Archive | April, 2011

Twice is Nice: A lot of top arms have two starts in week 5

By on April 30, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The best part about setting your lineup in head-to-head leagues is figuring out which pitchers will get two starts for the week. If you don’t have any two-start pitchers going your task of winning the week just got a little bit harder (although not as much of a long shot as some of these MLB odds). But if you have multiple pitchers taking the mound twice then you have a leg up on your opponent.

With so many top pitchers having two starts in week 5 I have a feeling setting your lineup this week is going to be fun. If not, then good luck to you.

Top 20 Two-Start Pitchers

1. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – (vs. LAA, vs. MIN)

2. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels – (@ BOS, vs. CLE)

3. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – (vs. CHC, @ NYM)

4. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves – (vs. MIL, @ PHI)

5. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers - (vs. NYY, @ TOR)

6. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees – (@ DET, @ TEX)

7. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox – (vs. LAA, vs. MIN)

8. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies - (vs. WAS, vs. ATL)

Oswalt is scheduled to start on Tuesday but he may not make the start as he’s tending to family issues back home. For more on what Oswalt is going through check out Doug Glanville’s story on ESPN.com. Here’s to hoping his family is all right.

9. Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers – (@ SEA, vs. NYY)

10. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers - (@ ATL, @ STL)

11. Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins – (@ STL, vs. WAS)

12. Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals – (vs. FLA, vs. MIL)

13. Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves – (vs. MIL, @ PHI)

14. Kyle McClellan, St. Louis Cardinals (vs. FLA, vs. MIL)

15. Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (vs. TOR, @ BAL)

16. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (@ ARZ, @ STL)

17. Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles (@ CHW, vs. TB)

18. Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres (vs. PIT, vs. ARZ)

19. Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees (@ DET, @ TEX)

20. Brandon McCarthy, Oakland Athletics (vs. TEX, @ KC)

Two-Start Sleepers

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (@ OAK, vs. NYY)

The game against New York is a tough matchup but he pitched well in Yankee Stadium earlier this year. Although he let up five runs in that start, he should have been taken out after seven innings. Instead Robinson Cano hit a two-run homer in the eighth against him. Holland has pitched better than his numbers indicate. The strikeouts are there but he hasn’t yet avoided that one mistake pitch per game that yields a few runs.

Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians (@ OAK, @ LAA)

It’s been smoke and mirrors so far for Tomlin but the hot steak could continue against two weak hitting AL West teams.

James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates (@ SD, vs. HOU)

The popular breakout candidate has yet to get his feet under him on the young season. However, he pitched six shutouts innings in his last start and he draws the weak hitting Padres at PETCO and the unimposing Astros at home.

Two-Start Pitchers to Avoid

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs (@ LAD, vs. CIN)

To call Dempster’s start to the season a slump is an understatement. After allowing seven runs and only recording one out in his last start, Dempster’s ERA and WHIP sit at 9.87 and 1.87, respectively. Even more discouraging is that there have been reports that his velocity has been down, though Cubs officials say that is not the case. Either way I can’t trust Dempster right now.

Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals (@ PHI, @ FLA)

The 3.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP might have you intrigued but I wouldn’t trust Hernandez with two road starts this week against more than capable offenses.

Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners (vs. TEX, vs. vs. CHW)

With two home starts and coming off of a seven innings and one run performance against the Tigers, Bedard appears to be an intriguing option this week. However, Texas kills left handed pitching and Chicago’s offense is a sleeping giant right now. Plus 2007 Bedard is like Santa Clause. Believe all you want but he doesn’t exist.

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The FAAB Five: AL/NL-Only Free Agent Adds, Week 4

By on April 29, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

As you already know, the free agent pickings are slim in AL-only and NL-only leagues. You sigh when you read an article telling you to pick up the hot hitting Justin Smoak. He’s available in two-thirds of mixed leagues but long gone in yours. That’s where the FAAB five single league pickups come into play. Today we’ll be looking at the hot hitting players who may still be available in your hardcore leauge.

