Archive | January, 2012

#14: Where does Freddie Freeman rank among first basemen?

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Here are my top ten first basemen in no particular order: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Michael Morse, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard and Adam Lind.

Where Freddie Freeman belongs is among the next seven with Lance Berkman, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Carlos Lee and Eric Hosmer. In his first full season starting at first base for the Braves, Freeman had a good season batting .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI. Of course, when drafting a first baseman the most important stats are the power numbers, so for his first full season Freeman was fairly average. Not on par with the top guys at the position, but I think he will improve on these numbers for two main reasons.

The first reason is that he will have an MLB season under his belt. One of the biggest obstacles players face after being called up from the minors is being overwhelmed by the big-league game and finding their niche. Freeman struggled right out of the gate but quickly righted the ship and contributed a cool 161 hits and 67 runs in his 571 at-bats in addition to his other numbers. His .795 OPS could’ve been better, and I think it will be in 2012.

The second reason is the Braves’ lineup. In Atlanta, he has Dan Uggla, Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Brian McCann hitting around him. And, if Jason Heyward finally can stay healthy, there’s another productive hitter in the lineup. Bourn is a table-setter at the top of the lineup and if Uggla and McCann can advance the runners into scoring position then Freeman’s RBI chances will greatly increase. Add in an uptick in homers and Freeman could be a big run producer.

While he doesn’t crack the top 10 in first basemen ranks this year, I would definitely take him over the aging stars Lee and Berkman. Freeman just has more upside and I don’t see Berkman reproducing his 2011 numbers again. Freeman could creep into the top ten by the end of 2012, but I don’t think he’s worth taking ahead of guys like Morse, Davis, Hosmer or Konerko.

Konerko seems to produce regardless of age and Davis had a good early run last season before lost due to injury. Even with Reyes’ departure, Davis’ numbers should improve this year and Morse seems like the real deal with eligibility in the outfield to add to his value. However, if you’re not sold on any of those guys you should take a chance on Freeman in the middle rounds (top 120). He has the upside, which makes it easier to draft him.

Even if you draft one of the elite first basemen, Freeman could be a worthy investment as your backup or utility player. This way if both of your first basemen produce, then you have wonderful trade bait. I made the big mistake of missing out on one of the top guys last year and had to patch things together all season with Davis, Hosmer and waiver-wire fodder (Juan Miranda, Jesus Guzman). I wouldn’t pass up on the elite guys this year, but that doesn’t mean to pass on Freeman either.

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Player Profile #99: Buster Posey | C | SFG

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

We all know about the hit that ended Buster Posey‘s 2011 season, but what we don’t know if whether it will have any lingering effects in 2012. Reports of his recovery this offseason have been positive, but there’s not telling how his leg will react to the rigors of a 162-game schedule. This is the risk you take on with Posey because as a hitter you know what you’re getting: a disciplined, .300 hitter who can also hit for pretty good power.  Some people call him Joe Mauer light, but he has a chance to be better if he shows his power is consistent.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and produces similar to 2010 numbers
Similar players: Joe Mauer (MIN), Miguel Montero (ARI), Billy Butler (KC)
Worst case scenario: Isn’t able to make it through whole 2012 season

Strengths

Batting average, plate discipline. At 25, Posey is already a very selective hitter, which will help him keep his batting average up. His 22 percent O-Swing% before he got injured was well below the league average (30.6%).

Weaknesses

Ballpark, injury. We’ve talked about the injury concerns, but he’s also struggled to hit at home (.246 BA, .138 ISO at home) in his young career. Just for comparison, Posey has a .334 BA and .192 ISO on the road.

ADP Report (59.8)

Currently, Posey is going fourth among catchers behind Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli and Brian McCann. That seems about right to me, but what I can’t get on board with is taking him in the sixth round when so many quality bats are still available at other positions. However, there is a huge drop off at catcher with Alex Avila around the 11th round so you will want to make suer you grab your catcher before they are all gone.

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Player Profile #100: Mike Morse | 1B/OF | WAS

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last March I wrote this about Mike Morse: “Assuming 500 at-bats, which I think is reasonable, we could be looking at a 20-homer, 80-RBI season with a good batting average coming from a widely undrafted player.” Morse ended up getting 522 at-bats, put up a “good” .303 average (and a .288 xBA, which is more what I expected) but crushed my power projections. That season was good enough to rank him 51st overall. We’ll see more of the same in 2012. Maybe he won’t bat over .300 again, but 25 homers and 80 RBI are totals you can take to the bank.

