Archive | August, 2011

5 Observations from Tuesday's Games

By on August 24, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

1. Aramis Ramirez is the hottest hitter in the league.

Entering play on Tuesday Ramirez was the 6th-ranked player in the league over the last two weeks. Last night he went 5-for-5 and has now hit safely in 12 straight games, batting .563 (27-for-48) during the streak with four homers and 14 RBI. His strikeouts are way down this month and he looks like a lock to top his season high for walks in any month as well. The Cubs are winning, Aramis is hitting, and even though the team is having another sub-par season, everything is as good as one could hope for in Chicago these days.

2. Welcome back, Shin-Soo Choo!

We all expected Cleveland to be hovering in the AL Central basement for most of the year, but even though they’ve been playing sub-.500 ball for the last couple months they’re still “just” six games out of the division lead. I’d be surprised if the Indians made any kind of September playoff push, but I’m even more surprised that they’ve had this kind of success in the midst of Choo’s year-long slump. Cleveland’s perennial 20/20 threat (no, not Grady Sizemore) was batting .244 with just five homers and 28 RBI when he hit the DL in late June, and now a month and a half later he finally looks like the guy the Indians have grown to love. Seriously, Cleveland fans love this guy like Isuro Tanaka. Since returning from the DL on August 12, Choo has hit safely in nine of 10 games and blasted two homers in a double-header against the Ms. If Choo is on free agency grab him now.

3. Mat Latos is in full stride.

Latos struggled for the better part of the first half, but those struggles are well in the past. The Padres ace has now strung together quality starts in 10 of his last 11 starts and now has a 2.45 ERA in 33 August innings. Best of all, his walk rate in August was about one third that of any other month before a mini implosion last night (four free passes) and his average velocity over this solid 11-start stretch is noticeably higher than at any point this season (though not at 2010 levels).

4. Jonathon Niese is immensely frustrating.

First of all, who spells their name Jonathon with a second “o” at the end? He’s one part ballplayer and one part summer car dealership sale (come join us at this week’s Jon-a-thon!). I desperately want to be able to own Niese. Whenever I watch him pitch or look at his stats I see so much potential. His ERA has been in the low-4.00s for three years now so he’s a serviceable middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets, but his 1.40-ish WHIP makes him unownable for fantasy purposes. If only he wasn’t so damn hittable. He allowed 10 hits to the Phillies in four innings, meaning he’s now allowed 10-plus hits in three of his last four starts. His career OBA is over .280, but his strikeout potential is so sexy I can’t look away.

5. John Mayberry Jr. is a cheap source of homers.

He’s not his father circa 1975 (.291/34/106) buy the littler Mayberry has 12 homers in 193 at-bats. Over a 500 at-bat season that works out to 32 bombs, so maybe he is like his father after all. His playing time will be sporadic at best with Raul Ibanez coming back from a minor groin injury and the Phillies pretty much loaded in the outfield and first base, but it looks like Charlie Manuel wants to get the youngster at-bats however he can and that means sneaky homers for the savvy fantasy manager.

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Rays, Red Sox Lead List of Easiest Remaining Schedules for Hitters

By on August 23, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

There’s about five weeks left in the fantasy baseball season which means playoffs are right around the corner in head-to-head leagues and end-of-season roto standings are starting to take shape. At this point we have a good idea of how each batter will perform, but much of their production is subject to how easy or difficult their remaining schedules are.

That’s why I decided to look at which teams have the easiest remaining schedules from a fantasy perspective. I went through every single game left in the MLB season and found out which teams’ offenses had the hardest challenges from here on out and which should face easier pitchers.

To do this, I used two factors: opponent’s pitching staff and home ballpark factors. Essentially I multiplied the team’s opponent’s ERA and home runs allowed per game by the respective park factor depending on where they were playing. For example, the Red Sox are squaring off against the Rangers this week in Arlington. Texas had a 3.74 team ERA entering last night’s play and the Ballpark in Arlington, long known as a hitter’s haven, has a 1.445 run park factor. Multiplying the two gives us a 5.405 run expectation for the Red Sox in each game in Arlington. The same was done with home runs.

Averaging the run expectation and home run expectation for each remaining game for each team gave me the following list. To make it easy to read, all numbers were converted to R+ and HR+. If you’re not familiar with the “+”statistics (like OPS+), they simply compare everything to league average. The Red Sox have a Run+ of 110 meaning their hitters have a 10 percent easier schedule than the league average. The Rangers have a R+ of 90, meaning their hitters have a remaining schedule that’s 10 percent more difficult than league average.

Go through and look at the schedules for any of the teams and see for yourself. Teams that play the majority of their games in hitter’s parks or against weak pitching staffs should be nearer the top. That said, here are some notable results:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Remaining Home Series: SD, COL, SD, PIT, SF, LAD

Remaining Road Series: @WAS, @SF, @COL, @LAD, @SD

Even though Arizona plays its home games at Chase Field, one of the game’s preeminent offensive venues, they play a lot of road series at the very difficult ballparks located in the NL West. When they are home, they host the Padres, Giants and Dodgers for four series, and all of those teams have top 10 pitching staffs thus far this season.

San Francisco Giants

Remaining Home Series: HOU, CHC, ARI, LAD, SD, COL

Remaining Road Series: @SD, @COL, @LAD, @ARI

The Giants aren’t known for their offense, but their hitters have the fourth easiest schedule from here on out. Even though their home ballpark rates dead last for offense (read: hardest for hitters), they face some easy pitching staffs at home in the form of Houston (29th in ERA), Chicago (28th), Arizona (19th) and Colorado (25th). When they do eventually leave their pitcher-friendly park, they get to face those easy Arizona and Colorado staffs once more, but this time they get to to it in ballparks that rank second and fifth, respectively, in terms of offense.

Texas Rangers

Remaining Home Series: BOS, LAA, TB, OAK, CLE, SEA

Remaining Road Series: @BOS, @TB, @SEA, @OAK, @LAA

The Rangers are generally synonymous with offense, but that may not be the case down the stretch. Don’t get me wrong, I would still love to own Michael Young, Mike Napoli or a healthy Nelson Cruz, but their remaining schedule ranks second hardest for both runs and home runs. Series against the Angels, Athletics and Rays won’t be easy as those are all top 10 pitching staffs and it’s always a tough time whenever you travel to Seattle, Oakland or Anaheim. Even Fenway ranks as a below average park in terms of home runs, although its wacky dimensions can make that stat a bit misleading. Statcorner.com tells us that Fenway Park rates as a 94 for home runs to right-handed batters but just a 79 for home runs to left-handed batters.

The rest of the results are below. Let me know what you think in the comments section!

