Buster Posey‘s second half last year was absolutely ridiculous: 71 G, .385 BA, 43 R, 14 HR, and 60 RBI. Putting up numbers like that in the second half will generate a lot of hype on its own, but when that same player has won Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, an MVP Award, and has two World Series rings, well, the hype is exactly where you’d expect it to be—in outer space.
For Posey, it’s not so much about the numbers as it the position he plays; he’s a catcher, who will get 600+ PA, and has top-20 upside in terms of production. So while he will put up similar numbers to players like Billy Butler and Aramis Ramirez he goes a couple rounds earlier.
It’s tough to predict improvement for someone who has accomplished so much before his 26th birthday, but if you look at Posey’s first 308 games as a pro you’ll see he has improved his walk rate from 6.8% to 11.3%, while maintaining a very good strikeout rate (career 14.7%).
His plate discipline peripherals back up his solid plate discipline as well as he makes great contact (85.3%), doesn’t swing and miss often (6.0%) and is very selective with a 42.5% swing percentage.
For those that don’t believe in Posey’s power, he has two seasons with at least a .200 ISO in his first three years. The only year he didn’t reach .200 was in 2011 when he broke his leg and played in just 45 games.
He turns 26 right before Opening Day so he’s just entering the prime of his career so it’s scary to think how much better he can actually get at the plate.
At a Glance
- Strengths: RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS
- Neutral: R, HR
- Weaknesses: SB
- Best-case scenario: Evan Longoria (TB)
- Likely scenario: Billy Butler (KC), Aramis Ramirez (MIL), Matt Holliday (STL)
- Worst-case scenario: Allen Craig (STL)
Buster Posey 2013 Fantasy Projection
While Posey is a great hitter and only getting better, his current ADP (18.2 overall) doesn’t allow for much room for error. There’s no question he should easily be the top catcher off the board, but he’s currently going ahead of potential top-10 players like Justin Upton and Evan Longoria. It’s the whole argument over what’s more important to you, stats or positions?
Posey will hit for a very good batting average and given his spot in a very good lineup he should be a perennial threat to drive in 100 runs. There’s a decent chance that Posey returns second-round value, but you’d definitely be paying top dollar, which isn’t normally a winning strategy.