I swore I wouldn’t do any offseason closer updates before spring training because relief pitchers can gain or lose too much value with the addition or subtraction of just one player, but I’m fairly confident the Red Sox have the last piece of their closing puzzle in place now as we move towards 2012. For Red Sox fans like me, you have to be thrilled that the team was finally able to acquire Andrew Bailey, especially given recent reports that the Rays were in the mix, but what does this mean from a fantasy perspective?
Boston Red Sox
Right now Bailey will be the team’s closer. They’ve pretty much committed to moving Daniel Bard to the rotation to start spring training and Mark Melancon, while a nice addition to the bullpen, will simply lose out to Bailey.
Courtesy: Statcorner.com
That said, how should you value Bailey going forward? He’s still a perennial injury risk, which prevents him from joining the ranks of the elite at his position in fantasy, but Boston is a nice place to be closing games. Over the last three years Jonathan Papelbon had the fifth-most saves in baseball, though admittedly this speaks to his longevity in the position, something many other closers can’t claim.
But there is a slight worry for Bailey fans. The right-hander tends to allow a good number of fly balls. In Oakland that wasn’t an issue. In Boston that could be a problem. Now, let’s clarify something here for a minute. Fenway Park is not the home run hitter’s haven that many seem to think it is. Last season Fenway finished 22nd in home run park factor according to ESPN and finished 21st in 2010, 21st in 2009, 25th in 2008, 23rd in 2007 and on and on it goes like that. It’s a very difficult place for left-handed batters to hit homers unless they wrap it right down the right-field line. The thing is Oakland is even harder.
What’s troublesome about Fenway’s dimensions is how conducive it is to doubles. Statcorner.com does park factors for every ballpark, and Fenway rated as a 142 for doubles to left-handed batters and a 132 for doubles to right-handed batters. In one-run games those doubles could be troublesome. Thankfully, Bailey doesn’t walk many batters and has a career WHIP of 0.95. In the long run it’s certainly not as great of a ballpark to be playing in, but he shouldn’t suffer too much.
When Bailey inevitably goes down, grab Melancon. He’s waiting in the wings right now, though there’s so much volatility in the Boston bullpen right now that Bobby Jenks could end up snaking some saves too.
In summary, here are the parties involved for Boston:
- Bailey: Value doesn’t change much
- Melancon: Loses value assuming he was the team’s closer before Bailey joined the team
- Bard: No effect, he’s likely a starting pitcher
- Jenks: Worthless until I say otherwise
Oakland Athletics
Who replaces Bailey? Brian Fuentes has closing experience, saving 12 games for Oakland last season with a 3.70 ERA and 24 games in 2009 split between the Angels and Twins with a 2.81 ERA. Fuentes struggled before the All-Star Break last season (4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) but was lights out in the second half (1.71 ERA, 0.91 WHIP). For what it’s worth, when Bailey was injured last season Fuentes was the first guy called upon (though he struggled at the time).
Josh Outman, Jerry Blevins and Tom Milone are the A’s other left-handed relievers (assuming Outman doesn’t make the rotation but he very well could with Gio Gonzalez gone) so the team doesn’t necessarily have a void to fill by moving Fuentes to the ninth inning. Milone’s addition in particular (from the Gonzalez trade) is great news for Fuentes as it makes his former role in the bullpen less important. Grant Balfour has been money over the last four seasons posting ERAs under 3.00 in three of them, however he has just 10 career saves.
As of now I think we’ll see Fuentes emerge as the team’s closer in spring training, but there’s plenty to be decided between now and then. Oakland’s closing job will likely be a mess all season which means saves vultures should be paying attention to what happens in the Bay Area (and not just because San Fran’s Brian Wilson is a side show all his own).
Here’s how I think things shape up for Oakland’s relievers:
- Fuentes: Huge potential gain moving to ninth inning
- Balfour: Moderate gain but only as a saves vulture and someone fantasy owners should know as the guy waiting in the wings
