Yup. I’m tempted to just end this post right here. I won’t, but I will keep it short.
Brett Lawrie reminds me a lot of Ian Kinsler. He has 30-homer power, 30-steal speed and loves to hit fly balls. Thankfully you won’t need to decide between the two as Toronto made Lawrie their full-time third baseman at the time of his call up last season and Lawrie did not disappoint. In just 43 games he hit nine homers, stole seven bases and slashed his way to .293/.373/.580. That’s a small sample size, but those numbers would have ranked sixth, third and first, respectively among the 28 third basemen who recorded 400 or more plate appearances last season.
But you know that results aren’t the measuring stick by which success is judged. It does us no good if Lawrie played like a top-five third baseman last season if his peripherals suggest he won’t do the same next season, but with a 9.4 percent walk rate and an 18.1 percent strikeout rate (numbers in line with his minor league averages) his chances of repeating are good. As I said before, his 171 plate appearances aren’t an error-free total, but his walk and strikeout rates are encouraging.
By comparison, Kinsler has career walk and strikeout rates of 10.2 percent and 12.2 percent respectively. It’s a mystery to me why Kinsler’s career BABIP is just .275 (a semi-mystery because his high fly ball rate generally correlates with a lower BABIP) but my assumption here is that Lawrie won’t struggle to post a more league average .300 BABIP. In fact, last season, Lawrie’s BABIP was .313 with an xBABIP of .302. Given his power/speed combo I’m willing to accept the .270s average that he’ll likely tout by virtue of his moderate strikeout rate and high fly ball rate.
Where does all this rank him among third basemen? You can’t take Lawrie over Jose Bautista or Evan Longoria. But what about over David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre or Aramis Ramirez? If you forced me to decide in the late-second or early-third round to take Wright or Lawrie I’d probably cave and take Wright but after the draft you’d find me curled up in a dimly lit corner somewhere cringing at the thought of owning Wright for another season. With no Jose Reyes and the perennial questions surrounding Wright’s ability to carry the Mets, he’s is a player I’d just as soon avoid. Everything in me wants to take Lawrie third overall at the position. I just can’t take him over Wright in one-year leagues. Keeper leagues? No doubt.
As for Youkilis, Rodriguez and the host of others, I am definitely taking Lawrie over them. They’re all threats to miss a month at a time while giving you just the power and almost zero speed. I don’t really think Lawrie versus any of them is even a question.
So yes, Lawrie is already the next great third baseman.
One 3B that was unmentioned, that I could see remaining above Lawrie in the pecking order, would be Ryan Zimmerman. I think the Rs, HRs and RBIs could be similar, however, I feel like Zimmerman may be able to offset the speed that Lawrie provides, by hitting for a higher average by upwards of .20-.30 points. If Prince signs with Washington, I could absolutely see Zimmerman possibly even overtaking Longoria, as the most sought after fantasy 3B as early as next year. I, myself, am one of the biggest Lawrie backers you’ll find in fantasy circles and I would undoubtedly take him over every 3B you mentioned above. Another 3B that was unmentioned that I would take over Lawrie this year, is Beltre. I believe Beltre, will be in the top 3-5 in the AL in HRs and RBIs this year, if he’s able to remain in the lineup for 150+ games. For keeper leagues though, I would have to say that Lawrie has the most intriguing upside of everyone, including Longo, Beltre and Zimmerman.
Perhaps this is a good time to mention that I’m in the camp of people who value HR/SB players at the expense of batting average (with the exception of Longoria – you could talk me into taking him in the middle of the first round). I actually don’t like Zimmerman much at all. I see him as a .280 hitter with middling homer, run and RBI totals. Even with Fielder in Washington I’d rank him sixth after Bautista, Longoria, Wright, Lawrie and Arod…and probably in that order. Beltre I view the same way but it’s tough to argue with his .300/30/100 production of the last two seasons. I think 3B is deep through the first 7-8 guys before you hit the drop off and I really think guys ranked 3-8 are almost interchangeable (when healthy).
