Archive | 2012

Re-ranking the Second Base Position

I’ve already re-ranked the catchers and first basemen to reflect the first month and a half of baseball action and today we keep going around the diamond with the second basemen.

Tier One
Dustin Pedroia
Robinson Cano
Ian Kinsler

It’s baseball’s version of the big three and no other player has earned his spot up here…yet. Ian Kinsler might be the best of the bunch fantasy-wise thanks to his 30/30 potential, but you just can’t ignore that injury history.

Tier Two
Dan Uggla
Jason Kipnis
Allen Craig
Michael Young
Ben Zobrist
Brandon Phillips

Dan Uggla brings a unique skill to the position and that alone sets him apart from the rest of the crowd. … However, Jason Kipnis has shown exactly why I was so bullish on him in the preseason. He could easily be a 20/20 player and with a decent batting average could approach Dustin Pedroia level if the Indians offense doesn’t suck all year. … I love Allen Craig, who with regular playing time could be a .280-25-80 player. He might not qualify at second base in every league though as he only started eight games at second base last year and zero this year.

Tier Three
Kelly Johnson
Howard Kendrick
Michael Cuddyer
Dustin Ackley
Rickie Weeks
Neil Walker

Kelly Johnson will hit 25 home runs and steal 10+ bases, but he won’t get no respect. Batting average is the most overrated fantasy category in my opinion and I choose to ignore it in most of my leagues. Or you could be “cool” and “hip” and play in an OBP league. In that type of league, Johnson is easily a tier two player. … After a slow start, Dustin Ackley has hit safely in 12 straight games going 15-for-45 (.333) with 10 runs, two homers and a steal. … I think Neil Walker is a better hitter than he’s letting on. He’s hitting the ball with more authority yet his BABIP and power are down from last year. Something’s going to change.

Tier Four
Jose Altuve
Daniel Murphy
Danny Espinosa
Jemile Weeks
Omar Infante
Marco Scutaro
Ryan Roberts
Aaron Hill

Mike Aviles

Jose Altuve has been a nice surprise, but let’s remember that he plays for the Astros and that offense is not very good. … I’m growing more and more convinced that Danny Espinosa doesn’t really know what hitting a baseball feels like. … There was a lot of hype surrounding Mike Aviles back in April, but now he’s sitting at a .266/.299/.450 slash. He got off to a hot start, especially in the power department, but it’s not going to continue at all.

Tier Five
Chase Utley
Darwin Barney
Eduardo Nunez
Sean Rodriguez
Maicer Izturis
Gordon Beckham

Chase Utley is just a big name attached to a worthless baseball player’s body at this point. If you take his numbers last year and extrapolate them over 600 at-bats you get a .259-16-66, but now he has a worse offense around him and another year of knee problems.

Potential Call-ups
Jedd Gyorko (SD)

Jedd Gyorko is really the only minor leaguer ready to take the next step to the big leagues. With the Padres settling at the bottom of the standings they will be releasing Orlando Hudson soon and Gyorko (.262-6-17 in Double-A) will get his shot.

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Re-ranking the First Base Position

If you missed the catcher rankings make sure you check them out. Today we take a look at how the first basemen rankings have sorted themselves out in the first month and a half of the season.

Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Paul Konerko
Albert Pujols

The biggest surprise of the season has to be the demise of “The Machine.” Jeff Zimmermann over at FanGraphs wrote about what you should do with Pujols and it’s really a case-by-case basis. One thing I can say, he’s been the biggest disappointment, not only this year, but in the last decade.

Tier Two
Mark Teixeira
Eric Hosmer
Carlos Santana

Mike Napoli

Teixeira is doing his best to confirm everyone’s suspicions from that he is in the twilight of this career. What’s troubling this year is that he’s hitting more ground balls  (44.7%) than ever before. I’m remaining patient with Hosmer, but I don’t like how he’s being moved all over the lineup and hopefully he can get things going soon.

Tier Three
Billy Butler
Michael Young
Michael Cuddyer
Edwin Encarnacion
Freddie Freeman
Lance Berkman
Adam Dunn

Encarnacion has been a huge surprise early this season, but he’s always been able to hit. His defense and health have always gotten in the way so the power is legit. Dunn has rebounded as many predicted in the preseason, but he’s not going to help much in runs, average, steals or, with that putrid lineup, RBI. He’s back, but that doesn’t make him a must-own player.

