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Daily DraftStreet Picks: Monday, Jun 23

Welcome back to our Daily DraftStreet Picks! When last we spoke, I suggested a Rockies stack and a trio of moderately priced SP. Our squad racked up 80.58 points, but it was an extremely high-scoring day so we only managed to cash in the lower levels of the GPPs and we won all of our double-ups.

Our three hidden players were Yoenis Cespedes (3.25 points), Josh Rutledge (-0.75 points), and Jaime Garcia (4.75 points). At least the guys we suggested were awesome. If you filled in with any three other players you likely had a banner day.

june 21

Our lineup (left) versus the contest champ (right)

Monday brings us a slightly reduced slate, but all of the games are 7:00 pm EST starts and there are only a few weather situations to monitor: CIN@CHC (30%), LAD@KC (30%), and STL@COL (40%). I won’t avoid SP in these games for now, but that could change as game time approaches and weather forecasts become more reliable.

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Monday’s Official DraftStreet Lineup

Note: Lineup subject to change due to weather and released MLB lineups. Check back before contest lineups lock for our final lineup.

Lackey was a fairly easy choice today as he’ll travel to Seattle to take on a Mariners offense that ranks in the bottom-third of the league in wOBA on the season (.295, 29th), in the last two weeks (.289, 24th), and against RHP (.303, 23rd). Seattle also strikes out at least 20% of the time in each of those scenarios, Safeco Field should help suppress homers, and Lackey is just a good pitcher. I’d take him over Jeff Samardzija @CIN and Zack Greinke @KC, both of whom cost more. Eovaldi is risk here because he’s not been good in his last two outings (-1.08 and -0.25 points), but he has the ability to dominate on any given day and Philadelphia’s offense isn’t very imposing. We could see a two point day or a 15 point day. For a GPP style lineup, the upside is worth it for the cost.

The Cardinals aren’t the best team to get the Coors Field boost because even with the friendly hitting advantage they’re still not going to hit many homers. That said, Molina and Peralta are both pretty cheap and come with certain assurances. Molina should rack up around five points facing Chacin, and Peralta has been good at putting the ball in play and should get a couple points himself with a solid chance at a homer. I don’t like Matt Holliday today because of the cost. Allen Craig is a solid risk because I think he has decent pop and is rather affordable, but I like other OF values better.

There weren’t any must-have stacks today, so after a lot of deliberation I decided to go with four Blue Jays. Chase Whitley has been impressive thus far, but he isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher and has a 2.1% HR/FB rate on the young season. There’s a blow-up coming somewhere when all of those balls in play burn him. A start at Toronto seems like as good a bet as any, and you can’t beat Encarnacion’s price. How he’s under $9K is beyond me. Cabrera is a perfect number two hitter and a good value at $6.7K, and Rasmus and Lawrie bring home run upside at an affordable cost (especially against a pitcher who doesn’t have overpowering strikeout stuff).

Update: A reader pointed out Lawrie exited last night’s game in the 2nd inning with a fractured finger. He is not (yet) listed on DL reports so make sure to note this injury going forward. Jose Bautista was also injured in the same game (leg tightness) as was Brandon Phillips (bruised heel). In Lawrie’s place I’m going with another Jays 3B, Francisco. As I said on a Profcast a few weeks ago, Francisco hits a ton of fly balls so as long as he isn’t striking out, he’s a good bet for a homer. Whitley isn’t a strikeout pitcher, so Francisco should put a few balls in play. For the price (and the stack as both Rasmus and Francisco should find nice batting slots tonight), I’ll gamble on the HR upside.

Zobrist doesn’t have much home run or stolen base potential, so his ability to score points comes from his ability to score runs. In Tampa Bay’s offense, that’s a scary proposition, but Edinson Volquez is a rather wild pitcher and Zobrist has good discipline, so I could see our second baseman getting on base a few times via either hits or walks. Two times on base with a run scored is about three points, which I think serves as a pretty solid contribution from a cheap player at a position without many standout, affordable options.

Bonus Lineup!

Like I did last week, further research and tweaking resulted in another interesting lineup. This lineup isn’t as boom or bust as the Official Lineup above, so I’ll be entering it primarily in double-ups, but overall I was very happy with its construction. What do you think?

June 23 v2

 Click to enlarge

Safe Matchups for H2H and Double-Up Play

If you only need to finish in the top 50%, safer plays are the way to go.

High-Risk, High-Upside Matchups for Multi-Player Play

You don’t win the big bucks without hitting on a few lottery ticket picks!

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About the author: Bryan is the co-founder of Baseball Professor and works as a consultant specializing in operational metrics and efficiency analysis. When he’s not working, blogging, or tending to basic human needs, he enjoys pondering the vastness of the universe, rewatching episodes of Breaking Bad, and avoiding snakes. (@BaseballProf)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • Jerreyy

    On FanDuel, lackey is crazy expensive. 4th most expensive pitcher of the day. Cain and Eovaldi are really low priced. To my surprise, even Molina is a high cost catcher, even though he hasn’t done much at all recently.

    Das it mane.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Yeah he was the 5th most expensive pitcher on DraftStreet I believe, but his cost relative to others was pretty good in my opinion. I agree Eovaldi was cheap and Cain may be my hidden SP (though maybe not!) but he came in right between Lackey and Eovaldi in terms of price.

      • Jerreyy

        If Cain doesn’t finally get it together against the Padres, then when will he? Padres @ home is just as easy as it will get for him.

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          He might not get it together. At least not like we’ve come to expect.

  • gerg

    Espinoza is still under 3,000. Surprised you didn’t go with him at 2nd?

  • Matt McComb

    Brett Lawrie fractured his finger. He won’t be playing today.

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Now that is something I missed from yesterday’s action…adjustment coming!

      • Matt McComb

        Yeah, he’s not showing on the DL yet (at least not on Yahoo), but it’s in his player news on RotoWorld. May as well take the opportunity to say I follow you very closely on here and appreciate all of the advice you give out, so I figure it’s the least I can do to share news. :)

        • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

          Thanks, I really appreciate it. Early sneak-peak…going with Francisco as he’ll definitely play and probably will move up a spot in the order against a pitcher who doesn’t strike many guys out.