There’s only one rule for this exercise: the player must be owned in fewer than 10% of ESPN mixed leagues.

American League

Joel Pineiro, SP, Los Angeles Angels | 9.6% owned

After injuring his shoulder in spring training, Pineiro is scheduled to come off the DL and start tomorrow at Tampa Bay. His ERA and FIP have both been under four the past two years. Pineiro’s walk rates in that same time span have been 2.01 and 1.14 and his ground ball rate has been over 50 percent in each year. He won’t get you strikeouts but his ratios will help you.

Jack Hannahan, 3B, Cleveland Indians | 8.2% owned

The journeyman third baseman is in the midst of an eight game hitting streak. He has four home runs on the year and a combined 28 runs and RBI. Hannahan is just keeping the seat warm for prospect Lonnie Chisenhall so he’s definitely not an add for the future. But if you’re looking for a hot streak to ride out for the next week or so, Hannahan makes a decent short term add.

Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers | 3.2% owned

Porcello has gone at least six innings and allowed only one run in each of his last two starts. His strikeout rate is also up to 6.35 after having been 4.65 last year and 4.69 in 2009. Porcello’s ground ball rate is nearly 50 percent and his FIP sits at an even 3.00 after four starts. He hasn’t taken the next step yet but the signs are certainly encouraging.

Philip Humber, SP, Chicago White Sox | 0.6 % owned

How about a little Humber pie? The former number three overall pick and slice of the Johan Santana deal, Humber is coming off his best performance to date. He shut out the Yankees at Yankee Stadium for seven innings, racking up five strikeouts in the process. He has now started four games and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of them. An improved walk rate has a lot to do with his success and his 3.36 FIP indicates that his performance thus far has been warranted. Keep in mind that Chicago has had success before with struggling former pitching prospects. John Danks and Gavin Floyd come to mind.

Corey Patterson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays | 0.4% owned

Patterson was only supposed to be only a placeholder for Rajai Davis. However, Toronto demoted Travis Snider to make room for Davis so it appears Patterson’s job is safe for now. The speedy outfielder has three multi-hit games in his last four games and will remain in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. Simply put, Patterson steals bases when he plays and he’s playing right now. He won’t do much else but if you need a little steals pick me up, pick up a Patterson espresso.

National League

Vicente Padilla, SP/Soon to be RP, Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.5% owned

Any time a pitcher saves a game, you have to take notice. Although the Dodgers don’t technically have a closer right now, Padilla is the last reliever to record a save. Jonathan Broxton has been ineffective in the role and Hong Chih Kuo is on the DL, having struggled in his first rehab assignment. Padilla is certainly not safe but he’s worth a speculative add. His stuff plays well in the ninth inning and he could have success in the role, much like Jose Contreras was having before his elbow injury.

Bud Norris, SP, Houston Astros | 4.3% owned

Bud Norris, Houston Astros Ranger is doing his best punch out impression. The hard throwing righty has a strikeout rate of 10.29. Those strikeouts would be virtually meaningless with bad ratios but Norris has only allowed three runs combined in his last three starts. A drastically improved strikeout to walk ratio and ground ball to fly ball ratio have been the driving forces behind his 3.86 ERA. He actually might not hurt you this year.

Daniel Murphy, 2B/1B, New York Mets | 4.2% owned

Murphy may be available in your league because Brad Emaus beat him out in spring training. When Emaus was designated for assignment, the Mets called up Jacob Turner to presumably platoon with Murphy. As a result many owners still left Murphy in free agency. However, he has started five out of the last six games for the Mets and has batted .318 in that time span with a home run and five RBIs. He’s also been hitting out of the two-hole so he could be a sneaky source of runs. Even when Murphy doesn’t start, he’ll likely be the first guy off the bench to pinch hit, especially after his recent clutch hitting in late game situations.

Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies | 2.5% owned

I can’t believe so few owners stashed Brown on the DL. Inching closer to his return, Brown has made two rehab assignments and is 4-for-8 with two home runs. He says he’s almost 100 percent healed and he could be done with his rehab assignment within the week. At that time he will either be promoted to the big league club or sent to AAA. Ben Francisco is coming on as of late but Raul Ibanez is really struggling. If Brown continues to mash in the next week the Phillies may want his bat immediately in the lineup.

Wilson Ramos, C, Washington Nationals | 1.8% owned

He’s been alternating with Ivan Rodriguez but Ramos appears poised to gain the majority of the starts in the near future. In 48 at-bats the young backstop is batting .375 with two home runs and six RBI.

OK so the title of the article dictates that I stop here but I’ve decided to give you three more names. I’m sure you don’t mind and I certainly don’t. Maybe Michigan had three freshman walk-ons that year…

Clint Barmes, 2B/SS, Houston Astros | 0.6% owned

Barmes was activated from the disabled list today. He’ll likely be the starting shortstop from here on out as Angel Sanchez is expected to move back to the utility role. I’m not a fan of Barmes moving out of Coors but Houston shouldn’t be that bad for him with a short porch in right field. Don’t expect a good batting average out of him but middle infielders with power and speed are hard to find. Barmes did have 23 home runs two years ago and he has stolen 12 or more bases in two out of the last three years. You could do worse.

Brandon Wood, 3B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.3% owned

We seem to be waiting on Wood forever so hopefully a change of scenery is all he needs. After being claimed off waivers by the Pirates last week, Wood has started each of the last four games. More importantly, the last three starts have come at shortstop. Manager Clint Hurdle hasn’t yet said that Wood has replaced incumbent Ronny Cedeno but it seems like the Pirates organization wants Wood to win the job. Cedeno and his career .281 OBP can only have a starting job for so many years. Right?

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, San Diego Padress | 0.2% owned

The Padres lineup is ghastly and the team is getting absolutely nothing out of the first base position. Meanwhile Rizzo is tearing up Triple-A to the tune of a .416 batting average, seven home runs, 26 RBI and three stolen bases. The Padres will likely give Kyle Blanks the first crack at the job since he has major league experience and they probably want to delay Rizzo’s arbitration clock but one thing is clear: Rizzo will be up with the club at some point this summer and he has a good chance of locking down a starting job. If he’s of interest to you, he can’t be left in free agency much longer, especially if your league has a lot of bench spots.

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Thursday's Recap: Ben Zobrist has historic day

By on April 29, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Avid readers will undoubtedly recall the recap I wrote on Monday where I had some words of encouragement for Ben Zobrist fans everywhere. You can go back and find the whole recap by clicking here, but here’s the juicy bit: “Now is the time to trade for Zobrist if you have any need for a second baseman, an outfielder or a productive 20/20 player in general.” Heck, I even titled the recap “Zobrist ready to bounce back.”

After Thursday’s historic outburst—he became the fourth player ever and the first since 1972 to record seven hits and 10 RBI in a single day—Zobrist leaped all the way to Yahoo!’s ninth ranked player overall. Entering the day he was ranked 104. When everything was all said and done, Zobrist had five runs scored, two homers, 10 RBI and a stolen base in his 10 at-bats. Carl Crawford has six runs, one homer, six RBI and four steals ALL SEASON!

Zobrist raised his batting average from .205 to .258. He raised his OPS from .754 to .916. He’s now homered in four of his last five games. Had they played a triple-header I’m confident we would be looking at a 10-run, 20-RBI day from Big Z (screw, Carlos Zambrano…that’s Zobrist’s rightful nickname now).

So while this one day reaffirmed much of the faith I’ve had in Zobrist for much of the last year, it did give us one other piece of information that might be more important. ALWAYS LISTEN TO WHAT I SAY!