Tier Four
Mike Morse
Bryan LaHair
Kendrys Morales
Ike Davis
Mark Trumbo
Carlos Pena
Carlos Lee

I expect big time regression for LaHair as his .444 BABIP is bound to come back down to earth. Despite the frequent off days, Morales has been a pleasant surprise, but don’t sleep on his teammate Trumbo either. If he can find himself some consistent at-bats, Trumbo should be a great source of power.

Tier Five
Lucas Duda
Chris Davis
Gaby Sanchez
Ryan Howard
Adam LaRoche
Paul Goldschmidt
Mark Reynolds
Justin Morneau
Todd Helton
Daniel Murphy
Mitch Moreland

This tier is full of big-time power potential in Davis, Howard, Goldschmidt and Reynolds, but it’s Duda who I like the best of the bunch. He’s a player who I thought would benefit from the walls coming in at Citi Field, but we’ve yet to see those results come to fruition.

Potential Call-ups
Matt LaPorta (CLE)
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
David Cooper (TOR)

LaPorta is absolutely mashing it in Triple-A (.336, 9 HR, 21 RBI) and the Indians can only go with Casey Kotchman for so long until they realize that he can’t hit a baseball. Rizzo will be in the minors so long as LaHair continues to hit and Theo Epstein has claimed that he’s going to be patient with his future stud first baseman.

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Week 7 MLB Power Rankings

Note: All stats and records through Sunday, May 13.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (23-11, Last Wk: 2)

The Dodgers were 5-1 last week including wins in their last four contests. Ted Lilly registered two wins and Clayton Kershaw (loss), Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang (both got wins) pitched well for the team with the team with the best mark in the MLB. The Giants couldn’t score (only mustered 2 runs twice) and the Rockies scored five runs in an 11-5 loss. Lilly and Capuano both have five wins, so the offense is producing regardless of the starter. As long as Matt Kemp doesn’t hit the DL (he has since), then the team should continue its strong, balanced early-season play.

2. Texas Rangers (23-12, Last Wk: 4)

The Rangers’ 5-2 mark last week included taking three of four from the Orioles and two of three from the Angels. We know the offense can put up runs regardless of who’s on the mound, but the pitching would have to be consistent in order for Texas to make a third-straight World Series appearance. The starters have a 3.79 ERA, led by Yu Darvish (2.84). He does lead Texas in strikeouts, but he’s given up 24 walks and 39 hits for a 1.42 WHIP. That will go down once he’s adjusted to the MLB, but hitters will also have a chance to adjust to Yu.

3. Atlanta Braves (22-13, Last Wk: 6)

The Braves scored four runs in three games against the Cubs, but then put up nine, seven and seven respectively in a three-game sweep in St. Louis. That’s the kind of pressure Atlanta will have to endure if they (and I) think they can go deep in the postseason. Brandon Beachy has been amazing, leading Atlanta’s starters in ERA (1.60), WHIP (0.96) and BAA (.181). Michael Bourn feasted on the Cardinals, collecting eight hits, three runs and three RBIs in the three-game sweep. That’s the kind of balance that a team needs to be a threat every night.

4. Baltimore Orioles (22-13, Last Wk: 1)

A 3-4 week knocked Baltimore out of the top spot, but giving up more than 10 runs in back-to-back games against Texas won’t help your stats. Jake Arrieta gave up 13 ER in his two starts and saw his ERA balloon from 3.52 to 5.21. Despite the sub .500 record last week, Adam Jones continues to produce like one of the best young outfielders in the league, leading Baltimore in HR, RBI and BA. If he and Matt Wieters can continue to provide a solid 1-2 punch, then Baltimore will be in it all season.

5. Washington Nationals (21-13, Last Wk: 5)

Henry Rodriguez got two saves last week, but he also blew one, getting the loss in a 9-6 decision to the Reds. The pitching staff still leads the MLB in ERA, WHIP, BAA, strikeouts and fewest HR allowed. Offensively, it’s the Adam LaRoche show, as he leads Washington in HR, RBI (25) and BA, and he’s the only starter with over 15 RBIs. While he’s unlikely to keep this level of play up, we might as well ride it until it fades away. Some help will be coming soon as Michael Morse is slated to come off the DL in early June. If he can provide some extra protection for LaRoche and vice versa, then he might not fade away.

