Archive | November, 2011

Fantasy Impact: DeJesus Signs with Cubs and Rockies Ship Iannetta to Angels

By on November 30, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Winter meetings are just around the corner, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of moves to ponder. I’ll do my best to avoid discussing the impact of relief pitcher signings because players that might be closers now (Daniel Bard) might not be closers very soon (Ryan Madson to Red Sox?). As for the rest of the positions, there’s much we can glean early on before the calendar reads 2012.

David DeJesus Signs with the Cubs

David DeJesus became the first addition of the Theo Epstein era in Chicago. This move is notable for two reasons. First, DeJesus will be playing in an offense-friendly ballpark for the first time in his now nine-year career after previous stops in Kansas City and Oakland. He had a down year offensively in 2011 due in large part to some bad luck (.274 BABIP) and injuries (torn thumb ligament) so his stock is already down. He has the potential to bat near .300 with a solidish 70-plus runs and RBI, and he has been a double-digit home run guy for the last several seasons. With a little help from Wrigley Field, we could see a career high in home runs from DeJesus this season. According to StatCorner.com, Kauffman Stadium has a park factor of just 79 for left-handed batters (league average is 100) while The Coliseum in Oakland rates as 89. Wrigley Field scores a 119.

Second, DeJesus officially blocks minor league standout Brett Jackson. Adding DeJesus to a  crowded outfield containing incumbents Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Tyler Colvin will cost Jackson playing time at the major league level. With the team unlikely to be competitive in 2012, it doesn’t make sense to call up your best hitting prospect just to sit him on the bench. Jackson could use some more seasoning in triple-A where his 29.8 percent strikeout rate screams big league bust. Of course, it’s no secret that the Cubs would love to move Soriano’s contract. If that happens then Jackson will get a chance in spring training. For now he’s on the outside looking in.

Chris Iannetta to the Angels, Ramon Hernandez to the Rockies?

The Rockies have had their eye on free agent catcher Ramon Hernandez, and now that the new CBA downgrades him from a Type A free agent the team can finally afford to offer him a contract. Chris Iannetta has always had good pop in his bat, but his career .235 average pales in comparison to Hernandez’s .297 and .282 averages over the last two seasons. Tyler Chatwood, who the Rockies received in exchange for Iannetta, is a fantasy nobody.

For the Angels, Iannetta’s bat will be a welcome addition for fans that miss Mike Napoli. The Angels are rather crowded behind the plate with Jeff Mathis, Hank Conger and Bobby Wilson on the 40-man roster. Mathis is arbitration eligible and likely due around $1.8MM (he made $1.2MM last season) but manager Mike Scioscia and general manager Jerry DiPoto both know the value of Mathis’ defense. Conger is one of the team’s top prospects but few believe he’s ready to be an everyday catcher. Wilson is likely the odd man out here. Either way, Angels Stadium is nowhere near the hitter’s haven that Coors Field is and Iannetta will likely platoon with whichever catcher the team deems to be his worthy colleague. Downgrade Iannetta.

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#7: Is David Price a legitimate fantasy ace?

By on November 29, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Last May I traded Ricky Nolasco, Colby Lewis and Michael Pineda for David Price. At the time Nolasco had an ERA in the 3.00s, Lewis was coming off three straight great starts and Pineda was tossing the ball as well as anyone in the league. Dealing those three did a number on my team’s pitching depth, but I was willing to risk it because I valued Price as a legitimate fantasy ace and someone I couldn’t wait to pair with Cole Hamels and Ricky Romero atop my roster’s starting rotation (I guess I have a thing for left-handed starters…who knew).

As it turned out, Nolasco went into a tailspin shortly thereafter, Lewis had struggles of his own (I was actually able to reacquire him off free agency) and Pineda hit a wall like most rookie starters do. I did get three stellar months out of Price (May, June and August) when he combined to throw 119 1/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball, but his ERA in the other half of the season was an un-acelike 4.29.

So, which Price should we expect to see in 2012? Will it be 2010′s 19-game winner who finished with a 2.72 ERA or 2011′s 12-game winner who finished with a sub-.500 record and a 3.49 ERA? And whichever Price we see, is he good enough to be among the top 10 starting pitchers in the league? That’s exactly what question number seven asks in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series.

Who’s the real David Price?

Price’s 2010 and 2011 metrics tell a confusing story. His 2011 stat line is vastly inferior to the one he posted the year before, but many of his peripheral indicators improved.

2011 was Price’s less impressive year in terms of wins and ERA, but he had a better strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball-t0-fly ball ratio, three of the primary indicators of pitching success. His line drive rate rose slightly as did his BABIP and HR/FB rate. All of those numbers corrected themselves to career averages. Still, FIP tells the story best of all; despite some of his stats normalizing, the improvements he made in strikeouts, walks and ground balls were enough to drop his FIP about half a run despite the major rise in his ERA.