TeamR+HR+Avg RAvg HR
Tampa Bay Rays1181234.651.15
Boston Red Sox1101244.331.16
Los Angeles Angels1081154.251.07
San Francisco Giants1081074.241.00
New York Yankees1051074.111.00
Cleveland Indians1041004.100.93
San Diego Padres104974.090.90
Chicago White Sox104994.080.93
Houston Astros103984.040.91
Cincinnati Reds1031014.040.94
Oakland Athletics1021024.010.95
Kansas City Royals1021054.010.97
Detroit Tigers1021034.000.96
Milwaukee Brewers1011003.990.93
Baltimore Orioles1011013.990.94
Pittsburgh Pirates1011053.990.98
Minnesota Twins1011033.980.96
Seattle Mariners1011023.970.95
Toronto Blue Jays991023.900.94
Washington Nationals98963.850.89
Philadelphia Phillies97983.810.91
St. Louis Cardinals97973.800.91
Chicago Cubs95983.720.91
Colorado Rockies94993.710.93
Atlanta Braves92873.630.81
Florida Marlins91903.590.83
Los Angeles Dodgers91853.560.79
New York Mets90903.560.84
Texas Rangers90843.530.78
Arizona Diamondbacks89813.500.75

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Rants and Raves: Mike Napoli's playing time

By on August 18, 2011 | Comments { 8 }

Allow me to get something off my chest.

It’s been happening all season and I’ve just ignored the issue, but recently my eyes have been opened. Mike Napoli needs to be in the lineup every day.

The Rangers have played 124 games so far this season and Napoli has seen action in 79 of them. That’s only 64 percent. Now take into account that Napoli was injured for 19 games this season and then came in as a pinch hitter in nine games and he’s started in just 67 percent of games he was healthy. You’ll find out soon why that is ridiculous.

If you extrapolated Napoli’s numbers over 135 games he would have 89 R/33 HR/84 RBI along with his current slash line of .294/.386/.592. I’m willing to bet that would make him fantasy’s top catcher seeing as he is currently ranked third on ESPN’s player rater. But alas, he won’t get to 135 games or 450 at-bats so why keep dreaming?

Recently he’s had the opportunity thanks to Adrian Beltre landing on the DL because of a strained hamstring. In those 24 games, Napoli has been playing every day and posted a .354/.418/.659 slash line with six home runs, 20 runs and 14 RBI. Not too shabby.

Well, as a Napoli owner why am I afraid that once Beltre comes back Napoli will go back to his normal take-a-day-off-every-third-game routine? Is it because Ron Washington is crazy? Do the Rangers know something about Napoli that no one else knows? Whatever the reason, it needs to stop. After Beltre left with his injury, the Rangers were playing Chris flippin’ Davis over Napoli! Really? He’s so 2009. He sucks!

The bottom line is that Napoli needs to play every day. And here’s why.

You’ll rest when you’re dead

Everyone assumes that just because Napoli is a catcher that he needs his rest. Well calm down there cowboy, Napoli can handle regular playing time and he’s showing it now. Also, ask any DH how rigorous four at-bats over three hours is. I stopped playing baseball in high school, but even I know that it’s probably more tiring to walk up three flights of stairs. But that’s just me. And I’m out of shape.

Splitting time between catcher, DH and first base would be fine—if he was playing every day—but freaking Mitch Moreland and his .780 OPS have been getting the nod over Napoli more often than not.

WAR, what is it good for?

Apparently the manager is a big Edwin Starr fan, because to him WAR is good for absolutely nothing.

Napoli has a 3.4 WAR, which ranks third among all catchers and is tied for 47th among all Major League hitters. Clearly, he has value when he’s in the lineup. Heck, only Ian Kinsler (5.3), Beltre (4.0) and Michael Young (3.6) have higher WARs than him. He’s the fourth most valuable hitter on his team for Pete’s sake! Get this man more at-bats!

Fielding the position

So we’ve covered that Napoli is not only a very good hitter, but that he is one of the Rangers’ better hitters this season. But still, you have to be able to field if you want to get consistent playing time. He has only started 37 games at catcher this year, but I’m not here to gripe about that. While Napoli is capable of fielding the catcher’s position just fine he isn’t a gold glover and never will be so if the Rangers want to play Yorvit Torrealba 67 percent of the time that’s fine with me. My problem is at 1B/DH—more specifically Moreland at first base.

When the Rangers have a full, healthy lineup Napoli and Moreland are forced to fight over first base duties. Before Beltre landed on the DL, it was Moreland getting the call every day and Napoli splitting time between the bench, catcher and 1B/DH. But why?

Let’s go back to the WAR argument for a second. Moreland’s mark is only at 1.2, or half of Napoli’s mark and it’s not like Moreland is flashing the leather at first base to make up for it. His UZR/150 is -0.5, which is better than both Young (-4.3) and Napoli (-6.3), but still just average. First base is the one spot on the field where you can sacrifice a little glove for a big bat.

More at-bats make Napoli owners happy

It’s understood that if you aren’t getting a lot of consistent at-bats it’s tough to get in a rhythm at the plate. Well, the same holds true for Napoli as his numbers after off days and after days he plays are significantly different. Take a look at the numbers: (click on image to enlarge)

 
The proof is in the slash lines. Napoli is a much better hitter this season when he is playing in consecutive games and I’m sure if you did this study for every part-time player you would find the same thing. And if you’re thinking that the Rangers are just saving Napoli for when they face left-handers, Napoli is actually slightly better against right-handers. And he’s better than Moreland against them as well. Sometimes the numbers need to do the talking. No excuses!

So in conclusion, I’m just one of many frustrated Napoli owners who have been shown the light that is consistent playing time over the course of the last month. Hopefully, when Beltre comes back the Rangers will be smart and split 1B/DH duties between only Young and Napoli and when Napoli plays catcher, sneak Moreland in for a couple games. Isn’t the goal to field your best lineup every night?

Do the right thing Texas.

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Expected Batting Average Version 2.0: Fixing the Speed Problem

By on August 15, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Back on August 1 I introduced a new stat that I had been working on called Expected Batting Average (xBA). My goal was to take into account all of the variables that make up a player’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to see whether or not their actual BABIP was a good representation of their expected BABIP.

Overall I think my first attempt was a pretty good starting point, but it still had some major flaws, not the least of which was its tendency to favor speed guys over their lead-footed brethren.

xBA version 2.0 fixes this problem.

The chart below shows the correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r-squared) for xBA v.2.0 as it compares to xBA v.1.0 and a couple other known metrics. I’m aware that comparing batting stats to pitching stats isn’t the ideal scenario, but let’s roll with this for a minute. By the way, click on that link for an explanation of what r and r-squared mean, but for a quick little lesson the closer each is to 1.0, the better.

These value were calculated comparing the actual batting average to the expected batting average for all players from 2008 through August 15, 2011 with at least 750 plate appearances over that three-plus year span.

So, what did I change? Instead of trying to calculate a player’s expected BABIP and then recalculating their batting average off that, I went much more basic by just looking for their expected batting average directly.

This allowed me to take into account a wider range of stats that affect a player’s batting average. Whereas eight stats were used to calculate expected BABIP, I used 15 to calculate xBA. They include the following:

  • BB/K
  • Speed Score
  • LD%
  • GB%
  • FB%-IFFB% (allows us to look only at outfield flies)
  • IFFB%
  • HR/FB
  • IFH%
  • Out of Zone Swing%
  • In Zone Swing%
  • Out of Zone Contact%
  • In Zone Contact%
  • Zone%
  • First Pitch Swing%
  • Swinging Strike%

The seven plate discipline stats were the main addition to my analysis. By looking for xBA directly instead of xBABIP and recalculatuing xBA off that, I could now take into account these plate discipline stats that provide great context for a player’s BABIP.