6. Tampa Bay Rays (21-14, Last Wk: 3)

The Rays went 2-4 last week against their main competition (thus far) in the AL East, the Yankees and Orioles. Matt Moore hasn’t lived up to the hype yet, but maybe pundits were premature with expectations after the guy barely notched two big-league starts last year. His ERA is over five and his WHIP is 1.67. He’s not the only one who’s faltered as David Price and James Shields both lost 5-3 last week. Fernando Rodney continues to defy my thoughts, registering 10 saves on the young season. He has been an excellent fill-in for the injured Kyle Farnsworth, posting a 0.54 ERA. I still think he’ll implode at some point, so maybe he’s not getting any respect like another famous Rodney, the late, great Mr. Dangerfield.

7. New York Yankees (19-15, Last Wk: 8 )

Andy Pettitte returned to the Bronx Bombers, losing 6-2 after giving up four ER and two homers to the Mariners on Sunday. It was his first start in a long time so we can cut him some slack. As expected, CC Sabathia leads starters with more than two starts in ERA, WHIP, Ks and BAA. He’s pitching like the ace he is, and he’d be getting blasted like a Kardashian divorce if he wasn’t. Another old-timer who continues to defy age is future Hall-of-Famer Derek Jeter, who leads the bigs with 55 hits and is second in the AL in batting. His success might curtail going forward, but he is Jeter, so if anyone can defy the odds, it’s him.

8. St. Louis Cardinals (20-14, Last Wk: 7)

St. Louis had a mixed bag last week, sweeping the Diamondbacks before getting swept themselves by the Braves. Lance Lynn finally lost after winning six games early one, and Adam Wainwright struggled to string together two good starts in a row. He beat Houston 8-1 but then failed to go five innings, giving up five ER and five BBs in losing to the Braves. On the plus side, however, Allen Craig has been tearing the cover off the ball and Carlos Beltran looks like the player everyone coveted five years ago. He has 13 HR and 32 RBIs and is hitting .295. Lance Berkman returns from the DL, so if he can provide ample protection, Beltran might be an early-season MVP candidate.

9. New York Mets (19-15, Last Wk: 11)

Tim Byrdak got two wins and Frank Francisco recorded two saves. On the other hand, if the bullpen is getting wins, that means the starters aren’t. R.A. Dickey was the only starter to get a win last week. David Wright has been on fire as of late, so he just needs to stay healthy in order to give the Mets a chance at October. Ike Davis isn’t helping the cause, however, striking out 36 times while batting a robust .168. Someone other than Wright has to step out because although he’s carried the offense early on, someone else has to show the power to support Wright and the Mets.

10. Toronto Blue Jays (19-16, Last Wk: 10)

Losing two of three to the Twins, the worst team in baseball, is just embarrassing, especially considering Toronto put up only 11 runs against the squad with the worst team ERA in the MLB. Those are the kind of series the Blue Jays need if we are to take them seriously. Rookie Henderson Alvarez has pitched well early on, but he’s only struck out 14 and walked 13 batters. He’s still young, so he has much room to improve. No offensive starter is batting over .300 and Joey Bats is still hitting under .200. The AL East is going to be a dogfight all season, so Toronto has to get an advantage against teams it should beat.

11. Cleveland Indians (18-16, Last Wk: 9)

The Indians lost three of four to Boston, including the final three games of the series. Cleveland was 3-5 last week, and gave up 22 runs in the three losses to Boston. Despite that, they still sit atop the AL Central, but Detroit is close by. The pitching staff has the fourth-worst team ERA in the A.L at 4.35, so until that is rectified, the Indians aren’t going anywhere. Johnny Damon returned to action last week, so he can add some pop to the offense. He better do it soon, however, before Detroit takes over.

12. Miami Marlins (18-16, Last Wk: 17)

Miami keeps moving up the rankings, going 4-2 last week. Carlos Zambrano shut out the Astros and Heath Bell actually was helpful in fantasy baseball, getting two wins last week. If you haven’t dumped him, consider yourself lucky for the two wins. Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are slowly improving their batting averages, so once this team is hitting on all cylinders, the majors will have to take notice. Much like the Miami Heat and Philadelphia Eagles, it will take a little while for the off-season winners to match that success in the actual season.

