In the conversation of 2010′s disappointments, Aaron Hill‘s name is at the top of the list, and deservedly so. Hill’s 2009 season, where he hit .286 and mashed 36 home runs with 108 RBI, earned him an ADP of 77.4 according to ESPN.
In 2010, Hill rewarded those who drafted him with 26 home runs, but he only hit .205 with 68 RBI.
When there is such a drastic change in batting average performance, it’s usually because of line-drive percentage. Lo-and-behold, Hill only hit line drives 10 percent of the time in 2010 when he maintained a 21-percent rate for the first five seasons of his career. The huge drop in line drives contributed to his .196 BABIP in 2010, which is much lower than his prior career BABIP of .307.
One reason for Hill’s sudden drop in line-drive percentage was his pitch selection. In 2010, he swung at 31.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, up 4.8 points from 2009. On those swings, he made contact 70.9 percent of the time, up 10.1 points from 2009. Increased contact on bad pitches—it’s harder to hit line drives when you’re rolling over on sliders in the dirt—is one of the reasons Hill’s line-drive percentage dipped, and thus, dropped his batting average.
Pitchers probably took note after 2009 that Hill was hitting most of his home runs to left field. While I don’t know for sure, it is safe to assume that a lot of those swings on pitches outside the strike zone came on pitches thrown outside. If Hill can lay off those pitches and force opposing pitchers to come inside, Hill could be in for a bounce back.
2011 Fantasy Outlook
While Hill’s plate approach suffered a bit in 2010, there were some signs that Hill could approach his 2009 level again. First, Hill posted a career-high 7.1 walk percentage, and while his strikeouts rose to 16.1 percent, that is more around his career norm. Also, Hill’s .189 ISO showed that his power stayed despite the drop in batting average. He maintained a HR/FB rate over 10 percent, which is a more sustainable rate than his 14.9 mark in 2009, but also shows that his 36 home runs were not a total fluke in 2009.
Hill was one of five second basemen to hit over 20 home runs, and don’t expect Kelly Johnson to be among those names in 2011. With so few second basemen hitting for power these days, Hill has some added value in fantasy.
The biggest question regarding Hill’s projected value is whether he can up his line-drive rate to a more respectable level in the future. If he can go back to his levels pre-2009, Hill should have no trouble going back to being one of the better second basemen in fantasy baseball. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments, and while pitchers got the best of him in 2010, I expect Hill to come back and return close to his 2009 form.
The Blue Jays already have hitters such as Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Vernon Wells at the top of the lineup, so Hill should have plenty of RBI opportunities and should look more like his 2009 self, rather than the shell we saw in 2010.
2011 Fantasy Projection
.278 | 82 R | 26 HR | 91 RBI | 3 SB
