By the end of last season the top 10 players with third eligibility read as such:
- Jose Bautista
- Michael Young
- Adrian Beltre
- Aramis Ramirez
- Emilio Bonifacio
- Jhonny Peralta
- Pablo Sandoval
- Evan Longoria
- Ryan Roberts
- Mark Reynolds
What. The. Hell.
Bautista’s finish at the top of the position was predictable, and even Young at two and Beltre at three aren’t earth-shattering, but Bonifacio cracking the top five? Peralta at six? Longoria at eight? Who the hell is Ryan Roberts?
Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, David Wright and Martin Prado are big household names that put up pretty terrible seasons. Seriously, you would have done better had you punted the position during your draft and taken a chance on free agents.
The effects of last season’s third base shakeup are still being felt as fantasy drafts approach for the 2012 season. Mock Draft Central has begun posting mock draft results, and as fantasy baseball addicts it’s never too early to see who’s being overpaid for and who we can get on the cheap. Here are the third base rankings thus far according to MDC’s mocks (ADP in parentheses):
- Jose Bautista (4.4)
- Evan Longoria (10.4)
- David Wright (33.7)
- Adrian Beltre (34.6)
- Ryan Zimmerman (41.7)
- Alex Rodriguez (50.4)
- Michael Young (63.2)
- Aramis Ramirez (70.3)
- Pablo Sandoval (74.1)
- Kevin Youkilis (78.8)
- Brett Lawrie (95.4)
- David Freese (133.8)
- Mark Reynolds (136.9)
- Martin Prado (178.7)
- Chase Headley (184.8)
- Ryan Roberts (188.5)
- Emilio Bonifacio (210.8)
- Edwin Encarnacion (215.0)
- Casey McGehee (217.0
- Pedro Alvarez (223.9)
- Daniel Murphy (234.7)
- Mike Moustakas (239.9)
- Miguel Tejada (245.0)
- Chone Figgins (247.1)
- Danny Valencia (250.2)
Bautista and Longoria are safe first-round options. Longoria’s BABIP last season was ultra-low despite a solid line drive rate so the batting average will certainly climb and he was a power monster after a sluggish start. The opposite of Longoria, Bautista’s average will drop a little and his power tailed off in the second half. I’m tempted to take a chance and draft Longoria over Bautista, but I can understand why someone might have reservations about that.
Wright and Beltre are the next two players to come off the board, but that doesn’t happen until over 20 picks later. Both players pose significant risks, Wright with his loss of Jose Reyes and recent record of up-and-down play, and Beltre for his health and repeat power potential. Did you know his fly ball rate last season was a career best and his HR/FB rate was the second highest of his career (remember that 48-homer season in 2004?). I don’t like paying for career years and 2011 was pretty damn unusual.
I question how much production you’ll get out of Zimmerman and Rodriguez this season. Do you really think Zimmerman is the .300/30/100 player we saw shades of in 2009? He screams .285/25/90 to me and while that’s very good, I’d rather use a fourth to sixth round pick on someone like Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, David Price or some other borderline fantasy ace. Remember, these early middle rounds are where you should start grabbing your pitching staff’s anchors. As for Rodriguez, he’s a .270 hitter who will likely miss a handful of time. You can get another aging veteran with health risks almost three rounds later (Youkilis).
Young is a pretty safe pick around the sixth or seventh round, but it’s nice to get some power out of your third baseman. He’s probably not going to give you that. What he does give you is a good average and multi-position eligibility. I love roster flexibility and Young is the exact kind of player I want on my team. Draft him to be your third baseman and take a chance on Lawrie a couple rounds later (an Ian Kinsler analogue in my opinion) or way later you can find Alvarez or Moustakas, both of whom certainly have breakout potential.
Freese seems like your average fantasy substitute to me. Chronic injuries limit his playing time, his power potential isn’t great and his stat line is rather easily replaceable. Pass on him. And the same goes for Headley. Prado is the name that stands out from that group. His average in 2011 was hurt by a low BABIP, but that was hurt by what I’ve deemed persistent poor contact. He’s certainly no guarantee to rebound to the Prado of old (or at least the Prado of 2010) but he has a ton more upside than the other third basemen where he’s being drafted.
What we say of Prado can also be said of Roberts and Bonifacio. Roberts has the power and speed to push 20/20 again, and he should find the playing time as well. Bonifacio has the speed to steal 40-plus again, but I’m not sure exactly where he’ll play. He’s worth taking a chance on in hopes that new manager Ozzie Guillen recognizes his value.
As for the rest of the third basemen, I already mentioned Alvarez and Moustakas as good guys to take chances on, but the rest is lackluster at best. In fact, lackluster seems like a pretty good way to sum up the position at the start of 2012, but that makes it all the more volatile and thus all the more interesting.
I think Sandoval could provide excellent value at pick 74.
With giants added speed to the top of the lineup we see more RISP for Sandoval.
Fingers crossed Melky can come close to repeating his 2011 season. Plus Pagan > Torres and maybe we’ll get something from Brandon Belt. Giants offense should be on the up and up.
There’s definitely some huge upside in that pick. I’d have no problem taking him in the sixth or seventh round if I’ve decided to pass on Arod of Zim.