Archive | February, 2011

Prospect Profile: Michael Pineda | SP | SEA

By on February 28, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

If you’ve been following along here at Baseball Professor, you might recall I profiled Dustin Ackley at the very end of December. Ackley ranked fifth in MLB.com’s 2011 Top 50 Prospects, but the Mariners also had another guy ranked right near the top. Checking in at number 13 is 22-year-old starting pitcher, Michael Pineda

After Felix Hernandez, Seattle doesn’t have much in their rotation – that is unless you consider Erik Bedard, Doug Fister, Luke French and Jason Vargas more than temporary stopgaps. Pineda is young, but Seattle needs him now.

And Pineda is talented enough to get a chance pretty soon. Since the Mariners don’t figure to be in contention this season, they’ll likely keep Pineda in the minors for a month or two to delay arbitration. That’s probably a smart move on two fronts: (1) why not have an extra year of control over a guy who could be your team’s next ace and (2) there’s no reason to rush a young pitcher to the big leagues out of spring training for a team that isn’t going to be any good. While those four replacement-level starters probably aren’t in Seattle’s long term plans (I don’t care how good Vargas seemed last year), they’re certainly good enough to eat up innings while the team weans Pineda into the rotation.

So, how good can Pineda be? Lookoutlanding.com did a very nice job profiling Pineda for both the 2011 season and beyond. While Pineda has demonstrated exceptional control for a young power pitcher (2.1 BB/9 in minors), he does have some trouble with left-handed batters. This comes from his lack of a true secondary out-pitch. Pineda has an exceptional fastball and is aggressive when throwing it, but his changeup and curveball are works in progress and at this point have not been wholly effective against left-handed batters. That article at Lookout Landing provides these splits:

vs. LHB: 3.5 BB/9, 9.4 K/9
vs. RHB: 1.6 BB/9, 12.3 K/9

Now the good news – Pineda gets to pitch in Safeco Field. We’ve long known that Safeco is a boon for pitchers (look what happened once Adrian Beltre left) but we can also break down the ballpark’s effects on both right- and left-handed batters individually. Note that for the following stats, 100 is league average. Over 100 benefits the hitter, under 100 benefits the pitcher:

(Hit Type: LHB/RHB)

Singles: 105/100
Doubles: 84/103
Triples: 60/97
Home Runs: 91/84

Safeco is extremely tough against left-handed batters when it comes to doubles and triples, and still very tough when it comes to homers (even though it’s tougher in this regard for right-handed batters). Pineda allowed a homer about every 18 innings in the minors (0.5 HR/9), so the added help keeping lefties off second and third base should only aid him where he struggles most.

But as good as Pineda is, he’s probably more of a fantasy sleeper in 2012. He’ll almost certainly start the year in the minors and Seattle will definitely monitor his innings throughout the whole season. He threw just 135.1 innings last year, and most clubs try to limit their young starters to 30 inning increases per year. That puts Pineda on track for around 160-165 innings for 2011, and a month or two in Triple-A will likely eat up nearly 40 innings. That puts Pineda on track for 120 innings with the Mariners at most, and he’ll probably fall a little short of that.

While Pineda’s good control rates and home ballpark make me optimistic about his ability to have an immediate impact (Mat Latos had a similar K:BB ratio in the minors, a power fastball and also pitches in a pitcher’s park) Seattle is in no rush to promote him. Keeper leagues should invest once he gets the call – and ideally right before – but Pineda’s value is limited in re-draft leagues. His WHIP figures to be low for a rookie and I could see him striking out 80-plus batters depending on how many innings he throws, but his win potential is low with the Mariners.

Since I like talking prospects, I’ll leave you with what Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik had to say about Pineda:

You’re talking about a 6-foot-5, 245-pound guy with a 100-mph fastball as a starting pitcher, which is very rare. He’s young, but he has all the earmarks of a top-of-the-order starter for years to come.

