As promised, here’s the final installment in our five-part series ranking our top 100 keepers for the 2012 fantasy baseball season.
As always, players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.
If you have any quarrels with our rankings, let us know by leaving a comment below. You can also follow @BaseballProf or like us on Facebook to let us have it!
In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:
Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012
| Rank | Player | Age | Position | Professor's Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Bautista | 31 | 3B/OF | Could he repeat breakout '10? How about besting it; only 3B I feel 100% safe with |
| 2 | Troy Tulowitzki | 27 | SS | .300/30/100 with a handful of SB at a position without many certainties |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 32 | 1B | Became his old self when calendar turned to May |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | 27 | OF | Not sure he's a .300+ guy every year but I'll take .280 with a ton of everything else |
| 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | 29 | 1B | Expect him to hit 35+ HR in year 2 at Fenway |
| 6 | Hanley Ramirez | 28 | SS | Top 2 pick entering '11; very little has changed |
| 7 | Ryan Braun | 28 | OF | I didn't expect 30+ SB but everything else is what we thought; he's a stud |
| 8 | Justin Upton | 24 | OF | Over 50 HR/SB combined in '11; he's just 24 so there's room to improve |
| 9 | Joey Votto | 28 | 1B | HR numbers regressed to what we can expect (~30) but an all-around star |
| 10 | Miguel Cabrera | 28 | 1B | Numbers look almost identical to Votto's but Joey runs a little more |
| 11 | Robinson Cano | 29 | 2B | I wasn't sold on Cano as a 1st round pick but I have no problem with it now |
| 12 | Evan Longoria | 26 | 3B | Ultra-low BABIP (.238 right now) underscores forgettable season |
| 13 | Justin Verlander | 29 | SP | Any time a SP gets MVP consideration you know he's had a great year |
| 14 | Prince Fielder | 27 | 1B | BA isn't up there with Pujols/Votto/Cabrera so he falls just behind them |
| 15 | Carlos Gonzalez | 26 | OF | '11 numbers are what we should expect with good potential for more |
| 16 | Clayton Kershaw | 24 | SP | Move aside, Mr. Halladay; Kershaw will be elite for years to come |
| 17 | Roy Halladay | 34 | SP | Numbers in '11 look the same as '10, which is what I expect in '12 |
| 18 | Curtis Granderson | 31 | OF | I don't expect near-40 HRs in '12 but new approach at the plate has done wonders |
| 19 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 28 | OF | Scouts have raved about his strength and we're seeing it this season |
| 20 | Jose Reyes | 28 | SS | Health always a concern but he's a first-round talent when he plays |
I’m surprised that Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Matt Moore are nowhere to be seen in your top 100. Not big on rookies?
I can guarantee that without any setbacks they will certainly appear next year because I do like all of them, however this list is still about 50% projected performance in 2012.
Trout did garner consideration and if you wanted to slot him somewhere on the 80-100 list I wouldn’t argue with that.
Harper is no doubt a talent but he struggled in his brief stint at double-A and I don’t think he’ll be making significant impacts in Washington until 2013 at the earliest. Would you take him in the top 100 (first 8-10 rounds) of a keeper draft next season? Maybe. I suppose it depends on how many keepers your league has. I don’t think most leagues keep enough players for him to really be drafted over anyone listed in my top 100.
A serious case could be made for Matt Moore since he’s already been called up by Tampa, but I’m always skeptical about early returns on young starters in the AL East. Just ask David Price, Wade Davis, Ricky Romero and Brian Matusz. Price and Romero made it but it took a few years. Hellickson seems to be the exception to the rule (and much of his success is fueled by a low BABIP).
Would you rank those three in the top 100? And if you would, where would you put them?
I completely agree with you about Harper, and I would not touch him in the top 10 rounds of a keeper draft. However, with Moore and Trout, I definitely would take a chance on their upside and take them somewhere in rounds 8-10. Like you said with Strasburg, “Complete upside pick but boy, is there upside.” I was also surprised that Adam Wainwright was not in your top 100. I think that he will pick up right where he left off and I would take him take him over almost all of the pitchers in rankings 51-100.
I can tell you and I are having a lot of the same internal debates. My primary concern with Wainwright is how long it takes him to get back to 200 IP. His 2010 workload will probably be very light an I’d take Hellickson, Hudson, Beckett, Kennedy, etc over him…but it’s close.
great list, honestly one of the best I’ve seen, seems to be especially accurate for the scoring system of my long-term dynasty keeper league.
RE the top 100 keepers, I totally agree with you and would say that of Harper, Moore, and Trout only Trout should be considered in the top 100, but all 3 would break the top 150.
There are 3 more players from my personal list I’d like to mention. I think KungFuPanda should be considered in the 70-100 range based on his 2009 and (healthy) 2011 numbers. I am shocked not to find Posey on the list, and still have him easily as a top-3 catcher with #1 upside. Did I miss him or are the injury concerns too high? Jesus Montero is proving something too this year, and a Posada retirement would make him a top 100 keeper with Top-5 catcher upside next year if he can ease into the C position via the DH.
Glad to find your site, I’ll be back.
Hey Paul. Sandoval is another borderline guy. He’s the 162nd-ranked player right now and I’ll be completely honest…I’m not his biggest fan. If you want to add him, too, I’d have no qualms with that.
Posey was an omission that was actually corrected a little earlier today. If you head to our 2012 keeper rankings page (click the tab on the nav bar) you’ll see I slotted him in at 46 right ahead of Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer. Yup, I like him better than Mauer.
I had an in-depth discussion with one of the other writers for our site about Jesus Montero. I was 50/50 on putting him in the 90s but the other guy I spoke with was pretty strongly against it, so I decided to leave him off. He falls in that same group with Trout even though Montero’s early returns have been especially strong. The only issue is where does he play? If Posada retires soon he probably slides in at DH since I don’t think he has the skills to catch a ton (though he’d likely catch enough to retain eligibility).
Thanks for reading!
Where do you have guys like Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore and Kendrys Morales? All of them coming off pretty concerning injuries especially in a keeper league but all have so much potential if they can stay healthy. Also, where do you think David Ortiz will fall in the mix? He’s such a great hitter when he’s hot but the problem is obviously his eligibility only at DH/Utility. Do you see these guys going after the 10th round in 2012? Will Mark Trumbo have outfield eligibility in 2012? With Morales back i don’t see where else they can put him except maybe 3rd base.
Thanks for reading, Keith. We’ll start with the easiest one first:
1) Trumbo has played 11 games in the outfield with 0 starts this season. Depending on your league’s eligibility requirements he may qualify. With those 11 games played I think he has OF eligibility in Yahoo but I don’t think he does in ESPN.
2) I have pretty much given up on Morneau and Sizemore. Concussions are career-threatening injuries and Morneau has had some pretty serious ones. I don’t think he ever gets healthy again. I’d rather take a chance on Freddie Freeman for example. Sizemore has the illusion of being a good player, but he’s really not. He hasn’t hit over .268 in any of the last four seasons and (in my opinion) his great seasons were PED-induced. I have nothing but observation to back up that claim.
3) Morales is someone I would take a chance on. His cast is off and he’s doing physical therapy right now (and I’ve heard reports he’ll miss the start of 2012, too) but he has potential. Morneau and Sizemore are washed up and aren’t worth the risk. Morales is young and has hit at the major league level so he’s worth a risk.
4) It’s likely that Ortiz will be back in Boston next year, so I don’t see a reason why he should really fall off much from this season’s production. He’s hitting lefties, he’s not striking out, and he looks like an all-around great hitter. I have a hard time seeing him fall outside the top 100, but everyone else on this list definitely will.