13. Detroit Tigers (17-17, Last Wk: 12)

Much like a team around .500 does, Detroit went 3-4 last week, rotating wins and losses every day until losing two in a row to Oakland. Justin Verlander did get two of the wins, and Doug Fister returned from the DL If he can solidify himself as the No. 2 starter, then the Tigers’ chances of success increase greatly. Just like the Rangers, the offense will be there, as any team with Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera should be. Austin Jackson has a better OPS (.902) than Cabrera (.847), so his adjustments at the plate have curtailed his strikeouts. If he continues to get on base, Cabrera and Fielder should have monster months in the immediate future.

14. Cincinnati Reds (17-16, Last Wk: 13)

It’s hard to decipher which team is the second-best in the NL Central, but thus far, it’s the Reds. They only were 3-3 last week, but Joey Votto raised his average from the .290s to .319 in just that week alone. I guess going 4-for-5 with three homers and six RBIs will do that. The Reds just need someone to emerge behind Johnny Cueto, and thus far it’s been Bronson Arroyo, striking out 33 while only issuing five walks on the season. He has given up 53 hits, however, thus the 1.31 WHIP. The Red will be in it thanks to the offense, but offense can only carry you so far.

15. Oakland Athletics (18-17, Last Wk: 18)

Like the Marlins, Oakland continues to move up in the rankings. Josh Reddick leads the team in average (.289), hits, runs and homers (9) and trails Yoenis Cespedes in RBIs (21-20). I’ll admit it — I thought that Oakland would be devoid of fantasy offense. I guess we’re all wrong some times. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone (5 wins on the year) have been pleasant surprises, as Parker sports a 2.10 ERA while Milone has a 1.08 WHIP. Neither strikes out a ton of batters, so that is an area that could help Oakland out greatly.

16. San Francisco Giants (17-17, Last Wk: 15)

Winners of two-straight, Barry Zito and Matt Cain saved the Giants from what could have been a really ugly week. Before they both got wins, San Francisco was 1-3 and headed for disaster. Tim Lincecum lost again and Zito pitched poorly in a 9-1 loss to the rival Dodgers. The Giants are tied for fifth-worst in runs scored on the season, so the pitchers haven’t had the luxury of overcoming poor starts thanks to a potent offense. The Giants will struggle all year until they consistently put up runs for the starters and get the ball to closer Santiago Casilla.

17. Pittsburgh Pirates (16-18, Last Wk: 23)

Even though the Pirates have scored the fewest runs in the MLB (100), they are still hovering around .500. That’s mainly because the pitching staff has the second-best ERA (3.12) and has given up the second-fewest earned runs (107) in the league. Pittsburgh has been in almost every game, only losing by more than one run once last week (4-2). If they can at least stay close to teams, they have a chance, as long as the starters can get the ball to Joel Hanrahan and the bullpen.

18. Chicago White Sox (16-19, Last Wk: 20)

Even though I’m waiting for the White Sox to implode, they went 3-4 last week and got solid outings from Jake Peavy and Gavin Floyd. Peavy is pitching at a Cy Young rate, posting an ERA of 1.89, a 0.80 WHIP and a .189 BAA with 44 strikeouts and only seven walks. He might be the guy he was back with San Diego. Floyd hasn’t been much worse, matching Peavy in BAA and posting a solid WHIP (0.95) and ERA (2.53) of his own. And despite my doubt, Adam Dunn has already surpassed his 2011 HR total of 11. Fear not, true believers-he’s fanned 53 times.

19. Philadelphia Phillies (16-19, Last Wk: 14)

As much as people want to chastise Cole Hamels for admitting to throw at Bryce Harper, I’d rather him admit it than lie to our faces. With that being said, Philly is in the NL basement thanks to a sweep at the hand of the Mets. This team needs Chase Utley and Ryan Howard bad. Carlos Ruiz and Hunter Pence have managed to hold the fort while the aforementioned are out, but Roy Halladay can only overcome so many one-run loss like he did last week, losing 2-1.

20. Houston Astros (15-19, Last Wk: 19)

Bud Norris has strung together two quality starts and it is past time of grabbing him (again maybe) from the waiver wire/free agent pool. He might not have a sexy ERA, but he’s lowered his mark from 5.46 to 3.95 in those two starts. One problem Houston will face is getting power from its hitters-Jed Lowrie is tied with Chris Johnson for the team lead in HR (4). That’s not good for a young team looking to find an identity in the NL Central.