2011 Fantasy Projection

5-6 | 4.20 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 100 K | 115 IP | 7.80 K/9

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Notes From the Leadoff Spot

By on February 27, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Ian Kinsler | 2B | Texas Rangers

Texas manager Ron Washington recently announced that Ian Kinsler will lead off for the Rangers. Last year Kinsler batted third for the majority of the year while only registering 31 at-bats at the leadoff spot.

The move to the top of the order should improve Kinsler’s value because his stolen bases and runs will increase while only suffering a decrease in RBI. The last time Kinsler batted leadoff exclusively was in 2008 when he scored one run every 1.19 games and stole a base once every 4.65 games. If you compare that to last season Kinsler scored one run every 1.41 games and stole a base once every 6.87 games.

It’s also worth noting that Kinsler batted .319 in 2008, the only year he finished with a batting average over .300. Feel free to move him up your draft board but don’t go nuts considering his injury history.

Also said by Washington was that Elvis Andrus will bat second and not at the bottom of the order. With a spot at the top of the lineup, 90-plus runs isn’t out of the question. However, he may not steal as much as he would if he bats eighth or ninth since the team won’t want him getting thrown out in front of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre.

Denard Span | OF | Minnesota Twins

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire believes the reason for Denard Span’s decline last season was the result of playing in too many games (153). Gardenhire laments that “I didn’t have a leadoff guy without Span there.” But that could change this year. According to Kelsie Smith of the Pioneer Press, Gardenhire has “no problem” batting Tsuyoshi Nishioka or Alexi Casilla first.

If Gardenhire gives Span more days off, or decides to bat Nishioka or Casilla leadoff if Span continues to struggle, then Span could see a dramatic decrease in runs. Since Span doesn’t hit home runs, it would be a significant blow to his value if he’s scoring fewer runs.

John Jaso | C | Tampa Bay Rays

Rays manager Joe Maddon raised a lot of eyebrows last season when he batted John Jaso leadoff. Well it looks like Maddon will be doing the same again this year despite the presence of Johnny Damon.

Jaso has already batted leadoff for both of the Rays exhibition games and Maddon came away impressed with Jaso’s first at-bat, one in which he saw six pitches before singling on the seventh. Said Maddon regarding the first inning when Jaso singled and later scored on a sac fly, “everything we talk about showed up in that first at-bat.”

While Jaso is no speed demon, he has a knack for getting on base. Despite a batting average of .263 last year, Jaso had an on-base percentage of .372, thanks to a walk percentage of 14.6 percent. If Jaso can stick in the leadoff spot he will have a significant advantage in the runs category over his fellow catchers.

Joe Mauer scored the most runs at the catcher position last year with 88 and Victor Martinez finished second with 64. With Jaso’s high on-base percentage and his spot atop the lineup, he could finish the year with more runs than any other catcher except for Mauer.

After the top 10 catchers are gone, you may want to look Jaso’s way. His solid batting average and elite ability to score runs from the catcher position will make him a lot more valuable than someone like John Buck or Miguel Olivo.

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Washington Nationals: 2011 Fantasy Team Preview

By on February 27, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

This past offseason was an odd one for the Nationals. They signed Jayson Werth to a huge deal, kicked offers around for Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke and then came back to reality. Hey, these are the Nationals right? They have some decent pieces on offense, but their pitching staff is very mediocre. A lot will rely on Jordan Zimmermann to anchor that staff and maybe Livan Hernandez can harness some of that luck he used so much of in 2010.

This team probably won’t be sniffing the postseason, but they could help your team not just sniff the playoffs, but take it out for a nice seafood dinner and never call it again.

Guys I’m Drafting

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - I have Zimmerman as my fifth third baseman and a top 30 player overall so you know I’m on the bandwagon. Chris put him up against Alex Rodriguez and, while he didn’t come out on top, the margin was close. Zimmerman has steadily increased his K:BB ratio over the last three seasons, which can help explain his bump in average (.283 to .307) over the same time span. He’s about as safe an option you will find at the third base position, which is why he is worth a third round pick in all leagues.