I am also in the camp of people that value HR/SB over BA, simply because I classify HR/SB as ‘super premium’ categories. I do believe however, that a .20-.30 point differential in BA is equal to 10-15 SBs. I believe Zimmerman will have between 3-5 SBs, which is admittedly irrelevant, however, I think Lawrie will steal closer to 20 than 30. So, for the sake of discussion, let’s say 20. Hypothetically, if Zimmerman matches his career track record per 150 games played, his line would be approximately .290/90/25/90/5. First off, I don’t consider 90 runs and 90 RBIs as middling and I think it’s likely that Lawrie, doesn’t quite reach those levels at this stage of his career, based off of 100+ years of baseball history, that has seen a small percentage reach those plateaus. Another thing that works in Zimmerman’s favor at this point, is the fact that he’ll be hitting in the 3 hole, while Lawrie is projected to hit in the 6 hole. That automatically gives Zimmerman the edge, in regards to better opportunities for runs and RBIs. If Prince comes on board, your looking at a possible second half lineup for the Nats, of Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, Fielder, Morse, Espinosa, Ramos, Desmond. I think that lineup far and away trumps the Blue Jays projected lineup of Escobar, Thames, Joey Bats, Lind, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia, K. Johnson. My expectations for Lawrie are roughly a .270/75/25/75/20 type of split line. If my projections hold true, it’s evident that Zimmerman at this stage would be more fantasy beneficial than Lawrie. In regards to keeper league appeal, I do think that Lawrie, given the fact that he’s only 22 years old, is more appealing going forward, but I do believe that Zimmerman will establish himself as a top 3 option positionally once again after a nice, bounce back year in 2012.
Brad, you make an outstanding case for Zimmerman. I plugged your projections for both players above into our PSR formula (our version of the player rater) and it gave Zimmerman a 5.90 and Lawrie a 4.69 so given how you value each player it certainly seems like Zimmerman would be more valuable.
I’ll agree with your Zimmerman projection, however I’ll tweak your Lawrie projection (I’ll preface this by saying I promise I didn’t plug in numbers to see what would make his rating slightly higher…I haven’t even looked at his rating for my projection as of writing this).
Last season Lawrie was on a 90-run and 87-RBI pace (over 150 games) batting from the sixth and seventh holes. I think his average will decline some so I’ll drop those numbers a tad. I’ll also use his xBA from last season as my projection for his batting average (ha I believe wholeheartedly in our xBA equation).
My projection for Lawrie is as follows: .274 AVG, 80 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 25 SB.
That works out to a PSR value of 5.70, or 0.20 less than Zimmerman. Despite that difference I’ll still take Lawrie on potential and skill set alone, but they’re very close, closer in fact than I would have guessed before running the numbers.
This was a really interesting and informative read. I myself would love to have either Zimmerman or Lawrie as early as the 3rd round. And I personally would say that those are 2 of the 2nd tier 3rd baseman…. with Beltre and Wright being the other two. On upside alone, I would have to take Lawrie, but the lineup around him would worry me a little. But there are no other 3rd basemen that you can say offer you 20+ SB potential.
This would be my list (in order) of 3B
1st Tier: Longoria, Bautista
2nd Tier: Lawrie, Beltre, Zimmerman, Wright
3rd Tier: Pablo, Ramirez, ARod, Young, Youkilis
4th Tier: Freese, Prado, R. Roberts, Reynolds, Bonifacio, Moustakas
5th Tier (any order): Chisenhall, Murphy, Headley, Morel, Rolen, C. Jones
On that list alone, it may appear that 3rd base is deep. I wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting anyone after Zimmerman, but I would take guys all the way to umm… Ramirez? That’s a little disturbing.
Hey Matt, thanks for the comment. Unfortunately the formatting of your comment didn’t stick so I rewrote what you meant (hope you don’t mind).
I agree with you not wanting anyone after Ramirez. The list gets risky after that. I wouldn’t mind owning your other Tier 3 3B as well but you’d better have a good backup.
One name you listed that I love is Ryan Roberts. I’d have him at the end of Tier 3. I think he’s totally legit. Nice list, though.
I appreciate you fixing it. You nailed my projections. Sorry if it was confusing. I do have a question for you though if you don’t mind. I am in a 3 keeper league and my no doubt about keepers are Kemp and Tulo. My 3rd keeper is going to be between Longoria and Kershaw. I am definitely leaning towards Longoria, but I truly believe Kershaw will be a top 3 pitcher for years to come (if not #1). I’ve had Longo for a few years now, and he’s come up short of my expectations every year.
I do however think it’s important to lock up the shallow positions. And replacing Longoria will be a much more difficult task than it would be than it would be to replace Kershaw.
My problem is that I honestly believe Kershaw will be higher on the player rater than Longo.
Let’s say for instance Longoria is .280/95/30/110/10 and Kershaw is 230/18/2.50/1.05. What would you say?
If we’re talking an elite hitter vs an elite pitcher, I take the hitter almost every time. Longoria is still very young and he has a lot of potential left in him, so much that I feel your projection of him might even be modest. I think Kershaw will be the best fantasy SP over the next 3-5 years, but pitchers represent more risk in my book as they’re more likely to suffer devastating injuries. I also think that with the vast number of SP, you can find good spot starters throughout the season when you need a boost. Plus, if your offense centers around Kemp, Tulo and Longo, you could draft a SP in the first 2 rounds and still have a dominant offense.