21. Milwaukee Brewers (15-19, Last Wk: 21)

The Brewers are a team that I thought would still challenge the Cardinals for the division, but the pitching has let them down. Yovani Gallardo is up and down and John Axford got a loss last week. If the Brewers are to be in the race all year, then the pitching must supplement the offense. Ryan Braun will do his normal thing, so until any consistency is matched on the mound, it will be a long year post-Fielder.

22. Boston Red Sox (15-19, Last Wk: 26)

The BoSox won three in a row to end last week, going 4-3 on the week. Felix Doubront got two wins and he has been the starter closest to anything resembling consistency for Boston. Clay Buchholz got a win and Daniel Bard went 1-1 on the week. Josh Beckett looked like he belonged on the farm with all the chicken that he ate last year, giving up seven hits, seven earned runs and two HR last week in an 8-3 loss to the Indians. He might be wearing different colors come late July, if Boston can find a team willing to take on his salary. The offense is like the Rangers-it will be there, but the pitching must match it for any continued success in Boston.

23. Seattle Mariners (16-20, Last Wk: 25)

The Mariners took two of three from the Tigers but then lost two of three to the Yanks last week. Jason Vargas got a 2-1 win, but he’s always been the type of hurler who has inconsistent success. If Felix Hernandez cannot get any help, things will continue to get worse in Seattle. The Mariners have the second-worst team batting average in the MLB, so any thought of run support for Hernandez is probably a pipe dream. The offense is still finding its mark with new parts (Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager) and new places in the lineup (Ichiro hitting third).

24. Arizona Diamondbacks (15-20, Last Wk: 16)

I guess Arizona forgot that they won the NL West last year. Arizona was an atrocious 1-5 last week and had lost five in a row between the last two weeks. Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill all have WHIPs just under 1.30 so that’s just a part of the problem. The offense still leads the majors in Ks, so that doesn’t help, and the team leader in RBIs at 17 is Miguel Montero. I didn’t think it was that big a loss, but this team really seems to need Chris Young back. He might not bat for the highest average, but he puts the ball in play.

25. Los Angeles Angels (15-20, Last Wk: 24)

Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver all lost, although Weaver did go 1-1 last week. If those three are getting rocked, things will continue to be ugly for the Halos. Chris Iannetta and Torii Hunter are on the DL and Albert Pujols hasn’t crossed the .200 mark in batting. Mark Trumbo continues to lead the team in most offensive categories, and he’s “only” fanned 23 times. He’ll probably be shuffled all over the field and in the lineup, but as long as his bat is in the order, he’ll produce. Couple that in with when Pujols gets out of his funk and Trumbo will have an even greater impact.

26. Chicago Cubs (14-20, Last Wk: 27)

Paul Maholm outdueled Tim Hudson and the Braves for a 1-0 win? They say even a broken clock is right twice a day, so good for Maholm. Bryan LaHair hasn’t cooled off yet, leading the team in HR (9) and average (.356), so good for LaHair. And on a team with Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija leads the team in Ks (45) and IP (43.2). Good for him too. A lot of promising pieces are evident in Chicago, so at least new GM Theo Epstein appears to have a plan.

27. Colorado Rockies (13-20, Last Wk: 22)

The Rockies lost three in a row and lost five in a row in the last two weeks, compiling a 1-5 mark last week. They must be trying to match Arizona, but not in a good way. Juan Nicasio has the “best” ERA of the starters at 4.65. The team has the second-worst ERA in the league at 5.06. This team doesn’t have much of a shot at the postseason, but as long as they host teams in the thin Denver air, they will be a tough out.

28. Kansas City Royals (13-20, Last Wk: 28)

Luke Hochevar and Luis Mendoza pitched well in the final two games last week, leading the Royals to a 4-2 week. Much like the Rockies, the pitching isn’t helping out too much, posting a 4.48 team ERA. Alex Gordon is up to .256, so hopefully for him and owners, his sophomore slump is over. The problem hasn’t been the offense putting up runs, but the offense consistently putting up runs in turn with the pitching. Much like the Cubs, the pieces are there, but it’s going to be a while (and maybe some more losses via trade) before the Royals are a factor.