Ian Desmond, SS - What you have in Desmond is an inverse of Alexei Ramirez. What that means is, where Ramirez has 20-plus home run potential, Desmond has that in stolen bases. Where Ramirez has 15 stolen base potential, Desmond has it in home runs. Ramirez has a significant edge in runs and RBI, but I think Desmond can close that gap if he can work his way to the top part of the Nationals’ lineup. Basically what you have in Desmond is a player with Ramirez upside at a discounted price. I’m buying.

Drew Storen, RP - We all know that I strongly advise against drafting closers early, which is why I love Storen this year. Storen has the full-time gig and can strikeout close to one batter per inning. The control (3.58 BB/9) leaves a little to be desired, but hopefully he improves on that in his second season as a pro. I’ll pass on the elite guys and take Storen, who should get 30 saves with good peripheral numbers.

Guys I’m Not Drafting

Jayson Werth, OF - I’ve never been a Werth fan. Sure the power/speed combo is nice, but Werth is going to a team with minimal playoff hopes and just signed a monster contract in the offseason. I’m not saying, but…yeah I’m thinking what you’re thinking. He has a .263 batting average away from Philadelphia so I wouldn’t expect another .290 season from him.

Nyjer Morgan, OF - Listen, if all you want is steals then by all means take Morgan. I, however, like my guys to contribute in more than one category. Morgan bats leadoff, but his lineup isn’t great and therefore he isn’t a huge threat to score 100, or even 90, runs. His on-base percentage was an anemic .314 last year and he possess no power skills whatsoever. Move along, there’s nothing to see here.

Any pitcher not named Jordan - Let’s just name the four starters: Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jason Marquis and Tom Gorzelanny. Ok, you back from the toilet bowl yet? Let’s try to forget that happened.

In all honesty, Gorzelanny is the only pitcher who intrigues me because of his strikeout potential (K/9 of 7.86 and 9.00 in his last two seasons) and the fact that his FIPs of 3.91 and 3.92 over the last two seasons show that he has pitched rather effectively. Now, he needs better control and to actually put up the great numbers that his peripheral stats are hinting towards before I consider taking him in a draft. Oh, and that Stephen Strasburg guy? Not this year.

Sleepers

Jordan Zimmermann, SP - I covered my feelings about Zimmermann being a sleeper in 2011.

Danny Espinosa, 2B - Bryan professed his love for Espinosa in his post where he crowned him with sleeper status. And I have to say, I’m on board with what he’s saying.

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Don't Hate the Player, Hate the ADP: Robinson Cano

By on February 26, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

There are a couple of ways you can tell that winter is almost over.

The snow outside is slowly transforming into slush and cold rain (which is just as annoying), the warmer states start getting flooded with spring training talk and…mock drafts. The fantasy nerds are shaking their heads in agreement while everyone else is looking for an object to throw at me through their computer screen.

It’s finally time.

Mock drafts are in full gear, which means we have plenty of data to analyze, dissect and argue over. So it’s only natural that we bring back one of my favorite article series, “Don’t Hate the Player, Hate the ADP.”

The title is an obvious ripoff of the saying made famous by so many rappers, “Don’t hate the player, hate the game,” but it holds true nonetheless. Sometimes there is a player, who we would all love to have on our team, but the price is way too high. One of those guys for me is Robinson Cano.

How can I hate on Cano? Well, it’s actually it’s fairly difficult once I turn off my Red Sox fandom for a second. Cano contributes elite numbers for a second basement in 4-of-5 hitting categories. The only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases. So again, why am I picking on Cano?

Well let’s remember the point of this article, I’m not picking on Cano, I’m picking on his ADP. Right now it sits at 7.4, which ranks sixth among all MLB players. That’s the problem.

