Consistency is rare in today’s game, which is why Matt Holliday is such a breath of fresh air. Unlike players who you’re hoping ca get through a full season unscathed — ala Carlos Gonzalez — with Holliday you know you’re getting durability and stability.
To measure that durability, look no further than his games played throughout his career. Since his breakout 2006 season, Holliday has failed to hit the 140-game mark just twice and has averaged 148.5 games.
His production is also some of the most stable the game has seen. Holliday is practically a lock for a .300-90-25-90 season, which is an extremely balanced and productive line. Here’s how Holliday has done over the last three years.
Holliday is helped by the fact that he bats in the middle of a great lineup, which is why he’s able to put up great counting stats on a consistent basis. While his upside isn’t huge, you know the floor is high.
He hasn’t been stealing bases for a while now so that shouldn’t be anything new and the only thing he has working against him is his age. At 34, there could be worries that his production starts falling — his ISO has declined for the last three years — but he’s shown no signs of an abrupt end to his value.
At A Glance
- Strengths: R, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, BB, K
- Neutral: HR, RBI, 2B
- Weaknesses: sB, 3B
Players With Similar Fantasy Value
2014 Fantasy Projection
2014 Fantasy Projection: 630 PA, 89 R, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 3 SB, .296 BA
Overall Rank: 39 | OF Rank: 14
People just avoid drafting him because they are scared off by the age. The shrewd fantasy owner will take advantage of this perception and capitalize on the value.
Thanks to his age, Holliday should come at a discount on draft day — he just isn’t the “sexy pick” anymore. However, he can still bring it with the production so letting him slip too far would be a mistake.
While he’s been in a slight decline over the last two years, there’s no reason to believe that decline will accelerate in 2014. Holliday’s skill set allows him to post a high BABIP (career .343) and he continues to post an ISO well above the league average (.140).
Holliday is going through a bit of Torii Hunter syndrome, which is to say that the stats are still there, but people just avoid drafting him because they are scared off by the age. The shrewd fantasy owner will take advantage of this perception and capitalize on the value.
2015 & Beyond
Holliday is getting to the point where we might see some regression in the power department, although we haven’t seen it just yet. Target him less aggressively in keeper leagues because the decline is inevitable, but he should still be a productive outfielder for at least a few more seasons.