Whenever you trade away a starter like Cliff Lee, you’d better get something good in return. It finally looks like Carlos Carrasco is ready to follow in Lee’s footsteps in Cleveland, even if his game looks a little more like Fausto Carmona‘s…in his prime that is.
It took his third year in the big leagues, but Carrasco has developed into an ace-quality starter with the ability to completely dominate opponents. In 15 starts this season, Carrasco has compiled an 8-4 record with 3.54 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, but he’s really come into his own in June. This month he’s 4-2 with a 1.90 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Those number make him the fifth best starter in June, trailing only Justin Verlander, Lee, Jordan Zimmermann and Matt Cain.
But (almost) anyone can put together one outstanding month. Heck, Jeff Karstens is 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in June and he’d never had an ERA lower than 3.44 in any of the prior 15 months in his career in which he’d thrown at least 10 innings. The question with Carrasco, as always, is will he keep this up?
In short, yes. Carrasco has several positive indicators that point towards sustained success. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher, posting a 1.53 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio this season with a career mark of 1.70. This reduces the number of home runs he’ll allow, lessening the negative impact of any walks he issues.
Nowadays those walks are rather few and far between. He’s walking just 2.20 batters per nine innings with the Indians thus far this season, which seems to be right where he’s been at these last few seasons. Check out his walk rates (in BB/9) over the last five seasons (numbers for minors and majors combined each year):
- 2011: 2.42 (also had 3 BB in 3 2/3 IP in AA-ball this season)
- 2010: 2.77
- 2009: 2.81
- 2008: 3.45
- 2007: 4.37
There’s no reason — in my mind at least — to expect Carrasco to revert to his pre-2009 form, which means he makes hitters earn their trips to first base. Considering his .240 opponents’ average this season (.216 in June, .248 league average) and low rate of home runs allowed, the only way teams are putting up crooked numbers against Carrasco is by stringing together hit after hit. There won’t be many instances of walk, walk, three-run homer in Cleveland.
In terms of repertoire, Carrasco has shown the ability to throw three secondary pitches with impressive results; his slider, curveball and change-up all rate as above average in terms of runs above average. In fact, here’s how his pitches rank in terms of runs above average per 100 pitches:
- Fastball: 76 of 114
- Slider: 12 of 89
- Curveball: 19 of 96
- Change-up: 18 of 108
Even with what has been a below-average fastball this season, Carrasco’s ability to throw three other equally effective pitches has kept hitters off-balance to the tune of that .240 average.
From a more “but has Carrasco been lucky?” perspective, we see his 3.54 ERA is pretty much in line with his 3.46 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. His BABIP is .271, perhaps a little low, but his 69.5 percent strand rate is a little under the usual league average of 72 percent. Essentially, Carrasco’s stats thus far are an accurate representation of the kind of pitcher he is.
Will we continue to see the kind of dominance Carrasco has displayed in June? Eh, probably not. Actually, definitely not, but no one since Pedro Martinez in his prime has been consistently able to put up those kind of numbers. You won’t get a ton of strikeouts from Carrasco, probably about four or five per start, but you’ll get solid ratios and even some wins in what has been a surprising Cleveland offense.
Because I like prospecting, check out what MLB.com had to say about Carrasco. My two favorite bits? “The changeup, which has sink, is a plus pitch at times and is particularly tough against left-handed hitters,” and “He’s special. The maturity factor is the biggest thing.”
(P.S. This article from Yahoo! was particularly interesting regarding the relative value of certain secondary pitches. Take it or leave it, but read it nonetheless.)
