Raise your hand if you were perplexed by how quiet the Yankees had been so far this offseason. Yeah, me too, but I guess the saying is true; slow and steady wins the race.
Before last night, the Yanks had glaring holes in their rotation as C.C. Sabathia and maybe Ivan Nova were their only legitimate starters going into 2012. Notice the past tense because now Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda are headed to the Big Apple while catcher and future-DH Jesus Montero is headed to hitter’s hell in Seattle.
Let’s take a look at the impact on their fantasy value, shall we?
Pineda moves to the big stage
You never know how a player is going to react when he moves from playing on Comcast Sports NorthWest (don’t quote me on that one) to ESPN and FOX on a weekly basis. So let’s not waste time on Pineda’s psyche, he’s only 23!
The first thing we need to look at is how much Pineda benefitted from pitching in Seattle.
The first thing that pops out at me is that Pineda’s FIP was actually better on the road last year and his xFIP splits were nearly identical. That being said, the effects of SafeCo Field helped him post a much better ERA at home than on the road. Does this mean that Yankee Stadium will be as unforgiving as the other road stadiums? Well, Pineda tends to keep the ball off the ground (36.3 GB%), which could spell trouble for him in his new home and he also primarily works on two pitches (fastball and slider). The AL East is a different animal when it comes to hitting and there will be a learning curve for both his sophomore season and tougher opposing offenses.
All that being said, he will get much more run support so expect a lot more wins. Pineda’s floor is a SP4 and he has SP2 upside and he’s definitely still worth holding onto in keeper leagues.
Montero travels coast-to-coast
The analysis here is simple, Montero will get more at-bats becaue the Mariners offense isn’t nearly as stacked as the Yankees. However, the big upside that Montero had in New York should be dialed back a bit because Seattle is known to hurt power numbers, especially to right-handed hitters. Before the trade Montero would be batting seventh behind a bunch of All-Stars, but now he will bat near the middle of the lineup and will be surrounde by the likes of Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and an aging Ichiro Suzuki. He should get eligibility at catcher which will boost his fantasy value and probably put him among the top 10 catchers if he gets full-time at-bats.
Kuroda stays to party in the U-S-A
No one is happier that Kuroda is staying to pitch in the majors than I am. I think I’ve owned the ex-Dodger each of the last three seasons and despite his mediocre win totals, he always delivers great ratios. One alarming stat from his 2011 season is that his ground ball percentage dropped to a career low 43.2 percent and he will need to get that up towards his usual 48 percent now that he is leaving pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. The fact that he’s leaving the hitting challenged NL West for the hitting heavy AL East and now has to face a DH means an uptick in his ERA and WHIP, but he should get plenty more wins with the solid Yankees lineup behind him. His value drops some, but as always he will probably be undervalued and a great draft day value.