Best case scenario: Paul Konerko (CHW)
Similar players: Lance Berkman (STL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Torii Hunter (LAA)

Strengths

HR, RBI, BA, balance, HR on the road. The homers, RBI and average should all be pretty close to last season, but what I really like about Morse is the balance he showed last season. No matter what split you look at (vs. LHP/RHP, first half/second half, home/road), Morse put almost exactly equal numbers with one exception: power on the road. His home park in Washington is exactly league average for homers to right-handed batters, but Morse hit 20 of his 31 homers away from home. For what it’s worth, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a good home run park for righties, but Turner Field in Atlanta and Sun Life Stadium in Florida are a little below average, and Citi Field (was) definitely below average. Things will get interesting this season, though as Citi Field brings in its fences and the Marlins move to a new park.

Weaknesses

SB. I don’t see another real weakness in Morse’s game. We expected him to break out, he did and now he’ll probably hit like 2011 all over again. Will he repeat 30 homers and 90 RBI? We’ll see, but like I said in the intro, 25 and 80 are definitely safe bets.

ADP Report (79.9)

Had Morse batted .288 last year instead of .303 (but kept everything else the same), he would have ranked 81st overall instead of 51st. If we adjust his run and RBI totals to account for the hypothetical .288 average, Morse would have scored 70 runs and driven in 86. That 70/.288/31/86/2 line would have ranked him 88th overall. I tell you that just to give you some perspective. In my opinion this ADP is a little high for Morse as the likely drop in batting average will adversely affect most of his other numbers, but if you want to draft him in the 85-100 range that seems OK to me.

 

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Player Profile #101: Jordan Zimmermann | SP | WAS

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

If Jordan Zimmermann can put together a full, 200-inning season, he’ll be a fantasy force to be reckoned with. His walk rate went from very good to pretty much elite last season, and there’s definitely room for growth with his strikeout rate. In fact, if Zimmermann made the standard 33 starts last season instead of just 26, his PSR would have risen from 0.79 to 2.47, which would have ranked him 141st overall. The Nationals appear to be a team on the rise, so wins shouldn’t be as scarce in Washington as they have been in recent seasons. With a little more durability and another strikeout per nine innings, Zimmermann will thrust himself inside the top 100.

Best case scenario: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
Similar players: Shaun Marcum (MIL), Doug Fister (DET), Chris Carpenter (STL)
Worst case scenario: Tim Stauffer (SD)

Strengths

ERA, WHIP, control. A 3.18 ERA and 3.16 FIP tell us Zimmermann is a damn good pitcher, and if he’s able to come close to his 1.73 BB/9 last season then he’ll be among the league’s best in terms of WHIP as well. If he can become above average in either wins or strikeouts, he’ll be a legit fantasy number two starter.

Weaknesses

Durability. I won’t label Zimmermann’s win or strikeout potential as weaknesses because both of those stand to improve this season, we just don’t know how much yet. His durability is a concern, though. He’s already had Tommy John surgery in his career (2009) and last season they looked to cap his innings in is first full season back. How many innings will he throw this year?

ADP Report (120.6)

Zimmermann is currently getting drafted after starters like Josh Johnson (106), Brandon Beachy (118), Johnny Cueto (121), Matt Garza (126), Gio Gonzalez (132) and Matt Moore (168), who we all have ranked behind Zimmermann (that’s our rank in parentheses by the way). That makes J-Zimm a good value here.

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Player Profile #102: Ryan Howard | 1B | PHI

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Phillies manager Charlie Manual has pretty much conceded that Ryan Howard will miss the start of the season. Assuming everything goes smoothly with his rehab, a big assumption for a big man recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon, Howard should be ready by sometime in late April or early May. Once he does get back, we’ll likely see the same thing we’ve come to see from Howard in recent seasons: home runs, RBIs and strikeouts.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Adam Lind (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Nick Swisher (NYY)
Worst case scenario: Injury costs him more time than we expect

Strengths

Power, ballpark, second half. Howard’s home/road splits for his career aren’t very pronounced, so one would seem to think his home ballpark doesn’t represent a huge advantage. That may be true, but Citizen Bank Park’s home run park factor for left-handed batters is 120. I consider that a strength. Howard has driven in over 100 runs in every full season he’s played, though it appears his days of 40 homers and 140 RBI (or nearly an RBI per game) are behind him. Still, he’s one of the game’s elite power bats. And, for whatever reason, Howard thrives as the season wears on. For his career he’s a .290 hitter in the second half and averages a homer every 12 at-bats. His career first-half average is just .262 and he averages a homer almost every 15 at-bats. His September numbers (career .306 and a homer every 11.5 at-bats) are even better.

