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Daily DraftStreet Picks: Thursday, Jun 26

Yesterday’s lineup was looking promising early as Jose Reyes hit a leadoff homer and the offense put together a solid start, but then Detroit’s Martinez’s outperformed Miguel Cabrera and Rajai Davis and Hisashi Iwakuma imploded against a weak Boston lineup. Overall, we scored 50.92 points and finished 826th-of-1,650 — literally right in the middle. We won some double-ups but it was a minor loss on the day.

Our three hidden players were Mike Trout (1.00 point), Kole Calhoun (4.25 points), and Iwakuma (-1.25 points).

We also unveiled a second lineup yesterday with many of the same selections as the first; it scored 44.58 points.

June 25

Our lineup (left) compared to the contest champ (right) — Click to enlarge

Thursday gives us an already shortened slate of games with a few early games taken out of the mix. As a result it’s a relatively shallow day of offerings, but there are some elite pitchers, some good gambles, and plenty of stackable offensive combinations. There also appears to be clear weather on the horizon.

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Thursday’s Official DraftStreet Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

  • C: Dioner Navarro (TOR) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $4,855
  • 1B: Adam Lind (TOR) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $6,446
  • 2B: Rickie Weeks (MIL) @ C. Friedrich (COL) — $4,968
  • 3B: Aramis Ramirez (MIL) @ C. Friedrich (COL) — $6,580
  • SS: Jose Reyes (TOR) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $7,611
  • OF: Melky Cabrera (TOR) vs. S. Carroll (CHW) — $7,555
  • OF: Khris Davis (MIL) @ C. Friedrich (CHW) — $6,486
  • OF: Hidden
  • UT: Hidden
  • SP: Cole Hamels (PHI) vs. T. Koehler (MIA) — $21,720
  • SP: Hidden
  • P: Trevor Rosenthal (STL) @ J. Beckett (LAD) — $3,520

There isn’t a ton of thought that needs to be put into selecting Hamels against the Marlins. Tom Koehler has been disappointing this year despite his great stuff so this should be a fairly easy victory for the Phillies, and the Marlins have a .275 wOBA (27th) over the last two weeks with a 25.6 K%. I really enjoyed the results I saw yesterday from selecting Steve Cishek (7.00 points for under $4K) so I’ll employ the same strategy today. Rosenthal is backed by Adam Wainwright as the Cardinals travel to LA to take on Josh Beckett. This should be a pitcher’s duel, but I have more faith in Wainwright coming away with a 3-2 or 4-3 victory (or something similar).

Despite fewer games on the schedule today, there are a ton of opportunities to stack. By my estimation, Toronto vs. Scott Carroll, Milwaukee vs. Christian Friedrich, and Detroit at Nick Martinez are all great stacking options, and even Texas vs. Rick Porcello and ChiSox at J.A. Happ have some nice potential (among others).

I’ll go with the Blue Jays as Carroll doesn’t have anything frightening — his K% on the year is 9.7%! As I said yesterday when Reyes took on Hiroki Kuroda, whom he’d never struck out against, Reyes is dangerous when he puts the ball in play. He went 3-for-5 and scored 13.50 points. I’ll pick him again. As much as I wanted to take Edwin Encarnacion, he was well over $9K and I liked Lind’s value at the same position. It allowed me to toss in some extra sluggers elsewhere. Cabrera found his way into my OF despite being one of the priciest options because I can envision Lind having a big day behind him, and Navarro was cheap and has flashed some stick in recent games.

But wait, there’s more! I’m also featuring a bunch of Brewers as they’re at home against the left-handed Friedrich. Due to his handedness, it’s likely that Rickie Weeks starts over Scooter Gennett, but we won’t know until lineups are released. Weeks has been Milwaukee’s leadoff man against LHP. Ramirez and Braun got the day off yesterday just to rest (Ramirez hadn’t had a day off since being activated from the DL on June 4) so I expect both back in the lineup today. Ramirez homered twice in Milwaukee’s three-game trip to Coors last week, and Miller Park is almost as friendly. Ramirez is also batting .326 with 5 HR in 43 AB against LHP this season. He’s always flashed more power against southpaws. Davis has also had some impressive power in his short career against LHP, slugging 12 HR in just 116 AB against lefties over the last two seasons.

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • JMToWin

    In case anyone who reads this cares: I don’t like the Tigers bats today as much as most will. Nick Martinez has been more up and down than consistently bad. I’d much rather stack against a “consistently bad” guy (such as Carroll) than against a guy like Martinez who has shown flashes of being able to shut down a team (including, if my memory serves me correctly, the Tigers earlier this year – to the tune of something like 1 ER in 6 IP).

    Of course, that’s easy for me to say, as DraftKings is the only site I’m playing on tonight (where you can use up to 6 hitters from one team). I’m using 6 Blue Jays bats and tossing in two other bats from other teams, rather than mixing in Tigers.

    Of course, the Tigers could go off against Martinez. But if you’re looking for a GPP edge, it’s worth recognizing that the Tigers will be highly owned, and one could separate oneself from the pack by fading the Tigers and hoping they have a poor game.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Thanks for the thoughts. I really agree with your last comment there: “Tigers will be highly owned, and one could separate oneself from the pack by fading the Tigers and hoping they have a poor game.”

      I do think it’s a risky stack than Carroll, but one with more upside as Martinez is an extreme, extreme fly ball pitcher. Those guys are either great or awful (more often) than ground ball pitchers due to the boom or bust nature of fly balls.

      • JMToWin

        All very good points – and that’s why you’re the professor!