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Daily DraftKings Picks: Friday, Aug 22

In an annoyingly short slate of late games to choose from, somehow my super-stack of Braves set itself somewhat apart. Freddie Freeman, Phil Gosselin, Chris Johnson, and Justin Upton scored 9+ points apiece, and Evan Gattis and B.J. Upton chipped in another 10. Matt Shoemaker was the story, though, pitching a one-hitter against Boston the day after the lost Garrett Richards for 6-9 months, and Tyson Ross was worth his price tag even when matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Overall, this lineup scored 129.35 points and finished 1,060th-of-5,704 in the $10,000 Moonshot, besting 81.5% of all other entries.

As guessed by a loyal reader, my three hidden players were Billy Hamilton (0.00 points), B.J. Upton (6.00 points), and Shoemaker (37.45 points).

August 21

Thursday’s Official Lineup (click to enlarge)

Today it’s back to a full slate, minus one early game (BAL@CHC). There are some questionable weather systems along the east coast and the midwest, causing reports of scattered thunderstorms for the following games: STL@PHI, SF@WAS, and ATL@CIN. None of these look overly concerning as of this writing (5:00 am EST), so they won’t hinder my selections. Besides, there’s a ton of offense to choose from today!

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Friday’s Official DraftKings Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

  • C: Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $4,700
  • 1B: Matt Adams (STL) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $3,900
  • 2B: Matt Carpenter (STL) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $4,500
  • 3B: Hidden
  • SS: Khris Negron (CIN) vs. M. Minor (ATL) — $3,200
  • OF: Carlos Gomez (MIL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $5,000
  • OF: Jon Jay (STL) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $3,800
  • OF: Hidden
  • SP: Doug Fister (WAS) vs. T. Hudson (SF) — $9,100
  • SP: Hidden

I didn’t want to pay for Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright doesn’t look like his normal self, Sonny Gray is regressing and facing the Angels, and I’m not a fan of Mat Latos. That pretty much leaves Fister. While the ERA estimators are in the 3.50-4.00 range for Fister, he’s still getting it done every time out and that means a lot. The Nationals themselves have won 10 in a row, Fister has walked just one batter in his last three starts, and over his last 10 he’s averaged 19.70 points. San Francisco has some sluggers but they’re a below average offense overall.

The left-handed Jeff Locke is facing the Brewers, so anyone who’s read this post before probably knows I’m going to have some Brewers in my lineup. I’m displaying two above but I like Gomez, Lucroy, Khris Davis, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and maybe even Rickie Weeks. Gomez and Lucroy are probably the best options today at their respective positions.

Kyle Kendrick is known for his struggles against left-handed batters and St. Louis’ lineup is stacked with lefties at the top. Carpenter is slashing .267/.350/440 over his last 10 games while averaging 8.9 points, Adams is undervalued on a daily basis because of his lack of power but he’s reliable and has averaged 7.9 points over his last 10, and Jay is currently on fire having posted 11+ points in six of his last 10 games. Better yet, all of these guys have good numbers against Kendrick and while I normally am wary of BvP data, all data for these guys against Kendrick comes in recent seasons. Combined, they’re 13-for-35 (.371) with a homer and, best of all, just four strikeouts. Jay in particular looks to be a great pick today because of his price, recent play, and numbers against Kendrick.

I’m not sure if Negron will play today against the left-handed Mike Minor, but I think he’ll be in there. If he’s not, Zack Cozart definitely will be and both guys cost the same ($3.2K). Negron has hit left-handers very well in limited exposure this year (.417, 3 HR, 8 RBI in 24 AB), and Cozart has hit Minor well (4-f0r-10, 2 HR, triple). In the end, it’s also Minor, who is very exploitable due to his hittability this season and fly ball ways.

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

  • C: Wilson Ramos (WAS) vs. T. Hudson (SF) — $3,800
  • C: Russell Martin (PIT) @ Y. Gallardo (MIL) — $3,900
  • 1B: Adam LaRoche (WAS) vs. T. Hudson (SF) — $4,700
  • 1B: Freddie Freeman (ATL) @ M. Latos (CIN) — $4,800
  • 2B: Jason Kipnis (CLE) vs. B. Peacock (HOU) — $4,000
  • 2B: Robinson Cano (SEA) @ J. Kelly (BOS) — $5,200
  • 3B: Aramis Ramirez (MIL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $4,000
  • 3B: Anthony Rendon (WAS) vs. T. Hudson (SF) – $4,400
  • SS: Ian Desmond (WAS) vs. T. Hudson (SF) — $4,300
  • SS: Jhonny Peralta (STL) @ K. Kendrick (PHI) — $4,000
  • OF: Michael Brantley (CLE) vs. B. Peacock (HOU) — $4,900
  • OF: Jason Heyward (ATL) @ M. Latos (CIN) — $4,300
  • OF: Khris Davis (MIL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $3,900
  • OF: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) @ F. Morales (COL) — $5,700
  • OF: Jayson Werth (WAS) vs. T. Hudson (SF) — $4,100
  • SP: Felix Hernandez (SEA) @ J. Kelly (BOS) — $12,400
  • SP: Yovani Gallardo (MIL) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $8,100

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • gerg

    How about Carasco against the padres tonight?