Three Up

Ben Zobrist, 1B/2B/OF, TB – 7-for-10, 5 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, SB

Nick Swisher, OF, NYY – 3-for-4, 3 R, HR, 4 RBI

Stephen Drew, SS, ARI – 2-for-5, 3 R, HR, 5 RBI

Three Down

Austin Jackson, OF, DET – 0-for-5, 2 K, 4 LOB

Sam Fuld, OF, TB – 0-for-9, R, 2 K, 2 LOB

Ryan Dempster, SP, CHC – 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, HR

Notes:

  • What the hell is going on with Dempster? He’s allowed seven earned runs in back-to-back starts, except this time it took him just a third of an inning to do it. He retired one freaking batter, and it would have been worse had Justin Berg not bailed him out by stranding more runners on base. Dempster is yet to have a quality start since he’s allowed at least four earned runs in each of his six starts this season, and his 9.58 ERA and 1.87 WHIP are just indescribably bad. Unbelievably though, his LD/GB/FB splits are pretty much in line with his career averages, his strikeout rate is almost the same and his xFIP is 4.26. Credit this poor start to bad control and even worse luck. His .344 BABIP against is high and his 23.7 percent HR/FB rate is just stupid. Bench him until he strings together a couple good outings, but really I would say go out and actively trade for him. He will be the Dempster of old in due time.
  • Braves starter Derek Lowe was arrested this morning and charged with DUI and reckless driving. Despite the 2-3 start, Lowe was having a serious bounce-back season. He had so far managed a 3.21 ERA and 8.55 K/9, the latter of which beats anything he’s ever done in his career. Let’s see how this one plays out…
  • Michael Pineda continued his stellar season with a six innings of four-hit ball in which he struck out nine Tigers. That makes the rookie 4-1 on the season with a 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and just 22 hits allowed in 31 1/3 innings. Most impressive of all, he’s struck out 30 batters to just 12 walks. I’m a Pineda owner in our Baseball Professor league and I have supreme faith in the kid, but this seems like the optimal time to sell high. I think he’ll continue to be a very good pitcher, but he has a history of poor control and, especially with a bad offense backing him up, that could be a real issue if he strings together two or three sub-par outings.
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The FAAB Five: Mixed League Free Agent Adds, Week 4

By on April 28, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The theme this week is buy/sell. Naturally, we covered it in our weekly buy/sell article on Tuesday, but it’s going to permeate through this article as well. And tomorrow’s? You’ll have to come back and see.

The first month of the season is coming to a close and there are plenty of players we have questions on. How long should you wait before you drop someone who’s struggling? How long do you wait to trade a player on a hot start? Since this article is geared towards shallower mixed leagues, we’ll talk some strategy for those folks.

When it comes to hitting, you want to be patient with your big guys. So what if Adam Dunn is struggling? You know he’s going to hit eventually—hitters always do. However, with pitching it’s a different story.

Pitching is a very deep position and big seasons come from every direction. No-name rookies, veterans who have a new pitching coach and even guys who sat out the entire 2010 season (welcome back, Bartolo Colon). In shallower leagues I tend to be a little less patient with my pitchers, especially if there are no signs of better things to come.

With that in mind, here are a few add/drops I would make if they are available in your league. Some are bold, but you’ll look like a genius at the end of the tunnel.

DROP Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN (95.6% owned) and ADD Anibal Sanchez (54.6% owned)

While Liriano is struggling with his command and walking 6.8 batters per nine, Sanchez is really coming into his own. He has improved his velocity on his fastball (92 mph) and his slider has been nearly unhittable as batters are managing just a .198 batting average against it. Liriano has been so inconsistent his entire career that I’m willing to take a chance on a breakout 2011 season for Sanchez rather than guess which weeks Liriano isn’t going to kill my team’s averages.