Was 2010 just that lucky then or was 2011 that unlucky? It’s probably more the former. Price’s 2011 FIP and ERA aren’t that far off so while he did pitch better than someone with an ERA around 3.50, he never really was as good as he appeared in 2010. For all you Jeremy Hellickson owners out there, take notice. He’s going to regress in 2012, but that’s an article for another day.

Price has shown consistent improvement in the three major peripheral categories we discussed above, walks, strikeouts and ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, so it stands to reason he’s probably not done growing in those areas. With a little more luck, which we see in his yearly opponents’ batting averages with runners in scoring position (.258 in 2011, .181 in 2010, career opponents’ average of .225), we should see Price’s numbers return to form. Now, his division must be taken into account, but Price did very well against the Red Sox (2.93 ERA) and Blue Jays (2.23 ERA) last season. His only struggles all year came against the Yankees (5.22 ERA), Angels (4.76 ERA) and Athletics (6.75 ERA), and in the latter two he did toss at least 10 innings against each. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but it’s worth noting anyway.

I’d say 15-plus wins with a 3.10 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 220 strikeouts are pretty good numbers to bet on in 2011. That seems ace-worthy, but how does it compare with the league’s best starters?

Does that make David Price an ace?

According to ESPN, last season’s top 10 starters finished as follows:

Price finished the year as the 18th-best starter. Will our projected improvements be enough to slot him on the leaderboard above? If we ranked our projected Price stats among that group (15 wins, 3.10 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 220 strikeouts) we see he’d rank ninth in wins, ninth in ERA, ninth in WHIP and tied-sixth in strikeouts so at best he might be a low-tier ace. To get a better idea of how his projected 2012 line compares, let’s rank it against 2011′s end-of-season stats.

If Price put up our projected 2012 line during the 2011 season, he would likely have finished just behind Dan Haren and ahead of CC Sabathia as the 10th-best fantasy starting pitcher. I’m not going to go into detail explaining whether or not I believe each of last season’s top 10 starters will repeat because luck and breakouts will inevitably alter the list (who’ll be next season’s Ian Kennedy and, vice versa, Adam Wainwright) but the fact remains that the stats these 10 starters accrued, independent of names, will likely be similar to next season’s top 10.

If Price pitches how we expect him to, he should be a borderline top 10 option. Of course, with a little luck and some obvious improvements in skill, we could be looking at a legitimate, top-tier fantasy ace.

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#36: Will Derek Jeter's power return?

By on November 28, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

Fantasy owners, and Yankees fans, held their collective breath this past season when shortstop Derek Jeter stumbled to a .250 average after April and had improved that mark to just .270 at the All-Star Break. It was only a few months prior that the lifelong Bomber had finished his 2010 season batting .270 with signs of rapid decline cropping up everywhere. In fantasy leagues desperate for offensive-minded shortstops to round out the bottom tier of starters, Jeter’s struggles were infuriating.

That all ended in the second half of 2011 as Jeter turned back the clock and batted .327 the rest of the way. By the time the Yankees’ season had finished and the team was getting ready for another playoff exit, Jeter had his average up all the way to .297. All-in-all, not a bad effort.

But just six home runs? Like the down average in 2010, can Jeter rebound to become the mid-teens home run threat he’s been for the entirety of his career? That’s what question 36 asks in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series.

This isn’t the first time I’ve said this and it won’t be the last, but a player’s home run total essentially boils down to three readily available numbers:

  1. Strikeout rate (or, rather, how often he puts the ball in play)
  2. Fly ball rate (FB%, pretty self-explanatory)
  3. HR/FB rate (how often do those fly balls leave the yard)

Because charts are easy to read (and easy to explain) I’ve put one together that will help us get a snapshot of Jeter’s 2011 season as it compares to his previous five seasons (2006-2010). Because Jeter’s getting up there in age, I elected to look at that five-season window as opposed to his career numbers (when he was a 20-plus home run threat).

Compared to Jeter’s recent seasons, 2011 saw a decreased fly ball rate and a decreased HR/FB rate. While he was putting a greater percentage of balls in play, it wasn’t enough to make up for his drop in the other two areas. So, we’ve established that Jeter’s power indicators were pretty low last season — and this isn’t shocking given his paltry six home runs — but is this a trend or a one-year anomaly? Let’s look at each of the six seasons above individually.

Jeter’s strikeout rate has been fairly consistent over the past six seasons, but his fly ball rate and HR/FB rate show some concerning trends. His fly ball rate has been on the decline every year since 2007 before last year hovering at its 2010 level. To get an idea of how bad an 18.6 percent line drive rate, consider that of the 145 qualifying batters last season, Jeter’s was the absolute lowest. The next closest were Ichiro Suzuki and Elvis Andrus at 21.1 percent apiece. Jeter’s in a league of fly ball ineptitude all his own.