The second addition was actually a re-thinking of an original idea, using FB%-IFFB% instead of plain old FB%, which includes infield flies as well. Since we’re already using IFFB%, there’s no need to count them twice.

The r-squared values from the table above show the improvements made from xBA v.1.0, and they’re quite substantial at that. Here’s the up-to-date xBA v.2.0 database for all players with at least 20 plate appearances on the season (612 players).

Note: xBA is very helpful for players with very few plate appearances, which is why I included them in the table. These are the players that will see wild fluctuations in their actual averages and their xBA due to small sample sizes. From a fantasy perspective, xBA helps us determine who to buy and who to sell.

Browse the table below. My suggestion is to search for players on your fantasy team because you probably have been monitoring them all season and have an idea of how lucky or unlucky they’ve been.

Name BA-xBABAxBAPA
Brett Lawrie0.1520.3550.20333
Kyle Kendrick0.1430.2630.12023
Mike Leake0.1200.2440.12450
Jonathan Sanchez0.1040.2140.11030
Chris Dickerson0.0870.3210.23431
Bronson Arroyo0.0840.1430.05948
Chris Capuano0.0830.1000.01745
Adam Everett0.0730.2170.14467
Andy LaRoche0.0720.2470.175104
Brian Bogusevic0.0680.2880.22068
Juan Francisco0.0670.2110.14420
Jesus Guzman0.0650.3380.273139
Jose Molina0.0630.3110.248139
Desmond Jennings0.0630.3380.27594
Drew Sutton0.0620.3150.25360
Taylor Teagarden0.0590.2580.19933
Fernando Martinez0.0570.2270.17023
Jhonny Peralta0.0550.3090.254424
Eliezer Alfonzo0.0540.3330.27944
Peter Kozma0.0490.1760.12722
Allen Craig0.0480.3100.262131
Tony Cruz0.0470.2580.21169
Reed Johnson0.0470.3510.304186
Dexter Fowler0.0460.2670.221380
Ryan Sweeney0.0410.2900.249238
Wilson Betemit0.0400.2920.252284
Chase Headley0.0400.2920.252422
Jose Reyes0.0400.3360.296462
Osvaldo Martinez0.0390.1500.11120
Blake Tekotte0.0390.1820.14339
Tim Lincecum0.0390.0910.05255
Adrian Gonzalez0.0390.3520.313536
Jemile Weeks0.0370.2940.257254
Danny Worth0.0370.3000.26332
Aaron Cook0.0350.1740.13923
Jason Kubel0.0350.3040.269300
Mike Carp0.0350.3200.285140
Brian McCann0.0350.3030.268377
Josh Willingham0.0340.2460.212396
Hunter Pence0.0330.3110.278495
Ryan Zimmerman0.0330.2930.260268
Joe Inglett0.0330.2220.18927
Jason Repko0.0330.2450.212111
Yamaico Navarro0.0320.2500.21849
Victor Martinez0.0320.3250.293423
Alex Avila0.0310.2890.258392
Casey Kotchman0.0310.3350.304395
Jay Gibbons0.0310.2550.22462
Jimmy Paredes0.0300.2830.25349
Yovani Gallardo0.0300.2310.20159
Justin Upton0.0300.3060.276520
Mike McCoy0.0300.2340.20490
Jose Altuve0.0300.3330.30398
Shane Victorino0.0290.3130.284408
Nyjer Morgan0.0290.3170.288285
Alex Presley0.0280.3330.30593
Matt LaPorta0.0280.2430.215316
Stephen Drew0.0270.2520.225354
Kosuke Fukudome0.0270.2710.244410
Yonder Alonso0.0270.4210.39422
Alex Rodriguez0.0260.2950.269344
Ike Davis0.0260.3020.276149
Michael Morse0.0260.3210.295410
Bobby Wilson0.0260.1900.16473
Gerald Laird0.0260.2460.22079
Ronny Paulino0.0260.2930.267199
Tim Stauffer0.0250.1520.12752
Travis Hafner0.0250.2930.268291
Melvin Mora0.0250.2280.203135
Humberto Quintero0.0250.2680.243188
Steve Pearce0.0250.2130.188100
Robinson Chirinos0.0230.2350.21256
Alexi Casilla0.0230.2600.237365
Freddy Sanchez0.0220.2890.267261
Ross Gload0.0220.2530.23179
Pablo Sandoval0.0220.3100.288326
Carlos Quentin0.0220.2590.237466
Chase Utley0.0220.2780.256301
Rick Ankiel0.0220.2470.225287
Corey Patterson0.0210.2460.225375
Greg Dobbs0.0210.2940.273303
Ryan Ludwick0.0210.2400.219477
Cesar Izturis0.0210.2000.17933
Jack Cust0.0200.2130.193270
Alex Gordon0.0200.2980.278534
Justin Ruggiano0.0200.2550.235100
Dillon Gee0.0200.1350.11542
Edwin Encarnacion0.0190.2870.268375
Cameron Maybin0.0190.2760.257429
Daniel Murphy0.0190.3200.301423
Eli Whiteside0.0190.2230.204187
Colby Rasmus0.0180.2420.224447
Daniel Hudson0.0180.3270.30959
Marcus Thames0.0180.1970.17970
Jed Lowrie0.0180.2640.246234
Andruw Jones0.0170.2420.225137
Joe Mather0.0170.2130.19683
Carlos Santana0.0170.2360.219473
Clayton Kershaw0.0160.2410.22562
Felix Pie0.0160.2240.208171
Matt Holliday0.0160.3110.295392
Brendan Ryan0.0160.2630.247406
Henry Blanco0.0160.2370.22183
Casper Wells0.0150.2750.260166
Jhoulys Chacin0.0150.1670.15254
Seth Smith0.0150.2850.270404
Paul Konerko0.0150.3110.296484
DJ LeMahieu0.0140.2430.22937
Casey Blake0.0140.2580.244212
John McDonald0.0140.2480.234175
Rene Tosoni0.0130.2050.19278
Peter Bourjos0.0130.2680.255386
Delmon Young0.0120.2660.254325
Josh Reddick0.0120.3140.302171
Darwin Barney0.0120.2930.281418
Andres Torres0.0120.2280.216328
Jarrod Saltalamacchia0.0120.2530.241278
Eric Chavez0.0120.2930.28192
George Kottaras0.0120.2320.22077
Buster Posey0.0120.2840.272185
Tyler Flowers0.0110.3000.28923
Carlos Ruiz0.0110.2590.248338
Blake DeWitt0.0110.2620.251193
Carlos Corporan0.0110.1830.172119
Chris Snyder0.0110.2710.260119
Yadier Molina0.0110.2960.285378
Geovany Soto0.0110.2290.218355
Mike Napoli0.0110.2880.277280
Emilio Bonifacio0.0110.2850.274443
Aaron Miles0.0100.2910.281345
Matt Joyce0.0100.2810.271388
Jim Thome0.0100.2430.233213
A.J. Ellis0.0090.2220.21356
