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Daily DraftKings Picks: Friday, Aug 15

Yesterday’s late-game lineup was constructed from an extremely small set of six games. It scored 124.50 points and finished in the 82nd percentile of all Moonshot entries. Originally I thought it was going to be a big day as Adam LaRoche, Bryce Harper, and Jhonny Peralta all homered in their first at-bats, but after combining for 48 points in those three at-bats the trio contributed just two points in all remaining trips to the plate. Jorge De La Rosa defeated Coors Field (again and I don’t get it) so my three Reds did nothing. As expected my pitchers came through in a big way.

Our three hidden players were Jedd Gyorko (2.00 points), Corey Dickerson (9.00 points), and Jake Odorizzi (26.75 points).

August 14

Thursday’s Official Lineup (click to enlarge)

On Friday, SD@STL is the only game with a chance of bad weather, but it’s not a large enough chance to have me worried. All games and all players are worthy of consideration!

Day 1 of a one-week survivor tourney starts today!

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Friday’s Official DraftKings Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

  • C: Devin Mesoraco (CIN) @ F. Morales (COL) — $4,900
  • 1B: Adam Lind (TOR) @ H. Noesi (CHW) — $2,700
  • 2B: Jedd Gyorko (SD) @ L. Lynn (STL) — $3,200
  • 3B: Hidden
  • SS: Jose Reyes (TOR) @ H. Noesi (CHW) — $4,600
  • OF: Jose Bautista (TOR) @ H. Noesi (CHW) — $5,200
  • OF: Melky Cabrera (TOR) @ H. Noesi (CHW) — $4,300
  • OF: Hidden
  • SP: Madison Bumgarner (SF) vs. C. Hamels (PHI) — $8,600
  • SP: Hidden

Bumgarner has had an up-and-down season with some very odd results. Nothing exemplifies this better than his home/road splits this season: a 5.60 ERA in 11 home starts in the spacious AT&T Park versus a 1.72 ERA in 15 road starts. Tonight’s game against the Phillies is at home and weather reports indicate a slight outward wind, but I’m not buying those splits. Bumgarner shut the Phillies down on July 23 (at Philadelphia, of course) to the tune of 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 H, and 6 K in 8 IP. Would you like to tell me how he’s the 10th-priciest pitcher on the day? The Phillies hit LHP a little better than they hit RHP, which is odd given their lefty-heavy core, but even then they’re the 21st-ranked offense in wOBA against LHP (.307).

Yesterday I started Mesoraco at Colorado against a left-handed starter and it didn’t work out too well. Today we get a chance at redemption as Mesoraco faces yet another left-hander in Colorado, Franklin Morales. Thankfully for us, Morales is far worse than Jorge De La Rosa and right-handers have crushed him this season: .400 wOBA and 16 HR allowed in 78 IP (a massive 41 HR per 200 IP pace). I’ll pay the hefty price tag as Mesoraco can do what few other catchers can.

Today it’s a Toronto stack against Hector Noesi, which is made palatable despite the lofty prices I’m paying elsewhere thanks to Lind and Cabrera combining to cost just $7K. Lind has played in just two major league games since returning from injury, plus one minor league game, and in those three games he’s combined for four hits in nine at-bats and just one strikeout. No, minor league games aren’t the equivalent of major league games, but it’s all we have to go on. When healthy, Lind is worth $4.5K. This is a massive opportunity that I almost missed because of how buried he is in DraftKings’ first base pool. Hopefully other managers make the same mistake. Reyes is a high-scoring machine when he’s hitting and right now he’s hitting; he’s averaged 9.5 points in his last 10 games with hits in nine of those contests. I’m not wholly sure Bautista is worth $5.2K because he never really seems to have great games, but I can afford his price tag and he does serve as the glue in the middle of my four-man Blue Jays stack.

Like Mesoraco, Gyorko gets a shot at redemption today. Despite last night’s o-fer, Gyorko didn’t strike out, which has continued a recent trend of putting the ball in play. For $3.2K, I like the gamble but fully acknowledge there’s always risk in selecting a San Diego hitter.

Like last week I’ll be on the road today in the early evening and thus unable to provide any Best Values based off released lineups. I still wanted to give everyone some extra players to choose from, so here are my Best Values for Friday with my guesses of who will be in the lineup. Check released lineups to see who makes it!

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • gerg

    I would have thought Lynn against the padres would have been your 2nd starter?

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      You can still think that if you’d like.

  • loyalanlee3

    Lind will be the play of the day!
    I like the Angels against Martinez, mostly cause he’s terrible.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      I like Angels vs Martinez today as well. Prepare for everyone else to like it, too!

      • loyalanlee3

        Hmm… today I’m guessing: Cobb, Frazier, and Venable!

  • gerg

    Hope you got to change your lineup prof? The Reds went with a AAA lineup tonight without Mesoraco. I still went with Hamilton,Bruce, and your boy Pena. Belisle I hope you die like a dog tonight> nothin but love for ya though! Good luck everyone!

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Haha I didn’t get a chance to but I only wagered $2 so it’s OK!

      • gerg

        Nice! Well i went with Bum, Wheeler,Pena, Lind, Pedroia, Wright, Reyes, Bautista, Bruce, Hamilton! Looks good to me?