Archive | October, 2011

BaseballProf’s Top 100 Offseason Questions

Here’s Baseball Professor’s official list of 100 questions to answer this offseason. And guess what? We’re actually going to answer them. Read on below and make sure to subscribe to our feed or get our email updates to get the answers to each of these questions and more!

In addition to these 100 questions, we’ll also answer select questions from our readers. If you have a question you need answered, email us at contact@baseballprof.com or tweet us @BaseballProf!

  1. Second base seems to be a surprising hotbed for power. In standard Yahoo! leagues 12 second basemen had 18 or more home runs compared to only 11 third basemen. Will we be able to find that power again at second base next year?
  2. How much do pitchers like Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda and Doug Fister (pre K-boom) hurt your team due to lack of strikeouts?
  3. Is Danny Espinosa‘s HR/SB combo worth the hit in batting average?
  4. Should we expect more than a .273 average and 12 home runs from Neil Walker?
  5. Brett Jackson posted a 20/20 season in the Cubs minor league system and should be up and ready to contribute in 2012. How much value will he bring during his likely rookie season?
  6. Brian Wilson struggled with his control (note: I mean with walks and not with his, let’s call it interesting personality) in 2011. Can he be counted upon in 2012 as an elite closer?
  7. David Price took a step back in 2011. Is he a legitimate fantasy ace?
  8. Is Ryan Roberts really a borderline top 10 third baseman?
  9. How will Clay Buchholz rebound after missing the majority of 2011 with a stress fracture in his back?
  10. Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia in 2012?
  11. With so many steals available on the waiver wire and with late-season call-ups making an impact every year, how valuable is a player like Michael Bourn?
  12. How should we feel about Alex Rios?
  13. Is Brandon Phillips once again a top five second baseman?
  14. Where does Freddie Freeman rank among first basemen?
  15. None of the top preseason closers finished atop the position with the exception of Mariano Rivera. Remind us again. Why shouldn’t we pay for saves?
  16. Carlos Beltran stayed healthy for all of 2011 and earned himself a trade to a contender. How much can we rely on him to produce in 2012?
  17. Which catcher should you draft first: Alex Avila or Miguel Montero?
  18. Starlin Castro batted .300 with 10 home runs and 22 steals last season as a 21-year-old shortstop. How high is the limit with this guy?
  19. Jon Lester definitely took a step backward with every bite of fried chicken. Can we expect a bounce-back season or is him becoming a top five pitcher a pipe dream?
  20. Aside from obvious names like Matt Moore (TB), Mike Trout (LAA), Julio Teheran (ATL), Drew Pomeranz (COL) and Brandon Belt (SF), which rookie might make an impact starting on Opening Day?
  21. Will Drew Stubbs rebound to hit 20 home runs?
  22. How does a full season of Jemile Weeks rank among second basemen?
  23. Anthony Rizzo couldn’t have played much worse in his debut season with the Padres (.141, 1 HR, 9 RBI in 49 games). Is he worth drafting?
  24. Charlie Blackmon has a solid minor league track record and succeeded once called up before slumping and then getting hurt. Is he worth a flier in 2012?
  25. Ricky Romero took another step forward (as I expected) in 2011. Has he hit his ceiling?
  26. Michael Morse had a breakout year this past season. Should we trust him with a repeat performance?
  27. Justin Morneau‘s career has been derailed by concussion related problems. How should we value him in 2012?
  28. Ryan Vogelsong will be a tough player evaluate entering 2012. Where should be be drafted?
  29. Will Howie Kendrick ever hit 20 home runs?
  30. Will Matt Holliday improve on his 75 RBI in 2011? Yes, but by how much?
  31. Can we expect bounce back seasons from Jayson Werth and/or Carl Crawford?
  32. In 2011, Ivan Nova had 16 wins while Tim Lincecum only managed 13. How random is wins as a category?