If he wants to get back to that double-digit home run mark, he’s probably going to have to do a better job of making those fly balls count, and a seven percent HR/FB rate isn’t going to cut it. Like we saw in 2010, a 10 percent HR/FB rate is probably the absolute lowest he’ll need. He’s only done that in three of the last six seasons (if you include the 9.9% mark in 2010).

Can he get back up to that 10 percent HR/FB rate? Generally, HR/FB rate is a factor of ballpark and a player’s raw power. Jeter’s park did change, though the dimensions remain the same, so did his raw power change? We can evaluate that in two ways: batting average on line drives and average ball speed off bat on homers.

If you recall in our post concerning Mike Morse’s 2011 breakout, we saw that stronger batters tend to have higher batting averages on line drives because they hit the ball harder. Click here for a chart that recapped this. Let’s see what Jeter’s numbers have been over the last six years.

That .655 average on line drives was his lowest since 2002, the furthest back the stat goes. It should be noted that in both 2011 and 2008, the two years he showed serious decline in his average on line drives, Jeter played fewer games due to lingering injuries. The average ball speed off his bat on home runs has been fairly consistent from year to year, but this is skewed by small sample sizes in most cases (just six to 14 home runs we can evaluate in most years).

It appears Jeter’s lost enough raw power in his older age to the point where any injury is enough to drain him of his power (not a shocking revelation). If he was to have a completely injury free season he would likely become that 12-15 home run player again, but is that something we can expect from a shortstop who’ll be 38 this June? Probably not. For that reason I’m projecting Jeter for about 10 home runs in 2012. It’s not quite what we’ve seen from him over his career, but it’s certainly better than the six we saw last year in his 131 games and only a tad below his recent production.

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#26: Will Michael Morse repeat?

By on November 9, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Question number 26 asks, “Michael Morse had a breakout year this past season. Should we trust him with a repeat performance?” This question is short, simple and relies on our most commonly used tools for performance analysis. It sounds like the perfect question for me to tackle on a busy Wednesday morning.

Is the .303 average legit?

To answer this, we’ll delve into the world of BABIP and batted ball data (like we always do). Morse posted a .344 BABIP last season, which seems a little high, but is career BABIP in 618 at-bats entering last season was .348. While it’s not the largest sample size, is it possible that Morse is a BABIP freak?

Normally higher BABIPs are reserved for players that display a fare amount of speed. Based on Morse’s steals, or lack thereof, it’s likely that this isn’t the case. His 1.8 speed score last season further illustrates his lack of foot power.

From 2009 through 2011, there are 225 players that have recorded at least 1,000 total at-bats (about Morse’s career total, 1,140). While Morse hasn’t accrued 1,000 at-bats over this three year span, it provides us with a large enough data set (the 225 players) with a relevant and similar amount of at-bats. Morse’s current .346 BABIP would be ninth-best of those 225 players. Who else is around him? Take a look for yourself!

This list represents the top 20 BABIPs for players who accumulated 1,000-plus at-bats over the last three seasons. Only Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, Jack Cust and Michael Young would be described as rather unspeedy, and even within that group Votto and Hamilton have some semblance of swiftness. To me, Cust is the most interesting name since his .344 BABIP and six total steals are almost identical to Morse’s numbers. Though I cut it out of the chart above due to width constraints, Cust is batting just .244 over this span due to a 30.5 percent strikeout rate. Morse consistently strikes out about 21 percent of the time, a noticeable drop from Cust’s rate. That explains the difference.

So, can Morse maintain this BABIP? Let’s look deeper into his BABIP, specifically his batting average on grounders, flies and liners from 2011:

  • Line Drives: .756, league average: .720
  • Ground Balls: .250, league average: .250
  • Fly Balls: .209, league average: .130

His batting average on fly balls is a bit high as is his average on line drives. I’d expect his average on flies to regress to the league average, however I am not surprised to see his average on line drives above league average because Morse is widely regarded as one of the strongest men in baseball (and harder hit liners equals a higher average on said liners). On July 9 of this year I decided to take a creative approach to deciding who the strongest man in baseball was. According to my analysis, Morse was the third strongest man in baseball behind Nelson Cruz and Mike Stanton. In fact, I’ll reproduce the chart I made back then right now.

