOR) vs. J. Kelly (BOS) — $4,700
  • OF: Steve Pearce (BAL) vs. D. Smyly (TB) — $4,200
  • SP: Zack Wheeler (NYM) vs. J. Teheran (ATL) — $8,400
  • SP: Corey Kluber (CLE) @ H. Noesi (CHW) — $11,700

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

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  • aarhiga89

    Well, we all know of your past dislike of Mat Latos and Julio Teheran. But what is your take on Drew Pomeranz?

    • Haha well first a note on Latos and Teheran — Latos has suddenly become a dominant ground ball pitcher so his success looks more sustainable despite a low K rate (think Doug Fister, but not to that extreme in terms of GB%). I like Teheran but he doesn’t K enough people for me to want to pay for him (usually).

      Pomeranz worries me because I don’t know how many pitches he’ll throw. If he only throws 85 or fewer, I don’t like him here.

      • aarhiga89

        Well, Pomeranz is pitching against the Astros. So there is a ton of upside. Additionally, he is in a matchup with Brad Peacock, who is likely to be crushed.

        Tough call between Latos and Fister… I’d go Latos since the Cubs are pretty bad.

        • I won’t disagree with the upside, but it’s tough to rack up points if you only go 5 IP haha

          • aarhiga89

            Well, he does make a great pair with Kershaw…
            Kershaw is expensive but he does deliver the points… And whom does he pitch against other than the Arizona Diamondbacks without Goldschmidt.
            And you know 80% of my lineups today will have Kershaw…

          • Kershaw is pretty much a sure thing, albeit an expensive one. You’ll need either Pomeranz or maybe Turner to make it work — the question is whether it’s better to take the sure thing (Kershaw) and a possible blow-up (Pomeranz) or two semi-sure things. Keep in mind Houston crushes LHP.

          • aarhiga89

            Tough call on Kershaw… I guess it depends on if you want a couple $5K hitters or him…

      • aarhiga89

        Well, Latos just had some bad moments. It happens to even the best of the pitchers. He should be bad to his pricey old self on his next outing…

  • aarhiga89

    Let the record show that only 4.7% of people in today’s moon shot have used Drew Smyly. And he had 7 quality innings. If his price isn’t above $9000, I’d leap. SMH…

  • aarhiga89

    Marcus Stroman can be counted on for weak hitting groups…

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