Well here we are, the final day of the regular season (for most teams at least). Whether you came in first, last or somewhere in the middle it was one hell of a ride. There were definitely plenty of shockers with Jacoby Ellsbury not only leading the Red Sox in home runs (32), but becoming the team’s first ever 30/30 player and Adam Dunn out-producing his batting average (.159) with strikeouts (177). I don’t think that’s ever happened before. What about Ian Kennedy being tied for the most wins (21) in the National League with Clayton Kershaw? Or Matt Kemp making a run at the triple crown!

Baseball is a great numbers game, which is what makes it the best fantasy game to play, but no one is perfect at it. We all must keep learning every year and hopefully one day we crack the secret to eternal success in fantasy baseball (if there even is one), but until that time you are stuck with my silly observations. So here are some things that I learned from the 2011 baseball season: (Note: Keep in mind this was written before any games were played on the final day.)

Observation #1: Pitching is plentiful, but that doesn’t mean the top guys don’t matter.

If you thought last year was the year of the pitcher then 2011 was a step towards the decade of dominance for pitchers. This year, a whopping 16 pitchers had an ERA under 3.00, which is up from 15 last year, but only one pitcher accomplished the feat in 2007. Now does that mean that you should wait on pitching? At first glance, you would think yes because there are more fish available to catch in the proverbial sea so why should you waste an early pick on a pitcher? However, I learned this year that it’s better to go the other way and target top talent because they will separate you from the rest of the league in terms of pitching.

In the Professor’s league, I built a rotation of Clayton Kershaw (keeper), Cliff Lee (trade), James Shields (trade), Mat Latos (trade) and Tim Hudson (trade) and rode those guys all the way to championship week. Obviously other factors were part of the run, but my pitching set me apart from the rest of the teams. If you had a rotation consisting of an ace and then pitchers like Daniel Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Ivan Nova and Hiroki Kuroda you definitely had a good staff, but it would be more ordinary than extraordinary. Now obviously you can’t draft all of that top talent in pitching, which is why you must read on.

Observation #2: Streaming hitters (not pitchers) might be a better strategy than you think.

We always talk about streaming pitchers as a great strategy these days because of the abundance of options, especially in a 10-team league. It’s time to throw that strategy out the window. It’s a good strategy for maybe a certain week in a head-to-head league, but if you plan on doing it on a regular basis then you are going to get burned. Streaming hitters on the other hand is where it’s at. I won’t get into the draft strategy (that’s for next preseason), but I’m not saying to draft pitching over hitting next year. You know how I assembled my super staff? Trade hitting for pitching during the season. You assemble the hitting in the draft and trade it once you know think you know who is going to be good. Hey, if you read Baseball Professor in March/April you would have been turned on to guys like Shields, Kennedy and Josh Beckett early.

Here’s the reasoning for streaming hitters: It’s almost a hidden curse when you assemble too many good hitters on one team. You know the book called “Everyone Poops,” well everyone also slumps. Instead of benching a cold bat for a hot player off waivers, you are stuck starting a stud like Evan Longoria, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira and others because they can go off at any second. Now, I’m not saying it’s bad to have stars on your team (they are stars for a reason), but if you are an owner who pays close attention all year, you could be better off trading some of those stud hitters for an edge in pitching. As always, strategies are dependent on league size/style, but I find that this works for 10-team leagues and probably works better for head-to-head than roto.

Observation #3: Closers are still as unpredictable as ever.

The league leader for this year’s crop of closers? Jose Valverde, who at this time is a perfect 48 of 48 in save opportunities. Other names that eclipsed the 40-save mark were Craig Kimbrel, John Axford, J.J. Putz, Mariano Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen and Joel Hanrahan. Case closed.

Observation #4: Never rely on rookies!

A lot of rookies will have short-term value during a season, but you should never go into a year and expect a rookie to start for you every day. Even Eric Hosmer went through stretches where he wasn’t worthy of a starting spot, but if you picked him up and decided he was the guy you wanted to roll with then you were stuck with a .250 hitter with no power in the month of June. Of course, Hosmer was the exception this year because there was a lot more good than bad, but that was not the case for guys like Brandon Belt, Mike Moustakas and even Danny Espinosa (unless you didn’t mind the sub-.220 average for three months). On the pitcher’s side we saw a lot of first half success with guys like Michael Pineda, Brandon Beachy and Alexi Ogando, but only Beachy really carried it through to the end.