DROP Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB (87.8% owned) and ADD Bud Norris, SP, HOU (5.4% owned)

Norris seems to have figured out the control problems that have plagued him the last couple of seasons. He was always able to give you the strikeouts (career 9.3 K/9), but now his walks are down from 4.51 to 2.89. Hellickson had a lot of hype coming into the season, but he hasn’t really impressed in his first four starts. His 20 K:11 BB ratio isn’t anything spectacular and he’s in a tough division and bad ballpark. I’d be willing to take a chance on Norris finally having figured it out and leave Hellickson’s probable rollercoaster season to someone else.

DROP Alexi Ogando, SP/RP. TEX (81.3% owned) and ADD Ian Kennedy, SP, ARI (63.9% owned)

Color me pessimistic, but something tells me that a pitcher with primarily two pitches in his repetoire and has never pitched more than 41 2/3 innings in the big leagues will eventually tire in the summer—especially in the hot Texas sun. You can expect a lot of bumps in the road for him come July/August especially, which is why I’d rather have Kennedy. Before this week he was being dropped by a lot of owners, but after a complete-game, 10-strikeout performance against the Phillies his ownership will be back up around 75 percent. I love the 26 K:8 BB ratio, but his low 38 percent ground ball rate could get him into some trouble at home.

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Wednesday's Recap: New York's new ace

By on April 28, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

It’s been two starts now and Bartolo Colon has been as good as advertised. He’s followed up very good spring training numbers by allowing 12 hits, three runs and three walks while striking out 13 batters over 14 2/3 innings.

Is it possible that Colon is the ace of the Yankees staff?

I wouldn’t go that far, but he is definitely making the case for runner-up. He has shown great control and poise on the mound thusfar and if he isn’t owned in your league he needs to be. With Phil Hughes far away from returning, Colon should be cemented in the Yankees rotation.

Three Up

Chris Young, OF, ARI - 2-for-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Justin Smoak, 1B, SEA - 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 5 RBI, BB

Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 10 K

Three Down

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN - 3 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 4 K

Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL - 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

Sean Burnett, RP, WAS - 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, BB, 0 K

Notes:

  • Let’s start with some upbeat closer news. You can stop worrying about Mariano Rivera after blowing two straight saves after he pitched a perfect ninth last night. … Drew Storen fortified his position as the Nationals closer as Sean Burnett came in up 3-2 and promptly allowed four runs before Storen was called to get the final out in what ended up being a loss. … Darren Oliver converted his second save in as many opportunities, which would lead me to believe Ron Washington will lean towards him for saves during Feliz’s absence.
  • And some more closer news: Vicente Padilla surprisingly notched his first save of the season. Jonathan Broxton blew a save on Monday and maybe this was sending him a message so I wouldn’t worry just yet. … The Cardinals bullpen is in shambles right now and Eduardo Sanchez, despite getting the save, did not look great in the process (IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K). Ryan Franklin also showed that he’s a shell of his former self, giving up two hits and two runs without recording an out. With the Cardinals struggling so much on Mitchell Boggs‘ off day, it seems that Boggs will get the majority of the chances in the near future.
  • Andre Ethier is making history with his 24-game hit streak, but there should be some caution. He is still struggling to hit against lefties (.222 BA), which is something that has hurt him his entire career. Last year, Ethier was hitting .392 on May 14 and struggled the rest of the year after a broken finger made him miss a couple of weeks. There’s a chance that the injury bothered him all season, but it also could be that he’s just a hot starter. If you can get a top 20 player in return I would pull the trigger on a trade.
  • Kyle Lohse continues to impress, this time with a seven-inning outing where he allowed just four hits and one walk while striking out two batters. Opponents are batting .173 against him, but no one is probably willing to buy into his start so if you own him just ride the wave baby.
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A Closer Look: Beware Francisco Rodriguez and his 2.08 ERA

By on April 27, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

There is always a healthy debate on what the best metric is for evaluating a pitcher’s performance. It is said that Zeus created baseball in 500 B.C. and gave the ancient philosopher and mathematician Pythagoras the responsibility of devising formulas and statistics to accurately track player performance. Of course, Pythagoras died shortly thereafter leaving behind his selfishly named theorum, which doesn’t make any reference to the great task Zeus entrusted him with!