Second base is deeper than you think this year. You have players like Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, Gordon Beckham, Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson going a full 9-11 rounds later in drafts. Yeah, I know they aren’t as good as Cano, but definitely serviceable at the position.

If I’m drafting in the middle of the first round I want to cover the scarcest of positions and cover as many categories as possible, especially in rotisserie leagues. The only exceptions I’ll make are Albert Pujols (duh) and a sober Miguel Cabrera. Here is my top 10 as we currently stand today:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Hanley Ramirez

3. Evan Longoria

4. Troy Tulowitzki

5. Carl Crawford

6. David Wright

7. Miguel Cabrera

8. Ryan Braun

9. Carlos Gonzalez

10. Robinson Cano

So I have Cano as a borderline top 10 player and I wouldn’t fault you for wanting Joey Votto over him either. Cano is a solid player, but he’s only got four tools, unlike many of the players in the top 10 who contribute in all five categories.

There’s a lot to like about Cano, but can he really get better than 2010? I view .320/103/29/109/3 as a damn good season, but that’s the best he’s going to be. He’s not developing 35-home run power or any kind of speed on the bases.

His 7.4 ADP is only 3 spots higher than my ranking of 10, which may not seem like a big deal, but practice in a mock draft and take Wright instead of Cano. You’ll see what happens later on. You won’t be reaching for an Adrian Beltre in the fourth round because you fear having to start Aramis Ramirez or Mark Reynolds at third and you will still have your choice of several good options at second base in the middle rounds.

Again, this isn’t a knock on Cano—he brings elite production. Except I am trying to knock him down a peg…or four.

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Florida Marlins: 2011 Fantasy Team Preview

By on February 26, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The Florida Marlins are going to be a fun team to watch this year. Combine the league’s best shortstop with some power arms, a starting outfield with the average age of 23 and a first baseman who received first place votes for rookie of the year and you have a team that’s not ready to concede the NL East to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Marlins will undoubtedly provide some fantasy treasure but beware of the players who turn out to be fool’s gold. To help determine which players to draft and which to avoid, here is a preview of the 2011 Florida Marlins.

Guys I Like

Hanley Ramirez, SS – You already know that Ramirez is worthy of an early first round pick but is he worthy of the number one overall pick? I say yes and here’s why. Say you take Albert Pujols with the first pick and then nab Elvis Andrus later on to be your shortstop (ADP 80.2). But then you realize you could have taken Kendry Morales (ADP 75.7) instead of Andrus if you had taken Ramirez over Pujols earlier. Now tell me with a straight face that you would rather have Pujols/Andrus than Ramirez/Morales. I know I most certainly take the latter.

Josh Johnson, SP – Johnson might have the best pure stuff in the National League but his durability will always be in question. It’s tough to project 200 innings from him but when he does pitch you can expect a sub-three ERA, a low WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Johnson as my number one starter but if he’s your number two, consider yourself lucky.

Mike Stanton, OF – Stanton’s power is jaw-dropping. At 20 years old he hit 22 home runs in a mere 359 at-bats. His slugging percentage was .507 and his ISO was .248. The only troubling sign for Stanton is his propensity to strikeout which does not bode well for his batting average. The good news is that his walk rate was a healthy 8.6 percent last year and he has a reputation of being a fast learner. It’s entirely possible that Stanton hits 35 home runs this year and approaches 100 RBI.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Last year, Sanchez batted .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI. Not bad for a first baseman, but even better considering he was a rookie. He showed exceptional command of the strike zone for a young player with a walk rate of 8.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 17.7 percent. Sanchez has the ability to develop more power as some of the 37 doubles he hit last year could translate into a few more home runs.

Ricky Nolasco, SP – Count me as part of Nolasco’s dwindling fan club. Despite two straight disappointing seasons his xFIP was 3.28 in 2009 and 3.55 in 2010. Nolasco is also developing pin-point control, lowering his walks per nine innings from 2.14 to 1.88. If he can harness some of that control and turn it into command, then he’s sure to cut down on the home runs that have been plaguing him. Add in over eight strikeouts per nine innings and Nolasco is someone I’m hoping to get on the cheap.