Ricky Nolasco0.0090.0750.06652
Michael Bourn0.0080.3040.296532
Chris Iannetta0.0080.2370.229348
Dustin Ackley0.0080.2970.289198
Chipper Jones0.0080.2720.264363
Starlin Castro0.0080.3110.303530
Rene Rivera0.0070.1810.17478
Troy Tulowitzki0.0070.3010.294502
Willie Harris0.0070.2400.233195
Scott Hairston0.0070.2580.251132
Marlon Byrd0.0070.3050.298332
Jerry Hairston0.0070.2550.248264
Lonnie Chisenhall0.0060.2380.232110
Pete Orr0.0060.2380.23269
Nate McLouth0.0060.2280.222321
Rajai Davis0.0060.2380.232338
Johnny Damon0.0060.2610.255481
Ruben Tejada0.0060.2540.248224
Shelley Duncan0.0060.2460.240128
Pat Burrell0.0060.2330.227202
Bobby Abreu0.0060.2540.248474
Grady Sizemore0.0060.2370.231257
Brett Wallace0.0050.2680.263359
Billy Butler0.0040.2840.280496
Jose Bautista0.0040.3110.307478
Jason Michaels0.0040.2000.196141
Jeff Francoeur0.0040.2720.268501
Michael Young0.0030.3330.330514
Danny Valencia0.0030.2450.242460
Wilson Ramos0.0030.2450.242326
Aubrey Huff0.0030.2490.246469
Edgar Renteria0.0030.2450.242242
Andrew Brown0.0030.1820.17922
Justin Smoak0.0020.2200.218410
Jeff Baker0.0020.2880.286170
Rod Barajas0.0020.2200.218245
Ryan Doumit0.0020.2770.275125
Mark Hamilton0.0020.2130.21151
Brooks Conrad0.0020.2350.233101
Josh Harrison0.0020.2630.26198
Carlos Beltran0.0020.2840.282465
Charlie Blackmon0.0020.2550.253102
Alex Cora0.0010.2270.226146
Ronny Cedeno0.0010.2520.251342
Joe Mauer0.0010.2840.283246
John Mayberry0.0010.2510.250186
Dustin Pedroia0.0010.3100.309544
Lucas Duda0.0010.2760.275200
Travis Snider0.0010.2250.224202
Alberto Callaspo0.0010.2910.290413
Vladimir Guerrero0.0000.2760.276409
Juan Miranda0.0000.2130.213202
Aaron Rowand0.0000.2430.243333
Josh Wilson0.0000.2660.26669
Chris Heisey0.0000.2490.249242
Yorvit Torrealba0.0000.2830.283331
Todd Helton0.0000.3070.307426
Bill Hall0.0000.2110.211199
Eric Hosmer0.0000.2750.275384
Juan Rivera-0.0010.2640.265362
Ian Desmond-0.0010.2320.233449
Ben Zobrist-0.0010.2770.278507
Jayson Nix-0.0010.1690.170151
Josh Collmenter-0.0020.1740.17630
Gordon Beckham-0.0020.2440.246404
Franklin Gutierrez-0.0020.2220.224260
Will Venable-0.0020.2640.266297
Jorge Posada-0.0020.2370.239322
Jeff Keppinger-0.0020.2960.298262
Ryan Raburn-0.0020.2320.234333
Craig Tatum-0.0020.2750.27758
Robert Andino-0.0020.2610.263326
Sean Rodriguez-0.0020.2120.214310
Mike Stanton-0.0030.2590.262466
Josh Bard-0.0030.2120.21555
Ian Stewart-0.0030.1560.159136
Yuniesky Betancourt-0.0030.2700.273430
Brett Gardner-0.0030.2830.286432
Rickie Weeks-0.0030.2720.275469
Daric Barton-0.0030.2120.215280
J.D. Drew-0.0030.2190.222271
Cody Ross-0.0040.2450.249344
Matt Kemp-0.0040.3200.324500
Miguel Cabrera-0.0040.3190.323513
Eduardo Nunez-0.0040.2640.268229
Aramis Ramirez-0.0040.2900.294472
Michael Brantley-0.0040.2700.274461
Jamey Carroll-0.0040.2950.299392
Vance Worley-0.0040.1940.19832
Wes Helms-0.0040.1910.195124
Orlando Hudson-0.0040.2460.250316
Conor Jackson-0.0040.2640.268346
Carlos Gomez-0.0050.2200.225233
Chris Carpenter-0.0050.1800.18558
Miguel Cairo-0.0050.2660.271217
Mark Ellis-0.0050.2390.244377
Nelson Cruz-0.0050.2670.272416
Jason Bay-0.0050.2480.253389
J.J. Hardy-0.0050.2700.275383
Clint Barmes-0.0060.2490.255351
Matt Downs-0.0060.2400.246147
DeWayne Wise-0.0060.1960.20260
Daniel Descalso-0.0060.2600.266317
Brent Morel-0.0060.2510.257292
Martin Prado-0.0070.2750.282420
Maicer Izturis-0.0070.2700.277400
Collin Cowgill-0.0070.1940.20135
Garrett Jones-0.0070.2440.251359
Tony Gwynn-0.0070.2540.261266
Jonathan Lucroy-0.0070.2850.292349
Randy Wolf-0.0070.1900.19744
Ben Francisco-0.0070.2220.229255
Carlos Lee-0.0070.2630.270486
Nick Markakis-0.0070.2840.291528
Mitch Moreland-0.0080.2670.275406
Lou Marson-0.0080.2190.227163
Jason Varitek-0.0080.2240.232197
Mike Wilson-0.0080.1480.15628
Eric Thames-0.0080.2710.279216
Ivan De Jesus-0.0080.1880.19635
Eric Sogard-0.0080.1850.19330
Wilkin Ramirez-0.0080.2310.23930
Blake Davis-0.0080.2680.27662
Matt Wieters-0.0090.2560.265404
Miguel Olivo-0.0090.2150.224378
Casey McGehee-0.0090.2390.248462
Danny Espinosa-0.0090.2250.234498
Skip Schumaker-0.0090.2920.301280
Chris Young-0.0090.2390.248515
Mitch Maier-0.0090.2530.26288
David Ross-0.0090.2670.276148
Denard Span-0.0090.2630.272293
Matt Diaz-0.0090.2650.274216
Chris Davis-0.0100.2410.251122
Xavier Nady-0.0100.2480.258223
Brian Bixler-0.0100.1930.20364
Yunel Escobar-0.0100.3000.310490
Brad Hawpe-0.0100.2310.241216
Carlos Gonzalez-0.0100.2820.292427
Ryan Theriot-0.0100.2720.282414
Endy Chavez-0.0110.3200.331188
Alexei Ramirez-0.0110.2660.277502
Corey Hart-0.0110.2720.283378
Josh Thole-0.0110.2600.271283
Jake Fox-0.0110.1880.19952
Tsuyoshi Nishioka-0.0110.2260.237198
Alejandro De Aza-0.0110.2580.26933
Austin Jackson-0.0110.2450.256481
Trevor Plouffe-0.0110.2020.213129
Jack Hannahan-0.0120.2140.226282
Jay Bruce-0.0120.2740.286486
Adam Jones-0.0120.2940.306494
Xavier Paul-0.0120.2690.281201
Nick Swisher-0.0120.2670.279474
Lou Montanez-0.0120.2390.25148
Ty Wigginton-0.0120.2550.267359
David Wright-0.0120.2630.275271
Craig Gentry-0.0120.2650.27797
Brandon Inge-0.0130.1770.190239
Ryan Adams-0.0130.2170.23025
Gaby Sanchez-0.0130.2690.282501