As punishment, Zeus forbid anyone to even think about the game he had gifted them and it was lost for over two thousand years until Alexander Cartwright found lost ancient Greek scrolls with unfamiliar drawings. Because the language of the ancient Greeks was commonly taught in public schools in Cartwright’s day, he immediately understood the importance of what he had discovered. Cartwright recreated the game as Zeus intended and, as they say, the rest is history.

As the game has evolved over the last one hundred-plus years, our understanding of the statistics that describe the play that takes place has evolved as well. ERA is the oldest and most commonly used statistic to describe pitcher performance, but outrage over its inability to accurately portray how well a pitcher has pitched has led to the development of many different iterations such as SIERA, FIP, xFIP and tERA.

Still, plain old ERA pervades our minds and is plastered everywhere pitchers’ stats are displayed. I wish we could do away with ERA, or at least give an alternative metric in television broadcasts, but ERA is mainstream and, sometimes, overvalued.

Take Francisco Rodriguez. His ERA currently sits at 2.08. On the surface that makes him look like one of the best closers in the game, and his five saves in six chances do a pretty neat job of backing that up, but like in Jaws, it’s what we don’t see on the surface that scares the hell out of me.

Did you know that in Rodriguez’s nine appearances he has gone at least one inning in eight of them, but in all eight of those outings he has allowed at least one base runner via a hit or a walk? As a result, and despite his low ERA, Rodriguez’s WHIP sits at a very crooked 1.73.

OK, 8 2/3 innings is a pretty small sample size. Maybe a few balls found holes and a few pitches didn’t go his way and that’s why his WHIP is so high. Honestly, that’s entirely possible, and given his .429 BABIP it’s partly true, but there are some unnerving trends developing in Rodriguez’s early play:

  • His 6.23 BB/9 would easily be a career high. Again, while the sample size is small, his control has been less than stellar so far. Considering his career-best control last season, that’s concerning to me.
  • His 10.4 percent swinging strike percentage would be a career low and would mark the third straight year of decline. This makes me wonder how elite his K/9 will be this season since I’m very confident the 13.50 rate we see so far is a mirage. Batters are only swinging at 50.8 percent of Rodriguez’s pitches in the strike zone so far this season, well below his career average of 60.3 percent. Once they begin swinging again, and subsequently making more contact than at any other point in his career, I’d expect his strikeout rate to fall noticeably.
  • Rodriguez’s average fastball is clocked at 91.0 MPH this season. While it was a near-identical 91.1 MPH last year (which was a career low mind you) he had better separation between his fastball and changeup. Last year his changeup sat at 82.2 MPH. This year it’s 83.5 MPH.
  • Rodriguez is also throwing his fastball more than he ever has in his career. It’s not shocking for closers to throw their fastballs a high percentage of the time, but it’s rather unnerving in Rodriguez’s case because over the course of his career his fastball is easily his worst pitch in terms of Fangraphs pitch values. His career 0.36 wFB/C (essentially the effectiveness of his fastball per 100 fastballs…that’s the “/C” part) is only slightly above average and this season it sits at -0.63. For his career, every other pitch is well into the positive with his chanegup checking in at 3.82. Of course, his changeup this season is 8.88 so take all of this for what it’s worth, but I still am slightly worried at the overall trend.
  • Opponents are hitting line drives off Rodriguez 20.0 percent of the time, which would be the second-highest rate of his career and highest since 2004. No real explanation needed here.
  • Rodriguez hasn’t allowed a home run yet on the season. While this isn’t particularly shocking since he hasn’t ever really had a problem with the long ball, it’s worth noting that one homer will likely do a lot of damage given how high his WHIP has been thus far. On average, Rodriguez has allowed nearly two base runners per inning pitched, so if we assume there was one man on base at some point this season and the batter homered, you’d be looking at two more earned runs charged to Rodriguez. That would push his season ERA from 2.08 to 4.15, but in that case we probably aren’t having this discussion.