Weaknesses

Durability, average. Batting average will always be a concern, but now we can add durability, and subsequently playing time, into the mix. Between Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr., the Phillies have plenty of big-time bats. Mayberry will start the season at first base while Howard heals, and if he plays well he could provide a good option for the team to keep Howard fresh as the season wears on.

ADP Report (144.1)

Let’s take Howard’s numbers from last season and project them over a shortened, 120-game season, a likely total for Howard this year: 62 runs, .253 average, 26 homers, 92 RBI and one stolen base for good measure. That line would work out to a PSR of 1.93, which would have ranked 156th overall last season. By that logic this ADP is about right, but we at Baseball Professor are head-to-head players first and in head-to-head leagues, Howard’s missed games in April/May and his late-season production make him a great sleeper candidate for championship teams in September.

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Player Profile #103: Cameron Maybin | OF | SD

By on January 30, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Cameron Maybin is in the class of players with significant deficiencies who do one thing well enough to rank rather well. In Maybin’s case, it’s the steals. There are some concerns surrounding his ability to replicate his 40 steals, namely that his previous career-best at any level was 30 in his 2008 season split between the majors and minors. Maybin can score runs and has a little pop, but San Diego’s ballpark and lineup will suppress both of those. Cross your fingers for Maybin owners that 2012 goes something like 2011.

Best case scenario: B.J. Upton (TB) but with a little less pop
Similar players: Emilio Bonifacio (MIA), Angel Pagan (SF), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) with a .250 average
Worst case scenario: Loses his starting job and is reduced to being a pinch runner

Strengths

Speed, vs. LHP. The speed we’ve already covered. Maybin doesn’t have a ton of major league experience, but he did bat .296 versus left-handed pitchers last season.

Weaknesses

RBI, park/lineup, reliability. The park and lineup have already been recounted so I won’t cover that again. Maybin did tally just 40 RBI last season, but he did that batting all over the San Diego lineup. This season he’s currently slated to bat third. Will that continue, and, even if it does, can Maybin actually be a good bat for the middle of the Padres’ order?

ADP Report (101.5)

Maybin ranked 82nd last season and should drive in more runs by virtue of his lineup slot, but you should know there’s an inherent amount of risk selecting Maybin anywhere in the 90-110 range. There are safer options available, but if he gets regular playing time (which he should, barring injury) and he still runs like last season, this is where he’ll likely end up ranking.

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Player Profile #104: Howie Kendrick | 1B/2B/OF | LAA

By on January 30, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

I just got through telling you about how I think Chris Young should be a top-100 player but George, my co-contributor, doesn’t value him as highly. The inverse is true for Howie Kendrick. Who knows which of us is right, but either way they’re definitely two of the most polarizing players in fantasy. Kendrick will give you a good average, some useful stolen base totals and a good amount of runs, but his power output will either make or break his draft value. Can he reproduce the 18 homers he had last year or is it back to the days or 10? We’ll soon find out.

Best case scenario: Brandon Phillips (CIN)
Similar players: Dustin Ackley (SEA), Derek Jeter (NYY), Nick Markakis (BAL)
Worst case scenario: A repeat of his injury-shortened 2009.

Strengths

Balance, streakiness. Kendrick does a little bit of everything. That can be extremely useful in the early-to-mid rounds of the draft as you can get some great values later on by taking one- or two-category specialists. Players like Kendrick allow you to do that. Last season he hit six homers in April, six homers in August and four homers in September. In the other three months he totaled just two. Catch him during a hot streak and you’re golden.

Weaknesses

FB%, streakiness, injuries. Of course, catch him during a cold streak and you’re screwed. Will those trends continue? It’s impossible to know, although there are definitely some players (Brennan Boesch comes to mind) who are consistently inconsistent. Yes, that makes sense. I have a hard time imagining him repeating the 18 homers if he can’t get his fly ball rate up. A HR/FB rate of 16.5 will be hard to reproduce.

ADP Report (104.2)

We nailed this ADP with our pre-draft rankings. That’s a pretty good sign that Kendrick is right at home with this ADP. If you were to average his end-of-season ranks in 2010 and 2011, you’d get an average rank of 107. That’s good enough for me.

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