Let’s play a little Carlos Zambrano “Did You Know?”
Did you know that Zambrano…
- has a career walk rate of 4.05 BB/9 and has had a walk rate under 4.00 in just two of the last six seasons?
- has a career 4.13 xFIP that’s been over 4.00 for each of the last six seasons and league average or worse in four of the last five?
- that before 2009 Zambrano’s BABIP was never higher than .286 but in the last three seasons it’s been .300, .301 and .298?
- has a WHIP over the last two seasons of 1.44?
- has lost velocity on his fastball each season since 2004 before leveling off last season?
- has thrown his cutter with greater frequency each season since 2003?
- finished with with an 84.8 percent contact rate last season, a new career high?
I can’t tell you how much joy creating that list of reasons not to draft Zambrano brought me. I’ve never liked the guy and I haven’t wanted any part of him in any fantasy league for at least the last five years.
But don’t write him off yet. Zambrano’s temper and volatility are well-documented, but those are two factors which might just make him successful in Miami. Playing for the game’s preeminent latino coach in a latino market with a new ballpark, Zambrano might just decide he has something left to prove. If that turns out to be the case, he could be someone you want to add to your fantasy lineup.
Let me be clear, though — I am not drafting Zambrano. You shouldn’t draft Zambrano. If you’re in Yahoo! leagues you should click that little flag button that adds Zambrano to your watch list. I’m not a big fan of the other fantasy platforms but if you’re in ESPN, CBS or any other league you should click whatever buttons they have to make sure you don’t forget Zambrano. When it’s all said and done he could win 13-plus games over 180 innings with an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.30. Those aren’t numbers you’d want for a pitcher on your roster for an entire season, but here and there they could be useful.
As for Chris Volstad, don’t give up on him yet. His walk rate has improved every season in his four-year career and last year his 3.64 xFIP was actually pretty good (though his home run rate was high therefore so was his FIP). Volstad’s problem has always been his high OBAs, last season posting a God-awful .280 mark. Wrigley Field is homer-friendly, but Volstad is a ground ball pitcher who finished with just a 27.7 percent fly ball rate last season.
Ramirez, Omar Infante, Gaby Sanchez, Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms, the guys who made up the Marlins infield last season, combined to finish the year with an ultimate zone rating (UZR, a defensive metric) of about -4.7. Darwin Barney, Starlin Castro, Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker, the Cubs current infield, finished with a UZR of about 1.5 (it remains to be seen what they do about Baker at first base). Given that Volstad is a ground ball pitcher, the Cubs better defensive infield (almost entirely due to Barney actually) could help him.
Like Zambrano I wouldn’t draft Volstad expecting a change of scenery to make all the difference, but keep an eye on him as spring training and April games unfold.
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