  33. Speaking of Ivan Nova, his second-half stats were pretty incredible (8-0, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Is this a sign of things to come?
  34. Is Carlos Santana the top-ranked catcher?
  35. J.J. Hardy hit 30 home runs last year, which was tied for the league lead among shortstops. What do we make of this power surge?
  36. Derek Jeter got the average back in 2011, but now can he get the power back?
  37. Why did Martin Prado bat .260?
  38. With Ramon Hernandez done in Cincinnati, will Devin Mesoraco become the team’s top catcher?
  39. Five players could all legitimately finish the season as the top-ranked first baseman: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Which will it be?
  40. In what order should Dan Haren, Matt Cain, James Shields and CC Sabathia be drafted?
  41. Adam Dunn. There’s no question needed here. But in all seriousness is he even worth a mid-to-late round flier next year?
  42. Will Andre Ethier be the 30/100 player he was in 2009?
  43. Outfield is a very top-heavy position with players like Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Curtis Granderson and Matt Holliday all potential top 20 draft picks. But how deep is the outfield position compared to others?
  44. How legit is Michael Morse and is he a top 10 OF next year?
  45. What happened to Michael Young’s power?
  46. Madison Bumgarner was probably one of the more undervalued starting pitchers in 2011. Who would you compare him to so that his value is recognized?
  47. How much value does Pedro Alvarez have?
  48. Will Curtis Granderson continue to hit lefties?
  49. Which Francisco Liriano will we see?
  50. Brett Lawrie looks like the real deal. Is he destined to be one of the next great third basemen?
  51. Dustin Ackley struggled once pitchers adjusted to him. Can he make the necessary adjustments in his sophomore season to become a top 10 second baseman?
  52. Now a full season removed from Tommy John surgery, what can we expect from Joe Nathan?
  53. C.J. Wilson is a free agent this offseason after pitching like an ace in a hitter’s haven. How should we value him in 2012?
  54. Craig Kimbrel struck out 127 batters, which was more than Jordan Zimmermann, Jeremy Hellickson and Johnny Cueto. How valuable is this guy?
  55. Do you know who Zack Cozart is?
  56. Jacoby Ellsbury jumped from eight and nine home runs in 2008 and ’09 to 32 in ’11. Is his power sustainable?
  57. Jose Valverde didn’t blow a save in 49 opportunities. Should he be considered a slam dunk as one of the first closers off the board in 2012?
  58. David Ortiz‘s status in Boston is uncertain at best as of October. What kind of value does he have in 2012 (obviously pending the team he ends up with)?
  59. Will Jhonny Peralta repeat his .299/21/86 line?
  60. Jason Kipnis torched AL pitching during his 36 game stretch with Cleveland in 2011 before hurting his hammy in mid-August. Seven homers in 36 games is a bit much, but what kind of power does he have?
  61. J.P. Arencibia was a borderline top-10 catcher in 2011, but with 23 home runs he should have ranked higher. Will he improve upon his .219 average?
  62. With hitting on the decline across the league, are save chances on the rise? If so, what does this mean when you’re drafting your closers?
  63. Lance Berkman was a terrific comeback story in 2011. Can we expect a repeat in 2012 now that he’s on the wrong side of 30?
  64. Jose Bautista batted .334 with 31 home runs before the All-Star break. After the break he hit .257 with 12 home runs. Should he still be drafted first overall?
  65. With Sergio Santos emerging as the White Sox closer (reinforced by the three-year deal signed in October, 2011), Chris Sale will be heading to the rotation. Can he succeed?
  66. Kelly Johnson rebounded to hit .270 in his 33 games with Toronto after a disappointing season in Arizona. After ranking 14th among second baseman in 2011 (ranked fifth in 2010) where does he fit at the position in 2012?
  67. How close will Michael Pineda come to being a fantasy number one in 2012?
  68. From 2008-2010, John Danks was as consistent as any starter in the league. His 2011 season was easily his worst since his ’07 rookie campaign. What gives?