Overall RankAvg. RankPlayerHomersRank HR/ABRank Dist.Rank SpeedRank HR/FB
15.0Cruz, Nelson206455
27.3Stanton, Mike1814519
311.3Morse, Mike15218313
411.8Fielder, Prince22815159
512.8Reynolds, Mark20720168
614.3Holliday, Matt141717176
614.3Napoli, Mike12323274
815.0Bautista, Jose29143142
916.5Berkman, Lance24237261
1018.0Trumbo, Mark15307629
1119.3Kemp, Matt22106547
1223.8Pena, Carlos191138433
1325.0Braun, Ryan1629262025
1425.8Cabrera, Miguel1818472315
1526.0Hamilton, Josh1038181335
1626.8Pujols, Albert1719303325
1728.3Howard, Ryan1824244916
1828.5Morrison, Logan1240271037
1929.3Johnson, Kelly1632283522
2029.5Freeman, Freddie1355122229
2029.5Upton, Justin15512263
2230.3Weeks, Rickie1741361925
2330.5Moreland, Mitch11543461
2330.5Nix, Laynce1126215520
2531.5Tulowitzki, Troy1728223145
2631.8Gonzalez, Carlos136414841
2732.0Lind, Adam1613346714
2832.5Cuddyer, Michael135592541
2933.5McCann, Brian1435112959
3033.8Rodriguez, Alex1355191249
3134.8Votto, Joey1369132829
3235.0Ortiz, David1912615116
3335.3Hart, Corey1046106619
3437.0Bruce, Jay2016356433
3537.3Gomes, Jonny1125503836
3537.3Uggla, Dan1458161857
3737.8Iannetta, Chris1036512143
3839.0Konerko, Paul229666516
3939.8Wells, Vernon1327493449
4040.5Quentin, Carlos1720582460
4141.5Willingham, Josh1059411155
4241.8Heisey, Chris1015755225
4342.0Granderson, Curtis255787411
4443.3Wigginton, Ty1149455623
4643.8Teixeira, Mark254807912
4744.0Espinosa, Danny1633536129
4845.0Arencibia, J.P.1234484751
4945.3Gordon, Alex10871786
5046.0Soriano, Alfonso1423447245
5147.3Beltre, Adrian1647324169
5249.3Hardy, J.J.1322676345
5349.5Pence, Hunter108633970
5449.8Cano, Robinson1548853234
5449.8Santana, Carlos1345655039
5651.0Longoria, Evan1131844643
5751.8Gonzalez, Adrian1739717621
5852.8Avila, Alex1060553957
5954.5Ellsbury, Jacoby1181293672
6055.0Olivo, Miguel1244863753
6155.8Young, Chris1553425375
6256.5Beltran, Carlos1365394577
6256.5Boesch, Brennan1271523073
6256.5Upton, B.J.1443767037
6557.3Smoak, Justin1262634064
6658.0Jones, Adam1369626239
6759.5Ludwick, Ryan1178314287
6861.5McCutchen, Andrew1366546066
6962.3Cabrera, Melky1185255980
6962.3Montero, Miguel1074406867
7163.8Kinsler, Ian1367594485
7264.3Sanchez, Gaby1372604877
7364.5Peralta, Jhonny1437767768
7364.5Ramirez, Aramis1542707571
7565.8Martin, Russell1052738652
7666.3Joyce, Matt1163647365
7767.3Werth, Jayson1080575874
7868.5Cabrera, Asdrubal1468688454
7969.0Youkilis, Kevin1261728261
8070.3Francoeur, Jeff1275566981
8170.5Ibanez, Raul1177698155
8272.0Stubbs, Drew1182748745
8378.8Zobrist, Ben1083797182
8479.0Roberts, Ryan1073828576
8479.0Valencia, Danny1079808077
8681.0Swisher, Nick1076877883
8783.3Pedroia, Dustin1084828384

How do those top 10 players fare in terms of batting average on line drives? You can see their career rates below.

Nine of the ten were well above average, and the players at the top of the list generally had higher averages on line drives than the players toward the bottom of the list. I’ll be the first to admit this was very quick, rudimentary analysis and it’s something I would like to look at in more depth during the offseason, but right now I think it proves my point. Morse’s BABIP really isn’t fluky. Perhaps his average on fly balls drops from .209 to somewhere closer to league average (.130ish), but even then we’re looking at a guy with a .325-.335 BABIP during the season, and that likely means a nice .280-plus average at worst with potential to hit in the .290s or better.

What about the power, runs and RBI?

We’ve already established Morse is in elite company in terms of strength, which means his home run total comes down to the number of at-bats he gets and fly balls he hits. His 21.2 percent HR/FB rate and 36.5 percent fly ball rate are both repeatable, and I think we’ll see another 30-plus home run season.

As for runs and RBI, Morse produced this season without the expected contributions from Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so even with a small drop in batting average we should see at least the same run and RBI production by virtue of Washington’s offense improving.

Putting it all together, yeah, I think Morse is going to repeat his 2011 season. And that includes almost nothing in the way of steals. Of course, with his power potential, that won’t bother you in the least.

