Since he became a full-time player in 2011, Trumbo has cracked 95 long balls in 460 games. Over the last three years, that’s the fifth-most HR in baseball (tied with Giancarlo Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion). With his change in home parks this year, that number stands to rise.
According to StatCorner.com, Angel Stadium suppresses HR from RHB by 14%; Chase Field increases them by 8%. What’s most interesting about this, though, is that Chase Field is actually more spacious that Angel Stadium. Take a look at each park’s dimensions below, courtesy of Katron.org:
Despite rating as an easier park to hit HR, Chase Field is actually more spacious. (Click to enlarge)
Instead of being a smaller park, Chase Field boost HR because the ball travels further in Phoenix. A lot further.
I study baseball stats and not atmospheric or weather conditions, so I don’t know the exact explanation for this, but consider the following data from the 2013 season, which shows how much further HR balls traveled in Arizona than Anaheim.
(Only HR hit by road teams were used to remove any bias created by half the HR coming from the home team. It’s assumed that the cumulative HR prowess of the road teams in both parks is the same.)
In total, visiting teams hit 81 HR at Chase Field and 80 HR at Angel Stadium, so the total number of HR in both samples is almost identical. What I’m hoping you noticed is the top left corner of the charts, which shows the amount of HR hit at extreme distances in both stadiums.
One-quarter of all HR hit by visiting teams in Chase Field traveled at least 420 feet, but only 13.8% of the HR at Angel Stadium traveled that far. Even more pronounced, seven HR at Chase Field traveled at least 440 feet versus just one such HR at Angel Stadium.
It’s hard to convert Trumbo’s HR total from Angel Stadium to Chase Field directly from this data, especially when you consider that a ball can be hit shorter in Anaheim and still be called a HR, but it does serve as an explanation for why Chase Field is a better HR park despite its larger dimensions.
In the end, we can just look at the park factors for each and use that to the best of our ability. Trumbo’s career HR/FB at Angel Stadium is 18.3%, which is 13.7% lower than his career road mark of 21.2% (recall that we said Angel Stadium reduced HR for RHB by 14%?), so had he played his three MLB seasons in Arizona we could reasonably expect his home HR/FB rate to have been 22.9%. If we continue to play the “What if Trumbo had always been a D-Back?” game, we could also reasonably assume that he would have averaged 35.4 HR over his career instead of 31.7. That four HR increase shows up in our 2014 projection below.
At A Glance
- Strengths: HR, SLG
- Neutral: R, RBI, OPS, BB
- Weaknesses: SB, BA, OBP, K, 2B, 3B
Players With Similar Fantasy Value
2014 Fantasy Baseball Projection
2014 Projection: 658 PA, 83 R, 36 HR, 97 RBI, 4 SB, .246 BA
Overall Rank: 59 | 1B Rank: 14 | OF Rank: 25
He’s averaged 32 HR per year during his three MLB seasons, and his continued development and new home could soon make him a borderline 40 HR player.
I think it’s interesting to compare the At A Glance sections for Aaron Hill (here) and Trumbo. Hill has seven categories listed as strengths and five as neutral with zero weaknesses, indicating how well-rounded he is. As far as the 5×5 categories go, he has two strengths (R, BA) and three neutral (HR, RBI, SB). Trumbo has two strengths, four neutral, and six weaknesses. For the 5×5 stats, he has one strength (HR), two neutral (R, RBI), and two weakneses (SB, BA). You could argue that Trumbo’s projected 97 RBI actually is a strength, and I’m OK with putting it there — at .147 RBI/PA, Trumbo just missed our cutoff of .160 — but at best Trumbo is a power hitter with as many strengths as weaknesses.
This comparison highlights the immense value that true power hitters have, especially in H2H leagues where the below average BA doesn’t figure to hurt your team as much. Better yet, Trumbo’s dual eligibility lets you move him around wherever his power is needed.
As far as power goes, Trumbo is as reliable as they come. He’s averaged 32 HR per year during his three MLB seasons, and his continued development and new home could soon make him a borderline 40 HR player.
2015 & Beyond
Trumbo is on the verge of becoming one of the game’s few perennial 40 HR threats. Unlike Alvarez, whom I compared Trumbo to in the opener, Trumbo gets to showcase his awesome power in a HR hitter’s environment. Despite the low BA, you can bank on the power for the next half-decade, so value Trumbo as a .250/38/100 guy from here on out.