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Daily DraftStreet Picks: Monday, Jul 7

On July 15 during the MLB All-Star Game we’ll announce our $50 StubHub gift card winner! All you need to do is take 30 seconds and review our Daily Profcast on iTunes and fill out this simple form. We only have about 20 entries so far so your odds of winning are pretty great. Click here to enter!

Happy post-4th, America. Last week we had an abbreviated week of picks due to the holiday, but when last we spoke we had a last-second change of heart thanks to some pre-hurricane weather conditions in Boston.

Initially we were going with Brandon Workman against a Cubs offense that hadn’t been scoring at all, but just before gametime we swapped out Workman and swapped in a trio of Cubs sluggers who set to take aim at the short left field porch with the help of a strong 20 mph wind. The gamble paid off as we scored 77.50 points and finished 6th-of-550 in the $2,500 guaranteed contest.

Our three hidden players were Howie Kendrick (-0.50 points), Justin Ruggiano (14.50 points), and Ryan Vogelsong (10.25 points).

July 3

Our lineup (left) compared to the contest champ (right) — Click to enlarge

On Monday we have plenty of games to choose from and currently just one game in which I’m avoiding the pitchers due to weather: CHC@CIN. Today’s picks are coming out extra early so stayed tuned later in the day as weather and released MLB lineups clarify the picture.

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Monday’s Official DraftStreet Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

Today’s pitcher selections are low-cost veterans Iwakuma and Shields. Iwakuma was slowed over the last couple weeks with a minor neck injury, but he finally bounced back last time out (6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 7 K, 0 BB, 12.25 points @HOU) and is set to face an average Twins offense at home. Iwakuma has scored at least 12.25 points in three of his last six so the upside here is massive. Shields has been in a major funk and has seen his price fall all the way to under $12K. True, Shields has topped 5.25 points just once in his last eight outings so the low price is deserved, but he’s still not walking a ton of batters and it’s really just been the long ball that’s killed him. On the down side, the Rays have hit 18 HR over the last two weeks, the 2nd-most in baseball, so perhaps Shields is catching his former team at the wrong time, but I can’t ignore the upside at that price.

Our Official Lineup features two stacks (plus two hidden players). The first is a three-player stack against Chase Anderson in Arizona. Chase Field is one of the game’s best home run hitting parks and Anderson is an extreme fly ball pitcher who’s already allowed 9 HR in 48.1 IP this season, so you had to know Stanton would be in today’s lineup. Yelich is pricey at nearly $8K so I don’t think a ton of people will select him, but he’s collected two hits in four straight games and would be a big beneficiary of a Stanton blast. Saltalamacchia has home run pop and serves as a major boom-or-bust option, but I’ll take the risk in this GPP-style lineup.

Stacking Boston’s offense isn’t for the faint of heart as they’ve been average or worse for most of the season, but Chicago’s Scott Carroll makes everyone look like an elite offense. Napoli is coming off a four strikeout game (in six PA, mind you) and hasn’t exactly been flashing the power of late (zero HR and two doubles in his last seven games), but his price is just under $6K and Carroll isn’t exactly a threat to strike him out. Ortiz has seven hits, including four doubles, and just one strikeout in his last three games, and he’s on pace for a 35-38 HR season. Pedroia has five three-hit games in his last eight. Bogaerts has been depressingly-bad over the last month or so, but he did collect two hits in his last game, he should be able to put the ball in play, and his price is too low to ignore. In the event Carroll gets chased after just two trips through the lineup, which is very likely, he’ll be replaced by a bullpen that has a league-worst 4.16 SIERA on the season, though they’re slightly better over the last month (3.50).

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • JMToWin

    I like this team a lot. I’m not playing on DS today (focusing on the Qualifiers on FD instead), but you and I are looking at similar things. I like fading the Rockies today, as I think a lot of people will be on them, and I see Kennedy holding them to 4 or fewer runs.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Yeah Kennedy hasn’t imploded once this season (unless you count 5 ER in 6 IP imploding) so I’ll let other people gamble against him. Thanks for checking in!

      • JMToWin

        I always enjoy seeing what your take is on the day’s slate!

        I’m sure I’ll run into you in the DSBC Q tomorrow. I know you don’t generally buy into super high-priced tourneys, but do you have any tickets for the Super Qualifier on Friday?

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Nah I don’t haha — I haven’t been playing many GPPs, generally just the one per day that I write about in this post. I’m enjoying the daily double-up grind. Netting me a very nice, consistent ROI so no major complaints.

          • JMToWin

            Remember our previous conversation about FanDuel? I think I may be calling it quits on there! Something about DraftStreet and DraftKings (which has fairly similar structure to DraftStreet) just suits me and the way I see the game, for some reason. Last night, I picked up a seat in DraftKing’s end of year, $1 million tourney. But other than that one day when I barely lost on FanDuel, I have not even come close on there! Crazy how that works.

            I loved the team you posted for yesterday’s games (it was pretty similar to a couple teams I put in). Then half those players ended up sucking horribly. DFS is a funny game indeed.

          • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

            Haha DFS is definitely very trying — I’ve been nailing my pitching (for the most part). I went with Hughes yesterday, which means 5 of the 6 pitchers I’ve selected over the last 2 days have gone for 12+ without major investments. Just gotta get back into the groove with batters.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Can you believe this offense is 0-for-18. ZERO FOR EIGHTEEN! The pitchers are killing it, though haha

  • gerg

    Prof do you anything about Shane Greene who is going for the Yankees tonight? I never heard of him.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      25 years old, decent power stuff from what I’ve read and a history of moderate to low home run rates in the minors. Has been good with his control over the last two years. Cleveland crushes RHP so stacking against him could be a good strategy.

      • gerg

        I think the Indians bats are priced way to high?

        • gerg

          Do you like Morton Over Minor tonight?

          • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

            I don’t trust Minor

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Kipnis, Cabrera, Brantley, Santana isn’t too pricey. Watch the weather.

  • Tim

    Congrats on sucktitude Carrol I have never seen a 2700 SP before, or even anywhere close. He is cheaper then many RP… go Bos lol

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Haha I almost added Caroll just because of his price, but I couldn’t pull the trigger. People will stack Boston tonight just because Carroll is so cheap.

  • Jerreyy

    Cot damn, the weather is looking bad in Boston right now.

    We even had A TORNADO WARNING!! Never in my 25 years of living here have I ever seen a tornado warning. Another storm cell nearing Boston as I speak. More could pop up.

    Could be isolated, but das it mane.

    Anyway, game should be g2g, but just saying that there could be delays here and there.