29. San Diego Padres (12-23, Last Wk: 29)

Jeff Suppan and Edinson Volquez both gave up only one run in wins last week. Even with Yonder Alonso’s surge to hit .300, the team is still batting only .222, the second-worst mark in the MLB. Not surprisingly, the Pads have also only put up the second-fewest runs in the league. Much like the next team, it’s going to be a looong year.

30. Minnesota Twins (10-24, Last Wk: 30)

The Twins have scored the third-fewest runs in the MLB and are owners of the worst team ERA at 5.29. And with that, the formula for last place in the rankings is completed. Despite the formula for underachieving, Minnesota got almost a third of its wins (went 3-4 last week) in one week. If you are looking for fantasy help, don’t look in the Twin Cities. None of the pitchers are worth owning and the one helpful player, Josh Willingham, has cooled off already. He’s not worth the headache of his inconsistent play.

 

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Re-ranking the Catcher Position

We are that point of the season when enough games have been played and you can really start evaluating your team’s performance. Over this week I am going to be re-ranking the positions in tiers to reflect the month and a half of the season.

Tier One
Carlos Santana
Matt Wieters
Mike Napoli
Brian McCann
Buster Posey

Wieters has certainly been the best of this group and it seems like he’s finally realizing his full potential. His ISO has been steadily trending up in his career so I think this power is here to stay. McCann is off to a slow start, but he should rebound nicely and end the season with his usual .270-23-80 line. The only reason Posey isn’t higher than McCann is because of his surrounding offense.

Tier Two
Joe Mauer
Jesus Montero
Miguel Montero
Yadier Molina
Alex Avila

Mauer is just a big name at this point and can’t hang with the likes of the top tier. He’s great with average and OBP, but he has close to no power in his game and a very spotty injury history. Of all the guys in this tier, Jesus Montero has the best chance to climb into the top tier. He got his batting average up to .290 before a short slump brought it back down to .262, but he can definitely hit major league pitching.

Tier Three
Carlos Ruiz
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
A.J. Pierzynski
Jonathan Lucroy

J.P. Arencibia
Ryan Doumit
Russell Martin
Kurt Suzuki
Ramon Hernandez

Ruiz has been the best catcher in fantasy so far, but I don’t expect that to keep up for the whole year. This group is very run-of-the-mill and while Saltalamacchia might reach 20 home runs, but he won’t hit north of .250 and doesn’t get on base much. That sounds a lot like Arencibia, except replace .250 with .220.

Potential call-ups
Ryan Lavarnway
Travis d’Arnaud

I don’t see how Lavarnway gets called up unless there’s an injury to David Ortiz or Saltalamacchia, but he did get some MLB time last year so there’s always the possibility. I don’t see the Blue Jays putting up with Arecibia’s .200 batting average all season and d’Arnaud could get the call if they want to get him some MLB experience.

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Daily Dozen: Lewis Throws BP for O’s

Every morning we recap the previous night’s games, news and notes so that you’re up-to-date on everything baseball. As always you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) and like us on Facebook to get updated, fantasy-relevant news, tidbits and analysis.

1. It was an unusual outing for Colby Lewis yesterday as he allowed just six baserunners in seven innings and struck out 12 while walking one. However, all six baserunners scored because his five hits were all home runs. Let’s chalk this one up as an odd outing and keep Lewis on your roster. I love how he’s improved his control (1.17 BB/9) this year.

2. I’ve talked about my worries for the Red Sox in a couple of the Daily Dozen’s this year. I just can’t help it with them being my home team. Josh Beckett (2.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 K/2 BB) just seems disconnected from the Boston fans, media and the game. You shouldn’t drop Beckett from your rosters so you can only stash him and hope that he’s had some sort of wake up call to turn around his season.

3. It’s been a season of droughts for Albert Pujols. First it was the lack of home runs and now it’s that he hasn’t drawn a walk since April 25. How can the most feared hitter in the last decade not be walked for over two weeks? This is not the same Pujols at the plate and he might not get things straightened out until he has some time to relax over the All-Star break.

4. Dee Gordon is lucky that the Dodgers don’t really have anyone to replace him because he is just horrible at the plate and on the field this year. His slash line of .227/.268/.294 is very undrewhelming and he already has nine errors. What’s even more amazing is that the Dodgers are winning with him in the leadoff spot. I don’t know what it takes to get you demoted from the top spot in the lineup, but I assume a .268 OBP is a good start.