Guys I Don’t Like

Javier Vazquez, SP – Be careful not to blindly draft Vazquez thinking that the move to the National League will bring instant success. If Vazquez can’t find the velocity on his fastball (88.7 MPH last year vs. 91.1 MPH the year before) then he’s not likely to be any more effective than he was with the Yankees.

Chris Coghlan, OF – If only he were still a second baseman. Some will remember Coghlan’s 2009 rookie of the year campaign and draft him with confidence but really, he’s not that valuable as an outfielder. He hasn’t hit double digit home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in either of his first two years and his batting average plummeted all the way down to .268 last year. The only way Coghlan provides a lot of value is if he can bat north of .320 but he’ll be lucky to top .300.

John Buck, C – The power is real. Even though Buck hit 20 home runs, the most of his career, neither his home run to fly ball ratio of 14.7% percent or ISO of .208 were career highs. The reason I don’t like Buck this year is because there is no way he’s going to duplicate a .281 batting average. His abnormally high batting average was propelled by a .335 BABIP – too high for someone with a line drive percentage of only 16.1 percent. Since Buck’s isn’t exactly fleet of foot, I think it’s safe to say that his batting average was mostly a product of luck.

Sleeper

Logan Morrison, OF – George Fitopoulos already hyped him up so I won’t go into detail here but suffice to say, we both believe his plate discipline will lead to early success, making Morrison a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

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Mike Moustakas: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 25, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

Remember when Ryan Braun made is Major League debut in late May of 2007? In just 113 games that year, Braun batted .324 with 34 homers, 97 RBI and 15 steals. His season totals were outstanding, but his per-game production was off the charts.

No, I don’t think Royals’ prospect Mike Moustakas will come close to what Braun did in 2007, but he is the future of the franchise at the hot corner and there’s no way Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit or any other Kansas City infielder is standing in his way. When Moustakas is ready, he’ll play.

And given his specific set of tools, I expect he’ll play well.

Unlike most corner infield prospects, Moustakas has shown the ability to consistently put the ball in play. His strikeout rates in his three full years in the minors have been manageable until he really broke through last season, striking out just 12.5 percent of the time. Combine Moustakas’ ability to make contact with his ability to hit for extreme power (36 HR, .630 SLG, ISO over .300) and you have the makings of an impact player right away.

My guess is Moustakas racks up over 400 at-bats this season. After a down 2009, Moustakas split 2010 evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, dominating at both stops. Assuming he starts 2011 at Triple-A and performs well again, Kansas City will have no choice but to give him a shot. What else would he have to prove? Alex Gordon has already been shifted to left field to make room for Moustakas, and the Royals don’t have anyone really blocking him. Aviles is a nice guy to have in the lineup, but I could see a scenario where he moves to second base and Chris Getz gets the boot.

Moustakas is not a player to draft unless you play in an extremely deep mixed league or an AL-only format, but once he gets his chance he’ll immediately become one of the best corner infield options in the league, especially in a down year at the third base position.

2011 Fantasy Projection

60 R | .275 AVG | 22 HR | 70 RBI | 2 SB | 425 AB

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5 Big Questions: 2011 Atlanta Braves

By on February 25, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We here at Baseball Professor think about our readers first and ourselves second—albeit a close second. That’s why we decided to reach out to other bloggers (who follow their respective teams more closely than we do) to give you a deeper look into the important issues every fantasy owner has to come to grips with this season. Our ninth installment is with the Atlanta Braves and comes courtesy of Peter Hjort from the Capitol Avenue Club.

For a complete trip around the Majors, check out the other 2011 team previews in this series.

1) After one year, Jason Heyward looks like the real deal. He already has the plate discipline of a seasoned veteran and is on the fast track to be one of the game’s best outfielders. Am I right, or am I right?

