Karl de Vries is a reporter and web producer for The Star-Ledger of Newark, NJ. He’s a lifelong Mets fan and fantasy fanatic who operates RotoDiamond, a fantasy baseball blog. If you’ve never heard of RotoDiamond, I highly suggest adding it to your fantasy repertoire. Due to the high quality of Karl’s work, I’ve asked him to contribute posts to Baseball Professor. It took some begging and pleading (kidding!) but Karl agreed to share his wisdom with us. You can email him at karl.rotodiamond@gmail.com with questions, comments or lewd pictures, though I wouldn’t recommend the latter.
The debate over J.J. Hardy began innocently enough.
Reaching for conversation recently with a fellow owner in my mixed 12-team H2H league, I asked him which four players he was keeping this season.
He rattled off some names, and then told me he was stuck between choosing Matt Garza or Hardy, who he regarded as a high-upside shortstop at a favorable keeper price.
I told him he was crazy. Hardy’s OK, but not great, and Garza, wins aside, turned in an excellent season last year and could very well be traded to a contender this year. But my friend persisted, cited Hardy’s various injuries as an excuse for his down 2009 and 2010 seasons, and ultimately convinced me to give his stats another look.
He’s right about the upside: Hardy blasted 30 home runs and 80 RBIs during a comeback 2011, and placed just outside the top 10 among shortstops on ESPN’s player rater. (In fact, he checked in at 11th on both ESPN’s player rater and Baseball Professor’s PSR Rankings.) But a close examination of some key stats suggests he’s due for a regression this season, which should dilute his home run total and push him back among the good-not-great shortstop class.
Let’s cut right to the chase: Hardy will not — repeat, will not — return to the 15.7 percent HR/FB rate he achieved last year. How do we know this? Because subtracting last season’s stats, Hardy’s put together a much more typical 10.6 percent over his career, perfectly in line with league average.
About those home runs: 25 were slammed against righties, making for a 16.2 AB:HR ratio. That’s fine, except Hardy’s career split pre-2011 was 33.9, providing some room for regression this season.
Where will Hardy hit in the Baltimore lineup this season? He spent the bulk of his ABs as the Orioles’ leadoff man, and considering Brian Roberts‘ magnetic attachment to the disabled list, it’s possible Hardy will spend more time atop the batting order this season.
But let’s be real: a .310 OBP does not a leadoff hitter make, and if, say, Ryan Flaherty (career minor league OBP: .346) inherits the third-base job this season, there’s a chance Hardy could find himself bumped down toward the middle of the order, which could affect the kinds of pitches he sees.
I’m also curious to see if Hardy, looking to replicate his power surge, continues to swing for the fences this season at the expense of the rest of his game. Hardy’s strikeout rate jumped while his walk rate dropped, and at more than 43 percent, he established a new career high for fly balls as a percentage of his batted balls.
I’m not trying to hate. Hardy will almost certainly retain significant value this year, and there aren’t that many shortstops who will provide more than 20 home runs at a weak position — presuming he stays healthy, of course.
But at 29, he’s not suddenly in the process of becoming Ernie Banks, and there’s a real concern that his desire to post big numbers will come at expense of his peripheral stats. If he can be snagged in the early mid rounds, he’s a steal — but one that will hit a maximum 25 home runs against a drooping batting average and propensity to get on base.