5. Tigers OF Andy Dirks is on fire right now (4-for-4, 2 R, HR, RBI) with five straight multihit games. Over that stretch he’s 12-for-21 (.571) with five runs, two home runs, three doubles and six RBI. He has definitely replaced Brennan Boesch at the top of the lineup for the time being.

6. It looks like Ryan Roberts is going to get another crack at full playing time. He’s coming off one of his best games this season and it seems like he has a clear head after struggling through most of April. If you lost Pablo Sandoval or Evan Longoria and have been streaming third basemen, Roberts is worth a pick up to see if he can return to that 20/20 player we all fell in love with last year.

7. There were three saves in the league last night and wouldn’t you know it, one of them struck up some more controversy. Rafael Soriano got the save for the Yankees because David Robertson was unavailable due to throwing 44 pitches the night before. Does this mean Soriano is the new closer? No, but it puts a lot more pressure on Robertson to convert his next chance because two blown saves might just be enough to give him the boot.

8. Stephen Strasburg was firing on all cylinders last night (6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 13 K/3 BB). He’s been dominant all year and it raises the question on how you should manage him in a one-year league. I’ll try to keep it brief. In head-to-head leagues you should trade him very soon. We all know about the 160-inning cap that has been put on him and that’s going to kill you in the fantasy playoffs. It’s best to cut bait now and maximize on that value because your fellow owners all know why you’ll be selling in July/August. In roto leagues I think it’s well-worth it to keep him because unlike in head-to-head, September stats counts just as much as April stats in roto. If Strasburg gets shut down you can just cut bait and roll with another pitcher.

9. Although it’s mostly been against sub-par offenses (BAL, SEA, LAA, MIN), Henderson Alvarez has been pitching well as of late. Last night he shut down the lowly Twins (7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 K/3 BB), but his strike outs have been a huge problem for him this year. In 48.1 innings, Alvarez has struck out just 14 batters (2.61 K/9). I tend to value low-K pitchers as long as they have great control (which he does), but even I have my limits on how few strikeouts a pitcher can have.

10. It looks like Brett Gardner is going to be out longer than expected, which means more playing time for the speedy Eduardo Nunez (2-for-2, R, 2 SB). Nunez already has six steals in 51 at-bats this season and will continue to rack them up as long as he gets regular playing time.

11. With Lance Berkman about ready to return, Allen Craig will stop platooning at first base and will split time in the outfield and second base. He’s started seven games at first so depending on the site you use for fantasy you are either very happy or extremely frustrated. Craig will continue to get at-bats either in the outfield or at second base.

12. This was a throwaway game for Bartolo Colon (2.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 K/0 BB) as he hasn’t beat Tigers since 2003, however, it looks like Max Scherzer (6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 9 K/2 BB) has fixed whatever mechanical issue was hindering him earlier in the season.

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The 2012 MLB “All-Surprise” Team

We are around 30 games into the season and it’s time to look at some of the surprises in fantasy baseball. A surprise can be either good (Brandon Morrow) or bad (the Red Sox) so here’s my look at the 2012 All-Surprise Team!

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies

Currently Ruiz ranks tied for second in home runs (5), second in RBI (9), first in batting average (.319) and seventh in runs (13). He’s spent most of his time batting near the bottom of the 19th-ranked offense so those numbers are actually even more impressive than they seem.

First Base: Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels

If you thought that Pujols would have a considerably worse OPS (.521) than Jamey Carrol (.576) on May 10 then you should give yourself a pat on the back. And then you should probably have a doctor examine your brain because you might be going insane.

Second Base: Omar Infante, Miami Marlins

Infante already has six home runs this season, two off his career high, but I’ll be the first to tell you that he will probably finish with under 10 on the season. Still, if you drafted him you’ve been greatly rewarded. He’s going to live and die by his BABIP due to the lack of walks, but he makes a lot of contact and is a career .276 hitter. He’s not this good, but you could sell high and play up the fact that he’s hit over .300 in three of his last four seasons and also qualifies all over the infield.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

Everyone was writing off Jeter after a “down” season, but he did hit .331 from July to September so there were signs of life in the veteran shortstop. Still, I don’t think anyone expected this from him. He currently sits with a .388/.429/.574 slash 30 games into the season.

Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

The third base position has been hit hard with injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman and Longoria. The most surprising is probably Longoria’s because he came in without the “injury prone” tag, but it’s starting to look like he should in the future.

