Yesterday I said I was going with a particularly risky lineup. The risk didn’t pay off at all. Two of my starters actually registered negative points (John Lackey @SEA and Alex Cobb vs. PIT). My offense, while they hit for a decent average and did some positive things, didn’t homer and only had two RBI. That won’t get it done. Such a low score tells me I was unanimously wrong on which teams would hit well (except Toronto, who lit up Chase Whitley as expected). The good news is we haven’t had back-to-back bad days in at least a month!
My other lineup featuring Milwaukee and Toronto stacks was better, but not by much.
On Tuesday there are very few weather concerns. STL@COL is listed as having a 40-50% chance of rain, but that’s really the only scare. For now, I proclaim all games safe to pick (which of course means something terrible might happen as games approach).
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Tuesday’s Official DraftStreet Lineup
Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.
- C: Wilin Rosario (COL) vs. S. Miller (STL) — $4,513
- 1B: Miguel Cabrera (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $9,597
- 2B: Hidden
- 3B: Hidden
- SS: J.J. Hardy (BAL) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $3,521
OF: Austin Jackson (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $5,125
OF: Rajai Davis (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $5,136
- OF: J.D. Martinez (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $5,155
- OF: Adam Jones (BAL) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $7,115
- UT: Victor Martinez (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $8,444
- SP: Homer Bailey (CIN) @ J. Arrieta (CHC) — $16,233
SP: Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $10,897
SP: Erasmo Ramirez (SEA) vs. J. Peavy (BOS) — $10,303
- P: Hidden
Today I’m selecting two thus far disappointing pitchers for whom I’ve always had a soft spot, Bailey and Gonzalez. Bailey’s story is well-publicized: tons of talent, great peripherals, spotty results. The good news is that he’s a pretty sure bet for 5-7 K and the Cubs are in an offensive funk right now; they’ve scored five runs in their last three games combined, and they’ve only scored more than five runs twice in their last 12 games — both times it was six. There’s very little blow-up potential here and I think the floor is reasonably high with the potential for a fairly dominant outing. Gonzalez is my choice because of his price. It’s very hard to go wrong with a $10.9K pitcher and while Gonzalez does have strong fly ball tendencies, Chicago’s offense lacks punch outside of Jose Abreu and Adam Dunn. I also think Gonzalez will get the better end of the matchup against Jose Quintana, so he has a good shot at a win. Hittable, underwhelming, mediocre — say what you want about Gonzalez, but he’s scored 5.50, 5.67, 7.75 and 11.25 points in his last four starts. I could see a similar outing today.
Update: As much as I love Gonzalez’s upside here, I couldn’t ignore an 11 mph wind blowing out to left field. For a fly ball pitcher, that scares me. I prefer Buchanan to Ramirez, but I couldn’t configure a lineup I liked as much as this one for Buchanan’s price tag. Ramirez is pretty safe here (or at least as safe as a sub-$11K pitcher can be).
Rosario is a power catcher playing in Colorado. Though he’s not been great this season, he’s had some great games recently and the price is too good to pass up for the potential he has.
I’m stacking Tigers at home against Colby Lewis, and that means Jackson, Cabrera, and the Martinezes make their way into my lineup. I toyed with Ian Kinsler at the top of the Detroit lineup but didn’t want to pay the $8K+ needed to have him. Cabrera and V-Mart are easy selections when stacking Tigers, Jackson has been batting second recently and is 8-for-21 (.381) against Lewis, and J-Mart (not the best nickname, I’ll keep working on it) is raking right now (see the game log to the right).
Update: Jackson is batting 7th today with Davis leading off. Davis is 7-for-19 (.368) against Lewis and has the benefit of batting ahead of my stacked sluggers with a similar price to Jackson.
The Hardy home run watch is finally over! At just $3.5K I couldn’t pass on his solid point production, and he’ll face a hittable LHP in Quintana. Hardy has two hits in six of his last 10 and even scored 8.00 and 10.50 points in two of his last three games. Jones has three straight two-hit games, is limiting the strikeouts, has homered in four of his last eight games, and generally is a steal at $7.1K. He’s batting .410 with 6 HR in 82 AB against LHP this season, and he’s 3-for-6 (.500) with 2 HR against Quintana.
Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play
If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.
- C: Evan Gattis (ATL) @ S. Feldman (HOU) — $7,364
- C: Miguel Montero (ARI) vs. J. Masterson (CLE) — $5,871
- 1B: Anthony Rizzo (CHC) vs. H. Bailey (CIN) — $7,034
- 1B: Adam LaRoche (WAS) @ Y. Gallardo (MIL) — $6,073
- 2B: Ian Kinsler (DET) vs. C. Lewis (DET) — $8,136
- 2B: Howie Kendrick (LAA) vs. K. Gibson (MIN) — $5,620
- 3B: Evan Longoria (TB) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $6,879
- 3B: Conor Gillaspie (CHW) @ M. Gonzalez (BAL) — $5,035
- SS: Jhonny Peralta (STL) @ J. De La Rosa (COL) — $5,489
- SS: Elvis Andrus (TEX) vs. D. Smyly (DET) — $6,298
- OF: Brett Gardner (NYY) @ M. Buehrle (TOR) — $6,222
- OF: Steve Pearce (BAL) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $5,110
- OF: Alex Rios (TEX) vs. D. Smyly (DET) — $5,822
- OF: Matt Holliday (STL) @ J. De La Rosa (COL) — $6,291
- OF: Melky Cabrera (TOR) vs. D. Phelps (NYY) — $7,400
- SP: Tim Hudson (SF) vs. J. Hahn (SD) — $17,685
- SP: C.J. Wilson (LAA) vs. K. Gibson (MIN) — $17,429
High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play
You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!
- C: Stephen Vogt (OAK) @ B. Colon (NYM) — $4,978
- C: Alex Avila (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $3,947
- 1B: Eric Campbell (NYM) vs. S. Kazmir (OAK) — $3,758
- 1B: Jon Singleton (HOU) vs. A. Harang (ATL) — $5,799
- 2B: Ben Zobrist (TB) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $4,761
- 2B: Sean Rodriguez (TB) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $4,687
- 3B: Justin Turner (LAD) @ D. Duffy (KC) — $4,333
- 3B: Carlos Santana (CLE) @ W. Miley (ARI) — $6,369
- SS: Ian Desmond (WAS) @ Y. Gallardo (MIL) — $4,659
- SS: Xander Bogaerts (BOS) @ E. Ramirez (SEA) — $4,789
- OF: Austin Jackson (DET) vs. C. Lewis (TEX) — $5,125
- OF: Nelson Cruz (BAL) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $7,021
- OF: Marlon Byrd (PHI) vs. A. Heaney (MIA) — $5,121
- OF: Brandon Guyer (TB) vs. J. Locke (PIT) — $4,829
- OF: Scott Van Slyke (LAD) @ D. Duffy (KC) — $4,666
- SP: Danny Duffy (KC) vs. C. Kershaw (LAD) — $12,166
- SP: Jake Peavy (BOS) @ E. Ramirez (SEA) — $10,303
- SP: See comments section as it’s an interesting day of SP