Archive | February, 2012

Player Profile #15: Roy Halladay | SP | PHI

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Do they get any better and consistent than Roy Halladay? Well, maybe, but they aren’t very common. Here are his six-year averages: 18 wins, 236 innings, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 52.7 GB% and 1.41 BB/9. Those numbers are freakin’ good and add in that Halladay has been increasing his strikeouts with age! According to PITCHf/x, he threw five different pitches in 2011 at least 15 percent of the time and each of them were above average in value. He’s one of those pitchers that’s smart enough to get batters out without overpowering them, which will be important as he continues to climb towards the 40-year-old mark.

Best case scenario: Top-five pitcher
Similar players: Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Cliff Lee (PHI), Justin Verlander (DET)
Worst case scenario: CC Sabathia (NYY)

Strengths

Consistency, endurance, any stat you can name. There are no other statistical breakdowns needed here. You know with Halladay that you’re getting a 230-inning pitcher with impeccable control, plenty of strikeouts/wins and a will be a top-five pitcher at year’s end.  

Weaknesses

Age. He is 35 years old and there will come the day when age catches up to him. Though the good news is that Halladay isn’t a power-pitcher who relies on velocity to get batters out. He just needs to keep his control of the strike zone.

ADP Report (15.07)

There are no surprises when it comes to Halladay so it just boils down to whether you want a top-tier starting pitcher or not come draft time. He’s definitely worth his ADP.

 

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #16: Carlos Gonzalez | OF | COL

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 3 }

Had it not been for a wrist injury in July, Carlos Gonzalez would have come very close to matching his MVP-like numbers from 2010. In just 127 games CarGo still managed a top-25 PSR and questions about his batting average being a fluke were answered with his .295 BA/.292 xBA last season. He even improved his walk and strikeout rates, which were a knock on him going into 2011. He’s still only 26 and plays half of his games at Coors Field where he has a 1.057 OPS over the last three years (.777 OPS away). Grab him early.

Best case scenario: Repeat of 2010
Similar players: Justin Upton (ARI), Matt Kemp (LAD) with fewer steals, Ryan Braun (MIL) with worse batting average
Worst case scenario: Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

Strengths

Power/speed, home park, batting average. CarGo is one of the few perennial 20/20 players and when you add his 30/30 potential it’s even more rare. He gets a boost in his stats thanks to Coors Field and he showed last year that he can sustain a batting average at least in the .290 range. While that’s no .336 batting average, it’s still very good considering the other things he brings to the table.

Weaknesses

Walks, away splits. While he increased his walks from a pathetic 6.3 percent to a more respectable 8.9 percent, I would like to see him become more patient at the plate. He’s only 26 so there’s time to improve that, but what should be a worry is his struggles away from Coors Field. His three-year slash away from home is .271/.325/.452, which pales in comparison to his home slash of .347/.404/.653.

ADP Report (14.0)

While he was bothered by a wrist injury in the middle of the season, CarGo answered a lot of questions about the sustainability of his 2010 breakout year. I have no problem taking him in the second round after the elite crop of outfielders (Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury and Justin Upton).

Read full story · Comments { 3 }

Player Profile #17: Dustin Pedroia | 2B | BOS

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Dustin Pedroia was able to quiet the critics by returning to form last season after an injury-plagued 2010. Not only did he return to form, but he posted his first 20/20 season and came very close to 100 runs and RBI (91 RBI). He actually had 100 at-bats batting fourth with a .347 average and 21 RBI so the 91 RBI might be a little high for him, but with a new manager and Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford able to handle the top of the order you never know where he will end up hitting. If Pedroia can stay healthy (barring a freak injury he should) he is a lock to be a top three second baseman. Sometimes it’s that simple.

Best case scenario: Top second baseman
Similar players: Robinson Cano (NYY) with steals, Ben Zobrist (TB) with better BA, Ian Kinsler (TEX) with less power
Worst case scenario: Brandon Phillips (CIN) with more runs

Strengths

Batting average, power/speed, lineup. His xBA’s the last three years have all been over .300 and he brings the 20/20 potential to boot. The good thing about the lineup is there really is no bad spot for Pedroia. If he bats second, he’ll score 110-plus runs and if he bats third, fourth or fifth he will rack up close to 100 RBI and still score 90-plus runs.

Weaknesses

None. He’s short?

ADP Report (19.2)

Even though second base is a deep position this year Pedroia is worth drafting in the mid-to-late second round because he is money in the bank. He has the skills, home park and lineup protection to be a top-10 player.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #18: Clayton Kershaw | SP | LAD

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

In his first four seasons, Clayton Kershaw followed all of the right trends right to his first Cy Young Award. He kept his strikeout rate consistent while improving his walk rate by over one walk per nine innings each season. He also started lasting longer in games, which helped him go from eight wins to 13 and finally 21 last year. He’s the man with the best slider in baseball (22.9 runs above average) and he’s only 24 so while it’s hard to imagine him getting any better, his 2.47 FIP shows that he should be a top pitcher for years to come.

Best case scenario: Top-five pitcher
Similar players: Roy Halladay (PHI), Cliff Lee (PHI), Justin Verlander (DET)
Worst case scenario: CC Sabathia (NYY)

Strengths

Strikeouts, control,  home park. Kershaw’s improvement with his control has been amazing to say the least. He walked 13.0 percent of batters in 2009, but has cut that down to five percent last year. Also, Dodger Stadium is known to be a pitcher-friendly environment and Kershaw’s numbers at home last year (1.69 ERA/0.89 WHIP) were out of this world thanks to a .249 BABIP/.188 OBA.

