Lester’s numbers from 2011 were down, but even before then, his best season was in 2010 when he was 19-9 with 225 strikeouts, a 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .220 OBA. Those numbers weren’t even top-five worthy for 2011, so thinking that he could finish as a top five starting pitcher in 2012 just might be a pipe dream.
Here are Lester’s stats for the last four years:
Consider this – Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Jered Weaver, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all had ERAs under three and WHIPs below 1.10. In fact, Hamels (0.99), Kershaw (0.98) and Verlander (0.92) all had WHIPs under 1.00. If Lester is going to finish in the top five, he has to cut out a lot of walks and hits from his game, and that’s not happening.
He can, however, certainly improve upon his 2011 line: 15-9, 3.47 ERA, 182 Ks, 75 walks and a 1.26 WHIP in 191 2/3 IP. To me, Lester is capable of 16-20 wins, a 3.15-3.30 ERA, 200-plus strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. Those numbers would be a career season for Lester.
On Sept. 6 last year, Lester went seven innings, striking out 11 while walking one versus the Blue Jays. His ERA at the time was 2.93. In his next three starts (all losses), he gave up eight runs once and four runs twice while giving up eight hits in two of the three starts. Lester certainly played his part in the late-season Sox swoon of 2011, and if he hadn’t succumbed to it, he might have approached his 2010 numbers. He still has only four real full seasons under his belt, so he does have time to improve.
The Red Sox and Lester have to be motivated to put last season’s disappointing finish behind them, so I can see him having a great bounce-back season. I don’t think he will ever be considered elite, however, as several young studs have emerged over the last four years. Guys like Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum will be battling the likes of the eight other pitchers mentioned a few paragraphs earlier almost every year. The fact is, starting pitching in MLB is much better than it was five years ago when Lester was a clean-faced prospect devoid of chicken and beer (maybe) in his belly.
Factor in C.C. Sabathia, Zack Greinke, a healthy Josh Johnson and Dan Haren, and it seems more and more that Lester finishing as a top fantasy pitcher is indeed a pipe dream.