Outfield: Austin Jackson, Detroit Tigers

We’ve seen Jackson put up good numbers before, but he’s never been able to sustain it for a full season. Well, this year he’s cut down on the strike outs (20.0 K%) and increased the walks (10.8 BB%) so he could be for real this time. He also looks like he’s running a little more so hopefully he keeps that up.

Outfield: Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians

I’ll be honest I am completely shocked by what’s going on with Choo. There’s nothing that appears wrong in his batting profile and he’s actually walking more than usual. It’s his power that is suffering and it could just be bad luck with his lower than normal HR/FB rate.

Outfield: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

I don’t think anyone expected Harper to be called upon this early in the season, but with the injuries to Mike Morse, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman he’s not only up in the majors, but he’s probably here to stay. The slump will eventually come, but you have to love the hustle that the 19-year-old plays with every day. If you’re not in a keeper league try to sell high on him while he’s hitting well.

Starting Pitcher: Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles

I’ve written about Hammel ad naseum so to spare you (and my fingers) the repetition you can read what I like about him this year over here.

Starting Pitcher: Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

The biggest knock on Morrow was his control, which was affecting his ability to pitch late into games and also stay out of trouble with extra runners on base. Well, he;s cut down the walks from 3.46 per nine in 2011 to just 2.27 this year. He’s also becoming more of a ground ball pitcher, inducing them 44.6 percent of the time as opposed to just 36 percent last year. If he can continue both of these trends, Morrow will be a top 25 pitcher.

Starting Pitcher: Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins

The knock on Johnson has always been his spotty injury history, but when he’s healthy he’s supposed to be unhittable. That’s not the case this year as he’s healthy (as far as we know) yet he’s striking out fewer batters, walking more, giving up more hits and gave up six freaking runs to the San Diego Padres! Something has to be wrong.

Closer: 14 of 30 teams have changed from potential opening day closer

I’ve never been part of a season where there has been this much closer turnover so early in the season. We lost two closers for the season (Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson) before the season even started and another four indefinitely very early on (Drew Storen, Andrew Bailey, Mariano Rivera and Brian Wilson). Then another nine teams have been struggling with injuries and general ineffectiveness.

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Buy/Sell: Hosmer, LaHair Off to Very Different Starts

One year ago, Eric Hosmer was a day away from hitting his first MLB home run en route to a .293-19-78 season in just 128 games. Today that all seems like a distant memory as he’s hitting just .181-5-16 in 30 games and is being talked about as a second-year bust. I say not so fast ye whom are quick to judge. First let’s take a look at his plate discipline:

It’s evident from the table that Hosmer has greatly improved his approach at the plate. He’s become much more selective by swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but also fewer pitches overall. This has helped him increase his walks and cut down on the strikeouts (not that he was ever striking out a lot before).

Also, his .172 ISO is identical to last year’s mark so the power is about the same. So what is causing Hosmer to under produce so much? You guessed it, his .168 BABIP. Here’s a table with his batting average broken down by batted ball:

You can see that Hosmer has had bad luck in every type of batted ball this season compare to 2011. Since 2002, batters have hit .232 on grounders, .220 on flies and .724 on liners. Eventually Hosmer’s luck is going to turn around and the hits will start falling. I still expect Hosmer to approach a .290 batting average with 22 home runs and 80 RBI.

Bryan LaHair, 1B, Chicago Cubs

A lot has been made about Bryan LaHair‘s ridiculous start to the season and rightfully so. Through 28 games he has a .384/.476/.767 slash with eight home runs and 18 RBI. Not bad for a guy with the Quad-A label.

He’s hitting the ball with authority, with 63.2 percent (24.6 GB%, 38.6 FB%) staying off the ground. His 15.5 walk percentage is also a nice added boost to his value, but it’s not all cherries on top of the sundae.

LaHair strikes out a lot (29.1 K%) thanks, in part, to his propensity to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (32.6 O-Swing%) and miss on swings altogether (12.6 SwStr%). Also, his luck regarding his .510 BABIP is off the charts.

I’m not saying LaHair is a bad player, he’s clearly proven that he can hit at a major league level. However, when he does come back down to earth a .270/.350/.480 slash for the rest of the season is about what you could be looking at. Not a bad player at all, but for what you could probably get for him now I think he’s worth shopping on the trade market and cash in.

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