Yes, but with a caveat. So far he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for an entire professional season. The thumb injury last year was more of a 1-time event, but he’s suffered from nagging muscle strains/pulls throughout his pro career. If he stays healthy for a full season there’s no telling what he’s capable of, but we’d like to see him do it before we call him the next franchise savior.

2) The Braves have another big-time prospect on the verge of breaking into the starting lineup in Freddie Freeman. When do you think he will be called up and what can we expect from him when he does?

He’ll be the opening day, regular first baseman. I wouldn’t expect a whole lot in 2011. A .270-.280 average (there’s a lot of inherent error with batting average, but that’s my least-error projection), 15-20 homers, next to no steals. He’ll be hitting towards the bottom of the lineup for most of the year, so I wouldn’t expect many runs or RBI’s. I definitely wouldn’t draft him in a mixed league and I’d only draft him in an NL-only if my strategy is to punt first base (not a good one, IMO). Keeper league owners might consider taking him in the last round, but remember he doesn’t have big-time power potential, limiting his upside at first base. Eventually he’ll be a pretty good player, but a lot of the reasons he’ll be good for Atlanta won’t help your fantasy team.

3) There is a lot of excitement surrounding Craig Kimbrel as the potential closer and the reason for that excitement is his high strikeout rate (17.42 K/9) last year. Unfortunately, Jonny Venters proves to be in the mix as well and could be just as effective. Fantasy players hate closers in platoon situations so please sort out the situation for us.

I expect Craig Kimbrel to get most of the save opportunities. Fredi Gonzalez has said he’s not adverse to using a sort of platoon in the 9th innings: Venters going against lefties, Kimbrel against righties. I don’t expect that to last very long, though. Eventually he’ll probably revert to his old habits of having his relief pitchers in defined roles, and I expect Kimbrel to be the guy he chooses once he settles on a “closer”. Even if Venters leaves camp as the regular closer, Kimbrel is still the guy I’m targeting in fantasy drafts because a) his strikeouts will help whether he’s closing or not and b) when it’s all said and done I still think Kimbrel ends up with more saves. Do be careful, Kimbrel could end up being a WHIP-killer given his very small track record of throwing strikes.

4) Jair Jurrjens is definitely not as good as his 2.60 ERA in 2009 suggested and his 6.38 career strikeout rate and 3.24 career walk rate leave much to be desired to fantasy owners especially. What do you expect from Jurrjens coming off a knee injury?

I just hope we see Jair Jurrjens healthy and pitching every fifth day. Pitching–especially starting–is tough, and having an entire rotation make it through the year without injuries is close to unprecedented, but I don’t consider Jurrjens to be any more injury-prone than a typical major-league starter. He just had a bad year in that regard. If he’s healthy and taking his turn in the rotation every time, the Braves can expect an ERA in the 3.60-4.00 range (again, with inherent variance). While that’s useful for Atlanta, he’s not a guy I’d target in mixed leagues because of his strikeout rate. If you do end up relying on Jurrjens and he goes down, be sure to swipe Brandon Beachy off waivers, he’s next in line to start and nearly as useful as Jurrjens if given the innings.

5) We all thought Chipper Jones was going to retire last year, but he’s back! What can we seriously expect out of ol’ Chipper this year? He can’t play more than 120 game can he?

I kind of doubt he can play much more than 120 games, but that’s all Atlanta needs out of him. He says he’s going to be ready for opening day, I hope he’s right (and have no reason to think he isn’t). Regarding his performance, he was exceptionally hit-unlucky in 2009 and 2010, I expect him to bounce back in the batting average department going forward. You can’t count on him for much power, but if your league uses on base percentage as a scoring category Chipper is absolutely a must-own player. He’s hitting third for a good offensive team, too, so if you miss out on the top third basemen and Pedro Alvarez, Chipper is who I’d target as my third baseman in the late rounds. Even in a mixed, standard league.

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