Overall, job security is what matters most for a closer and it appears Rodriguez has a very firm grasp on the Mets’ closing gig, but just know that rough waters lie ahead.

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Tuesday’s Recap: Is Grady Sizemore really back?

By on April 27, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Grady Sizemore‘s season is only 32 at-bats old, but his play in the early going is reminding us why many baseball pundits picked him as a future MVP candidate several years back. He already has three homers on the young season and is batting a Ted Williams-esque .406 in his first eight games. Sizemore’s play will undoubtedly cause much confusion in the fantasy world as owners try to decide whether he’s back to being the star he was from 2005 to 2008 or the oft-injured, frustrating waste of a roster spot we saw in 2009 and 2010.

First, here’s the good news. Sizemore’s strikeout rate (21.1%) and line drive rate (20.0%) are both sustainable given his career averages. For the most part, this means that he should continue putting the ball in play at the same rate we’ve seen over his first eight games and his average should only drop as a result of luck (that .455 BABIP will probably end up around .300).

Now, the not-so-good news. Sizemore’s fly ball rate (60.0%) is astronomical and his HR/FB rate (20.0%) is well above his previous career high (14.5%). This means Sizemore is hitting more fly balls than usual, and a higher percentage of those fly balls are leaving the yard. Granted, he only has three homers on the season, but don’t try and extrapolate that pace over a full season and expect 35-plus bombs. It’s not going to happen. Even in a full season of at-bats, Sizemore is probably more of a mid-to-high 20s guy.

Given his likely low batting average (career .274 with three straight years under that mark) and questionable stolen base output as a result of the injuries he has sustained, is it worth trading for a hot bat that contributes in only a couple categories and is probably overhyped right now? My guess is no. If you have Sizemore I would actively try to trade him, and if someone approached me with Sizemore I’d politely listen to what he was selling before passing on the offer. I don’t want any part of an injury-prone player who’s falsely regarded as a 20/20 threat. It’s not happening.

Three Up

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC - 3-for-4, HR, SB, 2 R, 2 RBI

Wilson Ramos, C, WAS – 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

Adam Lind, 1B, TOR – 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI

Three Down

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL – 0-for-5, K, 4 LOB

Matt Harrison, SP, TEX – 3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, K

Marlon Byrd, OF, CHC – 0-for-4, 3 K, 4 LOB

Notes:

  • After about a month those Carl Crawford or Ryan Braun debates seem sort of pointless. Of course, Crawford could outperform Braun over the last five months of the season, but have you actually seen how awesome Braun has been? He hit his ninth homer of the season on Tueday and has 20-plus runs and RBI, too. Perhaps best of all, his walk rate is more than double his career average (15.5% to 7.5%) which tells me he’s seeing the ball incredibly well and is waiting for his pitches. If you don’t have Braun you likely won’t be able to get him right now, and if you do have him you likely aren’t selling him after this start, but I thought it was worth noting. That’s what this section is for after all…las notas.
  • Sorry, Jed Lowrie, but Matt Holliday is the only qualified player still batting over .400. Unfortunately he’s only had one home run and two RBI over his last eight games, but he is batting .375 with seven runs scored over that span. The rest will come.
  • Break up the Florida Marlins! With three straight wins, the Team That Should be in Vegas has seized the top spot in the NL East with the latest win coming courtesy of Chris Volstad‘s first quality start of the season. Leo Nunez already has seven saves and is putting together another good season, Mike Stanton has rebounded from that funk he was in and Hanley Ramirez had his first two-hit game since April 14. Overall, every Marlins’ pitcher has been fantastic as long as their last name doesn’t begin with a V (Volstad, Javier Vazquez) and I expect one of them *cough* Volstad *cough* to be rosterable in fantasy leagues.
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