  69. If Kendrys Morales returns to the Angels next year fully healthy, where does that leave Mark Trumbo?
  70. Dee Gordon batted .304 with 24 steals in just 56 games for the Dodgers, playing well enough for LA to jettison oft-injured Rafael Furcal to St. Louis. Even without the power, where does Gordon rank among MLB shortstops?
  71. 2011 was a disaster for Hanley Ramirez. With another shoulder surgery to recover from in the offseason will Hanley regain his form and become an elite shortstop once again?
  72. Team Desmond Jennings or Team Mike Trout for 2012?
  73. Ryan Dempster‘s ERA, WHIP in batting average against all rose significantly this past season. Is age finally catching up with the Cubs right-hander who’ll turn 35 one month into the 2012 season?
  74. What will the Yankees do with Jesus Montero and what does that mean for his fantasy value?
  75. I have to ask it, is B.J. Upton underrated? He’s a borderline 20/40 player!
  76. Jeremy Hellickson‘s strikeouts per nine dipped from 8.17 to 5.57 in 2011. Will the strikeouts come back?
  77. Is Ryan Braun the number one overall pick in 2012?
  78. How well do pitchers come off Tommy John surgery? Should we feel confident about Adam Wainwright‘s return next year?
  79. Ike Davis played just 36 games in 2011, but they were a very good 36 games. What should we expect from him?
  80. Everyone’s asking it, so how good is Doug Fister? Can he repeat his 7.29 K/9 with Detroit?
  81. How much value does Colby Rasmus have now that he’s in Toronto?
  82. Cory Luebke pitched great as a starter for the Padres (3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 111 K in 100 2/3 innings). When should you think about drafting him?
  83. After having an ERA under 2.00 in 2010, Joakim Soria‘s ERA last year was over 4.00. Is this a one year blip or a sign of things to come?
  84. Chone Figgins never hit for power but at least he stole 40-plus bases. After stealing 11 bags last season, is there any hope for him in 2012?
  85. The Royals had an All-Star trio in the outfield in 2011. Who between Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur will repeat? Who is most likely to bust?
  86. Logan Morrison hit 21 more home runs in 2011 (23 to 2), but will he be the complete package in 2012?
  87. Gio Gonzalez lowered his ERA (3.23 to 3.12) and increased his strikeouts (171 to 197) last season in about the same number of innings. Is there still room for improvement or are his 2011 stats the best we’ll see?
  88. Matt Moore definitely showed flashes of what he’s capable of, will anyone compete with him for baseball’s top rookie pitcher in 2012? Julio Teheran? Drew Pomeranz?
  89. After a down year and some major injuries from big names at first base, has third base caught up?
  90. Alexei Ramirez had a career-high 614 at-bats last season but saw his per-game production and overall numbers fall across the board? How much should we expect him to improve?
  91. Asdrubal Cabrera looked like the second best shortstop for the first half of the year before faltering in the second half. Which Asdrubral will show up in 2012?
  92. How much does losing third base eligibility affect Alex Gordon‘s value?
  93. It’s easy to forget about Buster Posey, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you do it on draft day. Where does he rank among all catchers?
  94. Is Carlos Gonzalez a top five outfielder?
  95. Is Stephen Strasburg (on an innings limit) a top 20 pitcher in 2012?
  96. Have we seen the end of Ichiro Suzuki?
  97. Paul Goldschmidt hit eight home runs in 157 at-bats last season, a rate which would have him pushing 30 dingers over a full year. With a high strikeout rate and some speed (4 SB), when should you think about drafting Goldy Knocks?
  98. Vance Worley, everyone’s favorite spot starter, will look to prove that his 11-3 record and 3.01 ERA were no fluke. Will he do it?
  99. Eric Hosmer had a terrific rookie campaign in 2011. Is he primed to jump into the top tier of first basemen?
  100. Chase Utley isn’t the player he used to be, but where does he rank among MLB second basemen?
Read full story · Comments { 12 }