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12 Early Thoughts on Starting Pitching in 2012

By on November 8, 2011 | Comments { 5 }

True to our site’s name, we’ve been doing a lot of stat-heavy, intensive articles here at Baseball Professor. They aren’t crazy in-depth studies like you’ll find on other sites because we do our best to keep them around 1,000 words and manageable for people of all levels of baseball knowledge, but they aren’t 20 minute fluff pieces either.

That’s what this article is!

To break up the long prose and sometimes convoluted stats, I thought I’d sit down and write a bunch of thoughts I have about the state of starting pitching in 2012. I’ll avoid just asking questions since we’ve already gone and listed a bunch of those in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series, so my hope is that this article inspires a little discussion in the comments section. To our frequent commenters (yeah, there’s a few of you) we thank you for reading our articles and contributing your thoughts. To our hundreds of loyal readers who don’t comment frequently, what are you waiting for?! Anyway, here are some of my early offseason thoughts on starting pitching for your (hopeful) commenting pleasure:

  1. It came across the news wire yesterday that Melky Cabrera has been shipped to San Francisco in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez. If you read yesterday’s other article regarding Alex Gordon‘s value next season, you already know I downgraded his run and RBI potential because it’s likely that Cabrera was going to regress. Now, with his bat completely removed from the lineup, we have to wonder where all that extra production is going to come from. As for Sanchez, he finished with the 48th best home run rate last season out of 145 pitchers that threw at least 100 innings and he’s actually moving from a park that discourages home runs to one that downright punishes home run hitters. The average non-San Fran NL West offense last season ranked 16.5 in the league in runs scored whereas the average non-KC AL Central offense ranked 15.8th. There’s not a ton of difference here. If anything I sort of like the move since the Royals have a better chance at a stronger offense as of today.
  2. Do you know Yu Darvish? Over the last five years in Japan he’s compiled a 75-28 record and a sub-2.00 ERA. Many believe he’d be the ace of many current MLB rotations. It’s not decided if/where he’ll pitch, but if he does become available it’s going to be something to keep an eye on.
  3. With the Rays picking up James Shields‘ extension, it looks unlikely that they’ll trade their ace. Who are some names to watch for offseason movement? Gio Gonzalez, Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Ricky Nolasco, Jeremy Guthrie and some less important names have been rumored to be available. Of those names I think Gonzalez has the most to lose from a fantasy perspective. In the unlikely event he’s traded, he’ll likely go to a contender with a better offense, but I’d hate to have him leave that ballpark.
  4. I’m bullish on Jon Lester in 2012. Maybe it’s the Red Sox fan in me, but Lester was the only member of the team’s rotation to come forward and really acknowledge their lack of effort, and with his semi-contrite half-confession (at this point I’ll take what I can get) and the team’s new management, I can’t help but think it’s all systems go heading forward. I’m willing to gamble on Lester being a low-tier ace (read: top 10 SP) next season.
  5. Speaking of the Red Sox, it’s no surprise that they were again among the league’s most potent offenses, but with John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka victims of Tommy John, two-fifths of the Boston rotation is currently vacant. The Yankees are having issues of their own, so is it any surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees are bumbling big money teams while the Rays, and their dearth of young pitching, continue to threaten for the division and the Rangers have made back-to-back World Series appearances, this time on the back of a top-10 starting rotation? Enough with the ranting. From a fantasy perspective, whoever wins those rotation spots in Boston and New York are likely to stumble into a few wins, but don’t let that change how you value them as fantasy contributors. Somehow Lackey ended up with 12 wins and a .500 record, besting Doug Fister‘s 11-13 mark (but not his 2.83 ERA). Wins suck.
  6. The more I look at Brandon Beachy‘s stats, the more impressed I am with him as a pitcher. He had a 3.19 FIP, the eighth best O-Contact% (percent of pitches outside the strike zone that batters swing and miss at) of the 145 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and the 16th best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Expect big things from this kid.
  7. Justin Verlander finished with a .236 BABIP against, the fourth lowest rate of said 145 pitchers. We know this rate fluctuates wildly for pitchers from year to year, so how much regression should Verlander see? His previous career low was .279. If the relationship between his FIP, xFIP and ERA tells us anything, it says we should expect an ERA over 3.00 next year. Either way, that will certainly be elite.
  8. I don’t understand Matt Cain. 2011 was the first time I had ever conceded that Cain was as good as his inexplicable peripherals indicate and then he replicated them again. His .260 BABIP is now the norm and not an outlier (career .265) and his while his career 4.26 xFIP depicts a pitcher better suited to be a team’s number three, Cain is every bit the ace that Tim Lincecum is. Between Cain, Lincy and Madison Bumgarner, it’s no wonder why the Giants felt they could let Sanchez go.
  9. Who’s the real Justin Masterson? Is it the guy who can’t get lefties out and masquerades as a legitimate part of a major league rotation or the guy who shuts down elite offenses and masquerades as the ace of a rebuilding team’s rotation? I have no friggen clue…yet.
  10. I do not believe in Josh Collmenter so don’t even think about drafting him next year. He allows too many fly balls (47%) for the park he plays in and his BABIP (.255) is too low.
  11. Even though I badmouthed him all season, it might be time to buy Vance Worley. His end-of-season BABIP (.283) isn’t awfully low and his FIP (3.32) is actually very good. He’s always had great control in the minors, but I do wonder if he’ll replicate that 8.13 K/9 from last season. My thought is no.
  12. I feel bad for anyone in a keeper league who needs to decide what to do with Ubaldo Jimenez. I wouldn’t wish that kind of mental torture on anyone. He has so much potential but we haven’t seen him pitch well since early 2010. That’s like nine months of baseball without a stretch that gives you any semblance of confidence. Seriously, how do you evaluate this guy? Do you take the chance that he’s the Jimenez of old and hold onto him or do you cut your losses and play it safe with someone like Aramis Ramirez? Maybe you roll the dice and go with the uber-talented Colby Rasmus. I do think Toronto is a good situation for him. By the way, I’ve been describing my offseason dilemma this whole time. Tell me what to do!
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#92: How much does losing third base eligibility affect Alex Gordon's value?