David Freese-0.0130.3190.332236
Brandon Phillips-0.0130.2850.298494
Ryan Braun-0.0130.3260.339457
Mark Reynolds-0.0140.2100.224463
Torii Hunter-0.0140.2550.269486
Jose Morales-0.0140.2670.28171
Michael Cuddyer-0.0140.2950.309469
Miguel Tejada-0.0150.2420.257322
Brennan Boesch-0.0150.2840.299447
Carlos Pena-0.0160.2210.237456
Jason Bourgeois-0.0160.3120.328176
Kevin Youkilis-0.0160.2670.283467
Mark Teahen-0.0160.1980.214138
Greg Halman-0.0160.2300.24691
Jason Pridie-0.0160.2350.251172
John Buck-0.0160.2270.243402
Joey Votto-0.0160.3180.334535
Russell Branyan-0.0160.1970.213135
Ramon Hernandez-0.0160.2980.314268
Asdrubal Cabrera-0.0160.2920.308514
Jeff Mathis-0.0170.1810.198226
Chris Denorfia-0.0170.2610.278289
Andre Ethier-0.0170.2990.316482
Jon Jay-0.0170.2920.309353
Marco Scutaro-0.0170.2790.296286
Andrew McCutchen-0.0170.2710.288514
Koyie Hill-0.0170.2080.225117
Edinson Volquez-0.0170.1500.16726
Eric Patterson-0.0180.1800.198104
Ryan Roberts-0.0180.2640.282417
Ezequiel Carrera-0.0180.2360.25499
Derek Jeter-0.0180.2780.296442
Ryan Howard-0.0180.2570.275511
Hideki Matsui-0.0180.2640.282422
Raul Ibanez-0.0180.2380.256453
Jerry Sands-0.0180.2000.218144
Orlando Cabrera-0.0180.2410.259399
Justin Morneau-0.0180.2220.240239
Paul Goldschmidt-0.0190.2680.28744
Zack Cozart-0.0190.3240.34338
Juan Uribe-0.0190.2040.223295
Jose Tabata-0.0190.2650.284297
Andy Dirks-0.0190.2630.282183
Jacoby Ellsbury-0.0200.3140.334541
Prince Fielder-0.0200.3050.325513
Juan Pierre-0.0200.2840.304525
Jonny Gomes-0.0200.2140.234304
Mike Aviles-0.0200.2380.258225
Alcides Escobar-0.0200.2540.274460
Melky Cabrera-0.0200.3110.331534
Joe Saunders-0.0200.1900.21045
Jack Wilson-0.0210.2440.265177
Neil Walker-0.0210.2670.288494
Josh Hamilton-0.0210.3010.322369
Gerardo Parra-0.0210.2920.313347
Jason Heyward-0.0210.2190.240344
Sam Fuld-0.0220.2430.265315
David DeJesus-0.0220.2310.253398
Travis Buck-0.0220.2280.250160
Brayan Pena-0.0220.2620.284212
Luke Hughes-0.0220.2330.255198
Matt Tolbert-0.0220.2070.229183
Mark Trumbo-0.0230.2540.277422
Drew Butera-0.0230.1700.193178
Miguel Montero-0.0230.2660.289410
Hanley Ramirez-0.0230.2430.266385
Derrek Lee-0.0230.2470.270383
Kila Ka'aihue-0.0230.1950.21896
Cliff Pennington-0.0230.2560.279420
Alex Gonzalez-0.0230.2330.256479
Shin-Soo Choo-0.0240.2420.266314
David Murphy-0.0240.2500.274296
Johnny Giavotella-0.0240.2890.31340
Nate Schierholtz-0.0240.2760.300336
Alfonso Soriano-0.0240.2470.271377
Omar Infante-0.0240.2790.303468
Mike Moustakas-0.0240.1840.208209
Jordan Lyles-0.0250.0870.11227
Milton Bradley-0.0250.2180.243115
Lyle Overbay-0.0250.2270.252392
Kelly Shoppach-0.0250.1830.208198
Michael McKenry-0.0250.2470.272158
Fred Lewis-0.0250.2420.267180
Angel Sanchez-0.0250.2510.276273
Alfredo Amezaga-0.0260.2030.22973
David Ortiz-0.0260.3000.326464
Chris Getz-0.0260.2560.282396
A.J. Pierzynski-0.0260.2960.322402
Adrian Beltre-0.0260.2760.302421
J.P. Arencibia-0.0260.2090.235360
Luis Valbuena-0.0260.1360.16222
Jimmy Rollins-0.0260.2650.291528
Josh Bell-0.0260.1430.16929
Paul Janish-0.0260.2250.251290
Brandon Wood-0.0270.2170.244227
Curtis Granderson-0.0270.2750.302514
Kurt Suzuki-0.0270.2300.257386
James Loney-0.0270.2590.286421
Omar Vizquel-0.0270.2450.272165
Eric Hinske-0.0280.2480.276229
Erick Aybar-0.0280.2590.287446
Jordan Zimmermann-0.0280.1890.21750
Matt Cain-0.0280.1060.13456
Coco Crisp-0.0290.2720.301441
Freddie Freeman-0.0290.2950.324480
Drew Stubbs-0.0290.2520.281527
Brent Lillibridge-0.0290.2600.289174
Eric Fryer-0.0290.2690.29829
Jonathan Herrera-0.0290.2460.275283
Scott Sizemore-0.0300.2330.263288
Justin Turner-0.0300.2660.296371
Ichiro Suzuki-0.0300.2690.299527
Adam Kennedy-0.0300.2410.271346
Luke Scott-0.0300.2200.250236
Aaron Hill-0.0300.2260.256404
Landon Powell-0.0300.1840.214109
Livan Hernandez-0.0300.2310.26152
Mark Kotsay-0.0300.2580.288215
Nick Hundley-0.0310.2380.269180
Carl Crawford-0.0310.2550.286384
Zack Greinke-0.0310.1940.22539
Lance Berkman-0.0310.2950.326425
Jayson Werth-0.0310.2250.256494
Ryan Dempster-0.0320.0730.10551
Roger Bernadina-0.0320.2470.279293
Aaron Harang-0.0330.1220.15544
Mike Nickeas-0.0330.2170.25026
Russell Martin-0.0340.2260.260365
Mark Teixeira-0.0340.2480.282517
Chris Stewart-0.0340.2140.248111
Adam Dunn-0.0340.1610.195408
Carlos Guillen-0.0340.2070.24189
Jason Bartlett-0.0350.2540.289478
Logan Morrison-0.0350.2490.284410
Francisco Cervelli-0.0350.2450.280106
Chris Coghlan-0.0350.2300.265298
Dave Sappelt-0.0360.2330.26930
Pedro Alvarez-0.0360.1970.233212
Carlos Peguero-0.0360.1960.232155
Scott Rolen-0.0370.2420.279269
Elvis Andrus-0.0370.2760.313492
Dan Uggla-0.0380.2310.269498
Kyle Blanks-0.0380.2350.27377
Placido Polanco-0.0390.2750.314383
Howie Kendrick-0.0390.2880.327423
Ryan Vogelsong-0.0390.2000.23945
John Jaso-0.0390.2220.261200
Domonic Brown-0.0400.2460.286209
Mike Fontenot-0.0400.2110.251176
Ramon Santiago-0.0400.2370.277172
Laynce Nix-0.0400.2550.295296
Hank Conger-0.0400.2140.254173
Derek Lowe-0.0410.1950.23652
B.J. Upton-0.0410.2250.266465
Michael Saunders-0.0410.1680.209152
Dan Johnson-0.0420.1150.15784
Alex Rios-0.0420.2120.254437
Albert Pujols-0.0420.2880.330473
Madison Bumgarner-0.0420.1280.17050