BaseballProf's Almost-End-Of-World Series Update

It’s been awhile since you’ve heard from us here at Baseball Professor, but that doesn’t mean the behind-the-scenes work came to a hault. Here are some things we’ve done since you last saw us:

  • Completed the SportsProfs Fantasy Sports Network which you can find at www.sportsprofs.com. On our main site you’ll see all of our updated posts from both Baseball Professor and Football Professor as well as our most recent tweets which George Fitopoulos does a great job of updating (especially on NFL Sundays). You can follow us @BaseballProf and @PigskinProf if you ever need some quick advice.
  • Completed our rough ranking of the top 200 players for 2012 fantasy baseball. We’ll be releasing these players with 200 individual posts starting around the holidays and leading up to draft time.
  • Begun work on our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which will be available in the spring of 2012. In combination with our top 200 posts series, this will be one of the most comprehensive fantasy draft guides available. We’re even working on our state-of-the-art Blob Rater, which will help you get a quick, yet complete look at any player in the league. Sounds awesome, right?
  • Compiled our official list of offseason questions, aptly named BaseballProf’s Top 100 Offseason Questions. Over the next five months we’ll use these 100 questions as the backbone of the research work we’ll be doing to prepare you for 2012. These questions range from player-specific queries such as “Is Danny Espinosa’s HR/SB combo worth the hit in average?” to more in-depth probations such as “With hitting down across the league, are save chances on the rise?” You won’t want to miss our answers to any of these (and if you subscribe to Baseball Professor, you won’t have to!).

So don’t put your fantasy team on the back burner just because the year is almost over. Stay tuned here at Baseball Professor for up-to-date fantasy baseball advice while the hot stove is keeping us warm, and stay tuned at SportsProfs.com for your fantasy football coverage, too.

Remember, champions know there’s never an offseason.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Preseason Predictions Revisited: NL East

This post represents the two-thirds mark of our Preseason Predictions Revisited series and while we haven’t done too awfully forecasting an entertaining 2011 season, there have been a few predictions we’ve missed badly on. Hindsight is 20/20, but it’s also pretty hilarious. Let’s see what other awful prognostications we missed on, this time focusing on the NL East.

48. Craig Kimbrel will claim the closers role for the Braves by May and strikeout 100 batters. His K/9 was an astonishing 17.42 last year in 20.2 innings.

  • Kimbrel recorded his first of 46 saves back in March and never looked back. Those saves and his ridiculous 127 strikeouts (not to mention his 2.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP) made Kimbrel the game’s best closer in 2011.

49. Chipper Jones will play in 140 games and bat .300 with 20 home runs and 80 RBI, providing great value for those fantasy owners who took a chance on him.

  • Chipper played in 126 games and hit .275 with 18 homers and 70 RBI. Over 140 games that line improves to 20 homers on 78 RBI so on a per-game pace Chris was right on target.

50. Dan Uggla will disappoint with a batting average in the .250s. A low line-drive percentage and a lack of speed didn’t support his career high .330 BABIP last year.

  • “Disappoint” would be putting his first half nicely, and overall his .233 average fell below Chris’ range. How the heck did this guy put that hit streak together?

51. Mike Minor may not have won a rotation spot out of spring training but he’ll still contend for the NL rookie of the year. In 40.2 innings last year his K/9 was an impressive 9.52 and he showed good control (2.43 BB/9).

  • Umm, we meant Brandon Beachy.

52. Anibal Sanchez will have more strikeouts than teammate Josh Johnson. He finally pitched close to 200 innings last season and has no health questions entering the year. He had a K/9 of 7.25 last year and he threw harder than any other year of his career, averaging a career best 91.3 MPH on his fastball.

  • Sanchez’s K/9 jumped from 7.25 to 9.26 as he racked up 202 punchouts. Even if Johnson didn’t get hurt those 202 Ks probably would have been enough to top the Marlins ace anyway. Johnson’s career best is 191 strikeouts.

53. Logan Morrison will hit 10 times as many home runs as last year. Although he only hit two home runs in 244 at-bats he did have 20 doubles and seven triples. At 6-foot-3 and 237 pounds there’s definitely more room for him to grow in the power department.