By on November 7, 2011 | Comments { 5 }

The term post-hype sleeper gets thrown around a lot — at least it does around these parts — and no one personifies that term better than Alex Gordon. For four years Gordon floundered in Kansas City, first getting the call in 2007 and remaining with the Royals for the entirety of ’07 and ’08. By 2009 it had become apparent that something wasn’t right with the the organization’s future third baseman. Had the Royals gone and missed on the game’s next “Can’t Miss” prospect?

Gordon played just 123 games in 2009 and 2010 combined and managed to bat just .222 with 14 home runs, 42 RBI and six steals over those two disappointing seasons. Fantasy owners stopped taking a chance on Gordon and turned to other potential breakout candidates. And don’t you know that’s when Gordon finally got going. When 2011 was all said and done the Royals had put together a surprisingly potent offense that finished 10th in the league in runs scored.

At a thin third base position, Gordon ranked second on the year only behind the impossibly strong Jose Bautista and ahead of, well, everyone else. Unfortunately, Gordon never played an out at third base in 2011, meaning he won’t be able to claim eligibility at one of the most up-for-grabs positions in fantasy. Question number 92 in out Top 100 Offseason Questions asks, “How much does losing third base eligibility affect Alex Gordon’s value?”

Was 2011 a mirage or is Gordon actually that good?

Before we try to rank Gordon among the many outfielders he’ll be competing against for playing time on fantasy rosters in 2012, we first have to see if his 2011 line of .303, 101 runs, 23 home runs, 87 RBI and 17 steals is repeatable. (In short, it’s not. At least not entirely. If you want the details on why he won’t repeat his 23rd-ranked season, keep reading.)

BABIP tells us a lot about how likely a batter is to reproduce his season totals, particularly batting average. I won’t elaborate on that because anyone who’s read our stuff here should know that we reference it in almost every article. It’s that important. Gordon’s BABIP in 2011 was .358. Prior to 2011, his career BABIP was .294. On the surface that 64 point gap seems rather large, but it’s not impossible for a player to earn his higher BABIP by increasing his line drive rate or by making harder contact in general. Is this the case for Gordon? Sort of. The chart below compares Gordon’s batted ball data from 2011 to the rest of his career (2007-2010).

Gordon shows minor improvements across the board, increasing his line drive rate, ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and HR/FB rate while dropping his infield fly rate and strikeout rate, but are all those minor improvements enough to justify a 59-point increase in batting average? No. I do think Gordon is as good as his LD/GB/FB rates indicate, but the problem is that does not translate to a .300-plus average. Let’s say Gordon’s 2012 BABIP ends up at his current career average (.314). Assuming the same power and strikeout numbers, that scenario yields a .270 average. For the sake of optimism that Gordon is better than those early-career numbers indicate, let’s put his potential 2012 batting average in the .270-.280 range. I’ll call that .275.

Now, is the power legit? I think so. His 12.6 percent HR/FB rate is a new career high, but only slightly. For the most part, Gordon has been hitting home runs at about the same rate for three seasons, so I don’t see a real reason for this to change now. We’ll put his expected home run output for 2012 at 23 again.

What about those 17 stolen bases? Speed isn’t anything new to Gordon as he stole 14 bases during his rookie year, but we’ve already projected a lower batting average by virtue of Gordon losing about 20 hits due to a regression in BABIP. Gordon stole a base once every 11 or 12 times he reached first base (via singles, walks, hit by pitches or errors). Assuming the walks, hit by pitches and errors remain the same, those 20 fewer hits will yield about two fewer stolen bases. We’ll put his projected 2012 stolen base total at 15.