Brett Hayes-0.0430.2530.29697
Chris Gimenez-0.0430.1710.21450
David Cooper-0.0430.1210.16441
Willie Bloomquist-0.0440.2780.322272
Luis Rodriguez-0.0440.1710.21599
Jose Constanza-0.0440.3820.42661
Bryan Petersen-0.0440.2500.29488
Wilson Valdez-0.0460.2360.282217
Juan Nicasio-0.0460.1360.18223
Dee Gordon-0.0460.2340.280114
Jorge Cantu-0.0470.1940.241155
Chris Narveson-0.0470.1430.19050
Sean Burroughs-0.0470.2570.30473
Brian Roberts-0.0480.2210.269178
Dioner Navarro-0.0480.2010.249184
Nick Punto-0.0480.2710.319131
Logan Forsythe-0.0480.2100.258111
Angel Pagan-0.0490.2540.303380
Nick Evans-0.0490.1940.24346
Chris Johnson-0.0490.2450.294367
Chris Nelson-0.0490.2230.272136
Randy Wells-0.0490.1540.20329
Ryan Spilborghs-0.0490.2140.263215
Robinson Cano-0.0490.3040.353498
Matt Treanor-0.0490.2260.275230
Austin Kearns-0.0500.2000.250174
Ian Kinsler-0.0500.2410.291538
Eric Young Jr.-0.0500.2310.281123
Adam Lind-0.0510.2640.315410
Vernon Wells-0.0510.2040.255381
Manny Burriss-0.0510.2170.268144
Jordan Schafer-0.0510.2400.291220
Nolan Reimold-0.0510.2330.284165
Alberto Gonzalez-0.0520.2150.267201
Brandon Crawford-0.0520.1900.242172
Jesus Flores-0.0520.2430.29539
Brandon Belt-0.0530.2320.28594
Ramon Castro-0.0550.2350.29075
Don Kelly-0.0550.2350.290198
Rob Johnson-0.0550.1940.249187
Kevin Correia-0.0550.0910.14653
Chone Figgins-0.0550.1880.243313
J.D. Martinez-0.0560.2500.30660
Evan Longoria-0.0570.2330.290383
Elliot Johnson-0.0570.1820.239161
Anthony Rizzo-0.0570.1430.200117
Travis Wood-0.0570.0710.12832
Matt Young-0.0570.2080.26552
Kevin Kouzmanoff-0.0570.2210.278149
Brett Myers-0.0570.1330.19051
Bud Norris-0.0580.1000.15852
Kelly Johnson-0.0590.2100.269461
Rafael Furcal-0.0590.2050.264215
Tim Hudson-0.0600.1400.20059
Scott Cousins-0.0600.1350.19558
Jair Jurrjens-0.0600.0980.15848
Ben Revere-0.0600.2450.305298
Craig Counsell-0.0610.1510.212148
Ryan Hanigan-0.0620.2490.311245
Julio Borbon-0.0620.2700.33298
Julio Lugo-0.0620.1500.21243
Jason Giambi-0.0620.2600.322112
Cody Ransom-0.0630.2000.26329
Mike Cameron-0.0640.1770.241201
Luis Martinez-0.0640.2630.32743
Reid Brignac-0.0640.1910.255201
Chris Carter-0.0640.1330.19732
Javier Vazquez-0.0640.2110.27544
Felipe Lopez-0.0660.2100.276150
Tony Campana-0.0670.2820.349110
Chad Billingsley-0.0670.1950.26249
Chris Volstad-0.0680.1880.25637
Chase D'Arnaud-0.0680.2250.293108
Ryan Langerhans-0.0690.1730.24264
Alexi Amarista-0.0690.1460.21552
Homer Bailey-0.0690.1740.24326
Reggie Willits-0.0700.0450.11528
Tommy Hanson-0.0700.0510.12145
Kyle McClellan-0.0700.1430.21341
Brad Emaus-0.0710.1620.23342
Adam LaRoche-0.0710.1720.243177
Cory Luebke-0.0710.1500.22121
Mat Latos-0.0710.0770.14843
Brandon Hicks-0.0710.0480.11922
Chin-lung Hu-0.0720.0500.12223
Tom Gorzelanny-0.0720.0770.14931
Michael Martinez-0.0720.2160.288162
Ubaldo Jimenez-0.0730.1140.18742
Roy Halladay-0.0730.0750.14868
Matt Garza-0.0730.0650.13848
Cole Hamels-0.0740.1450.21959
Brian Schneider-0.0740.1800.25499
Matt Stairs-0.0750.1540.22974
Matt Pagnozzi-0.0770.2860.36325
Cord Phelps-0.0770.1960.27355
James McDonald-0.0770.0950.17248
Aaron Cunningham-0.0780.2050.28343
Mark DeRosa-0.0780.1500.22843
Jason Kipnis-0.0780.2790.35775
Brandon Allen-0.0780.2290.30743
Kyle Seager-0.0810.1740.25550
Magglio Ordonez-0.0820.2230.305289
Carlos Zambrano-0.0830.3180.40148
Paul Maholm-0.0840.1110.19552
Trent Oeltjen-0.0840.2200.30456
Zach Duke-0.0840.2630.34722
Jose Lopez-0.0860.1870.273161
Donnie Murphy-0.0860.1030.18943
Josh Johnson-0.0870.1580.24523
Anibal Sanchez-0.0880.1750.26353
R.A. Dickey-0.0890.2000.28948
Diory Hernandez-0.0890.2120.30135
Tyler Greene-0.0890.1960.285119
Tyler Colvin-0.0890.1350.224145
Jarrod Dyson-0.0890.1720.26135
Charlie Morton-0.0890.0500.13949
J.A. Happ-0.0890.2120.30140
Will Rhymes-0.0890.2210.31081
J.R. Towles-0.0910.1800.271145
Dane Sardinha-0.0930.2190.31243
Ted Lilly-0.0940.0770.17143
Kyle Phillips-0.0940.1710.26585
Kyle Lohse-0.0950.1430.23855
Brandon Beachy-0.0950.0330.12835
Todd Frazier-0.0960.2120.30859
Wil Nieves-0.0980.1400.23854
Roy Oswalt-0.0980.1430.24129
Shaun Marcum-0.1010.1560.25756
Cliff Lee-0.1020.2260.32858
Jonathon Niese-0.1040.0670.17156
Dusty Brown-0.1060.1070.21330
Ivan Rodriguez-0.1060.2140.320129
Ian Kennedy-0.1070.0870.19455
John Lannan-0.1080.0870.19552
Wandy Rodriguez-0.1090.1300.23949
Jake Westbrook-0.1090.0860.19543
Clayton Richard-0.1150.1070.22232
Darnell McDonald-0.1200.1760.296102
Andres Blanco-0.1220.2060.32873
Jason Hammel-0.1250.1710.29652
Jeff Karstens-0.1260.1030.22948
Erick Almonte-0.1290.1030.23229
Mike Trout-0.1340.1630.29747
Mike Pelfrey-0.1360.0710.20747
Ramiro Pena-0.1390.0800.21929
Jason Marquis-0.1410.1740.31549
Wily Mo Pena-0.1420.1850.32754
Dustin Moseley-0.1460.1380.28436
Hiroki Kuroda-0.1470.0890.23651
Jorge de la Rosa-0.1550.2380.39323
J.B. Shuck-0.1570.1820.33926
Adam Rosales-0.1590.0830.24254
Jaime Garcia-0.1730.0850.25853
Johnny Cueto-0.1740.0300.20442
Mat Gamel-0.1750.1150.29027
Eugenio Velez-0.1760.0000.17623
Brandon Boggs-0.2300.1580.38822
Russ Mitchell-0.2320.1150.34731
Trayvon Robinson-0.3020.1740.47624
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Jesus Saves in San Diego

