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Daily DraftStreet Picks: Tuesday, Jun 24

Yesterday I said I was going with a particularly risky lineup. The risk didn’t pay off at all. Two of my starters actually registered negative points (John Lackey @SEA and Alex Cobb vs. PIT). My offense, while they hit for a decent average and did some positive things, didn’t homer and only had two RBI. That won’t get it done. Such a low score tells me I was unanimously wrong on which teams would hit well (except Toronto, who lit up Chase Whitley as expected). The good news is we haven’t had back-to-back bad days in at least a month!

My three hidden players were Corey Dickerson (2.00 points), Jay Bruce (-0.25 points), and Cobb (-2.50 points).

My other lineup featuring Milwaukee and Toronto stacks was better, but not by much.

June 23

On Tuesday there are very few weather concerns. STL@COL is listed as having a 40-50% chance of rain, but that’s really the only scare. For now, I proclaim all games safe to pick (which of course means something terrible might happen as games approach).

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Tuesday’s Official DraftStreet Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

Today I’m selecting two thus far disappointing pitchers for whom I’ve always had a soft spot, Bailey and Gonzalez. Bailey’s story is well-publicized: tons of talent, great peripherals, spotty results. The good news is that he’s a pretty sure bet for 5-7 K and the Cubs are in an offensive funk right now; they’ve scored five runs in their last three games combined, and they’ve only scored more than five runs twice in their last 12 games — both times it was six. There’s very little blow-up potential here and I think the floor is reasonably high with the potential for a fairly dominant outing. Gonzalez is my choice because of his price. It’s very hard to go wrong with a $10.9K pitcher and while Gonzalez does have strong fly ball tendencies, Chicago’s offense lacks punch outside of Jose Abreu and Adam Dunn. I also think Gonzalez will get the better end of the matchup against Jose Quintana, so he has a good shot at a win. Hittable, underwhelming, mediocre — say what you want about Gonzalez, but he’s scored 5.50, 5.67, 7.75 and 11.25 points in his last four starts. I could see a similar outing today.

Update: As much as I love Gonzalez’s upside here, I couldn’t ignore an 11 mph wind blowing out to left field. For a fly ball pitcher, that scares me. I prefer Buchanan to Ramirez, but I couldn’t configure a lineup I liked as much as this one for Buchanan’s price tag. Ramirez is pretty safe here (or at least as safe as a sub-$11K pitcher can be).

Rosario is a power catcher playing in Colorado. Though he’s not been great this season, he’s had some great games recently and the price is too good to pass up for the potential he has.

Martinez

J.D. Martinez‘s last 10 games (Courtesy: DraftStreet.com) — Click to enlarge

I’m stacking Tigers at home against Colby Lewis, and that means Jackson, Cabrera, and the Martinezes make their way into my lineup. I toyed with Ian Kinsler at the top of the Detroit lineup but didn’t want to pay the $8K+ needed to have him. Cabrera and V-Mart are easy selections when stacking Tigers, Jackson has been batting second recently and is 8-for-21 (.381) against Lewis, and J-Mart (not the best nickname, I’ll keep working on it) is raking right now (see the game log to the right).

Update: Jackson is batting 7th today with Davis leading off. Davis is 7-for-19 (.368) against Lewis and has the benefit of batting ahead of my stacked sluggers with a similar price to Jackson.

The Hardy home run watch is finally over! At just $3.5K I couldn’t pass on his solid point production, and he’ll face a hittable LHP in Quintana. Hardy has two hits in six of his last 10 and even scored 8.00 and 10.50 points in two of his last three games. Jones has three straight two-hit games, is limiting the strikeouts, has homered in four of his last eight games, and generally is a steal at $7.1K. He’s batting .410 with 6 HR in 82 AB against LHP this season, and he’s 3-for-6 (.500) with 2 HR against Quintana.

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • Gerg

    I like Smyly today a little better than Gonzalez. Any thoughts on Smyly?

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      I considered Smyly, but to be honest a fly ball pitcher @TEX (Arlington, more specifically) doesn’t seem like a great risk.

      • gerg

        That’s fair. Hudson against the Padres seems to be a lock to me?

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Hefty price tag and there’s no such thing as a lock.

          • Gerg

            True there is no such thing as a lock. Is he worth the Hefty price in your mind?

          • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

            I would say so.

      • Tim

        yeah the ballpark scares me too much there. Tex can still hit sometimes.