Runs and RBI aren’t so easy to calculate. What we do know about Gordon’s 2011 run and RBI totals is that they were likely inflated by a surprisingly good Royals offense. If you think that Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francouer and company will all repeat their 2011 numbers, then go ahead an downgrade Gordon’s runs and RBI only slightly (again, because of the projected decrease in batting average). Even though Gordon will likely enjoy a full season of production from Eric Hosmer, I don’t think the Royals will be as good on offense again. I’ll arbitrarily decrease his run and RBI totals from 101 runs and 87 RBI to more reasonable totals, 85 and 75, respectively. Remember, I dropped them this much because I don’t think his average or his lineup will be nearly as good.

That gives us a projected .275 average, 85 runs, 23 home runs, 75 RBI and 15 stolen bases. That’s a pretty good season, but it brings us to our next question…

Where does Gordon’s projected line rank among outfielders?

Last season, Gordon was the seventh-ranked outfielder. The numbers we just projected draw closest comparison to Shane Victorino‘s 2011 line: .279 average, 95 runs, 17 home runs, 61 RBI and 19 stolen bases. While Gordon is projected to finish with more home runs and RBI, he should tally fewer runs and stolen bases (with a similar average). Victorino’s 2011 line was 68th-best overall and 22nd-best among outfielders.

So Gordon’s 2011 numbers were good for seventh among outfielders, and my 2012 projection for him is good for 22nd-best. Depending on the size of your league, he went from a low-tier number one outfielder to a low-tier number two or high-tier number three. If you were to put Gordon’s 2012 numbers and approximate 68 rank at third base, he would be about the fifth to seventh best third baseman.

So, how much does losing third base eligibility affect Gordon’s value?

This question isn’t easy to answer, so I decided to compare the top 15 third basemen to the top 45, 60 and 75 outfielders from 2011. Like last time, 45 outfielders were used since there are three outfielders per one of every other hitting position but I also included 60 and 75 outfielders for four and five outfielder leagues. Because of these different formats of leagues, I decided to look at Gordon’s value at each position in each kind of league. That chart is below.

Three Outfielder Leagues

Last year the average starting fantasy third baseman ranked about 20 spots lower than the average starting outfielder in three outfielder leagues. The projected percentile column lets us see where Gordon’s projected 2012 stats would rank at that particular position. If you remember those standardized tests you had to take in middle school (or maybe the PSATs in high school) that told you what percentile you placed in, you might recall that a higher number is better. The 99th percentile meant you were in the top one percent. In Gordon’s case his projected 2012 stats would place him in the 60th percentile at third base (top 40 percent) and the 51st percentile in the outfield (about the top 50 percent). Clearly his contributions are more valuable at the hot corner than they are in the outfield in these kinds of leagues.

Gordon’s value: Declines about 15 percent, not including a decline in overall roster flexibility

Four Outfielder Leagues

The average starting outfielder in four outfielder leagues was actually worse than the average starting third baseman in 2011. In these leagues Gordon’s projected 2012 line actually would have been more valuable in the outfield than at third base. If Gordon had 3B/OF eligibility in these leagues, he’d likely end up splitting time between both positions depending on the talent of the rest of your roster. But, now that Gordon solely has OF eligibility, he can only start in the outfield (or utility) and your overall roster flexibility decreases. Because Gordon is almost equally valuable at third base and outfield but is losing his third base eligibility and thus decreasing your flexibility, he loses a little bit of value in these leagues but not a ton.

Gordon’s value: Declines slightly

Five Outfielder Leagues

In five outfielder leagues the next available backups in outfield are players like Juan Rivera, Hideki Matsui or David Murphy whereas the next available backups at third base are guys like Danny Valencia and David Freese. None of those players are guys you want to have to start, but it’s clear to me the readily available third basemen are better than the readily available outfielders, so it’s more than likely you’re not too concerned about Gordon losing his third base eligibility since you probably have him starting in the outfield already. Loss of roster flexibility is not a big concern here.

Gordon’s value: Remains the same

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#55: Do you know who Zack Cozart is?

By on November 4, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Back on July 18 I published a post called “Drop This, Add That: Five Moves a Winning Manager Makes.” Move number three suggested dropping Ian Desmond and adding Zack Cozart. That little piece of advice came three and a half months into the season after Cozart had played just six major league games. That’s how much I liked him.

Unfortunately, Cozart went on to play just five more games after that post before his season was officially over due to unavoidable right elbow surgery. All reports I’ve read seem to indicate that Cozart will be ready to play by opening day, and with the offensively inept Paul Janish his only competition for the Reds starting shortstop job, it appears Cozart will get a chance to make one lucky fantasy owner in your league very happy. If you heed my advice here, that owner will be you.