By on August 10, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Jesus Guzman, 1B, SD – That’s Jesus, as in “hey, Zeus” just like if you were greeting the Greek god, which is exactly what Guzman has been hitting like. All this guy has done is string together two-hit games like the second coming of Zeus with seven such efforts in his last 10 games. He’s also been an RBI machine, something we all thought was impossible in San Diego. He even steals the occasional base with four thefts in 119 at-bats this season, making him a 20/15 threat at first base. Not too shabby overall. Ride the wave.

Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW — After hitting 13 homers in April and May we all thought the MVP-caliber Quentin had returned. Then he struggled in June and July, combining for just seven home runs and we all thought he was once again that washed up has-been that you swore would be outperformed by 2011′s ghost of Adam Dunn. I mean come on, Quentin. Your July had three times as many strikeouts (24) as runs (8). Over a full season that averages out to something like 144 Ks and 48 runs. Well whaddaya know, you now have four homers in just eight August games. You’re back, Carlos!

Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW — I bombed my first ever exam in college way back when. I still remember it vividly. I got a 64 on a basic biology exam that asked rudimentary questions about photosynthesis and other energy pathways. Of course, today I have almost no recollection of anything I learned, but back then that stuff was easy. I worked my butt off the rest of the semester trying to dig myself out of that hole, scoring 96 on my last two exams and pulling a B in the class. Without that 64 I had an easy A. That’s kind of like Floyd’s 2011 season. Last time out he had the 10-run stinker that raised his ERA from 3.96 to 4.56. After last night’s quality start, Floyd lowered his ERA a tad to 4.53. Remove that 10-run anomaly and his season ERA sits at 3.97. It’s not great, but it’s a lot better than 4.53 and his 1.22 WHIP is pretty nice in its own right.

Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE — Don’t be fooled by Kipnis’ power! I’ll say this over and over again until it finally sinks in for fantasy owners everywhere. The power isn’t sustainable, and with 20 strikeouts in just 56 at-bats (35.7%), the .232 average he has right now is the best we can expect.

Bobby Abreu, OF, LAA — Two homers? Seriously? Way to wait until I drop you, jerk. Abreu was just 1-for-19 with eight strikeouts to begin August and has been so terrible this season that I’m writing it off as a fluke occurrence…just like those five homers from Kipnis.

Colby Rasmus, OF, TOR — Look who has a six game hitting streak north of the border! La Russa’s nemesis has been batting sixth for the Jays behind Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion and in front of Aaron Hill and J.P. Arencibia, a semi-tough spot from a fantasy standpoint. Lind and Encarnacion have OBPs in the .320s so they’re not on base a ton for Rasmus to drive in, and Hill and Arencibia are mediocre at driving in runners. That said, Rasmus has four RBI and three runs scored in those six games so what do I know?

Rich Harden, SP, TOR — Last night we saw the Harden that the Red Sox pursued: seven innings, eight strikeouts, two walks and one run. Not too shabby. The 107 pitches he threw marked the fifth straight start in which he’d topped the century mark, and he threw 99 in the start before the streak began.

Martin Prado, 2B/3B/OF, ATL — Prado was all over the box score with a 4-for-6 night against Clay Hensley. It’s about time he got in on the action as Prado had just one homer and five RBI over his previous 23 games. The homer and three RBI last night almost matched that month-long production.

Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL — I don’t know what impresses me more. The fact that Uggla now has a 30-game hitting streak or that his season average is just .220 in the midst of such a lengthy streak. Uggla’s back, but you knew that already.

Dontrelle Willis, SP, CIN — Willis went all 2005 on us last night: eight innings pitched, 10 strikeouts and an RBI triple (minor note: Willis actually never tripled in ’05 but it was still his best all-around season). With just one walk and strikes on 77-of-112 pitches (69%), maybe Willis is someone to take a chance on down the stretch.

Desmond Jennings, OF, TB — This kid’s got wheels. We all knew that and somehow I’m still impressed. He stole his eighth base last night in just 17 games and .328 on the season. A word of caution, though: I know Jennings has blazing speed, but that .328 average is a mirage until his strikeout rate improves (23%).

James Shields, SP, TB — Another complete game by Shields made me look like a fool after I wrote an article this past week telling fantasy owners to sell. Keep in mind, though, that Shields did this against a Royals team that has averaged under four runs per game over the last two weeks.

Mike Carp, 1B/OF, SEA — This note has probably been a long time coming as Carp now has a 10-game hit streak, but he actually has a rather cushy lineup spot behind Ichiro, Jack Wilson and Dustin Ackley. Wilson sucks something awful, but Ichiro and Ackley are among the best on-base batters even if Ichiro is having a down year. Carp has eight RBI in those 10 games and has raised his average to .304. He’s worth consideration in deep, five-outfielder leagues.

Jonathan Papelbon, CL, BOS — I’m a Red Sox fan and even I was surprised at Pap’s season stats. He’s walked just eight batters to 64 strikeouts on the season and now has a 0.99 WHIP. He’s allowed just two baserunners in his last 11 innings and has converted 21 straight save chances. Despite the 3.21 ERA, I think this is his best year since 2008.

Corey Hart, OF, MIL — Hart was batting just .255 on July 30 but now has his average up to .277 just seven games later. He has four homers in that span and has been loving the leadoff spot this season with a .306 average batting first.

