The question isn’t whether Carlos Beltran can still hit, it’s whether or not he can stay healthy. For two seasons before 2011, Beltran struggled to play more than 81 games, but he managed to stay healthy enough to play in 142 games last year. The batting average and the power was there (.300 and 22 HR), but the same bothersome knee knocked him out for two weeks in August. That’s exactly the risk you take when drafting Beltran. Now in St. Louis, he will be asked to fill a major hole left by Albert Pujols, which might be the tallest task of the year.
Power, lineup, OBP. Even without Pujols, the Cardinals will still have Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman protecting Beltran in the lineup. Couple that with Beltran’s .199 ISO and .384 OBP over the last three seasons, and he should post healthy numbers across the board offensively.
Injuries, injuries, injuries. The only way Beltran isn’t effective is if his knee causes him to miss significant time.
ADP Report (147.0)
With Beltran it’s all risk and not much upside. You know what you’re getting from him (.280 BA, 20-25 HR, 5 SB) and that’s if he can stay healthy. Given that he has missed 199 games over the last three seasons alone, I’m not so confident that he will be able to stay on the field to help your team much and would rather spend a 15th round pick on someone who is more reliable or has more upside.