    • gerg

      Oops, I mean Astros.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Very interesting matchup, which I debated about for about 10 minutes. Carrasco is talented, has some good secondary offerings, and throws hard. He’s also been very good since rejoining the rotation and the Astros can be shut down. Hard.

      On the other hand, Carrasco is still just an average pitcher prone to blow-ups because of spotty command and a flat fastball. The Astros can slug and have scored some runs recently, so there’s significant blow-up potential here, too. I may have included Carrasco in this lineup and he’s definitely one of the higher upside options for the day, but there’s a lot of risk, too.

      • gerg

        I’m just not seeing a lot of safe pitchers tonight, I will wait to see who you feel are safe pitchers tonight.

        • Jecarl2

          I went with the odds and rolled Gallardo out there. He has 4 quality starts out his last 5 and is a pretty heavy favorite tonight. If we like the Brewers bats we might as well back the pitcher too!

          Plus he has 26 Ks to 25.1 innings in 4 games against Pitt (only 1 win though) but has held them to .196

          • loyalanlee3

            Playing Gallardo makes me nervous! Pirates are in the top of the league with hitting and OBP.

          • Jecarl2

            He looked good for 2 innings, oh well on to saturday

          • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

            I don’t think Gallardo will implode but his price tag seems a little high. He’s generally pretty solid but I’ve never been a big fan of his. Lower risk, lower upside in my opinion.

  • loyalanlee3

    Jay has been red hot!

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      In one version of my lineup I had $800 to spend after constructing it. It was either upgrade Jay or upgrade two other positions a little. I kept Jay haha.

      • loyalanlee3

        Definitely rolling with Jay and Duda for a HR.
        Also, I like Fister cause the Giants played 1 1/2 games yesterday with delays and are probably tired.

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          That’s a great hidden benefit that I hadn’t considered.

  • aarhiga89

    Had forgotten about Buster Posey. Should have picked him instead of spending on Trout. If Trout bursts during the weekend, we can play him again…

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Trout pisses me off because his PPG totals make him worthy of the money but I haven’t picked him successfully once this season. Not a single time!

      • aarhiga89

        Trout seems to be a hot/cold player than a matchup player. What do you think?

        • aarhiga89
          • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

            Nice!

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Yeah Trout is good enough that it doesn’t matter as much who’s he playing against (see his effort against Kershaw) but he strikes out a good amount and is prone to some major letdowns given his cost.

          • aarhiga89

            And yes I played Clayton Kershaw yesterday. I have only avoided him successfully in his Angels matchup. But it’s very hard to project Kershaw having a bad day, which is a solid day for other pitchers. And often times I can save on 2B, 3B or SS as well as one or two OFs to accommodate Kershaw.

          • aarhiga89

            Okay, Trout has hit ground-ball pitchers like Sonny Gray well. I was watching Wednesday’s game against the Red Sox where they showed his hot/cold zones. That day pitchers were directed to pitch far side flyballs to him.

  • aarhiga89

    So your other pitcher could be Drew Smyly or Shane Greene…

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      It very well could be haha

  • loyalanlee3

    I say… Corassco, Alex Gordon, Beltre?
    Not feeling confident about these guesses. lol

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      You shouldn’t be

      • aarhiga89

        My guess is that you’ll like someone else at 3B and SS…
        I’ll guess Greene as your 2nd pitcher and Ozuna as your last OF.

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Guess I’ll hafta reveal at 7!

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Anthony Rendon, Jason Heyward, and Yordano Ventura!

  • aarhiga89

    I actually am very surprised you hadn’t considered Freddie Freeman against Latos.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Who says I didn’t!

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      A word of caution with BvP numbers — they’re hard to know when to use but they always require only modest consideration. Freeman is 7-for-12 against Latos, which is awesome, but he has 2 K in those 12 AB. That means he has a .700 BABIP (7 hits on 10 balls in play)!

  • gerg

    I will guess Santiago, Miguel Cabrera, and Khris Davis?

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      My three hidden players were Anthony Rendon, Jason Heyward, and Yordano Ventura.

      • Jecarl2

        I had heyward too! And of course you already know I picked gallardo…fingers crossed

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Kicking myself for not going with Walters at SS — this close!

          • aarhiga89

            I had him but I’m kicking myself for not putting David Ortiz in at 1B and for not putting in Mike Trout…

  • aarhiga89

    One of the worst late MLB DK slates with SD@ARI, LAA@OAK and NYM@LAD. And the pitchers are all meh. And the hitters are just as bad. Any advice? This slate is so bad I’m considering only 0-1 entries…

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Haha I’m not sure I understand the question but I hope you got a team you like!

      • aarhiga89

        Would you consider Sonny Gray in the late slate containing the last three games only for DK? I’m considering playing the pitchers duel as all the others are pretty inconsistent.

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          I haven’t considered the late game lineups and strategy so I say this sort of on a whim, but Gray is at best an average value. That may be enough to start him in the late games.