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Most Overrated Players Heading Into 2014

As a prospect, Jennings was often compared to Upton. That might not be such a good compliment after all...

In his first few years with Tampa Bay, Jennings was often compared to B.J. Upton. That might not be such a good compliment after all…

As you know, we are in the process of conducting a 2014 mock draft (which I am winning), and there were several players that I just couldn’t get excited about even though my brain was telling me I should.

Read our Early 2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Recap.

I’m not calling anyone out for picking these players, I’m just saying I don’t think their actual value is as high as their name value. The players on this list are all very talented, and are definitely good players, but you should always try to draft the best stats on the board and not necessarily the most famous names or pedigrees.

You wouldn’t give a smelly rose to your girlfriend would you? So why do it to your fantasy team?

As always if there is a list you would like to see please suggest one. You can also read the rest of my Offseason Lists here!

With that said, here is Offseason list #6. Boy, do I need to pick up the pace.

Most Overrated Players Heading into 2014

Desmond Jennings – I certainly understand the appeal. He’s all kinds of toolsy, he has a decent power/speed combo, and he posts fairly good run totals. It sounds good (so maybe this isn’t fair) but something about him just makes me feel like the BA will never be good, and there is some B.J. Upton-esque badness in his future. I would rather just wait and draft Norichika Aoki.

Buster Posey -– He had a terrible second half to last season. I know how great he was a year ago, but that’s in the past. He’s still a top catcher, but the separation in value relative to other good catchers just doesn’t justify where he’ll be drafted. I’ll wait on catcher this year, especially given how sneakily deep the position is.

Jason Heyward — In our mock he was not overrated, but we’re all really smart (what, you beg to differ?). The way others talk about him warrants placement on this list. Peanut brittle is more durable than Heyward — I’m just not giving him a pass on his inability to stay healthy.

Matt Kemp – Kemp is like Heyward times 20. Anywhere near the first two rounds is just insane to me.

Ben Zobrist — This one hurts because he’s one of my guys. I always own Zobrist, but this is probably going to be the year I don’t. He’s just fine as a top 10 2B I think, but I am completely over him as a top 5 guy.

Wil Myers — He had a really nice rookie campaign, you can’t deny that. I think pitchers will figure him out next year, and that batting average will drop by 30 points or more. The power is probably legit, but aren’t we really just talking about a sexier version of a healthy Josh Willingham? Maybe Willingham just never got the love he deserved, or maybe Myers is getting too much love. I’m sure one of those will prove to be true.

Manny Machado I’m not adding him to this list because of his knee injury. He’s a special talent, and one day he will be great, but for now his name value is ahead of his actual value (assuming he stays at 3B).

Evan Longoria I think people are in love with his “potential” but I have news for you people: By now, he is what he is, and that’s a borderline top 5 3B. He shouldn’t be considered elite.

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About the author: Adam grew up in a New York City suburb, which has doomed me to a life as a Mets fan. Attending Muhlenberg College and then living outside Philadelphia (during a run of some excellent Phillies teams) certainly didn’t make being a Mets fan any easier. Currently, he calls Boston home after attending graduate school at Boston College, and his favorite players to own include Ben Zobrist, Troy Tulowitzki, and Pablo Sandoval. (@ANodBaseball)

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • Diebel

    So you obviously dont like the Rays……which makes sense if you have spent your life living in New York, Boston, and Philly. Go Rays

    • http://www.baseballprof.com/ Bryan Curley

      Haha obviously you like the Rays! I don’t think anyone would argue that the Rays aren’t one of the best teams in baseball, but much of that is due to the strength of their starting rotation, and none of the guys listed here are pitchers.

      Longoria is viewed as a tantalizing fantasy player who seems to get hurt or let down in one area every season, yet people keep drafting him in the 2nd round expecting that MVP season. We haven’t seen it yet with 2009 and 2010 being his best seasons.

      Jennings? Let’s be honest. You expected more than a .250 average and 25 SB per year, which is what he’s done in his 2 full seasons.

      Zobrist had a down year, and if he’s not hitting homers or stealing bases, neither of which he did with great frequency last year, then his batting average really begins to weigh a team down.

      Again, these guys are OVERRATED and not BAD players. Longoria generally costs a 2nd round pick, Jennings’ potential might cost you a 7th round pick, and Zobrist could go in the 5th. They’re not bad picks, but you could argue that better values will be found elsewhere.

      Thanks for the comment!

      • Eric Portugal

        I agree about the Rays offense being something we’ve all been waiting a long time to blossom. I’ve owned each of the Rays players on the list (except Myers) at one time or another and sold at the right time on Jennings (2010) and Longoria (early 2012).

        If Kemp belongs on this list (which he does), so too does CarGo. Having owned them both, they are pretty much the same player and are certainly never there when you need them.

    • Adam Nodiff

      I could not have said it better my self Bryan. And the funny thing is I did not even realize how anti Rays I was. As a Met fan I have actually always liked the Rays, so it had nothing to do with how I feel about the team.

  • Longoria Defender

    Longoria hit 32 home runs (6th overall). Longoria scored 91 runs (12th overall). Longoria had 88 RBI (17th overall) Longoria hit 39 doubles (9th overall). Longoria walked 70 times (16th overall). In two out of three roto categories he performed in the Top 12 and Top 17 in another from a scarcer position (not 1B or OF), I’d definitely call that 2nd Round production. His BA isn’t great, but it doesn’t kill you. His SB totals are bad, but typical of a 3B. For non-traditional scoring formats, his BB and XBH are very valuable. He is in the beginning of his prime. Outside of SB and health, I don’t see what’s not to like or not worth a 2nd Round pick.

    • Adam Nodiff

      First, thank you for the comment. Second, your numbers are a bit off. His 32 home runs are actually 10th overall, 91 Runs are tied for 16th, and 88 RBI are tied for 23rd. So using your own analysis in all three roto categories he is outside the top 15. Either way, there are more than 3 roto categories, there are 5 – an in those other 2 you didn’t mention he is neutral at best for fantasy purposes. In AVG he is just above league average and in SB he actually hurts you – over 20 3B them had 5 or more steals last year (though I agree many of them would never be started in fantasy). According to almost any scarcity analysis that evaluates a players statistics relative to what is accumulated by the rest of the player pool (e.g. ESPN player rater) you will see Longoria well outside the top 24 hitters in value (2nd round value) each of the past few seasons. You can draft him in the second round if you like, and although I do not believe I will convince you of this, there is a slim chance he will actually return second round value. For what it is worth, in my points league last year (standard ESPN points scoring), Longoria was the 38th best hitter (qualified only) on a per game basis.

  • Keith Luke

    Three months into the 2014 MLB season, this piece looks worthy of a Pulitzer Award for fantasy sports journalism.