Karl de Vries is a reporter and web producer for The Star-Ledger of Newark, NJ. He’s a lifelong Mets fan and fantasy fanatic who operates RotoDiamond, a fantasy baseball blog. If you’ve never heard of RotoDiamond, I highly suggest adding it to your fantasy repertoire. Due to the high quality of Karl’s work, I’ve asked him to contribute posts to Baseball Professor. It took some begging and pleading (kidding!) but Karl agreed to share his wisdom with us. You can email him at karl.rotodiamond@gmail.com with questions, comments or lewd pictures, though I wouldn’t recommend the latter.
After former first-round draft pick Neil Walker completed his first full MLB season, a 469-plate-appearance campaign that saw him produce a .296/.349/.462 line, he quickly became a favorite second-base sleeper candidate among fantasy baseball pundits heading into last year.
In a sense, Walker, 26, didn’t disappoint, as he put together 12 home runs, 83 RBIs and nine steals — perfectly reasonable numbers for a traditionally shallow position.
But as the Pittsburgh native enters the prime of his career, can we expect him to build on last year’s .273 BA and moderate home run total in the hopes he’ll flourish into a .300 hitter and 20-bomb second baseman this season?
With nearly 200 more plate appearances last year, Walker’s numbers (.273/.334/.408) seem to have taken a bit of a dive from the year before. Still, he managed to cut down on his strikeout rate while increasing his ability to draw walks, both promising signs that point to improvement this year.
Plus, it’s worth remembering his impressive 2010 BA was the product of a generous .340 BABIP, which was followed by a much more realistic .315 last year. Even more encouraging was Walker’s 85.6 percent contact rate, an improvement over 2010 and well above average among MLB hitters.
Although Walker’s line drive rate slightly decreased, his ground balls jumped nearly seven percent from 2010, which helped cut down his fly ball rate. He also enjoyed a superior second half (.285/.340/.419), which is a healthy sign for a young player.
It might mean something that Walker hit .310 last year with men on base, or it might not. Regardless, Walker — who most often batted in the Bucs’ cleanup spot — will likely benefit from Andrew McCutchen’s continued maturation, a (hopefully) healthy Jose Tabata and Alex Presley all hitting in front of him.
A career .273 hitter in the minors, a .300 average in 2012 is not out the question for Walker, and I confidently predict he’ll finish above .280.
His ability to abundantly hit the long ball is much less certain. With a nearly 37 AB-to-HR ratio in the minor leagues, the switch-hitter’s dreary 50:1 ratio last year could provide a worst-case baseline going forward.
And don’t look to PNC Park to do him any favors. For a guy who hit 11 of his 12 home runs batting from the left side of the plate, Walker doesn’t benefit from a home ballpark that’s considered merely average for left-handed-produced home runs, and a 410-foot left-field power alley that helps depress would-be home runs from the right side of the plate.
There’s hope his emaciated seven percent HR/FB will flesh out a bit this season, but even so, Walker, despite a 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame, doesn’t project as a significant home run threat. Coming from a second baseman, I’ll be glad to accept the 15 or so home runs I believe he’s capable of producing, but I’m not expecting him to turn into the second coming (awful pun intended) of Chase Utley or Rickie Weeks.
None of this, of course, is to say Walker isn’t a valuable fantasy player. Currently drafted as the 10th second baseman in mixed 5×5 leagues (136th overall), he’s being selected ahead of guys like Dustin Ackley and Jason Kipnis, players who, despite their inexperience, will still be counted on by plenty of fantasy owners to hold down starting roles this year.
So look for Walker to continue his progression as he continues what should be a successful MLB career. Just don’t hold your breath waiting for a magical mutation that would land him among the elite second basemen by year’s end.