J.D. Martinez, OF, HOU — Martinez continued his hot hitting and is now the best J.D. in the world with J.D. Drew tanking in Boston. Hunter Pence’s replacement has four homers in his last six games and is batting .306 on his young season.

Cliff Lee, SP, PHI — Like Willis in Cincinnati, Lee pitched eight innings of 10-strikeout ball and one-upped the Reds’ slugging pitcher by hitting a homer in the seventh inning that proved to be the game’s winning run!

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Nova and Bedard impress, Gordon likes batting leadoff and other fantasy headlines from Thursday night

By on August 5, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Ivan Nova, SP, NYY - Either Nova and Phil Hughes respond really well to the threat of losing a rotation spot or they both spent last weekend visiting Bartolo Colon‘s stem cell doctor. Two nights after Hughes blanked the White Sox, Nova pitched seven and two-thirds innings of one run ball. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out 10. It will be fascinating to see Nova and Hughes battle for that fifth spot in the Yankees rotation and I’m sure A-Rod has some sort of wager on it. My prediction? A.J. Burnett hits the DL with a mysterious injury opening up a spot for each of them.

Erik Bedard, SP, BOS - Bedard looked sharp last night. His fastball had late life, his curveball was sharp and most importantly, he threw strikes. He threw 49 of his 70 pitches, or 70 percent, of his pitches for strikes. He did allow three runs in five innings but one of the runs was the result of Bedard not covering first base on a roller hit to Adrian Gonzalez. The key for Bedard will be health and building up his pitch count but so far so good for Boston’s newest acquisition.

Alex Gordon, 3B/OF, KC - I was on the Gordon comeback bandwagon in the beginning of April and I’m still on now. Though my space is getting a little cramped. The former can’t-miss prospect added another four hits last nights. Gordon is contributing in every fantasy category and has a triple slash line of .326/.402/.565 in the leadoff spot, his permanent spot for the past 15 games. Oh yeah he’s batting .291 against lefties this year too.

Desmond Jennings, OF, TB - The Jennings hit parade keeps on marching. With three more hits last night the speedy youngster has raised his batting average to .354. We knew the kid could steal bases, evidenced by his five swipes in 12 games, but who knew the power would be there already? With three home runs Jennings is looking more Andrew McCutchen than Brett Gardner. Give the Rays all the flack you want for waiting to promote their top prospects but clearly they know what they’re doing.

Jon Rauch, CL, TOR - All you closer vultures start circling around the Blue Jays pen. Rauch blew another save last night, allowing three runs in an inning and a third. He’s now blown five of his 15 save chances on the season and has allowed at least one run in three of his last four appearances. And get this: he hasn’t had a 1-2-3 save since June 7th. Meanwhile Frank Francisco hasn’t allowed a run in six straight appearances. To be clear I’m not endorsing Francisco and his 4.54 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. I’m just pointing out that Jays manager John Farrell is less likely to throw up in his mouth by calling Francisco’s name for the team’s next save opportunity.

Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA – I’ve been reluctant to buy into Trumbo all season due to his poor on-base percentage and low walk rate but I can’t continue to ignore him. With another home run and four RBI last night, Trumbo Ravioli has now smacked 21 dingers and driven in 62 runs. That’s some serious power, especially in this power depressed market. He’s also leading first baseman in steals with eight. Every little bit helps.

Francisco Liriano, SP, Min - Why is Liriano owned in 77 percent of Yahoo leagues? The far from overpowering Angels lineup lit up the Twins lefty for seven runs in five innings. Liriano’s ERA and WHIP stand at 5.03 and 1.46, respectively. His walk rate is on the wrong side of four, his strikeout rate is way down from last year, and his fastball velocity is nearly two MPH slower than a year ago. Stop expecting a turnaround and cut bait.

Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - No he didn’t play last night but he is expected to being a rehab assignment tonight and could return to the lineup by the middle of next week. I’m not really sure what to think of the former MVP. He says he feels great but he was suffering from migraines just a week ago, though reportedly they weren’t related to his concussion from last year. I wouldn’t rely on Morneau this year but stash him on the DL if you can. Few players in free agency offer the kind of upside that Morneau does.

Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B, TOR - Rejoice Lawrie stashers, prospect protectors and Blue Jays fans everywhere. The Jays top minor league property has been called up and will man third base for Canada’s lone team for the rest of the year. I expect him to bat sixth or seventh as the Jays don’t want to put too much pressure on him initially. Lawrie has good pop for a second baseman and he can steal bases, two important traits for being a mixed league middle infielder. As with all rookies he could struggle but the upside is too great to not take the chance. To make room for Lawrie on the roster Travis Snider was demoted to Triple-A. He’s a player who could really use a change of scenery.

Omar Infante, 2B/3B/SS/OF, FLA - The Marlins Swiss Army knife had been on a tear before fracturing his middle finger last night. He’s expected to be placed on the DL so start looking for alternatives if you haven’t already. Infante’s injury is a shame because he was finally starting to look like the .321 hitter he was with Atlanta last year.

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It's Time To Sell James Shields

By on August 4, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Fantasy baseball trade deadlines are rapidly approaching. My league’s deadline is just three days away. For many other leagues it’s just 10 days away. That means now might be your last chance to sell high on players who might struggle down the stretch. One such player is James Shields.

Ordinarily I’d suggest holding onto Shields. Barring injury he’s going to reach 200 innings for the fifth straight season, so it’s not like he’s never thrown this many innings before, but Shields is on pace to shatter his single-season innings pitched mark. Back in 2009 he threw 219 2/3 innings over 33 starts (6.66 innings per start). This season he’s on pace to throw 240 2/3 innings over 33 starts (7.29 innings per start).

Worst of all, it appears the increased workload is already taking its toll. Shields has seen his fastball velocity decrease steadily for the majority of the season (see below) and his peripherals have worsened each month all season.

BB/9 by Month

  • April: 1.75
  • May: 2.17
  • June: 2.40
  • July: 3.41
  • August: 3.68 (one start)

K/9 by Month

  • April: 7.58
  • May: 10.13
  • June: 9.20
  • July: 7.39
  • August: 7.36 (one start)

Shields also posted a .276 OBA in July, which was similar to his .273 OBA during the entirety of 2009. That year Shields had a 4.14 ERA and 4.02 FIP. His ERA likely would have been worse if his walk rate wasn’t a solid 2.26. What I’m getting at is unless his OBA and walk rate improve from here on out, those 2009 stats are about the best we can expect.

And it’s not like second-half struggles are new to Shields. Last season his first-half ERA was 4.87 compared to 5.59 in the second half and his 2009 disparity was even larger, 3.42 before the break and 5.16 after.

Shields is the ninth-ranked starting pitcher in fantasy right now and the 25th-ranked player overall so my guess is you can probably get a pretty good player in return. Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain, Jon Lester, Ricky Romero and David Price are all pitchers I would target if I had Shields. All are ranked lower than Shields as of today, but I expect all of them to be better than Complete Game James from here on out.

(Oh, as for the picture, click to enlarge.)

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