  • Chris hit a home run on this prediction. Morrison hit 11.5 times as many home runs as last year in twice as many at-bats.

54. Ricky Nolasco’s ERA will be under 3.50. The average pitcher had a K/BB ratio of 2.17 last year while Nolasco’s was 4.45. Sure, home runs are a problem for him but he let up a career high 28 in 2008 and he still had a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Plus, his K/BB ratio that year wasn’t as good as it was last year.

  • Nolasco finished with a 4.67 ERA and has officially landed on my “do not draft due to perennial disappointment” list.

55. Brad Emaus will have double digit home runs and stolen bases for the Mets. His on-base percentage in the minors the last two years was .402 and .395, respectively.

  • How about zero home runs and zero RBI. At some point you need playing time.

56. Jose Reyes will score 100 runs, steal 40 bases and hit double-digit home runs. He knows those numbers might make him baseball’s next $100 million man in the offseason.

  • Make it 101 runs, 39 steals and seven home runs. Those numbers were just a tick short of what Chris predicted, but his .337 average and overall good health will still make him baseball’s next $100 million man.

57. Lucas Duda will hit 15 home runs. Carlos Beltran is going to miss games and the Mets really like Duda’s bat. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound Duda hit 27 home runs last year in 509 at-bats last year splitting time between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors.

  • Beltran did not miss time and Duda was forced to wait until the All-Star Break before really getting a chance. He did manage 10 homers in 301 at-bats, but it’s not quite what we expected.

58. The news on Chase Utley is certainly ominous but he’s defied the odds before by returning from both hip surgery and thumb surgery earlier than expected. He gets 400-plus at-bats this year.

  • Utley finished with 398 at-bats, but while the at-bats were there, the production still wasn’t.

59. I’d rather have Cliff Lee pitching game seven of the World Series, but Cole Hamels will be the better fantasy pitcher. Their ERAs will be similar but Hamels will have a lot more strikeouts. He’s also younger and he doesn’t have chronic back problems.

  • Lee finished as the eighth-ranked starting pitchers. Hamels finished 20th. Their ERAs were similar (2.79 for Hamels, 2.40 for Lee), but Lee racked up the strikeouts as he K-ed 238 batters this year…over a batter an inning.

60. Jimmy Rollins will hit 20 home runs and steal 25 bases. He’s finally healthy after being plagued by injuries last year. The Phillies will need Rollins, who’s in a contract year, to come up big in a lineup missing Jayson Werth and Chase Utley.

  • I suppose 16 home runs and 30 steals (46 combined) is pretty close to what Chris predicted (45 combined).

61. Michael Morse will hit 25 home runs. He hit 15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year and he locked up a starting spot in left field after a strong spring. He’ll also bat fifth in the lineup behind Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche.

  • Morse exceeded 25 homers as he hit 31 with a .303 average. Those totals were pretty much in line with his per-game averages from 2010 so we may see more seasons like this from Morse in the future.

62. Jordan Zimmermann will have an era under 3.75, a WHIP in the 1.20s and 175 strikeouts. He’s over a year removed from Tommy John surgery and his fastball is back in the mid-90s.

  • Zimmermann was better than 3.75 and 1.20 (3.18 and 1.15) but he didn’t approach 175 Ks (just 124).

63. Nationals manager Jim Riggleman is using the dreaded closer by committee approach, but Drew Storen will end the year with 30-plus saves.

  • Jim Riggle-who? Storen saved 43 games. Just like the rest of these predictions, I’d say Chris did a pretty good job. Hopefully we did just as well with our NL Central predictions, but we’ll look at those next.
Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 MLB Closer Chart
  • About BaseballProf
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • xBA/xBABIP By Year
  • Contact
  • #TheseAreStats
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Buy/Sell
  • Daily Dozen
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • FAAB Five
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Power Rankings
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • Twice is Nice
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009