  • Tim

    Locke, Peavy, Ramirez, and Heaney, even Buchanan look better then Gonzalez to me today at somewhat similar prices.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      I’m still not 100% sold on Gonzalez, and I actually almost pulled the trigger on Locke, Peavy, and Ramirez. Here are some thoughts on all of them:

      Locke: Don’t see many Ks here — Rays 14.1 K% last 2 weeks, Locke only a 6.5 K/9 SP

      Peavy: Mariners are sort of hitting right now — 14th in wOBA over last 2 weeks, though definitely some high highs and low lows; also a lefty-heavy lineup for SEA. Definitely think this is the best of the group you mentioned, though.

      Ramirez: Three straight solid outings and Red Sox have been a bad offense so this one is still in play for me given the prices (I won’t have to change my lineup); I feel like Gonzalez has higher upside than Ramirez

      Heaney: $13.9K sort a little bit higher than I’d like given my cost constraints, but high upside here.

      Buchanan: This one is still in play as well; a lot of very, very intriguing lower priced SP today

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      I ended up going with Ramirez as the 11 mph wind blowing out in Baltimore scares me with Gonzalez’s fly ball tendencies. I still think Gonzalez has the highest upside, but I decided to make the move. Also prefer Buchanan to Ramirez, but not enough to jumble my offense in order to make Buchanan’s slightly higher price to work.

  • nevercash

    prof. i appreciate your efforts and pks. are free but i would never buy pks. from you hopefully when you launch on july 1st. your cappin will improve

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Good thing I don’t sell them.

  • mike

    no worries about the big storm in Texas right now?

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      The doppler radar seems to indicate everything will be fine. I probably wouldn’t start a pitcher in that game because of delays and whatnot, but I think the offense should be fine.

  • JMToWin

    Crazy story from me, Bryan:

    I ended up finishing 3rd, 9th, and 32nd in the DSBC Qualifier tonight…in spite of the fact I used Kazmir on every team. (One, earlier version of one of the teams had Kershaw instead of Kaz, and one or two minor changes with the bats to make it work. Typically, I take a screenshot of a team before I change it, in order to reference later the moves I made. Thankfully, I did not do so this time, as looking back would probably show me I would have won a 3rd DSBC seat rather than picking up more vouchers.)

    That’s not the crazy story, though. The crazy story is this:

    I started playing on FanDuel about 3 weeks ago. I had a rough go of it early on, as FanDuel is a different animal from DraftStreet. Over the last three days, however, things had finally started going well, and – whaddaya know! – one of the two teams I put into the DFBC Qualifier was sitting in 2nd/3rd place, with Jesse Hahn still early in his game. I was feeling good, especially when I moved into 1st place around 10:45 p.m. (Eastern time). I continued feeling good for the next two hours, as I remained in first place. The only person who could catch me, as games wound down, had Logan Morrison and Carlos Santana still going. He needed a HR from one of them in order to take the Q away from me. (See where this is going?) Morrison smoked a ball to deep right-center in the bottom of the 7th in Seattle…but JBJ tracked it down and snagged it near the top of the wall. Hurrah! One Santana AB remaining, and I would be in the clear. Santana walked (no harm done), the Padres game ended and gave me 4 additional points for Hahn’s win, and all looked golden. Then…

    Addison Reed blew the save in Arizona. And come the top of the 11th, Carlos Santana hit a two-run bomb. There went my lead. I finished 2nd. Crazy, crazy way to lose the DFBC seat.

    I had to share the story somewhere. I figured sharing it with you, in the comments section of what is now yesterday’s picks, was as good a place as any.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      …wow haha — you’ve had a fascinating (and thus far successful) run of daily fantasy in 2014. How do you like FanDuel? I played it last year and didn’t like it too much. Seemed too basic.

      • JMToWin

        Agreed about it being basic. To be honest, the thing I was most excited about (when I thought I had the FanDuel Q in the bag) was the fact that I could leave FD alone for a while! I don’t love it, but I do like the vast number of games to choose from, as well as the high payouts on the GPPs (and, I want to conquer the Qualifier on there before I leave it alone!).

        As “basic” as it is, though, it’s also completely different from DS. I absolutely could not win on there to save my life (or my bankroll) for about 2 weeks. It’s a totally different strategy required, for sure.

        Probably the thing I like least of all is the fact you can only pick one pitcher…and, on top of that, pitcher points are valued more highly (compared to hitters) than they are on DS. So if you whiff on your pitcher, you’re pretty much done for the day. That makes things VERY basic, and takes a lot of the DraftStreet-style skill out, in my opinion.

        Have you played DraftKings? I cannot stand their user interface, but the approach required for success is very similar to DS. I was able to translate DS success to DK success far more quickly.

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          I played for about 2 days when they gave me $11 of free plays (they were trying to get us to sign on as affiliates) but I wasn’t overly impressed. DraftStreet is still my favorite.