Baseball Professor

Don't listen to the experts. Become the expert.

12 Thoughts On ’12: Montero (But Which One?!) Is Streaking Into 2013

We’ve looked at some surprises, had some fun with a blind resume and got to look at a pretty chart. We’ll continue the fun with 12 observations from the ’12 season (clever, right?).
  • Take a couple seconds to look at Miguel Montero‘s last four months of 2012. Done? Color you impressed. For those too lazy to click on links, Montero struggled through the first two months slashing .252/.349/.340 with just 2 HR and 21 RBI. In his final four months Montero slashed .301/.408/.481 with 13 HR and 67 RBI.
  • Matt Wieters may finally be ready to break out. He got back to his walking ways (career-best 10.1 BB%), hit the ball with authority (career-best 20.4 LD%) and he hits in the middle of a pretty decent lineup. The best part is after a “disappointing” follow up to his promising 2011 season, people may back off him and he could come cheap.
  • SafeCo claimed another victim in 2012. His name is Jesus Montero. Montero’s home slash of .227/.268/.337 was pathetic even by catcher standards, but on the road he slashed a much more respectable .295/.330/.438. What concerns me a bit is that his BB% dipped to 5.2, which could mean he’s pressing at the plate because he needs to be “the man” for the Mariners offense.
  • Let’s forget for a second that Buster Posey is probably a lock for the NL MVP. He’s only 25 years old and splits time between catcher and first base, which should be good for his future health prospects. Folks, we’re looking at a perennial top catcher who is also worthy of top-30 status because of his contributions in the counting stats.
  • If you thought that Alex Avila was going to hit close to .290 again then you probably haven’t been introduced to our dear friend BABIP. Avila’s average fell down to earth (.243) thanks to a more realistic .313 BABIP, but I didn’t expect the power outage. I’ll attribute that to his 46.4 GB% and hope he turns that back around next year. Bottom line:¬†Avila is not as good as his 2011 numbers, but he’s better than his 2012 numbers.
  • What’s the saying? You can’t teach a old dog new tricks? Well, it looks like A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz did exactly that in 2012. A.J.’s .223 ISO was his highest of his career (prior .163 in 2005) and he’s turning 36 in December. Ruiz turned 33 this year and all of a sudden more than doubles his ISO from the previous season? I’m not buying it for either of these guys.
  • This was covered more in depth yesterday, but it bears repeating; more catchers are playing more games, and that’s important because it further devalues the top catchers in drafts. Before 2012 we recommended you wait to draft your catchers, and that couldn’t be any more true in 2013 with more catchers getting regular at-bats.
  • It will be easy to forget Victor Martinez, but we recommend you keep the veteran catcher/first baseman/designated hitter in the forefront of your mind this offseason. He almost returned from his ACL tear¬†this year so we have to think he will be ready to go by February. We last saw V-Mart with a little less power, but his lineup got better with the addition of Prince Fielder and the improvement of Austin Jackson and his slash of .330/.380/.470 is just so nice.
  • Yes, Carlos Santana ended 2012 with disappointing totals, but he actually improved his peripherals. He improved his BB% (14.9), K% (16.6) and LD% (19.1), but none of that translated into a breakout sophomore campaign. I’m not too worried.
  • The other guy that we covered in our blind resume, Wilin Rosario, impressed with his raw power. The story here is simple. Rosario plays in Coors and should hit his fair share of homers, but don’t be surprised if that .270 batting average falls into the .230s next year. He swings at too many pitches (50.6%) and doesn’t make contact nearly enough (71.1 Contact%, 14.5 SwStr%) to sustain a good batting average.
  • After a monster year, Mike Napoli frustrated owners with an injury-riddled season that saw him revert to his .220-average ways. The power was still there, and I know I have my fingers crossed that he doesn’t land on a team (*cough* Boston *cough*) with a log jam at DH/C.
  • Yadier Molina is a fat(ish), slow catcher, but the man knows how to swipe a bag. Not only did he steal 12 bases last year, but he was only caught three times for 80% success rate. I wouldn’t expect it again, but it’s a nice cherry on top.

Follow Us

Updated: November 26, 2012 — 5:21 pm
Baseball Professor © 2016 Frontier Theme