There are two answers to this question: the short, quick answer and the long, detailed answer.
The short answer is Kimbrel was the 19th best player last season. Another season like that is a distinct possibility.
The long answer isn’t so cut and dry. While Kimbrel did rank 19th last season, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who will actually draft him as such. Still, his current ADP (60.5) is much higher than any closer in recent memory, but that’s because Kimbrel can deliver unheard of numbers.
Kimbrel tossed 77 innings last year, just under one-third the innings we’d expect from a near-elite fantasy starter. In general Kimbrel ranks so highly because of his elite-for-a-closer strikeout numbers. If we were to put his 127 Ks on the scale of a 200-inning starter, Kimbrel’s K/9 would represent a 5.72 K/9. For comparison, that would have put him in the same group as Jeremy Hellickson (5.57), Jeremy Guthrie (5.62) and Charlie Morton (5.77). The average closer puts up around 60 strikeouts in a season, which projects to 2.70 K/9. You won’t find any starters in this range.
Among pitchers, usually it’s only the starters that are even considered inside the top 75-100. Since Kimbrel is getting drafted in this tier of players, I think it’s only fair to compare him to the starting pitchers getting drafted around this time as well. The following list shows the five starting pitchers getting drafted before Kimbrel and the five getting drafted after:
- David Price
- Dan Haren
- Zack Greinke
- Yovani Gallardo
- Jon Lester
- Kimbrel
- Matt Cain
- Stephen Strasburg
- James Shields
- Ian Kennedy
- Mat Latos
Those pitchers rank from 10th-19th in early mock drafts, valuing Kimbrel as the 15th best pitcher overall. In 10-team leagues that means Kimbrel is getting drafted as an average number two fantasy starting pitcher. In deeper leagues he’s the equivalent of a high-end number two option.
But the problem with that is, while Kimbrel is certainly worth such a high ranking when he posts numbers like he did in 2011, relievers are extremely volatile.
From 2006 to 2010, there were 27 relievers who saved 40-plus games. Of those 27, five didn’t function as closers for the entirety of the next season due to trade (Brian Fuentes in 2010), injury (Joe Nathan in 2010) or ineffectiveness (J.J. Putz in 2008, Joe Borowski in 2008, Matt Capps in 2011). That gives us a 22-player data pool. Those 22 players averaged 43.7 saves during their 40-plus save seasons but just 36.8 saves the following season, a 15.9 percent decrease.
If Kimbrel were to experience this average decrease, his save total in 2012 would be 39. Assuming all of his other numbers stay the same, Kimbrel’s PSR would drop from 7.82 to 6.92 and his overall rank would drop from 19 to something in the 40-45 range (depending on the strength of the rest of the league). That’s still better than Kimbrel’s current ADP. In fact, if you were to project Kimbrel to have a larger-than-average drop from 2011 to 2012, let’s say one standard deviation lower than the average save total of our 22-closer sample’s follow-up seasons, he’d end 2012 with 29 saves. That’s a whopping 17-save decrease from 2011, which represents a 40 percent drop. Again assuming the rest of his numbers stay the same, Kimbrel’s 2012 PSR would be 5.37 and he’d likely rank in the 65-70 range.
Of course, if Kimbrel is experiencing a 40 percent drop in his save totals, he’s probably not replicating a 2.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Let’s arbitrarily give him a 3.00 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and assume he experiences the average decrease in save totals described above, 15.9 percent (39 saves). Those numbers would equal a 5.26 PSR and a rank likely in the 67-72 range.
This is the line that I would feel safe projecting from Kimbrel because I think there’s an equal chance he finishes 2012 with better or worse numbers. That means my projected Kimbrel rank is about 70, which is almost 10 full spots lower than his current ADP. For that reason I’d say he’s not fully likely to live up to his current ADP, and given how quickly reliable, near-elite starters taper off after the top 15, I’d much rather spend my fifth or sixth round pick (what it would take to get Kimbrel depending on league size) on a starting pitcher or a batter.
But, if he falls into the 70s overall, you’d be wise to capitalize and take a player with Kimbrel’s unique skill set. Remember, the key to being a great fantasy manager is knowing how your league plays, including draft trends. If your league tends to wait on closers because they value them as a resource that only provides significant contributions in one category (saves), then take advantage and draft Kimbrel if he falls past the 70s.
The New England Patriots have made use of this strategy and remained one of the top three to five teams in the NFL for the better part of the last 10-12 years. Billy Beane made a low-budget Oakland team a yearly contender using the same general strategy.
While everyone else is reaching on players that might usually be valued in the 80s or lower, you’re getting a player ranked a little better, and Kimbrel could pay big dividends.