Observation #5: Injury history should be noted, but don’t overrate it.

This one hits home for your ol’ Professor George because I’ve been a long time owner of Ian Kinsler and despite my efforts to tout him as a great second baseman I would always be shot down with the same argument, “He’ll be lucky to play 130 games.” Well talent is talent and Kinsler definitely has it. If you draft him you should note that his injury history is there, but never bank on a player getting injured. If you like a player’s talent then draft him and have a backup plan in the draft as well. If he ends up getting hurt then you at least aren’t caught off guard, but if he stays healthy (like Kinsler did this year) then you probably got a nice bargain on draft day. Just remember that Jimmy Rollins led the league in plate appearances in 2009 after playing just 137 games in 2008, Rickie Weeks led in 2010 after just 37 games in ’09 and now Kinsler is third this year after just 103 games in ’10. Injuries aren’t always consistent.

Observation #6: Speed guys are EVERYWHERE.

The amount of speed that was available by the All-Star break was ridiculous this season. We had call ups like Ben Revere (34 SB/116 G), Tony Campana (24 SB/ 94 G), Desmond Jennings (19 SB/65 G), Dee Gordon (23 SB/55 G) and Jemile Weeks (22 SB/96 G) to name a few and several other rookies, like Espinosa (17 SB) and even Mark Trumbo (9 SB) running the bases effectively all season. To compare to last year, there were a total of 48 players that stole at least 20 bases this year (that doesn’t include Jennings’ 19 in 65 games), which is 13 more than in 2010. What this tells us is that you don’t need to draft speed-only guys early in your draft, just pay attention (read: #8) to who’s swiping the bases and snag them as needed.

Observation #7: If you pay attention, you will do just fine.

This is the most basic of all observations, but a lot of people don’t realize how much it can benefit them. In this day and age we have mobile alerts, emails, mobile apps, plenty of ways to check on our teams and league happenings. If someone drops Jennings or Stephen Strasburg you should know. If someone trades for a starting pitcher and leaves himself weak at third base, make him an offer to help fix that hole. If you have a replacement-level outfielder on your bench and he isn’t playing on typical slow Thursday drop him and pick up someone that’s playing. Don’t just sit around and wait. It’s the little things that separate owners over the season and if you missed the playoffs in a head-to-head league or lost by a couple of roto points you have to ask yourself if you did everything you possibly could to win. Hopefully the answer will be yes.

Do you agree with my observations? Do you think they suck? Have any observations of your own? Let’s have a conversation in the comments section! Remember, champions know that there’s never an offseason.

John Lackey didn’t implode on the mound at Yankee Stadium last night. He saved that for his post-game, locker room press conference. Apparently a media member sent him a text before his crucial outing against the Yankees. Lackey described the text as both “personal” and “over the line.”

Whatever. Lackey’s probably on his way out this offseason (that is, if someone is willing to take him for next to nothing).

As for tomorrow’s starts, check out the Matchup Ratings below to see who my formula likes (Anthony Bass vs. the Cubs) and doesn’t like (Bartolo Colon at Tampa Bay).

We’ve already recapped our 2011 preseason predictions for the AL West and AL Central, and now it’s time to see how our buddy Chris did with his AL East predictions. Fair warning, though — Chris already told me he knows his Red Sox predictions didn’t quite pan out as expected. To see where else he messed up (and hopefully a few places where he succeeded) read on below.

1. Matt Wieters will eclipse 20 home runs. With the additions of veteran hitters such as Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee, Wieters can relax and get back to what made him the highest-rated catcher prospect since Joe Mauer.

• I suppose this one depends on how you literal you are while reading the prediction. Wieters now sits at 20 homers, but the language reads “eclipse 20 home runs.” However you interpret it, Wieters has had a very solid season.

2. Brian Matusz will make a similar jump to the ones made by David Price and Clayton Kershaw in their second years. From August 1st on he had a 2.18 ERA.

• Not even close.

