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Happy post-4th, America. Last week we had an abbreviated week of picks due to the holiday, but when last we spoke we had a last-second change of heart thanks to some pre-hurricane weather conditions in Boston.
Initially we were going with Brandon Workman against a Cubs offense that hadn’t been scoring at all, but just before gametime we swapped out Workman and swapped in a trio of Cubs sluggers who set to take aim at the short left field porch with the help of a strong 20 mph wind. The gamble paid off as we scored 77.50 points and finished 6th-of-550 in the $2,500 guaranteed contest.
Our lineup (left) compared to the contest champ (right) — Click to enlarge
On Monday we have plenty of games to choose from and currently just one game in which I’m avoiding the pitchers due to weather: CHC@CIN. Today’s picks are coming out extra early so stayed tuned later in the day as weather and released MLB lineups clarify the picture.
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Monday’s Official DraftStreet Lineup
Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.
- C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) @ C. Anderson (ARI) — $5,315
- 1B: Mike Napoli (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $5,977
- 2B: Dustin Pedroia (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $7,385
- 3B: Hidden
- SS: Xander Bogaerts (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $2,757
- OF: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) @ C. Anderson (ARI) — $8,910
- OF: Christian Yelich (MIA) @ C. Anderson (ARI) — $7,803
- OF: Hidden
- UT: David Ortiz (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $8,967
- SP: Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) vs. K. Correia (MIN) — $15,079
- SP: James Shields (KC) @ J. Odorizzi (TB) — $11,656
- P: Hidden
Today’s pitcher selections are low-cost veterans Iwakuma and Shields. Iwakuma was slowed over the last couple weeks with a minor neck injury, but he finally bounced back last time out (6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 7 K, 0 BB, 12.25 points @HOU) and is set to face an average Twins offense at home. Iwakuma has scored at least 12.25 points in three of his last six so the upside here is massive. Shields has been in a major funk and has seen his price fall all the way to under $12K. True, Shields has topped 5.25 points just once in his last eight outings so the low price is deserved, but he’s still not walking a ton of batters and it’s really just been the long ball that’s killed him. On the down side, the Rays have hit 18 HR over the last two weeks, the 2nd-most in baseball, so perhaps Shields is catching his former team at the wrong time, but I can’t ignore the upside at that price.
Our Official Lineup features two stacks (plus two hidden players). The first is a three-player stack against Chase Anderson in Arizona. Chase Field is one of the game’s best home run hitting parks and Anderson is an extreme fly ball pitcher who’s already allowed 9 HR in 48.1 IP this season, so you had to know Stanton would be in today’s lineup. Yelich is pricey at nearly $8K so I don’t think a ton of people will select him, but he’s collected two hits in four straight games and would be a big beneficiary of a Stanton blast. Saltalamacchia has home run pop and serves as a major boom-or-bust option, but I’ll take the risk in this GPP-style lineup.
Stacking Boston’s offense isn’t for the faint of heart as they’ve been average or worse for most of the season, but Chicago’s Scott Carroll makes everyone look like an elite offense. Napoli is coming off a four strikeout game (in six PA, mind you) and hasn’t exactly been flashing the power of late (zero HR and two doubles in his last seven games), but his price is just under $6K and Carroll isn’t exactly a threat to strike him out. Ortiz has seven hits, including four doubles, and just one strikeout in his last three games, and he’s on pace for a 35-38 HR season. Pedroia has five three-hit games in his last eight. Bogaerts has been depressingly-bad over the last month or so, but he did collect two hits in his last game, he should be able to put the ball in play, and his price is too low to ignore. In the event Carroll gets chased after just two trips through the lineup, which is very likely, he’ll be replaced by a bullpen that has a league-worst 4.16 SIERA on the season, though they’re slightly better over the last month (3.50).
Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play
If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.
- C: Wilson Ramos (WAS) vs. C. Tillman (BAL) — $6,373
- C: Yadier Molina (STL) vs. C. Morton (PIT) — $5,222
- 1B: Albert Pujols (LAA) vs. J. Happ (TOR) — $8,669
- 1B: Freddie Freeman (ATL) @ D. Matsuzaka (NYM) — $9,049
- 2B: Ben Zobrist (TB) vs. J. Shields (KC) — $6,249
- 2B: Gordon Beckham (CHW) vs. C. Buchholz (BOS) — $6,119
- 3B: Casey McGehee (MIA) @ C. Anderson (ARI) — $6,838
- 3B: Evan Longoria (TB) vs. J. Shields (KC) — $5,359
- SS: Andrelton Simmons (ATL) @ D. Matsuzaka (NYM) — $5,618
- SS: Elvis Andrus (TEX) vs. J. Cosart (HOU) — $5,460
- OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) @ J. Masterson (CLE) — $7,629
- OF: Marlon Byrd (PHI) @ M. Estrada (MIL) — $5,517
- OF: Desmond Jennings (TB) vs. J. Shields (KC) — $5,297
- OF: Hunter Pence (SF) @ J. Chavez (OAK) — $5,620
- OF: Corey Dickerson (COL) vs. I. Kennedy (SD) — $7,319
- SP: Jesse Chavez (OAK) vs. R. Vogelsong (SF) — $13,771
- SP: Charlie Morton (PIT) @ A. Wainwright (STL) — $14,662
High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play
You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!
- C: Robinson Chirinos (TEX) vs. J. Cosart (HOU) — $4,902
- C: Rene Rivera (SD) @ T. Matzek (COL) — $4,259
- C: Wilin Rosario (COL) vs. I. Kennedy (COL) — $4,609
- 1B: Eric Campbell (NYM) vs. M. Minor (ATL) — $4,491
- 1B: Ryan Howard (PHI) @ M. Estrada (MIL) — $4,664
- 1B: Tommy Medica (SD) @ T. Matzek (COL) — $4,582
- 2B: Rickie Weeks (MIL) vs. C. Hamels (PHI) — $5,279
- 2B: Daniel Murphy (NYM) vs. M. Minor (ATL) — $5,338
- 3B: Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) vs. C. Tillman (BAL) — $5,761
- 3B: Brock Holt (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $6,689
- SS: Ian Desmond (WAS) vs. C. Tillman (BAL) — $5,672
- SS: Stephen Drew (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $3,335
- OF: Dayan Viciedo (CHW) @ C. Buchholz (BOS) — $6,875
- OF: Daniel Nava (BOS) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $5,261
- OF: Alex Rios (TEX) vs. J. Cosart (HOU) — $4,440
- OF: Marcell Ozuna (MIA) @ C. Anderson (ARI) — $6,854
- OF: Leonys Martin (TEX) vs. J. Cosart (HOU) — $4,876
- SP: Scott Carroll (CHW) @ C. Buchholz (BOS) — $2,700
- SP: Jarred Cosart (HOU) @ M. Mikolas (TEX) — $10,495