Weaknesses

None. There are no weaknesses in Kershaw’s game, but the one voice way in the back of my head is saying, “You know he hasn’t had Tommy John surgery yet.”

ADP Report (15.6)

We are getting to the point with pitchers where there is almost no risk in taking them and the only thing it comes down to whether or not you want to draft pitching this early. The early rounds are usually reserved for elite hitters, but if you want an elite pitcher, especially in a keeper league, be prepared to grab Kershaw early.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #19: Jose Reyes | SS | MIA

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Jose Reyes was in old form for 2011 even if it was for only 126 games. He scored 101 runs, stole 39 bases and batted .337, which extrapolated over 158 games (his average from 2005-2008) comes out to 127 runs, 49 steals and .337 average. His xBAs are consistently lower than his actual batting average, but he’s shown that to be a trend and not luck. Of course, Reyes comes with two used up hamstring muscles that could very well cost Reyes over a month in playing time. He’s a risky pick, but the reward can be oh so sweet.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy for 140 games
Similar players: Elvis Andrus (TEX) with power, Jimmy Rollins (PHI), Hanley Ramirez (MIA) with inverted speed/power
Worst case scenario: The hammies act up

Strengths

Speed, batting average, runs. Despite the bad hamstrings Reyes showed he’s still capable of stealing bases at an elite rate. He’ll also be batting leadoff in a lineup that consists of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton so 100 runs should be well within reach.

Weaknesses

Health. It’s not secret that Reyes hasn’t played more than 133 games since 2008 and his max is probably 140 games on a very good year. As long as you plan ahead you should be fine, just cross your fingers and hope he stays healthy for the majority of the season.

ADP Report (20.1)

For someone as big of a health risk as Reyes, this ADP seems a little high to me. Then again, he’s coming off his best season in the last three years so the hype is higher than usual. His former teammate, David Wright, is going 12 picks later for the same health reasons and I would rather have Wright than Reyes at pick 20. 

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #20: David Wright | 3B | NYM

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Ever since the Mets moved into Citi Field, David Wright hasn’t quite been the same hitter. His strikeout rate rose from 16.4 percent at Shea Stadium to 22.9 percent at Citi Field. His power also suffered to the point where Wright had two seasons well below a .220 ISO (.140, .172) when his lowest ISO in five years at Shea was .217. The Mets are bringing the walls in a couple feet starting this season so hopefully Wright can relax more at the plate and start hitting like he used to.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy
Similar players: Brett Lawrie (TOR) with more HR, Adrian Beltre (TEX) with steals, Eric Hosmer (KC)
Worst case scenario: Ryan Roberts (ARI) with higher average

Strengths

Power/speed. Very few third baseman are capable of 20/20 seasons and Wright is one of them. What sets him apart from the rest of the 20/20 guys (Ryan Roberts, Brett Lawrie) is that he can actually take it up another notch and hit the 30/30 mark.

Weaknesses

Injuries. Wright missed a lot of time last year thanks to a stress fracture in his back. I’m no doctor, but that does scare me a bit in terms of Wright’s longevity.

ADP Report (32.5)

Clearly the injury and sudden increase in strikeouts has fans worried as the former first-round lock is going in the fourth round. In redraft leagues this is a great value for Wright as I believe his power will be fine and hopefully he can return to the hitter he was before Citi Field.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #21: Cliff Lee | SP | PHI

By on February 28, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

When talking about Cliff Lee, you’ll realize a lot of adjectives being thrown around. Like with his awesome 1.21 walks per nine over the last two seasons or his unreal 7.9 hits per nine. Well, in 2011, Lee added one more skill to his already loaded repertoire — a lot of strikeouts. Lee’s strikeout rate has steadily climbed over the last four seasons and now stands at a cool 9.21 K/9 (25.9 K%) thanks to an increase of one percentage point in his swinging strike rate. Lee is one of the safest investments you can make come draft time.

Best case scenario: Top-five starting pitcher
Similar players: Roy Halladay (PHI), Cole Hamels (PHI), Dan Haren (LAA)
Worst case scenario: Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Strengths

Walks, strikeouts, endurance. Lee’s 5.86 K:BB ratio over the last three seasons is second to teammate Roy Halladay (6.47) so that just tells you how few batters Lee actually walks and how many he strikes out. You can also feel good about the fact that he’s reached 200 innings pitched in six of his last seven seasons.

Weaknesses

None. When you’re worst case scenario is Madison Bumgarner, you’re doing pretty well for yourself. If you can find a chink in Lee’s armor shoot me a comment don below and we can chat.

ADP Report (19.8)

The only way you will get Lee is if you don’t mind spending a high draft pick on pitching. I tend to wait on pitching in the draft and acquire aces via trades during the season, but if you want an ace it doesn’t get much safer than him.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 MLB Closer Chart
  • About BaseballProf
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • xBA/xBABIP By Year
  • Contact
  • #TheseAreStats
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Buy/Sell
  • Daily Dozen
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • FAAB Five
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Power Rankings
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • Twice is Nice
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009