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Daily SP Rankings: Weekend, Jul 6-7

Due to some unforeseen, holiday-related scheduling complications, we were unable to get our Daily SP Rankings for Saturday, July 5 out in advance of Friday’s games. I apologize for any inconvenience. Below you’ll find our rankings for both Sunday and Monday. Best of luck with matchups ending this weekend!

  • On Sunday we have a complete lack of ace-caliber starting pitchers (well, possibly aside from Jordan Zimmermann), and that means the day’s top options are all above average starters with great matchups. Drew Hutchison is the exception, who has to face the Athletics on the road, but Steamer projects an 8.00 K/9 from Hutchison the rest of the way and over the last three years the Oakland offense has the 8th-largest gap between home and road OPS among all 30 teams (where they’re hitting better on the road).
  • Again on Sunday, David Price at Detroit (and Rick Porcello) but the Tigers actually have the 2nd-highest wOBA against LHP (.343). Then again, per Baseball Savant Price has a career 3.35 ERA and 23.8 K% against Detroit’s roster construction. Price’s current 3.50 ERA and 17 HR allowed have to count for something even if we all know there’s some serious bad luck in there.
  • Still sticking with Sunday, Rick Porcello actually ranks 29th on the day even though he’s facing the Rays. Steamer projects a 4.03 ERA and 6.08 K/9 the rest of the way, both of which are below average, and the Rays have the 3rd-lowest K% in the league among RHP (17.5%). Porcello has been great recently, but let’s be serious for a second; sure, he has back-to-back complete game shutouts, but he struck out zero people in his last start and has only fanned more than four batters once in his last seven starts. You can only get by on good batted ball luck for so long.
  • On Monday, Daisuke Matsuzaka rates highly against the Braves (110.2). Matsuzaka is only projected for a 4.44 ERA and 7.97 K/9 from here on out via Steamer, but Atlanta has the 7th-highest K% against RHP this season (21.8%) and the 4th-lowest wOBA (.293). They’re not a good offense against RHP; they’re the 4th-best offense versus LHP.

For an explanation of how these rankings were calculated, click here.

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These rankings account for atmospheric conditions with data provided by BaseballVMI.com.

VMI-200x200While Park Factors account for the yearly average air density at a ballpark, they don’t account for game-by-game changes, which BaseballVMI.com tracks. With this data, our rankings are now more accurate than ever! If you’re interested in exploring what BaseballVMI.com can do for your fantasy roster, check out their fantasy package.

How to Read These Rankings

  • Rating: 100 is average and higher is better
  • IP/K/ERA/WHIP: Projected stats for the game in question
  • W%/L%: Likelihood of the SP picking up a Win or Loss
  • PTS: Projected points total in daily DraftStreet leagues (where we play)

Note: Use the tabs to scroll through Saturday and Sunday.

Trouble viewing the embedded table? Click here to see it!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

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