Jacob deGrom’s recent surge in strikeouts has been a big surprise for fantasy owners, particularly those who enjoy the daily version of the game found on sites like DraftKings. But moving forward, can we really expect deGrom to be this good (2.79 ERA, 8.59 K/9)?
The projection experts at numberFire.com have run the simulations and they’re not very optimistic of deGrom’s chances of keeping up this pace:
Our own projections predict his K% will drop a bit and his walk rate will increase, both normalizing a bit closer to league average. We also project a 4.08 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his last 46 innings (give or take an inning here or there), giving him a season-ending line of a 3.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 120 strikeouts and 48 walks over 127 innings.
The key stat I see there is 46 remaining innings, which is probably a good estimate given New York’s desire to manage his workload. While I believe a 4.08 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are probably a little on the high side, I think this is a great time to sell the Mets rookie. If he regresses at all or shows any cracks in the armor, any trade value he has will vanish, and there isn’t a ton of talk out there about his workload management right now.
I’ll project a ROS line of 3 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 44 K in 50 IP.