Question number 55 in our Top 100 Offseason Questions bluntly asks, “Do you know who Zack Cozart is?” If you hadn’t heard of Cozart before that short, two paragraph intro, you’ll know exactly who he is and how good he can be in just a few minutes.

Why should you care who Zack Cozart is?

Ok, so the heading above asks a pretty stupid question — you should know who every player is on an opening day MLB roster, especially the starting players — but the larger point I’m trying to make is that there are so few quality shortstops that it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Cozart to emerge as a top 10 player at the position by the end of the season. A top 10 player is someone who should be regularly starting for a fantasy team in any league. That’s someone worth noting.

And consider for a second how volatile the end-of-season rankings at shortstop are. Last year’s top 10 shortstops looked like this by the time the Red Sox and Braves had finished their respective collapses:

  1. Troy Tulowitzki
  2. Jose Reyes
  3. Asdrubal Cabrera
  4. Starlin Castro
  5. Elvis Andrus
  6. Jimmy Rollins
  7. Jhonny Peralta
  8. Emilio Bonifacio
  9. J.J. Hardy
  10. Erick Aybar

Tulo, Reyes, Andrus, Castro and Rollins were near-locks (barring injury) to land somewhere near the top of the end-of-season rankings. Cabrera sort of came out of nowhere, Peralta and Hardy had reclamation seasons for the ages, and Aybar and Bonifacio are borderline fantasy starters that landed where they were because of gaudy steal totals (I’m not buying Bonifacio’s .296 average).

If there’s even a chance that Cozart can break out — and the numbers say there’s a real chance — then he could end up paying big dividends at a shallow position.

What are Cozart’s strengths?

Solid power and speed without a big hit in batting average. I mean seriously, how many times do you get a chance to draft a well-rounded middle infielder that can hit for some pop and steals some bases and not kill you in batting average…especially at shortstop! I love Danny Espinosa because of his power/speed combo and I made sure to draft him last season, but I knew a .250 average was about the best I could expect (and he didn’t even reach that). Cozart can contribute everywhere.

First, consider his pop. While he’s not to be mistaken for Tulowitzki, Cozart has a solid track record of decent pop in the minors as the chart below shows us.

I’ll admit that 10-15 home runs per 500 at-bats isn’t anything to go crazy over, but only five of 2011′s top 10 shortstops hit more than 10 home runs so it’s possible to rank well without gaudy power numbers. At least Cozart gives you something here.

Can he run?

Honestly, I don’t really know what to expect from Cozart’s legs. He stole 30 bases during a full minor league season in 2010 and was on pace for 15-18 in a short season at triple-A last year, but that was the first time he’d really ever run.

Do the Reds like to run? The numbers wouldn’t necessarily say so as only two players stole at least 10 bags last season, Drew Stubbs (40) and Brandon Phillips (14), but a quick glance at the Cincinnati roster shows very few men I’d describe as fleet of foot. Joey Votto has some speed but he’s averaged 12 steals over the last two seasons. Jay Bruce had speed back in single-A (19 steals in 2006) but his eight last season were a new career high. After those guys you had lead-footed wonders like Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cairo, Jonny Gomes and Cozart’s competition, Janish. Some of them had speed eons ago, but they don’t anymore.

So I think Cozart will have a chance to run. And I think 15 steals is a pretty attainable number.

What kind of season could we see in 2012?

That leaves us with a potential 15-homer, 15-steal season from a guy who has a track record of putting the bat on the ball (about a 16%-18% strikeout rate in the minors), which should lead to about a .280 average in the majors. Plus, in the 11 games Cozart started last season, he batted second in 10 of them. If he’s getting on base (.280ish average, .340ish OBP are possible) ahead of Votto and Bruce, the kid’s going to score runs.

Would I be surprised to see Cozart finish with a .280 average, 80 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBI and 15 steals? Not in the least. I’m not going to sit here and project that season from him because there are a lot of numbers to crunch between spring training and today (those projections will be part of our first annual draft guide!), but my point is it’s not crazy to think that kind of season could happen.

Last season Howie Kendrick finished the year with a .285 average, 86 runs, 18 home runs, 63 RBI and 14 stolen bases, numbers that are just slightly better than our hypothetical Cozart line. That season was good for 82nd-best among all fantasy players last year, so let’s say Cozart’s hypothetical line ranks a little worse than that. Let’s say it ranks 90-100th. That 90-100 ranking would have made him the eighth-to-10th best shortstop last season, ahead of Hardy, ahead of Aybar, ahead of Derek Jeter and ahead of Alexei Ramirez. I’m not saying Cozart is a lock for a top-10 season among shortstops next year. I’m just saying you should know who he is.

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