3. Kevin Gregg, the closer nobody ever wants, will save 23-plus games for the fifth straight year.

• This one is much more black and white than the Wieters conundrum. Gregg now has 22 saves and has regained the closer’s job of late after losing it to Jim Johnson for a little while. Who knows what’s going on in Baltimore’s bullpen. What I do know is that Gregg needs one more save or Chris is wrong again.

4. Carl Crawford will reach a .300 average, 100 runs, 20 home runs, 100 RBI and 30 stolen bases. He will also be the best outfielder this year.

• Adam Dunn was supposed to be good, too.

5. Adrian Gonzalez will not hit 40 home runs. It will take him some time to get used to American League pitching and the Green Monster will turn some would-be home runs into long singles.

• Nailed this one. He had just one home run in April and did not reach 40 for the season. Of course, Chris never said anything about a slow finish, but beggars can’t be choosers.

6. There will be no closer controversy in Boston; Jonathan Papelbon saves 40 games.

• In a contract year, Papelbon delivered. Unfortunately the Red Sox won many of their games by wide margins or — as we’ve seen this September —  they didn’t win at all.

7. John Lackey will win 15 games and have an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP in the 1.20s and 175 strikeouts. His posted a 3.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP with 88 strikeouts in 102 innings after the All-Star break last year.

• You win some, you lose some, and then sometimes you pick John Lackey to be an above average starter. If I’ve learned one thing about Lackey since he signed in Boston, it’s never bet on John Lackey.

8. Alex Rodriguez will hit 40 home runs for the first time in four years and owners will feel silly for barely making him a second round pick.

• “I feel silly again.” – Chris

9. Jesus Montero will not make an impact on the Yankees this year. However, he will make an impact on another team in the second half of the year.

• First, Montero did make and impact, and second, it was for the Yankees. Cold cheese.

10. Jorge Posada will hit 20 home runs as the Yankees primary DH. Another reason not to draft a catcher in the first five rounds unless you’re in a two catcher league or Mauer inexplicably falls to you.

• The 13 homers he hit could have been worse. His season rank (908) probably couldn’t have been.

11. Derek Jeter will bat over .300, proving that his .270 batting average last year was a fluke and not the sign of a declining skill set.

• Jeter still has a chance! He’s batting .297 right now, but he’s likely in decline.

12. John Jaso will rank third among catchers in runs, behind only Mauer and Victor Martinez. Jaso’s OBP last year was .372 and he’ll share leadoff duties on the Rays.

• We were all on the John Jaso train, but after a week he was bumped from the leadoff spot and was nary heard from again. Martinez did finish second as Chris predicted, but Carlos Santana was number one among catchers. Jaso’s 26 runs were good for 29th.

13. James Shields parties like its 2008. Despite an ERA of 5.18 last year, his xFIP was 3.72 and his K/9 was 8.28. Compare that to 2009 and 2010 when his K/9 was 6.70 and 6.84, respectively.

• Shields was better than 2008, and in the future we’ll be saying he partied like it’s 2011.

14. Jake McGee won’t be the Rays closer at the start of the year but he ends up with the most saves. Kyle Farnsworth has failed as a closer before and McGee showed his potential dominance as areliever in Triple-A last year when he posted a 0.52 ERA to go along with a K/9 of 14.02.

• Farnsworth held onto closing duties for just about the whole season. He finished with 23 saves to McGee’s…zero.

15. After hitting six home runs last September, Travis Snider will hit 25 this year.

• Snider spent about 25 days in the majors. OK, so that’s clearly exaggeration, but it wasn’t quite the year we expected from Snider.

16. Edwin Encarnacion, Snider’s teammate, hit eight home runs after September 1st. He will also hit 25 this year.

• Encarnacion got off to a slow start and has 17 home runs now, but he’s been a home run machine over the last two months, easily besting that 25-homer pace.

17. Brett Cecil will have an ERA under 3.75. If you take out his last five starts in September, his ERA would have been 3.76. He also lowered his walk rate from 3.66 in 2009 to 2.81 last year. Now in his second full year, Cecil shouldn’t tire as much in the second half.

• Cecil’s thrown 120 innings this year, but his 4.56 ERA isn’t quite what we expected. What I predict right now is that our NL predictions will pan out better…I hope.